Post-budget polling has emphatically confirmed a second major shift in public opinion since the election, the first being a strikingly early dip in the new government’s fortunes in November, leaving the opposition with a narrow lead when the dust had settled. With every pollster but ReachTEL having produced results in the wake of last Tuesday’s budget, the latest landslip looks even bigger than the first, and it sends the Coalition into territory that was all too familiar to Labor during its tumultuous second term in office. The damage was done by Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan, with a small amount of the edge taken off by more moderate results from Galaxy and Essential Research. Even so, Labor now has a lead on the primary vote for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business in late 2012, even taking into account that the Greens have retained a healthy share of the vote, perhaps finding a new equilibrium with their head just above double figures. Also continuing to make hay out of the exodus from the Coalition is the Palmer United Party, which this week reaches a new high of 7.0%.
No less spectacular is the latest update on leadership ratings, for which near-identical sets of data have emerged this week courtesy of Newspoll and Nielsen. The slump in Tony Abbott’s standing which had become evident over the previous fortnight has continued apace, to the extent that I have had to increase the range of the y-axis on the net satisfaction chart to accommodate it. This puts Abbott at a level Julia Gillard would only have known in a particularly bad week. Even more encouragingly for Labor, Bill Shorten’s ratings are on an upward swing, putting him back into net positive territory after three months below par. What had previously been a steady narrowing trend in Tony Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister has sharply accelerated, to the extent of putting Shorten substantially ahead – an uncommon achievement for an Opposition Leader.
The state projections this week see the distinction in state swings even out, most notably in the case of Queensland where the swing to Labor got out of hand for a few weeks there. A considerable influence here was the latest Nielsen breakdown, which provided the first presentable set of figures I had seen for the Coalition in Queensland for some time. This may suggest that the budget backlash in that state was muted by the fact that Labor had less slack to take up, although there is no doubt also a large element of the statistical noise to which state breakdowns are inevitably prone. The upshot is that the Coalition’s position on the Queensland seat projection actually improves by four seats this week, testament in part to the state’s super-abundance of marginal seats. Offsetting this are bumper gains for Labor in other states – four seats in New South Wales, putting Bennelong, Gilmore and Macquarie on the table in addition to all the seats lost in September; three in marginals-starved Victoria, adding Casey and Dunkley to the more familiar targets of Corangamite, Deakin and La Trobe; and one each in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania.
In other BludgerTrack news, you now have the chance to put Labor’s poll surge in somewhat broader perspective thanks to the retrospective poll tracking displayed on the sidebar, which at present encompasses the previous three terms, with plans to go back to the start of the Howard era in due course. For this you can think the sleuth work of Kevin Bonham, who has provided me with Nielsen data going back to 1996. Taking into account the more readily accessible archives of Newspoll and Morgan, this should eventually give me three pollsters to play with over the totality of the intended period. For the time being, the display encompasses the familiar poll aggregate from the previous term; the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government, which also includes Essential Research and a smattering of Galaxy to supplement the three aforementioned pollsters; and the Howard government’s final term in office.
Jnumbers, yes but can we trust her? 🙂
@1451 – she hasn’t voted Liberal since 2004 😛 … she thought Latham was a thug.
What we should take away from all of this is that people have a hard time imagining things that are not already staring them right in the face. If you can’t see it or touch it, it’s not real.
If all of Abbott’s contradictions are to be resolved in the far off future, who can say if they’re so contradictory after all. You won’t know until you try? Right?
Well now we’re at the point of trying and finding – surprise, surprise – that those contradictions we had hand waved away are real after all.
1449
J341983
Good to see, J…
Oh dear, #TonysMovieNight number one on twitter (and The Kouk is some).
[Prime Minister Tony Abbott has accused The Guardian website of trying to dig up dirt on his daughter.]
It was New Matilda you cretin Abbott, at least blame the correct publication. NM needs all the readers it can get. You attacking them will help.
[she thought Latham was a thug.]
Was she a taxi driver ? 🙂
Libertarian Unionist
Thanks so much for the link re csp storage.
I was trapped in a car this morning with Alan Jones on the radio ranting anout renewable energy projects, wind turbines, solar power. He was in full voice about subsidies to these
projects when climate change had been shown to be a complete furphy.
He spoke to James ?, a climate denier in a grand scale. Listening to them was a sad experience as the others in the car loved it.
I’m going to
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/abengoa-says-csp-storage-will-beat-baseload-gas-2020
I have asked before but had no reply yet…does anyone know whether a PM has recovered from a net-sat @ -29% and been able to win the subsequent election…?
confessions, they tried the calming stuff first, with their “we’re all in this together”, “hey look politicians are taking a hit too”, etc.
It hasn’t worked so they’re shifting gears.
[Michelle’s glasses are for hindsight, not foresight. ]
I like it 🙂
She invested sooo much of her credibility earnt over a long career in going to bat for abbott.
Backed the wrong one – like so many voters.
LU
Damn tablet didn’t let me finish 🙂
I’m going to send the article to Jones and ask why he isn’t investing in this excellent opportunity.
I thought New Matilda had already decided to shut up shop? Someone linked to the farewell editorial a couple of weeks ago.
[And just so you know, I’m going to keep calling out sexual abuse of minors. If you don’t like to read that stuff because it messes with your religious tendencies, then you’re always welcome to scroll past my comments.]
And so you should keep calling out I encourage you to do so. It is just much of what you actually say isn’t calling out abuse and IMHO is counterproductive to our joint cause. And I’m sorry I don’t share your irrational total hated of contempt for and intolerance toward people of faith, it is just I detested so many fundy Christian beliefs over the last 3 decades that I tend to rile against their kind of belief even when coming from someone lacking a faith. Obviously I understand that being a good solid progressive atheist entitles one to be intolerant and hate filled towards whomever one disagrees with and that makes you nothing at all like the fundy Christians whose beliefs I struggle to agree with.
The LNP have started a fight that will last for months and end in one defeat after another. But other than pulling back and dropping their budget, there’s nothing they can do other than try to defend the indefensible. Their polls will likely just go on getting worse and worse as, one by one, their policies get picked apart in the Senate.
Honestly – I’ve not known a PM to have such a negative net stat in a first term… so it’s hard to judge lol
briefly+
Our lord and master Bilbo would be “da man” to answer that question.
DN:
Their messaging was all over the shop even then. Contrasted visuals of Hockey pronouncing doom and gloom for households while appearing in front of plush backdrops. Then the cigar smoking. Cormann making a hash of it all with silly, meaningless booklets, then the Hockey dancing, and of course the rest is history.
Abbott appeared to be wheeled out to try to salvage something but instead messed it up even further. It really has been woeful, and a far cry from the seamless communication they deployed leading into the election.
fess
apparently someone stepped up to the plate to keep it going.
[I thought New Matilda had already decided to shut up shop? Someone linked to the farewell editorial a couple of weeks ago.]
Fess I believe the Editor has left to go to Crikey
Baby Hunt in trouble as well it seems.
[One of the world’s leading investment banks is refusing to consider funding the expansion of the Abbot Point coalmine in Queensland because it is not assured the Great Barrier Reef would not be damaged.
UNESCO has condemned the Federal Government’s decision to allow 3 million cubic metres of dredge spoil to be dumped in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park as part of the expansion.
“We observe that there is no consensus between UNESCO and the Australian Government regarding the expansion of Abbot Point,” Deutsche Bank said. “Since our guidance requires such a consensus as a minimum, we would not consider a financing request.”]
Looks like the editor was the problem there, then …
@briefly/1465
You’d hope their policies get picked apart in the senate, there are some things already not needed to go through the senate and having being axed or funding cuts (Discrimination Commissioner, and DSP reviews starting in July).
The NBN is also a lost cause.
[I thought New Matilda had already decided to shut up shop? Someone linked to the farewell editorial a couple of weeks ago.]
It has been crowdfunded into a rebirth, with a more aggressive editorial stance it seems.
briefly at #1459
Try here – I’ll have a go at checking but I’m not reliable.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/opinion-polls-2/opinion-polls-2/
When money hungry bunch of conservative bankers draw a line in the sand, and our Government won’t, we have a real problem.
J341983
[Honestly – I’ve not known a PM to have such a negative net stat in a first term]
First term ?!!! Lordy this is the first bit of the first year of the first term.
confessions, fair enough. Even if they’re following much the same rule book as before, I agree their delivery has been sloppy.
[… meaningless booklets …]
They did those during the campaign too :D.
WWP:
Whatever. The RC is real, it is happening, and it is highlighting horrific cases of the abuse of the vulnerable. I get as a catholic that you want to get in people’s faces when they (justifiably IMO) rain shit on the church for allowing this stuff to go on unchecked for decades. I don’t agree with it. That isn’t me being abusive and displaying irrational hatred towards people of faith, it’s me being a human being displaying horror at what was meted out to other human beings, and being appalled at those institutions for deliberately choosing to cover it up, even protecting and hiding perpetrators from authorities!
While the RC continues, people (including me) are going to link to reports about its various hearings. This is historic stuff. If you don’t like to read what the RC finds, or read the genuine human responses of commenters as we sit appalled at the injustices perpetrated on vulnerable people, then my advice is simply don’t.
1473
zoidlord
Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 7:25 pm | Permalink
I know. Some things will be lost until there’s a change of Government.
Why we have a by-election in Stafford in a nut-shell.
[Dr Davis said today it was “with sadness that I have advised the Speaker of my resignation”.
“The passage of recent Government legislation affecting critical aspects of our democracy goes contrary to my value system and that of the majority of my electorate,” he said in a statement on his website.
“I would never have stood for Parliament on such a platform, nor do I believe I would have been elected.]
thanks fredex
The new New Matilda is looking good so far. It had to either fold or reinvigorate itself to keep up with its competitors. Seems to have chosen the latter path.
After a quickish look at Newspoll negative netsats it seems PJK scored -36 in June 1992 and went on to win the election of 1993.
“True believers’ election?
DN:
Very true. This mob seem to excel at that.
Thank you, Dr Davis.
@fredex/1484
That was against Fightback with John Hewson wasn’t?
poroti –
http://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/about-the-city/how-we-work/elections-and-wards/Pages/forthcoming-elections.aspx
UKIP no chance even if residents voted for them. Business/Corporations also vote in CoL elections.
I can’t imagine that many resident actual denizens of areas like Cripplegate would be silly enough to vote for Nigel’s mob.
Newman shows why he has pissed a huge majority up against the wall.
[Mr Newman responded to the decision by suggesting he disagreed with Dr Davis’s decision to quit.
Dr Davis’s resignation letter to the Speaker is dated yesterday, but the Premier says he only found out today.
“I found out about an hour and a half, two hours ago,” Mr Newman said this afternoon.
“He hasn’t called me and I just make that point that I’m afraid this speaks volumes about what’s been going on.]
Hey Numb Nuts if the Speaker didn’t advise you its not Dr Davis’ fault, maybe Fionahates your guts like every other former Nat?
zoidlord
Yeah I think so, I opted out of politics for a while around that time so my memory is fuzzier than usual.
I think that was the election where Ray Martin stuffed Hewson with an extended dissection of the GST and the price of cake and Hewson fluffed it badly.
CTar1
Only joking.My default position is that denizens of your part of Londinium would not vote for the likes of Non U chaps like Nigel.
I know people here like Houston but he’s looking like a patsy here to me. He’s gone off half cocked and tied the government line.
[UNDERWATER scientists have labelled the search for MH370 a “debacle” and say Prime Minister Tony Abbott was playing politics when he prematurely announced the black box pingers had been found.
The acoustic experts, who do not wish to be identified, said the four crucial signals detected by a US pinger locator were almost certainly not from the missing Malaysian Airlines plane’s black boxes, but from another man-made source.]
I should add that one would expect Abbott to look like a fool but I didn’t expect Houston to join him.
Newspoll recorded some terrible net-sat results for Keating from May 1992 (+29/-61) through to August 1992 (+24/-67) before they improved a little and then reversed in 1993 (+26/-63 in February). Following the election in March they declined to their nadir in August 1993 (+17/-74).
Howard also had some terrible scores, the worst being +28/-64 in March 2001, a ranking that was quite temporary and from which he recovered. From 2001 on, Howard seldom recorded notably poor net-sat results and actually had a positive net sat ranking when defeated in 2007.
Julia Gillard also recorded net-sat scores around -30 (+27/-61 in July 2012) and Rudd’s net-sat fell to +33/-58 by the time of the 2013 election.
So both Keating and Howard recorded worse net-sat results than is now being reported for Abbott and still went on to win elections.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/opinion-polls-2/opinion-polls-2/
Dio:
The whole communications approach by the Aust govt to the MH370 search has been bizarre to say the least. Announcing one thing in the morning, only to have it undermined by evening. Abbott making announcements at the drop of a hat, even in parliament. Just weird.
@fredex/1490
Yup, you can find it on Youtube.
I think it this one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtkixGuCwaY – Part 1.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHHEGpwaEjc – Part 2.
Tony Abbott has done a worse job than Hewston.
Two great points raised on radio today and yesterday:
1) Jon Faine on 774 had someone call in who asked, regarding the $20b medical research fund, who owns the IP to any patents made as a result of the research? With the CSIRO, it’s pretty clear, but what of this?
2) Triple J Hack yesterday, someone asked Chrissy Pyne, since the HECS debt compound, won’t someone on maternity leave bear the brunt as a technically still employed person, and be greatly affected by the even great result of higher interest rates?
Regarding the netsat thing and Keating being the last to have that negative and winning against Hewson.
1/ Abbott is on the Fightback Side
2/ Abbott is no Keating
[1495
confessions
The whole communications approach by the Aust govt to the MH370 search has been bizarre to say the least. Announcing one thing in the morning, only to have it undermined by evening. Abbott making announcements at the drop of a hat, even in parliament. Just weird.]
Abbott couldn’t help himself. He has a very childish idea of leadership, straight from Boy’s Own.
briefly:
I’m not sure that historical references are necessarily illustrative at this point in time. We seem to be seeing significant numbers of voters leaking away from major parties, certainly if the PUP vote and Senate results mean anything. I’m guessing that this suggests that incumbency is even more salient come election day.