Post-budget polling has emphatically confirmed a second major shift in public opinion since the election, the first being a strikingly early dip in the new government’s fortunes in November, leaving the opposition with a narrow lead when the dust had settled. With every pollster but ReachTEL having produced results in the wake of last Tuesday’s budget, the latest landslip looks even bigger than the first, and it sends the Coalition into territory that was all too familiar to Labor during its tumultuous second term in office. The damage was done by Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan, with a small amount of the edge taken off by more moderate results from Galaxy and Essential Research. Even so, Labor now has a lead on the primary vote for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business in late 2012, even taking into account that the Greens have retained a healthy share of the vote, perhaps finding a new equilibrium with their head just above double figures. Also continuing to make hay out of the exodus from the Coalition is the Palmer United Party, which this week reaches a new high of 7.0%.
No less spectacular is the latest update on leadership ratings, for which near-identical sets of data have emerged this week courtesy of Newspoll and Nielsen. The slump in Tony Abbott’s standing which had become evident over the previous fortnight has continued apace, to the extent that I have had to increase the range of the y-axis on the net satisfaction chart to accommodate it. This puts Abbott at a level Julia Gillard would only have known in a particularly bad week. Even more encouragingly for Labor, Bill Shorten’s ratings are on an upward swing, putting him back into net positive territory after three months below par. What had previously been a steady narrowing trend in Tony Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister has sharply accelerated, to the extent of putting Shorten substantially ahead – an uncommon achievement for an Opposition Leader.
The state projections this week see the distinction in state swings even out, most notably in the case of Queensland where the swing to Labor got out of hand for a few weeks there. A considerable influence here was the latest Nielsen breakdown, which provided the first presentable set of figures I had seen for the Coalition in Queensland for some time. This may suggest that the budget backlash in that state was muted by the fact that Labor had less slack to take up, although there is no doubt also a large element of the statistical noise to which state breakdowns are inevitably prone. The upshot is that the Coalition’s position on the Queensland seat projection actually improves by four seats this week, testament in part to the state’s super-abundance of marginal seats. Offsetting this are bumper gains for Labor in other states – four seats in New South Wales, putting Bennelong, Gilmore and Macquarie on the table in addition to all the seats lost in September; three in marginals-starved Victoria, adding Casey and Dunkley to the more familiar targets of Corangamite, Deakin and La Trobe; and one each in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania.
In other BludgerTrack news, you now have the chance to put Labor’s poll surge in somewhat broader perspective thanks to the retrospective poll tracking displayed on the sidebar, which at present encompasses the previous three terms, with plans to go back to the start of the Howard era in due course. For this you can think the sleuth work of Kevin Bonham, who has provided me with Nielsen data going back to 1996. Taking into account the more readily accessible archives of Newspoll and Morgan, this should eventually give me three pollsters to play with over the totality of the intended period. For the time being, the display encompasses the familiar poll aggregate from the previous term; the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government, which also includes Essential Research and a smattering of Galaxy to supplement the three aforementioned pollsters; and the Howard government’s final term in office.
“@SwannyQLD: Abbott creepily winking. Newman labelling Logan residents bogans. What class acts these tories are…”
Swannie is on fire this week 🙂
[1102
Libertarian Unionist
PM: Medicare services are certainly not free for the taxpayer.. It’s perfectly reasonable to put a price signal on the system
{snip}
No idea – an economic illiterate.]
With an economics degree.
His parents really got their money’s worth there.
guytaur
And it is absolutely nothing to do with Climate Change!
[ @joeobrien24: Hockey calls on ALP and others to recognise the Budget has to be fixed .. “if you’ve got better ideas, put them on the table”. ]
Joe is obviously in the crazy brave camp.
@GuardianAus: Tony Abbott denies being lobbied on reforms by scholarship institute http://t.co/fbGuG4KGbD
Yes Ministers Sir Humphrey Applebee. Its never official until its denied.
Just fascinating to see the longer time trend – it is clear that from around July/August 2011 there was a shift underway in 2-party preferred away from the Coalition. Each time there was a turnaround the low point was higher than before and the next peak reached was higher than before. So basically everything was primed for a monumental stuff-up like the Budget to just shift it into overdrive…
GG
Not sure what you refer to re the vowels
guytaur:
[Swannie is on fire this week ]
Indeed. No shortage of material though.
Captain Blinking-lights is on 24…
[ Somewhat to my surprise, they put it up. ]
By doing so, the ABC can claim to be “objective” on the issue while still not actually reporting on it.
They are a disgrace.
Notinmyname
Your gravatar is the badge I chose to wear at the rally this week
sortius @sortius 4m
Tony Shepherd might want to think twice before telling us to stop complaining, remember, he did make donations to LNP slush funds #auspol
http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/pope-francis-fix-climate-change
If Abbott’s religious leader say so, why can’t he see it that way?
The issue with the scholarship is were the terms ever published, was it an open application, how many applied and was it a competitive selection process?
At the moment it appears that it was awarded to Abbott’s daughteer by a friend of Abbott’s without any criteria apart from the discretion of the Chairman.
Scoff Morrison doing another sovereign borders presser right now. When all else fails, trot out the boats. Me thinks Morrison is eyeing the top job
Victoria.
If you look back to pages say 20 and before, I posted some info for you on HECS/HELP.
Also posted separately on Greens, I think, intending to ask questions in the Senate next month on Whitehouse.
I have to go out now, so no time to retrieve it myself.
vic,
A nod’s as good as a wink to a blind horse.
Oops scott
Thanks crikey i will check it out.
Much appreciated
And another Abbott daughter has remarkably landed on her feet
[Some foreign affairs staff are annoyed Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s daughter Louise is working at Australia’s embassy in Geneva which is headed by former Coalition staffer Peter Woolcott.
But a spokesman for the Department of Foreign of Affairs and Trade says the job helping represent Australia to the United Nations was awarded on the basis of merit.
Jealousy over plum jobs in overseas locations is a staple of workplace life at DFAT, but departmental insiders say there are concerns over Ms Abbott being hired in Geneva, given the political connections of the mission’s boss.
Mr Woolcott was chief of staff to foreign minister Alexander Downer from 2002 to 2004 while on secondment from the department.
]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dfat-anger-over-louise-abbotts-foreign-affairs-job-20140523-zrloo.html#ixzz32VM6oBBn
Dutton just basically admitted that they aren’t sure yet who has to pay the GP co-payment, and whether or not doctors have to enforce it or not.
So Dutton’s response to Hockey and Abbott not understanding the details of the co-payment is somehow everyone else’s fault for not understanding them?
Plus he’s gone into catch-phrase mode “removing the shackles”… Curtis is actually doing a decent job of showing how little he actually understands.
[ And another Abbott daughter has remarkably landed on her feet ]
So Abbott is a serial offender?
GG
Clearly the scholarship was a gift to curry favour with the recipients father. If the organisation can be shown to have received preferential treatment, it’s basically corruption.
@1220 – actually I know someone who worked with Louise in Geneva, and she’s apparently a very bright and talented person (and probably earned the placement)… also (rumoured) not to share her father’s political views.
[We are being ruled by a winkocracy.]
…where people only please themselves 😉
MagicPudding,
Great work on your ABC comment! 🙂
[…where people only please themselves]
Is this what they mean by ‘self-help?’
@GC/J34
Just as I (and probably others) as suspected, they have no idea and it’s a policy on the run (which Labor was accused of).
[@1220 – actually I know someone who worked with Louise in Geneva, and she’s apparently a very bright and talented person (and probably earned the placement)… also (rumoured) not to share her father’s political views.]
Oh that makes it OK then … NOT.
“@oliverlaughland: Fair to say Morrison wasn’t impressed with my question about how cutting legal to asylum seekers means an assessment process can be fair”
@Just Me/1194
That needs so needs to be a hashtag on twitter.
#winkocracy ruler.
What IS it about Scott Morrison.
He always sounds so pumped up, over the top, out of breath.
You could just see him approving death sentences with a tick and a flick.
The revelation that a Sydney Radio station (presumably, of the “shock-jock”) has broadcast the address of the Pensioner “Gloria” is quite disturbing. Wouldn’t that be a prosecutable breach of the communications act ?
Diogenes,
[We don’t have any modelling to tell us what is going to happen so it may be a false economy or it may not.]
That’s a fair point, but my non-expert understanding* is that early intervention and primary care are almost always cheaper than leaving conditions to progress before addressing them (with exceptions for some neuro-degenerative conditions). I’d be happy to see some concrete evidence either way.
[And some people’s use of health services is highly elastic.]
And a flat $7 fee isn’t going to discriminate between those that are and those that are not.
*My understanding is based mainly on Mrs U’s after-workday rants, which may or may not be an authoritative source on the matter.
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 42s
eBay helpfully sending press release updates about the hack, but isn’t answering my questions.
YB
They are bullies and disgusting creatures
@YB/1234
Privacy Act as well (probably).
@1230 – I think assuming dodgy-dealings when there’s no evidence of this is probably a touch melodramatic and APS placement policies are a hell of a lot more stringent and transparent than the Whitehouse debacle.
[The revelation that a Sydney Radio station (presumably, of the “shock-jock”) has broadcast the address of the Pensioner “Gloria” is quite disturbing. Wouldn’t that be a prosecutable breach of the communications act ?]
Oh no, don’t tell me they are interfering in someone’s private life?
They sure don’t like it when someone interferes with theirs.
This will get ugly.
The Fish & Chip Shop Lady received death threats, turds in the mail, garbage on her doorstep, graffiti on her house etc. after Hadley tried to destroy her life and reputation.
He’s been ordered to pay her $100,000 as a downpayment, and still hasn’t stumped up, weeks after the deadline.
More bullying
[Crazy story in Crikey about journos at The Oz trying to do a hatchet job on @Wendy_Bacon’s kids because she reported on Frances Abbott story]
Jon Faine ABC radio host, was going to speak with “Gloria” and see what could be arranged for her protection
[Is this what they mean by ‘self-help?’]
I have no idea what you are talking about, but it certainly isn’t ‘helping each other.’
/smut
Former assistant health minister for Queensland quits as MP.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/chris-davis-quits-as-mp-20140523-zrm46.html
Whomever broadcast “Glorias'” personal details should be given a custodial sentance
These attacks on Gloria are at the height of shocking revelations that of in the UK using dead girls phone and hacking into it, remember that?
2GB should be shut down, sued, license removed, their hosts and boss in jail.
Sky News spruiking the Government’s “focus shift” from the budget detail and on to Shorten’s “immaturity”.
Wow this bimbo can spin. The Nats like the fuel excise 😆
Chris Davis resigns as Queensland MP for Stafford
There’s no place for moderates in the LNP.
Hahaha a whirling Dervish Tank. Hope Abbott hasn’t seen this, he’d try to order a few billion worth
http://www.theonion.com/articles/congress-reluctant-to-cut-funding-for-tank-that-ju,36099/