BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

As you may have guessed in advance, this week’s poll aggregate finds the pace of Labor’s recent breakthrough quickening after a disastrous reception to the government’s first budget, as Bill Shorten surges to a handy lead as preferred prime minister.

Post-budget polling has emphatically confirmed a second major shift in public opinion since the election, the first being a strikingly early dip in the new government’s fortunes in November, leaving the opposition with a narrow lead when the dust had settled. With every pollster but ReachTEL having produced results in the wake of last Tuesday’s budget, the latest landslip looks even bigger than the first, and it sends the Coalition into territory that was all too familiar to Labor during its tumultuous second term in office. The damage was done by Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan, with a small amount of the edge taken off by more moderate results from Galaxy and Essential Research. Even so, Labor now has a lead on the primary vote for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business in late 2012, even taking into account that the Greens have retained a healthy share of the vote, perhaps finding a new equilibrium with their head just above double figures. Also continuing to make hay out of the exodus from the Coalition is the Palmer United Party, which this week reaches a new high of 7.0%.

No less spectacular is the latest update on leadership ratings, for which near-identical sets of data have emerged this week courtesy of Newspoll and Nielsen. The slump in Tony Abbott’s standing which had become evident over the previous fortnight has continued apace, to the extent that I have had to increase the range of the y-axis on the net satisfaction chart to accommodate it. This puts Abbott at a level Julia Gillard would only have known in a particularly bad week. Even more encouragingly for Labor, Bill Shorten’s ratings are on an upward swing, putting him back into net positive territory after three months below par. What had previously been a steady narrowing trend in Tony Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister has sharply accelerated, to the extent of putting Shorten substantially ahead – an uncommon achievement for an Opposition Leader.

The state projections this week see the distinction in state swings even out, most notably in the case of Queensland where the swing to Labor got out of hand for a few weeks there. A considerable influence here was the latest Nielsen breakdown, which provided the first presentable set of figures I had seen for the Coalition in Queensland for some time. This may suggest that the budget backlash in that state was muted by the fact that Labor had less slack to take up, although there is no doubt also a large element of the statistical noise to which state breakdowns are inevitably prone. The upshot is that the Coalition’s position on the Queensland seat projection actually improves by four seats this week, testament in part to the state’s super-abundance of marginal seats. Offsetting this are bumper gains for Labor in other states – four seats in New South Wales, putting Bennelong, Gilmore and Macquarie on the table in addition to all the seats lost in September; three in marginals-starved Victoria, adding Casey and Dunkley to the more familiar targets of Corangamite, Deakin and La Trobe; and one each in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania.

In other BludgerTrack news, you now have the chance to put Labor’s poll surge in somewhat broader perspective thanks to the retrospective poll tracking displayed on the sidebar, which at present encompasses the previous three terms, with plans to go back to the start of the Howard era in due course. For this you can think the sleuth work of Kevin Bonham, who has provided me with Nielsen data going back to 1996. Taking into account the more readily accessible archives of Newspoll and Morgan, this should eventually give me three pollsters to play with over the totality of the intended period. For the time being, the display encompasses the familiar poll aggregate from the previous term; the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government, which also includes Essential Research and a smattering of Galaxy to supplement the three aforementioned pollsters; and the Howard government’s final term in office.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,618 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  1. [This would make the top rate of tax on super contributions = 30%, in contrast to 45%]
    Actually it will be 47% on income 🙂

  3. 985
    [ Shame on many right wing media touts (I will not call them journos)]

    I believe the correct term is “presstitutes”

  9. Abbott’s allowing his daughter to accept a very generous ‘scholarship’ that did not exist before or since shows a lack of political judgement if not actual corruption. This should be seen as a far worse offence that anything Gillard may have allegedly been close to with the union slush fund (& hasn’t the media been quiet about Blewett showing himself to be a totally unreliable witness? if the commissioner was not a lib stooge he’d have ruled as such instead of letting the allegations get another airing). She was not an elected pollie let alone LoTO at the time; she was doing free work for the union; her boyfriend was dodgy; it was 20 years ago. She was pilloried for her ‘lack of judgement’ and worse. where are the same outraged headlines over this more blatant ‘unusual’ payment. Even if it just a family friend giving a free place for a mate (which it probably is), abbott should have known it would look bad. his failure to claim it whilst making changes to laws that favour private universities tells me that he knew it was a bad look and tried to get away with it. he should stand aside while this is investigated – O’Farrell fell on a much smaller sword than this.

  11. [ @1136 – does Hockey really… really want the ALP/GRN/PUP alternatives on the table?

    * More focus on high-income super support?
    * Keeping the mining tax and a price on carbon?
    * etc etc…

    Does he think that will help their cause? ]

    He hasn’t really thought this through has he?? 🙂

    Its an interesting opening for Shorten actually. He can simply put out the policies ALP went to the election with.

    Retain Carbon price and MRRT.
    Scrap Liberal PPL
    Tax Super earnings over $100 000/year @15%

    Then do a simple compare and contrast with the Liberals budget position over the forward estimates and even beyond.

    Puts Hockey in the position of the “adults” failing miserably and the “children” saving the day. If he lets that happen he soooooooooo Fwarked.

  12. bemused

    Roskam went to school with Shorten. I dont see why a person cannot be friends with someone who dont see eye to eye on certain things. One of my best friends is a fiberal. I have over the years tried to convince her to join the other side. Funny thing is that Abbott has managed to do that to her now!

  13. LU I think that change to super (or something like it) is exactly what’s needed. And this budget has opened the door to discussion of it in terms of ‘sharing the heavy lifting’. (Thanks Joe and Tony.)

    Have you seen any modelling of that measure and its effect on revenue?

  17. [ LU I think that change to super (or something like it) is exactly what’s needed. And this budget has opened the door to discussion of it in terms of ‘sharing the heavy lifting’. (Thanks Joe and Tony.)

    Have you seen any modelling of that measure and its effect on revenue?]

    Would be interesting. And changes to the Super regime are ones that are likely to have BIG effects on the sustainability of the budget years down the track.

    Thats really the problem with Super. Everybody knows that after Costello and Howard were through screwing around with it it was unsustainable and subsequent Govts haven’t bitten the bullet to fix it. Bugger Abbotts promises of stability for Super. Fix it up from a budget and fairness perspective and THEN leave it alone.

  20. psyclaw

    The hitler spoof linked by mtbw was one i had already seen during week. Unless there is another one floating about.

    Anyhoo how come I keep hearing about election being in 2017?

  22. [Have you seen any modelling of that measure and its effect on revenue?]

    I don’t have anything to hand, but the AFR reported that Treasury modelling “predicts superannuation tax breaks will cost $36.25 billion in 2014-15.”

    I take it, without reading it closely, that this is the total tax exemption figure for concessional contributions, so the amount raised by the suggested tax changes would be less than this – but it gives you an idea of the magnitude.

  25. Exactly imacca 1167. If ever there’s a time for bullet biting it’s now. The government has at least made the case for a budget problem (if not an emergency/crisis), but let its ideology run amok with the proposed solutions – kick the poor and take their money. But while we enjoy watching Abbott self immolate it would be good to get truly shared solutions on the table, not just go for populist nay-saying and promises of a return to business as usual.

  26. “@Tony_Burke: Hockey and Cormann are all politics. They talk about politicians, not the people they hurt – like the rest of Aust isn’t there.
    #auspol”

  28. Victoria

    [One of my best friends is a fiberal. I have over the years tried to convince her to join the other side.]

    I used to work alongside two fundamentalist Christians — one of them quite closely. I became became quite good friends with the latter (and got on pretty well with the former), despite having profound differences on all the obvious questions (abortion, drug policy, god). He invited me to his wedding and I attended. Their rather perverse ideas aside, they were actually quite nice fellows, at the personal level.

    Interestingly, both strongly shared my views on asylum seekers, climate change/the environment and social justice, which certainly made things a good deal easier.

  30. We don’t want to cut the tax breaks on super completely, Zoidlord. The philosophy behind it is still sound. But making the breaks more equitable is a good idea. It’s just that reducing the tax breaks for high income earners will mean they shift investment into other areas, so the benefits to the budget need to me modeled carefully. You’d have to adjust negative gearing at the same time I imagine. Would be good to see some numbers.

    Keating’s been very quiet on all this hasn’t he? Though I gather he’s been feeding lines to Shorten.

  32. [Interesting that pretty much would FUND Labor’s NBN if the tax breaks were cut entirely.]

    That’s true, but there are also good reasons to give favourable tax treatment to savings for retirement. The problem is that the current super tax arrangements give the greatest benefit to the highest income earners – so it’s highly regressive.

  35. [ It’s just that reducing the tax breaks for high income earners will mean they shift investment into other areas, so the benefits to the budget need to me modeled carefully.]

    Would they? I guess there would be some effect, but a lot of high-income earners use SMSFs, and so directly manage their super investment portfolio, just as they would if the investments were outside of the superannuation framework.

    [ You’d have to adjust negative gearing at the same time I imagine.]

    You’re not wrong, but I think you are referring to an artefact of relaxations to a third super regulation, which allows SMSFs to invest in leveraged investments, ie. to buy a house and negatively gear the loan repayments.

    Stripping it all back, it’s akin to saying, “you can’t spend your super until you’re 65, but you can take it to the racetrack and bet with it.” Three guesses as to who changed the regulations to allow this – and your first two don’t count.

  36. Zoid,
    [Obviously they should remove high income from tax breaks.]

    I agree, and that’s the point of applying a flat discount rate. People with higher marginal income rates will still pay relatively more tax on superannuation contributions than those on lower incomes.

  38. A campaign for non liberals I think might be worth while. Get ABC Fact Check to look at the “Labor Mess” therefore “Budget Crisis” meme.

    The whole budget is based on this so it should be fact checked so people can link to it each time Libs utter the words.

  39. Re Crispy @1180: the rationale for tax breaks on super is that super relieves the pressure on the age pension. A secondary goal is to encourage long term savings at a time when Australians’ saving rates were low.

    I believe that super tax concessions should be gradually wound back closer to (but not all the way) to a level where they compensate suoerannuants for not drawing the pension. For employers, superannation contributions are also a legitimate business expense – effectively wages.

  40. Yeah right, it’s all Bill Shorten’s fault.

    [
    Government backbencher George Christensen says he has received a death threat following comments he made about the federal budget and has accused Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of ”fanning this violence”.
    ]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/george-christensen-blames-bill-shorten-for-fanning-violence-after-receiving-death-threat-over-controversial-budget-tweet-20140523-38ssl.html#ixzz32VHWI96K

  41. Sir sf

    I think Abbotts daughter was an adult when she got the “scholarship” so it was her decision, not Abbotts, whether to accept it.

  43. The ABC has put up an open thread for comment on the week’s news.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-23/open-thread3a-may-232c-2014/5472588

    I uploaded the following to it:
    [The story of the week was one the ABC has mysteriously declined to mention. Frances Abbott, the Prime Minister’s daughter, was given free tuition worth 20 bottles of Grange through a “scholarship” that no-one knew about. She is now “working” for the same institution in a job which appears to have no duties. Private colleges such as the one paying Ms. Abbott have been massively benefited by being given access to the student loan system in the Budget. This story has been covered by the Guardian, the Washington Post and even news.com , so there has to be another story behind the resolute refusal of the ABC to mention it, but we won’t be told what it is.]
    Somewhat to my surprise, they put it up.

  45. Sir Mad Cyril

    So the Libs set the fire and now want to blame Labor for it!

    What a bloody farce – they can dish it out but never cop it back.

    How did we ever get to this??????????

  46. I think the only violence involved is when George gives himself an uppercut for being so stupid.

  47. [1078
    gloryconsequence

    Abbott: the job of an Opposition leader to offer constructive alternatives.

    Classic.]

    I thought it was to mindlessly oppose?

  49. LU

    [If you are sick or have a sick child, your demand for health services is not elastic, it is inflexible. If we price access to primary and non-acute health services, the system will begin to let mild cases of illness go untreated. This may reduce upfront costs, but it’s a false economy, because enough mild cases will come back later as serious/chronic illness, which are more expensive to treat.
    ]

    We don’t have any modelling to tell us what is going to happen so it may be a false economy or it may not.

    And some people’s use of health services is highly elastic.

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