BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

As you may have guessed in advance, this week’s poll aggregate finds the pace of Labor’s recent breakthrough quickening after a disastrous reception to the government’s first budget, as Bill Shorten surges to a handy lead as preferred prime minister.

Post-budget polling has emphatically confirmed a second major shift in public opinion since the election, the first being a strikingly early dip in the new government’s fortunes in November, leaving the opposition with a narrow lead when the dust had settled. With every pollster but ReachTEL having produced results in the wake of last Tuesday’s budget, the latest landslip looks even bigger than the first, and it sends the Coalition into territory that was all too familiar to Labor during its tumultuous second term in office. The damage was done by Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan, with a small amount of the edge taken off by more moderate results from Galaxy and Essential Research. Even so, Labor now has a lead on the primary vote for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business in late 2012, even taking into account that the Greens have retained a healthy share of the vote, perhaps finding a new equilibrium with their head just above double figures. Also continuing to make hay out of the exodus from the Coalition is the Palmer United Party, which this week reaches a new high of 7.0%.

No less spectacular is the latest update on leadership ratings, for which near-identical sets of data have emerged this week courtesy of Newspoll and Nielsen. The slump in Tony Abbott’s standing which had become evident over the previous fortnight has continued apace, to the extent that I have had to increase the range of the y-axis on the net satisfaction chart to accommodate it. This puts Abbott at a level Julia Gillard would only have known in a particularly bad week. Even more encouragingly for Labor, Bill Shorten’s ratings are on an upward swing, putting him back into net positive territory after three months below par. What had previously been a steady narrowing trend in Tony Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister has sharply accelerated, to the extent of putting Shorten substantially ahead – an uncommon achievement for an Opposition Leader.

The state projections this week see the distinction in state swings even out, most notably in the case of Queensland where the swing to Labor got out of hand for a few weeks there. A considerable influence here was the latest Nielsen breakdown, which provided the first presentable set of figures I had seen for the Coalition in Queensland for some time. This may suggest that the budget backlash in that state was muted by the fact that Labor had less slack to take up, although there is no doubt also a large element of the statistical noise to which state breakdowns are inevitably prone. The upshot is that the Coalition’s position on the Queensland seat projection actually improves by four seats this week, testament in part to the state’s super-abundance of marginal seats. Offsetting this are bumper gains for Labor in other states – four seats in New South Wales, putting Bennelong, Gilmore and Macquarie on the table in addition to all the seats lost in September; three in marginals-starved Victoria, adding Casey and Dunkley to the more familiar targets of Corangamite, Deakin and La Trobe; and one each in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania.

In other BludgerTrack news, you now have the chance to put Labor’s poll surge in somewhat broader perspective thanks to the retrospective poll tracking displayed on the sidebar, which at present encompasses the previous three terms, with plans to go back to the start of the Howard era in due course. For this you can think the sleuth work of Kevin Bonham, who has provided me with Nielsen data going back to 1996. Taking into account the more readily accessible archives of Newspoll and Morgan, this should eventually give me three pollsters to play with over the totality of the intended period. For the time being, the display encompasses the familiar poll aggregate from the previous term; the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government, which also includes Essential Research and a smattering of Galaxy to supplement the three aforementioned pollsters; and the Howard government’s final term in office.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,618 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 23 of 33
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  1. [victoria
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 11:04 am | PERMALINK
    Badcat

    You can guess which radio station it bloody was. 2bloodygb]

    Hopefully some family members or other kind people will help Gloria. The 2GB tactics are shameful (as if we didn’t know) but more concerning is whether one of their listeners is unhinged enough to physically do something.

  2. [PM: Medicare services are certainly not free for the taxpayer.. It’s perfectly reasonable to put a price signal on the system]

    The man has no idea. Price signals only work if demand is elastic.

    If you are sick or have a sick child, your demand for health services is not elastic, it is inflexible. If we price access to primary and non-acute health services, the system will begin to let mild cases of illness go untreated. This may reduce upfront costs, but it’s a false economy, because enough mild cases will come back later as serious/chronic illness, which are more expensive to treat.

    No idea – an economic illiterate.

  3. Bill Shorten and other senior Labor figures should leave ‘Whitehousegate’ alone for the time being. It seems to be running along nicely under its own momentum. However, he should assign an ambitious and articulate backbencher or junior front bencher as attack dog, to dig up dirt and be available if and when the time seems right to go after the issue in Parliament.

  5. It occurs to me that social media is providing the msm with a figleaf.

    Instead of running their own stories critical of Abbott (and getting in trouble from The Boss), journalists can now run “Twitter outrage” stories – which convey the criticisms without the journalist having to take blame for them (particularly if there’s the obligatory tut-tutting about leftists etc attached).

  6. Quick question for those in the know regarding these matters: The public have been told by PM’s office that a scholarship doesn’t require declaration of conflict of interest. Does this provision extend to the offer of employment to immediate family members?

  7. Abbott is an intellectual cabbage:

    You peel of layer after layer, trying to find something substantial, but it just gets paler and more bitter the deeper you go.

  9. [I suspect the story is progressing quite well without the non-coalition parties needing to say anything. Someone may ask a question in parliament but it will probably phrased to avoid any mention of Frances Abbott.
    ]

    Great the media is running this labor should not go within a million miles of it

  11. Christian Paterson

    Dont know the answer, but this was in the NM article

    [A spokesperson for the Prime Minister told New Matilda this morning that scholarships were not required to be lodged with the Members’ Interests Register because they were won on merit, and “not a gift”.

    “Under the Statement of Registrable Interests, a scholarship is not a gift, it is an award based on merit and disclosure is not required,” the spokesperson said.

    That statement, however, does not align with advice provided to New Matilda this evening by the Australian Parliament’s Registrar of Members’ Interests, Claressa Surtees.

    Ms Surtees said that the ‘Resolution of the House’ – the rules governing disclosure of members’ interests – does not make a distinction between gifts, scholarships and awards based on merit.

    “It’s not an exhaustive list of what is and isn’t required to be declared. Not all items are explicitly referred to in the [rules],” Ms Surtees said.

    “In relation to dependent children, there are only general statements about what might need to be declared.

    “There’s nothing that talks about scholarships. The word ‘scholarship’ does not appear in the [rules].”

    More problematic for Mr Abbott is section 2(n) of the rules, which states that Members must declare “any other interests where a conflict of interest with the Member’s public duties could foreseeably arise, or be seen to arise.”

    That means it doesn’t matter whether the benefit to Frances Abbott was a scholarship or a gift, nor how it was awarded. What matters is whether or not there can be a perception of a conflict of interest.]

    https://newmatilda.com/2014/05/21/leaked-documents-cast-doubt-abbotts-60k-scholarship-claims

  12. Thanks to Fran Barlow and others for clarification of “theirABC” because I had interpreted it as primarily a criticism of the ABC journalists for “their” unconscionable lack of compliance with the ABC Charter. I’d failed to grasp to what extent “their” referred to perceptions of bias for/against the views of political parties. Given some of the Labor/Green flame wars here on PB over the years, it would be fascinating to know what nuances of meanings that their “their” would entail. 🙂

    ABC exasperates me because our taxes pay for the sloth, superficiality and superciliousness of ABC News “Stars”. The “Old School” 7 pm News on ABC1 is still fairly informative, and Juanita Phillips rarely exhibits that puffed up condescension reeking from every pore of Virginia Trioli, Tony Jones, etc., but ABC24 NEWS spews hour after hour of gormless bloviating and adolescent gossip-mongering during scripted live interviews with the ABC’s so-called political correspondents interrupted by the reality of financial and sports results, live speeches/pressers etc.. Wish I had a $ for every time a smug political correspondent answers: Yes, that’s correct, (insert first name of newsreader here), and I ………”.

  13. [ victoria

    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    Badcat

    You can guess which radio station it bloody was. 2bloodygb
    ]

    ————————————————-

    Jon made the comment – something along the lines of – of her upsetting pretty powerful elements – and reading of the mafia/lib connections today in Victoria ….

  16. [“It is true that AT&T has deployed FTTN widely throughout the US. However, overnight, in a statement published online, the telco revealed it planned to upgrade that FTTN platform imminently to FTTP, in a major investment which will see 100 US cities receive gigabit broadband speeds.”]

    Even old mega dinosaurs are abandoning the ridiculous and expensive FTTN.

  20. @WWP/1116

    US is not the only country doing this.

    Germany is on the way too:

    http://www.lightwaveonline.com/articles/2014/05/aurora-networks-telefunken-communications-partner-on-ftth-in-germany.html

    “”We focus on providing fiber-optic based high-speed broadband services in Germany in areas un- and underserved with other terrestrial networks like ADSL and coax-cable,” said Hardy Heine, member of the management board and head of marketing and sales, Telefunken Communications. “Our clear target is to become a leading player and preferred partner for communities in our market. Significant for our expansion strategy in Germany are partnerships with other competent key players in the industry, such as Aurora Networks, so that we can provide our customers with a range of cutting-edge services with the highest quality.””

    Oh dear, Fibre Optic in undeserved area’s ???

    *shocking*

  21. “@ABCNews24: .@PeterDutton_MP: Bulk billing was intended to be for patients who could not afford to pay a full fee #Budget2014”

  23. Retweeted by sortius
    Lady Catherine ‏@KadyLio 12h

    Can we all agree; if a premier should resign for a $3k bottle of wine, a PM should resign for an undeclared $60k political gift #auspol

  24. [He appears to be a pathological liar. His first reaction after the poll slump was to simply make up some crap about Howard’s polling post 1996 budget.

    I think he just used the the media not picking him up on his porkies.]

    he, hockey, pyne and hunt (or ‘hub’ as pyne would say) are all quite good at just lying – e.g. ‘we are putting more money into health and education’; ‘We accept the science of climate change and are committed to Australia meeting it’s commitments..” – the electronic media never pick them up on these. the ‘putting more into health and education’ should be qualified with (‘for the next two years as we implement Labor’s programs, and then eight years of cutting’).

    It will be interesting to see whether the howard strategy of electoral bribes in 2016 works for abbott. my sense is that he has lost trust completely, but a compliant and complicit media will help him. most of the budget nasties do not hit until post 2016 and they have no commitment to a surplus, so I think they’ll have a shot at the next election. If they do, it’ll be game over for a progressive australia as abbott will move to entrench his measures by cutting taxes further making it hard for labor to increase spending.

    Labor and the Greens need to keep articulating a vision of a better Australia that addresses the revenue shortfalls (& make it clear these are mainly caused by howard-costello tax breaks to the wealthy and middle class welfare election year bribes – they should be shouting this from the roof tops on a daily basis – the ‘crisis’ was due to costello assuming the boom was here to stay and giving the wealthy breaks disproportionate to the average income earner). They need to put forward an alternative and progressive program for increasing revenue, cutting waste in government and delivering essential social services and investment in a better and nation building way). Genuine wealth taxes and closing of loopholes should be pursued. some of beasley’s programs to do with tax credits to promote welfare to work should be pursued – allowing people to keep some of the dole as they transition into work or work part time, and particularly if it could be used as an income supplement for small businesses could work; and may justify measures to get the very few people who are actually ‘bludgers’ – this deciding anyone under 30 without a job is a bludger is absurd – I’ve recently had 80 applications for a position, and many of these people are highly qualified and experienced and have still been without a job for 6 months or more, or scraping by in unprofessional part time and casual employment that they could lose at any moment.

    watch the murdoch media label abbott ‘the comeback kid’ and praise his political acumen if polls shift upwards. watch ABC 24 join their chants of praise.

  25. @guytaur/1121

    So they now rolled out Dutton.

    FACT Bulk Billing is part of Universal Care.

    Secondly, Copayment is and will still be continued to be charged to those who cannot pay a full fee.

  26. Victoria

    Personally I don’t care much whether the scholarship is registerable under the parliament’s rules.

    It was a gift organised by a mate and party donor and anyone with a gram of scruples would have seen that and had the alarm bells ringing. Maybe taken some advice and not gone there.

    But not a Tory like Tony. That is the way they work. Who do you know and what they can do for you is their modus operandi.

    Interesting piece in the SMH today but a writer whose name escapes me. She feels sorry for Frances who has been dropped right in it by her fathers stupidity. I kinda agree.

  28. Victoria

    Personally I don’t care much whether the scholarship is registerable under the parliament’s rules.

    It was a gift organised by a mate and party donor and anyone with a gram of scruples would have seen that and had the alarm bells ringing. Maybe taken some advice and not gone there.

    But not a Tory like Tony. That is the way they work. Who do you know and what they can do for you is their modus operandi.

    Interesting piece in the SMH today but a writer whose name escapes me. She feels sorry for Frances who has been dropped right in it by her fathers stupidity. I kinda agree.

  30. [“@ABCNews24: .@PeterDutton_MP: Bulk billing was intended to be for patients who could not afford to pay a full fee #Budget2014”
    ]

    This is fundamentally untrue and the abc should not run it without stating it is untrue.

  31. I have no idea if this is true, but there’s rumours that Rabbort is going to be speaking at Flinders University in S.A. late today.

  32. guytaur,

    [“@ABCNews24: .@PeterDutton_MP: Bulk billing was intended to be for patients who could not afford to pay a full fee #Budget2014”]

    Jeez, if Abbott and Hock are lightweights in the thinking department, Dutton is a helium balloon.

  34. [Jeez, if Abbott and Hock are lightweights in the thinking department, Dutton is a helium balloon.]
    I’m not convinced Dutton knows what bulk billing is.

  35. Does Dutton know what happens if he increases or removes medical from “prescription medicines”?

    What’s happening in UK:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10849721/NHS-drugs-raid-finds-medicines-diverted-into-blackmarket-regulator.html

    “Fraudsters are infiltrating the NHS drugs supply chain and diverting dangerous and controlled medicines to street drug dealers and illegal websites, regulators have discovered.”

    “The drugs, which could pose a serious risk to health, include controlled medicines for anxiety, insomnia, hair loss and erectile dysfunction”

    Strangely enough, these are the same types of people who will loose their DSP under Kevin Andrews reviews.

    “The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency seized more than £8.6m worth of drugs in a week long operation as part of a global crackdown on black market sales of medicines.”

    But nah, the Liberals would rather link themselves to Organized Crime:
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/libs-take-money-of-mafia-man-20140522-38rrq.html#ixzz32SNQnXQO

  36. “@joeobrien24: Hockey calls on ALP and others to recognise the Budget has to be fixed .. “if you’ve got better ideas, put them on the table”. @ABCNews24”

  37. [“@joeobrien24: Hockey calls on ALP and others to recognise the Budget has to be fixed .. “if you’ve got better ideas, put them on the table”. @ABCNews24”]
    How about a market price for carbon emissions rather than a wasteful direct action system that won’t work?

  38. The Governments budget is so shit that they’re already calling for the Opposition to propose what they have to offer, not even two weeks since it was announced.

    This is 100% panic.

  39. @1136 – does Hockey really… really want the ALP/GRN/PUP alternatives on the table?

    * More focus on high-income super support?
    * Keeping the mining tax and a price on carbon?
    * etc etc…

    Does he think that will help their cause?

  41. rossmcg,
    This is along the same lines as expressed in AIMN writer V.Rollison’s “An Open Letter to Frances Abbott”

    [No one is suggesting that you didn’t deserve to graduate with high grades, and no one is suggesting that it was unfair for you to be accepted into the course in the first place. But what people are upset about, including me, just so we’re clear, is that you got this opportunity to study without paying for it through your dad’s job and his connections. We’re upset with your father. And you should really be upset with him as well because he put you in this position where you now probably feel that you’ve been unfairly criticised.]

    http://theaimn.com/2014/05/22/an-open-letter-to-frances-abbott/

  44. [Abbott is an intellectual cabbage]

    you are too generous – he’s more a brussel sprout (an intellectual pygmy cabbage) – who also gets denser the more layers you peel back and starts to stink very soon after purchase

  45. Hockey fumbles over the mining tax, Cormann takes over, Hockey responds “Yep and I agree” and walks off.

  46. [victoria
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 11:02 am | PERMALINK
    Well according to John Roskam IPA guy on ABC radio before, (and who happens to be a friend of Shorten), reckons why should privileged students not pay their way through uni]
    I find Shorten having friends like Roskam rather disturbing.

    Having friends who are lib voters is one thing, but having a friend who is a hard line right wing warrior is quite another.

    Paul Howes is even worse.

  47. @joeobrien24: Bowen says confidence has plummeted in the wake of the Budget – “Bad Budget for businesses across the country”. On @abcnews24 now

  48. [ @ABCNews24: .@PeterDutton_MP: Bulk billing was intended to be for patients who could not afford to pay a full fee #Budget2014”]

    Then take that to an election!

  49. [“@joeobrien24: Hockey calls on ALP and others to recognise the Budget has to be fixed .. “if you’ve got better ideas, put them on the table”. @ABCNews24”]

    Change the tax arrangements on superannuation contributions so that they receives a 15% discount off their marginal income tax rate. It’s only fair to apply a flat income tax discount to super contributions, rather than giving the highest earners the greatest super contribution tax benefits.

    This would make the top rate of tax on super contributions = 30%, in contrast to 45% for income. Even better, the lowest rate of tax on super would be -15%; that is, a 15% government co contribution to low income earner’s superannuation.

    You know it makes sense.

  50. Victoria

    There are many versions of the Hitler spoof.

    Have you watched today’s right through …. very funny new words etc about the last week in politics.

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