The Fairfax papers have run another of ReachTEL’s large-sample automated phone polls of federal voting intention, such as it has been conducting on a semi-regular basis for the Seven Network, most recently just a week ago. This one was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 3241, and as with last week’s poll it has the Labor lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 39.8% for Labor (up 0.2%), 37.8% for the Coalition (down 1.1%), 10.5% for the Greens (down 0.7%), 7.0% for Palmer United (up 1.0%, and adding to their recent upward trend). Other questions find majority support for a deficit levy when the question specifies it being “between 1 and 2 per cent” and “imposed on high income earners to help reduce debt”, which was favoured by 53.7% and opposed by 32.4%. However, 42% said it has made them less likely to vote for the Coalition against 22.8% for more likely. Raising the pension age to 70 is also unpopular, being supported by 21.2% and opposed by 68.1%.
If we can’t have an effective government we may as well have an entertaining one.
To me Australian Border Force sounds like a TV reality cop show.
It’s truly ridiculous that it’s the name of an actual govt agency.
badcat
I’m thinking that these new, “objective” assessors have already been told how many young disabled they have to chuck off DSP? How else could Andrews know the numbers. Or perhaps it’s by category. Broken limbs? Get back to work, BOY! Schizophrenia? You’re just malingering.
@298
End of Universal Healthcare, End of Welfare.
But not the end of Age of Entitlements for the Coalition Party.
[confessions
To me Australian Border Force sounds like a TV reality cop show.]
Presumably some comedian will soon call it the Australian Border Farce.
@289
Not sure if Stalin was deliberate or not but I didn’t think he did it out of hatred either. Was he quoted as calling it a “statistic” or was that or misconception?
Either ways, I think he saw it as a resource to be expended in the name of his leadership.
@ the whole discussion about whoever equating the “National Socialist” Nazis as Socialists must believe that the northern DPR Korea be a benevolent democratic republic for the people.
And 20000 assessments? Pure symbolism. The LNP were banging on about how there were 800000 Australians on DSP – do 20000 assessments and, say, 25% of those assessed are forced off of the DSP – woo only 795000 Australians on DSP (and 5000 more on Newstart)!
Tokenism.
Although presumably they rationalise this by the ‘deterrent’ effect – if people think the DSP is impossible to get less people will try to apply for it! Hurray!
With the added benefit of making everyone on the DSP more anxious and insecure. I think this government sees frightening people as an end in itself. There’s some esteemed political handbook they are all reading which says scared people = political gold.
Props to Kevin Andrews for cracking down on DSP fraud. Good for everyone!
Jackol I recall many of your comrades saying turning back boats was impossible too – yet here we are 6 months later and with will and purpose it has been achieved.
So which is it?
20,000 or 30,000 or…………?
[News Corp is reporting almost 30,000 will be reassessed, but Joe Hockey’s office will not say exactly how many people will go through the process.]
ESJ – low quality trolling from you.
“my comrades” – perhaps you could enlighten me as to who are “my comrades”?
And what did I say was “impossible”, assuming you are referring to my post at 307?
citizen:
Without a doubt. 😆
esj –
Another bad week at ICAC for your mob – lots of juicy stuff up next week as well 🙂
This is the report Kevin Andrews stated would be released BEFORE the Budget.
[Mr Andrews said measures announced on Tuesday would be just the first instalment of reform.
He said former Mission Australia chief executive Patrick McClure had completed his discussion paper on welfare reforms but would review it in light of budget changes.
The review will be released for public consultation after the budget.]
Why bother consulting after changes have been implemented?
ESJ – and, of course, you have plenty of evidence that you can link for us of widespread fraud of the DSP…
[@ the whole discussion about whoever equating the “National Socialist” Nazis as Socialists must believe that the northern DPR Korea be a benevolent democratic republic for the people.]
The Nazis did have two main factions, the Nationalists and the Socialists. It is wrong to say that it wasn’t a socialist party, when it clearly was.
Jackol many many Pollbludger posters mocked as impossible the prospect of turning back boats prior to the fall of the Gillardine.
The facts showed that the defeatist Labor attitude that nothing could be done was wrong.
In the same once the DSP is fully examined ? It will show that in fact 800,000 are not permanently disabled and that vigorous government policy can in fact affect how many people are eligible to receive free income support.
Actually ESJ I have to thank you – you’ve provided the missing piece in this DSP drama.
Kevin Andrews and the LNP don’t have any evidence of fraud of the DSP. They look at 800000 and say ‘ooh isn’t that a big number, there must be a lot of fraud’, but they haven’t actually got any evidence to support that.
So they need to find some evidence. That would explain this 20000 or 30000 figure – it’s a sampling exercise to get some idea of the level of fraud. Then they can come back and say “we found 1.7% fraud! we must crack down on all DSP receivers to save a few million dollars!”
[The Washington Consensus can be summarized more like this;
We will give the corrupt powerful money, they will force open a poor country to harsh neoliberal ideology forgoing all sovereignty over their economy, privatise everything. Then when the corrupt have left taking all the money, we will introduce even tougher rules to get the money back from the people who dont have any.
In developing countries, that was a death sentence to many. As Chomsky once said – ‘that debt is no more theirs (the poor in those countries) than it is the man in the moons.’
The Washington consensus has been derided widely – even by those who created it. It has been dropped and replaced by a more nuanced system – although still derided by some a mere window dressing changes.
by Simon Katich on May 10, 2014 at 4:39 pm]
Oh there is always some Chomsky or other to whinge about the poor. Look at Greece, Ireland, Iceland and Portugal. The debt was no more theirs than… whatever.
Why should someone in, say, Sydney lend money to the Greek Government and then not expect their money back on the basis that not all the Greeks owned the debt, and that some Greeks are poor?
Absurd.
At present Human Services have enough staff to review 2,000 DSP cases per year, there is also an appeals process.
My bet is Andrews will talk tough, kick a few poor sods onto Newstart or DSP Lite, then forget about the whole idea like every other Govt.
ESJ – nowhere have I said that it is impossible for the government to cut the number of people on DSP.
Of course, with a flourish of the pen, they can push as many people as they like off of the DSP.
That doesn’t mean that they are justified in doing so.
On ‘turn back the boats’ – you’re right, it was incorrect to say it couldn’t be done.
Now, trying to dine out on that fact by trying to dodgily apply it to every other thing the LNP try to do … that’s grasping at straws.
[In the same once the DSP is fully examined ? It will show that in fact 800,000 are not permanently disabled and that vigorous government policy can in fact affect how many people are eligible to receive free income support.]
There have been changes made to eligibility requirements by the previous federal government. Between June 2012 and June 2013 the number of people on DSP actually fell by 0.7%. And a bit more than half of claims were deemed ineligible under the new rules.
@308
Has nothing to do with cracking down on DSP.
idiot.
Jackol do you really think 7% of the adult population in this country is permanently disabled?
Edwina StJohn@317
If you would take a few minutes off from rewriting history, I think you’ll find the boats had virtually stopped prior to the change of government.
The main difference is that the ALP did it without destroying our relationship with Indonesia, and without violating our international obligations, whereas the LNP have done both.
ruawake@320
His previous gig was workchoices – just the one to kick the stuffing out of the disabled – they don’t even have unions.
I only know one person on disability support pension.
She was disabled for decades and was, IMHO, 100% entitled to the DSP. But she is no longer disabled, earns a bit on the side doing massages (non-sex worker) and the like, and leads a fairly good life.
A sample of one would not, of course, meet the strict statistical standards we have come to expect at Bludger. I imagine the MOE would be around 100%.
rua r u there?
What has happened to your Raiders?
They have recorded a great wins, 30-18 against the Bunnies and 24-22 against the Storm and should have bounced back after an 18-54 loss to Manly.
But what happens…they get smashed again to the Warriors 12-54.
They are gone – confidence totally shattered. Stuart’s job is on the line.
I hope Manly can balance the ledger of my account 😎
Well Player One – Labors jobs policy was staffing new detention centres. It seems the Liberals are claiming saving of $250m from shutting four down this year.
You may be better to concede the point like Jackol and move on.
But honestly only Labor could promote a repeat failure like Bowen who was primarily responsible for the area and reward them with Shadow Treasurer.
Amazing, all these reviews that the Coalition are going to embark on, while cutting back on the staff they need to do them.
Of course, it’ll be like the early years of Howard. They’ll sack lots of public servants, then hire private consultants (and thus spend more than they ‘saved’) to carry out the work. They’ll then realise that they can’t deliver their promises without public servants to do that, and they’ll start hiring public servants again.
ESJ –
This is the same nothing that Andrews has.
Oooh 800000. That seems a bit high don’t you think?
I don’t know what the figure should be. I rely on the system to dispassionately assess these cases.
But I bet you don’t know, and cannot justify, whether 7% is high or low or just right.
If there is systematic abuse of the system, then of course the system needs to be tightened up.
But in this debate no one has presented any evidence of systematic abuse of the system.
It’s all wishes and politics at the moment. When someone presents a good case besides “ooh that seems a bit high” for why there is significant abuse of the DSP then I’ll pay attention.
You, certainly, have got no such evidence.
Jackol
[On ‘turn back the boats’ – you’re right, it was incorrect to say it couldn’t be done.]
I think it was “shouldn’t morally be done” rather than “couldn’t”. And I think we were right.
Labor: 2 Royal Commissions into their “activities”, 2 former Prime Minister’s persons of interest, 2 members of the 2010 executive in the big house (1 pending appeal). There’s a certainty duality in today’s ALP isnt there?
Centre
Too many away games early in the season takes its toll.
Edwina StJohn@324
Its a matter of public record that andrews stuffed up his job with workchoices and helped significantly in getting your mates the tories chucked out on their ears including howard.
Hope andrews has still got his old form.
Bully the workers and kick the stuffing out of the disabled – a fine epitaph on him.
Edwina StJohn@329
And you might be better learning how to prosecute a coherent argument instead of just shifting ground every time you are challenged.
ESJ
where the f do you get 7% from?
[Well Player One – Labors jobs policy was staffing new detention centres. It seems the Liberals are claiming saving of $250m from shutting four down this year.]
LOL bullshit that’s a saving! That money is now funding an extensive jobs program in PNG.
[bruce hawker @brucehawker2010 9m
Now Abbott Budget is targeting young people with disabilities despite an election promise NOT to touch pensions. #mongrels.]
rua
I thought that they would make less mistakes than the Warriors and could have won the game.
What a joke, they were terrible!
[ESJ
where the f do you get 7% from?]
He made it up. The true figure is closer to 5% because to be eligible for the DSP you must be at least 16 but under retirement age (DSP recipients go onto the aged pension when they reach retirement age). So comparing the ratio to the entire adult population doesn’t make sense.
I notice Carers seem to have missed the pre-Budget publicity. I bet the $600 lump sum payment for CA and CP due on 1 July gets canned.
Or will Tony look at the polls and decide most carers are women and realise he is still in the shit in that demographic?
The way it will work is this.
Andrews will outsource the DSP assessments to some mates who have nothing to do now that AWH is on the nose.
He will then structure the contracts so that the private company ONLY earns any money if one in ten of its assessments turns disabled people into enabled people.
Fee for service.
@341
EDJ is like every other person, doesn’t know nothing about getting on DSP, and know what it’s like being on DSP.
Now comes out in support over Kevin Andrews, over a myth that there is a problem with the DSP System (or other Pension system).
Zoomster – the pop between 15-65 is about 16 million take away another 4 million who dont work or arent seeking work and hey presto 7% of australians are permanently disabled – apparently.
Interestingly certain ethnic groups are much more disabled than the average ie much higher than 7% disabled.
Shows
So it’s not Australia’s adult population, as ESJ claims, but Australia’s working aged population – an entirely different statistic.
@316
To say the Nazis were very socialist would be to say that Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU is equally socialist.
PLEASE NOTE: I am in no way equating Merkel or her party as equivalent to the Nazis, but Germany as a whole tend to lean more towards Socialism in comparison to say, the UK or the US.
So despite the Nazi’s being staunchly anti-Communist, some of their policies might appear socialist, but if only because those are part of the usual policies being debated in Germany from the Weimar Republic times up to today.
Perhaps someone more well versed in German politics might be better at explaining where they stand in the political spectrum lest we appear like comparing apples and oranges next to Australian politics.
If someone weren’t just parroting party talking points and did research, they should know that the DSP is probably the single-most scruitinised support payment out there.
The reported fraud rate for that payment is one of the lowest, if not THE lowest. People are dragged through the mud to receive that payment and checked up mercilessly.
Just because it ‘seems’ like a lot, doesn’t mean it’s not justified. Instead of saying “you’re faking it, your doctor is a lying fraud… here’s OUR doctor to tell us what we want to hear” How’s about we focus on increasing programs to get disabled people more employed and employable.
20,000 re-assessments? Good luck with that.
Love the language player one “prosecute a coherent argument”.
Did you graduate from the Dr Andrew Leigh school of pomposity?
What about “Team Australia: World Police” ?
If we can’t have an effective government we may as well have an entertaining one.
===
“Australiaaaaa…. fuck off”