ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

The second big-sample ReachTEL automated phone poll in consecutive weeks confirms last week’s result on voting intention, but also finds majority support for the deficit tax.

The Fairfax papers have run another of ReachTEL’s large-sample automated phone polls of federal voting intention, such as it has been conducting on a semi-regular basis for the Seven Network, most recently just a week ago. This one was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 3241, and as with last week’s poll it has the Labor lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 39.8% for Labor (up 0.2%), 37.8% for the Coalition (down 1.1%), 10.5% for the Greens (down 0.7%), 7.0% for Palmer United (up 1.0%, and adding to their recent upward trend). Other questions find majority support for a deficit levy when the question specifies it being “between 1 and 2 per cent” and “imposed on high income earners to help reduce debt”, which was favoured by 53.7% and opposed by 32.4%. However, 42% said it has made them less likely to vote for the Coalition against 22.8% for more likely. Raising the pension age to 70 is also unpopular, being supported by 21.2% and opposed by 68.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

606 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. ESJ “logic” –

    take away another 4 million who dont work or arent seeking work

    …

    and hey presto 7% of australians are permanently disabled

    Because those 4 million aren’t Australians, clearly…

  2. [ Edwina StJohn
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    Labor: 2 Royal Commissions into their “activities”, 2 former Prime Minister’s persons of interest ]

    Being loose with the truth again there ? Rudd and Gillard are witnesses – unless you have a link that says otherwise ?

  3. In addition to ShowsOn’s accurate comment, the largest increase in the DSP was when the female pension age was increased from 60 to 65.

    Apparently Abbott has devised a scheme to get 60 yr olds an employer subsidy so they can work till 70. How about a scheme for 30 yr old DSP recipients to work from home via the NBN?

  4. My dear Dave,

    The Gillardine’s AWU activities are being examined this week and Mr Rudd’s pink batts and his decision making have been central to royal commission no2.

    I think persons of interest is fair?

  7. Edwina StJohn@349

    Did you graduate from the Dr Andrew Leigh school of pomposity?

    You could do a lot worse – for instance – your smug sense of superiority, your arrant arrogance, and your egregious bastardry towards all but the privileged few.

  10. Labor made SUCH a mistake not organising a Royal Commission into the wheat for murderous islamic dictators scandal.

    This is one mistake that the next Labor government will not make.

  13. [Love the language player one “prosecute a coherent argument”.

    Did you graduate from the Dr Andrew Leigh school of pomposity?]
    LOL you sound jealous that you don’t have a Masters and Ph.D. from Harvard.

    I guess Harvard requires people to know how to calculate percentages.

  14. @357

    Yeah, but you seem to be ok attacking the Disabled, right?

    That’s right up the ally of Kevin Andrews and his Ilk.

  15. Edwina StJohn@353

    My dear Dave,

    The Gillardine’s AWU activities are being examined this week and Mr Rudd’s pink batts and his decision making have been central to royal commission no2.

    I think persons of interest is fair?

    They are witnesses. Your failure to produce evidence they are “persons of interest” is noted.

    Failed attempt to fit up.

  16. Dont despair comrades only 51 more sleeps and Senator-elect Joe Bullock will be sworn in to continue the fight against State socialism.

  21. [Well Jackol – I hold no candle for the dodgy or corrupt whatever their party.]
    Hang on a second, you just endorsed statements by Kevin Andrews, who is so dodgy that he accused someone of being a terrorist, had him illegally detained, and cancelled his visa without any good evidence for doing so.

    This incompetence ended up costing Australian tax payers $1 million in compensation:
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/haneef-compensation-about-1m-20101222-194vj.html

  26. [ShowsOn those who can’t, teach, collect degrees or go into parliament.]
    Can’t what? Are you referring to your inability to accurate calculate percentages?

    By the way, you don’t “collect degrees” from Harvard.

    You just sound incredibly jealous.

  28. Edwina StJohn@354

    Personally I am surprised there hasnt been an inquiry into the dodgy school halls too!

    There have been several inquiries which both established the program was an overwhelming success, including value for money.

    [ A school construction program, universally welcomed by 97% of its beneficiary schools, and which provided work for 200,000 otherwise unemployed tradesmen, labourers, planners, project managers and small businesses, saving them from corporate break up and years on the dole is damned as a waste of money, time and national treasure. ]

  30. ESJ –

    I hold no candle for the dodgy or corrupt whatever their party.

    If you’re maintaining your “independent” charade then you really need to stop parroting LNP spin.

    BER had a very low waste rate, and the vast majority of projects were completed to the satisfaction of the schools involved. Compared to any large private project delivery ever it was done very well.

    HIP improved the industry and had a lower fault/fatality rate during and after the implementation than in the industry before the HIP. Hardly a disaster. It’s a fact of our economy/society that people die in the construction industry, and we accept a certain (low) level of industrial accidents. I genuinely can’t see Hanger coming out with any particularly damning findings against Rudd, Garrett, Combet or whatshisface. It’s possible Rudd or Garrett will say something unexpected, I guess we’ll see.

    AWU – what exactly was it that you think Gillard did that was clearly wrong?

  32. I think its ironic Boerwar – speaking of the next Labor Government – that the person who destroyed the last majority Labor Government in 2010 (Shorten) aspires to lead the next Labor minority government.

    Labor will need to come to terms with Christine as to what its future platform will look like before it can order up royal commissions. Maybe when Jai comes into Federal parliament that will be possible.

  34. Edwina StJohn@349

    Love the language player one “prosecute a coherent argument”.

    Did you graduate from the Dr Andrew Leigh school of pomposity?

    Resorting to abuse when you can’t actually address the point is not really very clever.

  35. It wa a sign of how much on the nose the former NSW State ALP government was that they lost Newscastle, a traditional Labor seat.

    The unlikely winner, Liberal Tim Owen is sadly unlikely to benefit from the mooted ‘sophomore effect’. This article explains why

    [HE’S been mentioned in the latest corruption inquiry, left out of government announcements and been conspicuous by his absence from Parliament.

    The opposition has accused Tim Owen of being missing in action, but they admit to not knowing the half of it.

    The Premier’s office says it’s ‘‘a matter for Mr Owen’’. What exactly is that matter will be revealed by the member for Newcastle when he fronts the media on Monday.

    Despite repeated opportunities, the Liberal MP has refused to say anything about the reason for the press conference, scheduled for noon at the Department of Premier and Cabinet offices in Honeysuckle.

    But after his wife Charlotte Thaarup-Owen wrote on Facebook this week about politicians contributing ‘‘to general mistrust and disillusionment in society’’, the lack of detail has fanned speculation the conference is related to the explosive Independent Commission Against Corruption hearings. ]

    http://www.theherald.com.au/story/2271680/tim-owen-the-matter-and-the-moment-to-come/?cs=303

  36. Would you like to read a good dose of irony? Abbott piles it on.

    [Fiona Scott ‏@FionaScottMP 17m
    Leading into #Budget2014 message from the Prime Minister @TonyAbbottMHR. #auspol pic.twitter.com/BqsxcNd3HI ]

  38. ESJ
    I can think of several Royal Commissions that will screw the Libs and the Nats and puts lots of them behind bars. I am looking foward to it. What goes round comes round.

  42. [Resorting to abuse when you can’t actually address the point is not really very clever.]
    He’s just jealous that he didn’t even learn how to calculate a percentage at school.

  45. [Yes jackol having an “independent” examination of the school halls by a Greens party activist.]
    LOL like having a Commission of Audit headed by a Liberal Party activist and without any qualified auditors?

    Or what about the QLD Audit Commission that had Peter Costello on it.

    You are a hypocritical clown who is incapable of calculating percentages.

  47. Well boerwar – you can blame Rudd for that – he was touchingly naive.

    No doubt Dr Nelson and Tim Fischer thank him for his magnaminity as does the Gillardine.

  48. @Lizzie/386

    How stupid can one get? “Building Infrastructure for the 21st Century”?

    What constitutes as 21st Century? Fraudband? No Universal Healthcare or Welfare?

    Oh, But it’s Cigars, Corruption, Money Laundering, Roads, and Fraudband?

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