A barren spell for polling has ended with a vengeance over the past week, with results emerging from Newspoll, Galaxy, ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential – everyone indeed except Nielsen, who are presumably due next week. Each of the five polls sang from the same song sheet, and poll aggregation being the name of the game here, the BludgerTrack results on the sidebar do the same. On the primary vote, the Coalition maintains its downward trend while Labor perks up after a period in which it lost market share to the Greens. The Greens continue to fade after their Nielsen-driven peak of three weeks ago, but remain above the single-digit level they typically recorded throughout 2013. The big mover apart from Labor this week is Palmer United, which is at its highest level since December.
On the seat projection, Labor emerges in majority territory after gaining one each in New South Wales and Victoria and another three on an already hard-to-credit result in Queensland, for which I now have ten consecutive data points showing Labor with a two-party preferred, something it rarely enjoys in Queensland historically. Those who observe BludgerTrack closely will be aware that the “territories” result – which, it should go without saying, is based on a rather shallow pool of data – has long shown curiously strong readings for the Coalition. I’ve now addressed this with a bias correction measure, with a rather dramatic effect. This is a little crude methodologically, but I’m more confident in the result as it stands now, which closely reflects the national swing.
Of the many polls this week, only Newspoll furnishes useable results for the leadership tracking, and being the only leadership result of any kind for the past three weeks, the present BludgerTrack reading reflects it very closely. The result shows a sudden slump in Tony Abbott’s net approval, while Bill Shorten’s continues to settle in to the mediocre but by no means disastrous territory he has inhabited since the air went out of his honeymoon ratings over summer. Preferred prime minister remains on its steadily narrowing trajectory.
[Bit harsh BB. I hope you aren’t falling for the ‘he works for news he must be bad’ analysis that saves people thinking about his writing which IMHO hasn’t drastically changed by news anymore than Crikey has perverted our own Mr Bowe.]
To even discuss the subject is a clear indication that they know they’ve been caught out, the spin isn’t working, so now they’re trying to redefine the word “lie”… a privilege they did not grant Julia Gillard.
I’ve said all along that Abbott was like the back-street hustler whom everyone knew was a liar, and that he challenged them to match wits with him.
But I never said he should be excused for this.
BB
I guess you are aware that bagman Blewitt has been called to give evidence at the RC. Apparently he is getting immunity from prosecution in exchange
Oops
In exchange for evidence given to Vic pol who are investigating the AWU slush fund
Okay I get it Queensland you need strong choices! how many times and how much is this strong choices ad costing to be shown outside of Queensland.
GG 1205
__________
Re changes to Senate voting…..I suspect “muted” changes might be different to “mooted “changes
Meher baba posted this earlier today. Wants to understand what the govt is up to. The booklet released by team liberal is a big clue as to what the govt is attempting to do.
[Abbott Government Minister for Finance Mathias Cormann today announced the publication of a 64-page Liberal Party booklet that documents “in detail the legacy that Australians have been left by Labor”.]
http://australianconservative.com/2014/05/labor’s-mess-liberal-party-booklet-sets-out-in-detail-labor’s-legacy-of-debt/
[I have been pondering what’s going on with the Government at the moment as it’s all rather mystifying.
We are seeing backbencher after backbencher come out and bag measures they believe are going to be in the Budget: party discipline seems to be all over the place. So much so that the likes of Russell Broadbent – no fan of the current leadership group – feels he has to come out and criticise his colleagues.
We are seeing Cabinet seemingly still make decisions about what is going to be in the Budget in the final week before it is handed down. The last time I recall this happening was under Malcolm Fraser.
Worse still, as soon as those decisions are made, they are being leaked to the press gallery. Some of the leaks might be deliberate, but others definitely don’t seem to be.
While this is all happening, the Prime Minister seems more or less to have gone to ground. Meanwhile, Cormann for no apparent reason releases an election-style glossy pamphlet attacking Labor which just seems completely out of place in the context.
Then, in what I found the most bizarre moment of all, the soon-to-be-sacked Secretary of Treasury Martin Parkinson is filmed sitting next to the Treasurer in a completely staged chat saying something like “this Commission of Audit report is full of excellent ideas” (I saw this on SBS news last night: WTF?).
Meanwhile, through all this, Joe Hockey is looking incredibly complacent and happy. Clearly there is some sort of rabbit in the hat for Budget night which he reckons will sweep all this away. Is it a return to surplus in year 4? Or tax cuts for middle income earners? Or what is it?
I have been closely observing this stuff for decades and the only period that reminds me of the last two weeks were the final days of Hawke PM between when Hewson released Fightback and Keating successfully challenged the week before Xmas.
As someone who more than anything else wants to see the country governed well, I would really like to have a better understanding of what’s going on at the moment. The Press Gallery are no help. Is anyone who reads Poll Bludger in a position to explain?]
Why they are rewarding Blewitt I dunno.
The house was in his name, he sold it, and he kept the proceeds. It was open to him at any time to deny this, and to dispose of the house, giving the money to the union.
He did not.
As the Mythbusters would say, “THERE’S yer problem!”
BB
Fran kelly said other day on ABC radio, that the libs want to Giilard for this slush fund
Get Gillard
Incidentally, Blewitt has only requested immunity from prosecution. It doesn’t say anywhere that he’s been granted it.
[But I never said he should be excused for this.
]
And neither is mumble – he is saying the voters will excuse him for it in 2016 all other things being equal.
GG
Agree that ‘Liar, Liar, Pants on fire’ is not only over done but often objectionable.
Sometimes true but not always so for a change of direction.
Tones ‘No new taxes’ promise is one, I think that deserves a No excuses – ‘hammer him’.
Reading back, his signature was allegedly the only one on the association’s account. He kept the profits from the house, and no-one knows where they are.
I find it really revolting that he is the first witness before the Royal Commission.
GG
I’m pretty sure that young lady isn’t a PBer, at least not from the SA Chapter. 🙁
Mumble is taking the position like most people is that it is very rare for voters to vote out first term govts
[I find it really revolting that he is the first witness before the Royal Commission.
]
I think it is excellent anyone stupid enough to think this was a real RC genuinely concerned with the current state of the industry in Australia will know from the first witness that it is a political farce – a corruption of a RC for purely political purposes.
But where’s the political advantage for the Libs in pursuing this?
It was tenuous at best when Gillard was PM. Now that she is out of politics entirely, raking over what happened 20 years ago means nothing to pretty much anyone in the voting public.
And as far as what they could possibly “get” Gillard for … as far as I could tell the only accusation (based on Blewitt’s dodgy testimony) was that she might have falsely signed as witness to Blewitt’s signature.
Sure that’s a very bad thing for a lawyer to do (if true), but there’s never been any evidence that she defrauded anyone (Blewitt specifically in that case) or that she materially benefited from any of the AWU stuff (random claims about building work that were never backed up with evidence notwithstanding).
If the Libs are really trying to “get” Gillard it just shows, to me, how broken their political antennae are. Or that they are simply driven by some zealous revenge – although what it was that Gillard did to the Libs generally or specifically above and beyond anyone else on the ALP side besides forming government in 2010 is beyond me.
Did they really sit there stewing for 3 years muttering “it should have been us!” while glaring psychotically at Gillard and Oakeshott and Windsor?
[Bit harsh BB. I hope you aren’t falling for the ‘he works for news he must be bad’ analysis that saves people thinking about his writing . . . . .”]
This is how Murdoch’s independent, fair and balanced news operations actually function:
[……..”Ailes tasked John Moody, his top political lieutenant, to keep the newsroom in lockstep. Early each morning, Ailes summoned Moody into his office and provided his spin on the day’s news. Moody then posted a daily memo to the staff with explicit instructions on how to slant the day’s news coverage according to the agenda of those on “the second floor”, as Ailes and his loyal cadre of vice-presidents are known. “There’s a chain of command, and it’s followed,” says a former news anchor. “Roger talks to his people, and his people pass the message on down.” ]
http://churchandstate.org.uk/2011/08/inside-americas-rightwing-propaganda-machine/
[This is how Murdoch’s independent, fair and balanced news operations actually function:]
I am not unaware of this. Perhaps the best way to describe my views is that mumble is neither a party to a deliberate news corp political agenda nor to any discernible extent subconsciously influenced to the powers of darkness by unspoken rules or influences.
Lizzie
[But $700k – he doesn’t know how the other half lives, does he…]
Most certainly not!
[Meanwhile, through all this, Joe Hockey is looking incredibly complacent and happy. Clearly there is some sort of rabbit in the hat for Budget night …]
The Rabbit is infrastructure spending and Joe’s funding the States to sell off assets. They really think building roads that most people will never use and should be built in any case will earn Tony the infrastructure PM tag he so desperately wants.
Sorry, not going to happen. He will piss off regional, rural and mortgage belt punters who get nothing and will resent billions being spent on a tunnel in a City.
Abbott does not need money to balance the budget, he needs it to build monuments to himself.
[WeWantPaul
Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 5:42 pm | PERMALINK
I find it really revolting that he is the first witness before the Royal Commission.
I think it is excellent anyone stupid enough to think this was a real RC genuinely concerned with the current state of the industry in Australia will know from the first witness that it is a political farce – a corruption of a RC for purely political purposes.]
At this time of great Liberal turmoil, there is a good chance that the anti-unions RC will not be front page headline material to any extent.
I’ve seen various headlines about the batts RC in recent days but these have been buried amongst the “other” news. It’s the government’s budget woes and ICAC that make the screaming headlines.
Similarly the anti-unions RC will probably drag on without much mention in the media while the Abbott government continues in such disarray.
Ah yes but can Blewitt get immunity from alleged sexual assault charges made by his sister?
Someone was complaining about The Guardian using the term “football” for soccer. The technically correct term for “soccer’ is actually “association football”.
Australian rules football is actually older than what we know as “soccer” by a few years. Up until the 19th century, the English played various hybrids of soccer and rugby.
Interestingly most of the English “outposts” took up cricket but they wouldn’t play soccer and developed other sports.
Jackol
[Did they really sit there stewing for 3 years muttering “it should have been us!” while glaring psychotically at Gillard and Oakeshott and Windsor?]
Why don’t you ask the Rudd factionistas?
Why did McClelland resurrect the claims in the Senate just when Gillard Labor was getting some clear air?
Who put the icing on the cake?
I’m sure the Griffin Groupies led by bemused, aided and abetted by the Thomas Paines and dtts of this world, are rubbing their hands in glee.
For what? To besmirch one of their own. A Labor PM, no less.
Why believe the shite emanating from the mouth of an alleged disgusting sex addict who hopped to Asia to further his fantasy, and who also allegedly sexually abused his sister?
I’m sure the commission won’t.
He’s been offered immunity? He wants immunity.
Yes, we saw the dirt file in Credlin’s hands – put their by anti-Gillard forces from Labor, just the same as that Labor bloke in Qld sold his soul to the devil to make sure Anna Bligh didn’t get a second term.
[Then, in what I found the most bizarre moment of all, the soon-to-be-sacked Secretary of Treasury Martin Parkinson is filmed sitting next to the Treasurer in a completely staged chat saying something like “this Commission of Audit report is full of excellent ideas” (I saw this on SBS news last night: WTF?).]
I also saw this staged performance where the ‘actors’ delivered their lines fairly badly. At the end Hockey got up and said (WTTE) “time to get to work”. The whole episode was quite bizarre.
citizen, re headlines not RC’s
agree. It must be frustrating for them. I guess that why we had Morrisons non announcement today. When RC’s arent doing it for you – boats are sure to help.
I do wonder at the stoicism of Parkinson. Geez, there’s no way an employer could treat me in the way the Libs have treated Parkinson and still get me to do the ‘tame doggy’ routine.
I kind of hope Parkinson will publicly let off a bit of steam when he’s out of the public service, but maybe he’s too professional and polite to do that.
And with Hockey parading Parkinson around perhaps Hockey is going to get his way and keep Parkinson on after all in spite of Abbott.
WWP,
Since I do not engage in online disagreements, I made no reference whatsoever to Mumble, and yesterday here I commented that Tim Dunlop had run an independent blog at News.com.au.
Your posts that I’ve read are invariably soundly argued, so my thanks for the time and effort you devote to giving us your viewpoints.
[ The whole episode was quite bizarre. ]
bizarre – fits hockey to a tee.
They have got away with so much BS they think they go on with it indefinitely.
I don’t know why Martin Parkinson doesn’t just walk away with some dignity – abbott insists he is still to be sacked after they no longer need him ie when budget is done and dusted – think a November ‘departure’ has been mentioned.
Jackol
[I do wonder at the stoicism of Parkinson. Geez, there’s no way an employer could treat me in the way the Libs have treated Parkinson and still get me to do the ‘tame doggy’ routine.
I kind of hope Parkinson will publicly let off a bit of steam when he’s out of the public service, but maybe he’s too professional and polite to do that.]
You don’t have to wonder too much about which way his bread’s been buttered, do you?
What I’m saying is that if he is able to act that way now, then there’s every possibility his integrity has walked out the door for a handsome handshake.
Hockey’s little scene with Parkinson reminded me of similar scenes with Abbott, Hockey, Robb, etc. before and just after the election. The Liberal Party spinners must like them.
I also noticed Hockey’s rolled up sleeves. All part of the symbolism.
It was worse than that. They initially said immediately after the election that Parkinson was staying on just long enough to bed down this budget.
Then they recently came out and said his term had been extended by 6 months (I think) so Parkinson could cover Hockey’s arse at the G20 meeting. And then he would be out the door.
Abbott/Credlin really are just awful human beings.
As usual Diog is wrong.
[Cuju is an ancient Chinese ball game. It is a competitive game that involves kicking a ball through an opening into a net. The use of hands is not allowed. It is seen by FIFA as the earliest form of football for which there is evidence, being first mentioned as an exercise in a military work from 3rd-2nd century BC.]
😛
It’s funny how former politicians (of all sides) are able to write books about the experience in saving Australia and the world, but our retired senior public servants are pretty much expected to keep mum.
Don Russell might be an exception given his time as a staffer.
Parkinson has his ‘Application for Access to Superannuation’ form filled in and lodged.
His view, as it should be, is from a back-view morrow.
‘Thanks for the fish’ and good luck.
I’m at a loss as to why the government are determined to destroy JG.
Unless they think that ‘getting’ JG somehow diminishes her role and achievements as PM.
There is something totally sinister about this obsession.
Will Hockey deliver the budget on his lonesome or are we going to get the tag team?
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 41m
Gross borrowing under Abbott govt now up to $70.95 billion http://thekouk.com/blog/borrowing-by-the-abbott-government-just-hit-70-95-billion.html#.U2yGxca26f0 …
@1289
Which would have paid for the proper NBN entirely, and a few other things, so where did the $70 billion go?
Dee – Simply put ‘r##ted in the head’.
What a waste of time and will most likely result in the reverse happening next time Labor get in.
[Will Hockey deliver the budget on his lonesome or are we going to get the tag team?]
My guess is the Galleries will be full of people cheering and clapping after each sentence with Joe taking a bow at appropriate spots (marked on the script).
[Dee
Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 6:15 pm | PERMALINK
I’m at a loss as to why the government are determined to destroy JG.
Unless they think that ‘getting’ JG somehow diminishes her role and achievements as PM.
There is something totally sinister about this obsession.]
They won’t destroy Julia Gillard.
This one-trick government, using an RC and a two-bit sex addict on the one side against a formidable lawyer, negotiator, administrator extraordinaire, is going to look every bit as misogynistic as it set out to be.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, JG is enjoying her life, and doing what she does, and thinks, is best. The alleviation of global poverty resides in female education globally.
The world recognises her talents, even if the backwater of sludge of Australian politics doesn’t.
More power to her hand.
Oh I forgot Bronnie will be holding up signs, clap, laugh, sigh, boo at appropriate times (marked on the script).
[ Dee
Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 6:15 pm | Permalink
There is something totally sinister about this obsession. ]
He really is dumb if he thinks what goes around won’t come around for him.
Labor have a long memory and do payback up there with the best.
With abbott it will be mixing business with pleasure.
Dee
Twitter takeover: Julia Gillard answers your questions on global education
[In an exclusive discussion with the development community, former prime minister of Australia and education advocate Julia Gillard is taking over our Twitter handle @GdnGlobalDevPro.
“There can be no higher priority than getting all children access to school,” said Gillard when she became chair of the board of directors at Global Partnership for Education in February this year. She added she was “alarmed by the recent sharp decline in donor support to education… particularly for girls’ education.]
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2014/may/06/julia-gillard-twitter-global-education
zoidlord@1290
The $400 Billion from Mining Boom Mk1 would have paid for multiple NBN’s.
[ Will Hockey deliver the budget on his lonesome or are we going to get the tag team? ]
Just hockey and it will say – this is all Labor’s fault 65 different ways.
[Tony Abbott will retire on $7775 a week ]
If this is true, retired PMs don’t need any other perks, surely.
The Royal Commissions into the insulation scheme and the unions is clearly a pathetic political stunt from this lunatic Govt.
The Royal Commission into responses re child abuse is well overdue.
What is needed next is a major inquiry into political donations.
Unfortunately though the LNP and ALP duopoly will prevent this from ever happening.
It’s just one example of the dangers of a ‘duopolized’ political system.