BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

A pre-budget polling slump for the Coalition expands Labor’s poll aggregate lead, crediting them with an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A barren spell for polling has ended with a vengeance over the past week, with results emerging from Newspoll, Galaxy, ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential – everyone indeed except Nielsen, who are presumably due next week. Each of the five polls sang from the same song sheet, and poll aggregation being the name of the game here, the BludgerTrack results on the sidebar do the same. On the primary vote, the Coalition maintains its downward trend while Labor perks up after a period in which it lost market share to the Greens. The Greens continue to fade after their Nielsen-driven peak of three weeks ago, but remain above the single-digit level they typically recorded throughout 2013. The big mover apart from Labor this week is Palmer United, which is at its highest level since December.

On the seat projection, Labor emerges in majority territory after gaining one each in New South Wales and Victoria and another three on an already hard-to-credit result in Queensland, for which I now have ten consecutive data points showing Labor with a two-party preferred, something it rarely enjoys in Queensland historically. Those who observe BludgerTrack closely will be aware that the “territories” result – which, it should go without saying, is based on a rather shallow pool of data – has long shown curiously strong readings for the Coalition. I’ve now addressed this with a bias correction measure, with a rather dramatic effect. This is a little crude methodologically, but I’m more confident in the result as it stands now, which closely reflects the national swing.

Of the many polls this week, only Newspoll furnishes useable results for the leadership tracking, and being the only leadership result of any kind for the past three weeks, the present BludgerTrack reading reflects it very closely. The result shows a sudden slump in Tony Abbott’s net approval, while Bill Shorten’s continues to settle in to the mediocre but by no means disastrous territory he has inhabited since the air went out of his honeymoon ratings over summer. Preferred prime minister remains on its steadily narrowing trajectory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,514 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. Nicky Di G says he had no involvement in & no knowledge of anonymous complaint to #ICAC re Dr Kerry Schott. O’Mahoney suggests he’s lying.

    #ICAC now saying the text message mentioning “Mike” has been traced to Mike Gallacher. Nicky Di G had indicated he thought it was Baird.

  3. BB

    I believe the recruitment for the new CEO of ASADA was hotly contested with two outstanding candidates

    McDevitt and a highly qualified lawyer Mrs Hird but was ruled out as we can’t have women in leadership roles.

  4. GG

    I don’t agree with Mumble that we are living in a completely post truth environment. I think the voters will sometimes punish lies and sometimes they won’t.

  6. Tim Koelma was backgrounding #Fairfax journo @Heathaston about Sydney Water. “Sun Herald gave us a good run” texts Koelma to Hartcher #icac

    We are adjourning now. Nick Di Girolamo is still not finished. #icac

  7. [ I think the voters will sometimes punish lies and sometimes they won’t. ]

    They are not doing a bad job at punishing themselves atm.

  8. Diogs,

    It all comes back to what is the definition of a lie.

    Faulty memory, misunderstanding of information, circumstances changing and general cock ups are often portrayed in this forum as lying behaviour.

  10. [Tim Koelma was backgrounding #Fairfax journo @Heathaston about Sydney Water.]

    So we have evidence Heath Aston was being used by AWH to promote their agenda, I assume he will tell us who else he has been fed by.

  12. [NdG must be a Labor plant, surely, given how much damage he single-handedly has caused the NSW LNP…]

    St. Pat’s 5, Jesuits Nil.

  13. GG
    [Here’s a great idea for the SA chapter of PB Anonymous.]

    Thats a nice looking muffin. Or is it a cupcake?

  14. I have no doubt that Whatshisname who got the ASADA gig is fully qualified for the job. It’s just that appointing someone who’s qualified is so…. un-Abbott.

  15. Faulty memory, misunderstanding of information, circumstances changing and general cock ups are often portrayed in this forum as lying behaviour.

    “portrayed in this forum”

    No, not really. If you think there are egregious examples of this, feel free to quote them as supporting evidence.

    And, of course, the prime culprit in recent times for allegations of ‘lying behaviour’ is Abbott – “This bad government based on a lie.”

  16. B.C.@1211

    Yep, nor is changing your mind a lie.

    I’m quite looking forward to the tories redefining the meaning of a lie more and more in the coming weeks – most voters know they are lying even more, by even trying to talk it all away.

  18. Just catching up.

    I have never understood why Mr Abbott, upon losing his ministerial salary, had to take out a mortgage for $700,000. He was still an Opposition Pollie.
    Why did he suddenly need the money? What expenses was it covering? Anyone know?

  21. [An inquiry into whether Queensland Crime and Misconduct Commission (CMC) acting chairman Ken Levy misled Parliament has been put on hold because police are investigating the matter.

    A Select Ethics Committee was set up last year to look into the claims.

    However, last month Labor MP Bill Byrne asked police to investigate whether Dr Levy had lied to State Parliament, which is also a criminal offence.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-09/cmc-acting-chairman-ken-levy-being-investigated-by-qld-police/5442938

  22. Dr Levy has an ICAC witness kind of memory but it was probably a dumb idea to get an opinion piece on LNP policy published after visiting the Premier’s office to get the facts correct.

    Even dumber from a guy who could have been CMC head honcho if he kept his politics in his pants.

  23. Lizzie

    Apparently Rabbott took out the mortgage to cover cost of living expenses and for private school fees for two of his daughters.

  26. We will see if mumble is right.

    He is very critical of ‘inside the bubble’ thinking but I think he has fallen for a bit himself. I’m not sure he is right when he speculates that those outside the bubble understood and wanted tax increases and services cut. I and sure they are thoughts from inside the bubble, I’m not sure how much they fly outside the bubble.

    Both the no carbon tax and no mining tax campaigns were based on voter selfishness. Very successfully so. Mumble himself observes that people (ignorant ones anyway) actually believed the labor waste lie.

    If they truly believed that lie then it is easier to believe the lies that Abbott can return the budget to surplus and cut taxes. Abbott also talked a lot about the Howard days – a period of boom – wealth – tax cuts.

    I think it is possible that Abbott created genuine expectations that people would be better off – not worse off. If this is true it is still possible Abbott could win again but it will be much harder than the cakewalk mumble predicts.

    Perhaps the NBN is another example of this. That is if people believed Abbott would deliver better for cheaper they will be very disappointed.

  27. Dee
    [Apparently Rabbott took out the mortgage to cover cost of living expenses and for private school fees for two of his daughters.]

    Private school fees are the root cause of much that is wrong in this world of capital.

  29. WWP,

    The problem is that we all distill the discussion down to one point of view (usually our own). The reality is there are always multiple constituencies and multiple and even contradictory views within the community. Politics is about the distribution of the pie. Politicians are the sauce that makes the pie slip down your throat.

  30. GG

    [Seems the micro parties are unhappy about the muted changes for the Senate voting.]

    They sounded like sensible changes (A surprise when Alan Griffin is involved).

  31. GG

    as its texture (due to the batter) that really differentiates between muffins and cupcakes, I am sure I would need to at least taste test to be sure.

    (I wasnt going to go there but its Friday)

  32. Well, well, welll..

    [The Health Services Union has launched a legal action against its own national secretary Kathy Jackson demanding she repay almost $250,000 paid into a slush fund.
    The HSU succeeded in a bid to lodge an amended statement of claim on Friday in the Federal Court in Melbourne which added its allegations over the slush fund to its case that was already under way as the union has sought to recover legal fees.
    Ms Jackson in return had launched a counter-claim seeking almost hundreds of thousands of dollars in back pay. The HSU is now seeking to recover money paid to the National Health Development Account (NHDA) which was controlled by Ms Jackson.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/hsu-demands-kathy-jackson-repay-250000-20140509-zr85c.html#ixzz31CPcATbU ]

    The only question I have is: “Where are the Victorian police?”

    You’d have thought they’d have had “hundreds of witnesses, some from interstate” onto this one.

    In any case, the matter’s been referred to the Unions RC, in another illustration of what happens when you start drift-netting for your enemies.

    Sometimes you catch your friends, too.

  34. Oh, I see what youse all meant about Mumble’s contorted dissembling today:

    [TONY Abbott lied before the 2013 election; there is no way around that. But most voters probably knew it at the time.]

    Nice one.

    Perhaps his next column will be about how many angels can be squeezed onto the head of a pin?

  35. You note that Mumbles never mentions that the biggest purveyor of the big lie is his very own employer, and it isn’t hard for the libs to sell their big lies with Murdoch as an enabler. What, Mumbles, is that a beam in your eye?
    My take is that labor lost the last election because the electorate wanted to boot them out, and indulged in some wishful thinking when it came to Tone and his gang. Now they know that wishful thinking is bullshit and we have a whole new ball-game.
    If Mumbles is right and people knew what they were getting before the last election, why are the libs tanking in the polls? Surely, if Mumbles is right, the polls wouldn’t have been affected. Strange logic.
    On the other hand, maybe he hasn’t read the recent polls.
    My guess is that the Libs think that they’ll put all the nasties up front and keep some money in the kitty for a big election give-away. That, and Rupe, will save them. We shall see.

  38. [The problem is that we all distill the discussion down to one point of view (usually our own). The reality is there are always multiple constituencies and multiple and even contradictory views within the community. Politics is about the distribution of the pie. Politicians are the sauce that makes the pie slip down your throat.]

    Of course this is true but I still like mumbles analysis – stepping back from the largely irrelevant daily battle and trying to identify larger pattern and narratives. I think not just the strategy but also mumbles implementation of it is very strong.

    Put in simple terms I am speculating that today’s piece may have isolated a narrative that is more inside the bubble and might be a more minor pattern and narrative.

  39. @BB/1232

    The question I have, is where is Tony Abbott, who supported Kathy Jackson as a whistleblower.

  43. Dee

    Thanks. I suppose there was less ability to claim “expenses” when he wasn’t a Minister. But $700k – he doesn’t know how the other half lives, does he…

  44. [@BB/1232

    The question I have, is where is Tony Abbott, who supported Kathy Jackson as a whistleblower.]

    Good question!

    As we all know, Tony Abbott is Kathy Jackson’s greatest friend… oh, wait…

  45. [Oh, I see what youse all meant about Mumble’s contorted dissembling today:

    TONY Abbott lied before the 2013 election; there is no way around that. But most voters probably knew it at the time.]

    Bit harsh BB. I hope you aren’t falling for the ‘he works for news he must be bad’ analysis that saves people thinking about his writing which IMHO hasn’t drastically changed by news anymore than Crikey has perverted our own Mr Bowe.

    Does anyone know what became of Mr Palmer – the most significant change to the ozpolitics – pollbludger – mumble world surely was poor William absorbing us rowdy dumb refugees when ozpolitics went.

  48. [HSU has sued Jackson before]

    Putting it bluntly: if the effinf Vic Police can hound Gillard over something they can’t prove, that happened over 20 years ago, why don’t they start hounding Kathy Jackson?

    If they can prosecute Craig Thomson over a few grand, why not Kathy Jackson over hundreds of thousands? Or at least investigate the circumstances with the same gusto that they have used against Thomson and Gillard?

    ANSWER: They are captives of The Australian, and corrupt to the bootstraps.

  49. WWP – If everyone knew the libs were lying, and didn’t care, why have they tanked in the polls?

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