BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

A pre-budget polling slump for the Coalition expands Labor’s poll aggregate lead, crediting them with an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A barren spell for polling has ended with a vengeance over the past week, with results emerging from Newspoll, Galaxy, ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential – everyone indeed except Nielsen, who are presumably due next week. Each of the five polls sang from the same song sheet, and poll aggregation being the name of the game here, the BludgerTrack results on the sidebar do the same. On the primary vote, the Coalition maintains its downward trend while Labor perks up after a period in which it lost market share to the Greens. The Greens continue to fade after their Nielsen-driven peak of three weeks ago, but remain above the single-digit level they typically recorded throughout 2013. The big mover apart from Labor this week is Palmer United, which is at its highest level since December.

On the seat projection, Labor emerges in majority territory after gaining one each in New South Wales and Victoria and another three on an already hard-to-credit result in Queensland, for which I now have ten consecutive data points showing Labor with a two-party preferred, something it rarely enjoys in Queensland historically. Those who observe BludgerTrack closely will be aware that the “territories” result – which, it should go without saying, is based on a rather shallow pool of data – has long shown curiously strong readings for the Coalition. I’ve now addressed this with a bias correction measure, with a rather dramatic effect. This is a little crude methodologically, but I’m more confident in the result as it stands now, which closely reflects the national swing.

Of the many polls this week, only Newspoll furnishes useable results for the leadership tracking, and being the only leadership result of any kind for the past three weeks, the present BludgerTrack reading reflects it very closely. The result shows a sudden slump in Tony Abbott’s net approval, while Bill Shorten’s continues to settle in to the mediocre but by no means disastrous territory he has inhabited since the air went out of his honeymoon ratings over summer. Preferred prime minister remains on its steadily narrowing trajectory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,514 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 24 of 31
1 23 24 25 31
  1. BUSHFIRE – In other words, this govt contains all the majestic boofheads in the Howard Govt, but without John Howard as the ring-master. This really does show was an adept political operator he was. Without him, they are just a total shambles.
    It is hysterical watching Abbott (a chronic liar) prepared to die in a ditch to protect a few of his promises (PPL and roads infrastructure). Govt is complex and nuanced, and Tone doesn’t do either.

  2. Nicky Di G now listing Tim Koelma’s many attributes – explaining why he hired services of 8×5. Paid 8×5 $7333 a month for years #icac

  3. “@latikambourke: AFP alleges Melb man obtained information from an ABS employee to enter into forex derivatives, profiting $7m. @abcnews”

  4. “@latikambourke: AFP alleges the Melb man was a 26 yr old, employed at NAB. But operated on own accord. @abcnews”

  5. $7 million. If convicted it will be 2 years for every million. Judges really don’t like insider trading offences.

  6. @1138

    It sounds like they will implement everything from the Commission of Audit, regardless of the Senate and Polling.

  7. [ Joe is in this pool full of sharks way out of his depth. ]

    LoL BB!!

    now,……Release the Kraken!!! 🙂

  8. “@InsidersABC: On #insiders this Sunday: @markgkenny @dwabriz & Michael Stutchbury. @frankellyabc interviews @Bowenchris. Talking Pics w @jonkudelka”

  9. Vic – no doubt they will try – but I think more in the media are ready to call BS and many in the public also know its BS.

    Abbott still basically in hiding.

  10. [ I tried the Guardian’s Budget 2014: how would you cut Australia’s deficit? – interactive and ended up with a $29.3b surplus. ]

    Yeh, i came in at a $48.5b deficit because i didn’t drag their superannuation one across. Nice interactive but that category needs to allow for a bit more nuanced response.

  11. At times I think we really need a feature to allow us to edit our previous posts (as Whirlpool does) to fix our typing/grammatical/spelling errors. It’s amazing how what I want to type often isn’t what I actually type.

    Although after listening to Paul Keating last night any changes will just see the rorting move elsewhere.

  12. Ah. spoke too soon. there were two categories for super.

    keeping the concessions on employer contributions, but ditching concessions on entity earnings gives a $21,4B surplus. 🙂

    Now, make that a little more nuanced and keep some of the concession on earnings (say like taxing %15 on earnings over $100k) and i reckon you would still have a surplus or pretty close to it.

    Has anyone sent this to JoHo?? He may find it helpful with his desk full of numbers??

  13. There are actually two superannuation items in the Guardian interactive: concessional taxation of employer superannuation contributions and concessional taxation of superannuation entity earnings. I put in the latter. Although I think there’s room to reform both.

  14. K17
    [Govt is complex and nuanced, and Tone doesn’t do either.]

    I like it. Blunt Edge Tony.

    But when it comes to Power and its consolidation…… maybe he is the correct instrument for those who support him.

  15. “@political_alert: Sports Minister Peter Dutton has announced Ben McDevitt as the new CEO of the Australian Sports Anti-Doping Authority #ASADA”

  16. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-respond-to-audit-commission-with-own-spending-cuts-20140508-zr6ys.html#ixzz319ehx4c7

    OK Greens haters – here you go, tell us what is disastrous about these.
    Or maybe — not such a bad set of ideas?

    [•A public insurance ”levy” on the big four banks that would raise $11 billion.
    •A $2-per-tonne levy on thermal coal exports.
    •Restoring the original super profits tax on mining companies.
    •Taxing discretionary trusts, except those set up by farmers, the same way as companies.
    •Keeping the price on carbon while abolishing the Abbott government’s Direct Action spending.]

  17. [“@InsidersABC: On #insiders this Sunday: @markgkenny @dwabriz & Michael Stutchbury. @frankellyabc interviews @Bowenchris. Talking Pics w @jonkudelka”]

    A don’t bother to watch list.

  18. SC

    PJK said that if hi end super concessions go, the hi end spivs will just move on to another rort ….. they won’t just meekly put their money into a bank a/c.

    So any structural reform to the super concessions will need to be part of a package of reform which reduces the currently available easy rorts, such as limiting the nature of negative gearing, and reducing the capital gains concession %.

  19. [Kate McClymong Love that Tim Koelma, who was wet behind the ears, hired for insights into Libs when AWH had Sinodinos on board & Nicolaou on payroll #ICAC]

  20. Matthias is an idiot, if he scraps the MRRT he is giving mining companies hundreds of millions of dollars in tax concessions oh er …. silly me. 🙁

  21. Arthur X Sinodinos roping in Barry OFarrell’s CoS Pete McConell to garner support for his rd to riches via AWH #icac pic.twitter.com/BLU5paBmET

  22. Of course there’s no way I’d take a Cormann statement/soundbite at face value, I’ll wait until Keane or Gittins or someone sums up the operation of the MRRT.

    My understanding of the deductions available to the miners was that they could claim them against the MRRT or company tax (but not both) – presumably with the choice and timing to a certain extent left up to the company. But either way those deductions would be claimed against revenue at some point (and would be whether the MRRT existed or not).

    But I could well be wrong.

  23. [“@political_alert: Sports Minister Peter Dutton has announced Ben McDevitt as the new CEO of the Australian Sports Anti-Doping Authority #ASADA”]

    Awww… I would have thought they’d appoint Stephen Dank, on the same “fox/henhouse” basis as Dick Warburton on the RET and Tim Wilson at Human Rights.

    Disappointed.

  24. BB

    [Disappointed.]

    I’ve dealt with McDevitt when he was with the AFP.

    Comes across as laid back but is actually the real ‘deal’.

  25. Comes across as laid back but is actually the real ‘deal’.

    The LNP may try, but they can’t stuff everything up.

  26. BB asked how did anyone think Hockey was competent

    Simply really he was sat next to Kevin Merit Andrews.

  27. [Revenues
    Total revenue was $23 million lower than the MYEFO profile. This lower than forecast figure included $175 million of refunds from previously overpaid Minerals Resource Rent Tax instalments.]

  28. [Jackol
    Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 2:46 pm | PERMALINK
    Australian Border Force (ABF) will begin operating

    Yech. Is it just me or does ‘Australian Border Force’ sound like a bad commercial TV melodrama?]

    How long before some cartoonist depicts the AUSTRALIAN BORDER FARCE?

    That’s not inappropriate given the saga of the ‘inadvertent’ incursions into Indonesian waters.

  29. “@justinbarbour: Huge RT @Kate_McClymont: “Mike” in a text exchange Koelma & Nick Di G offering to help AWH is not Mike Gallacher but Mike BAIRD, says NDG”

  30. I imagine a reshuffle would be more about boning Dutton and some of the other obvious non-performers. Get frickin’ Pyne out of education – let him focus on being chief government smarmy git.

    And, of course, fix the “women problem” in cabinet.

    Abbott’s explanation for sticking with his team of losers was that whole continuity thing he was pushing before the election “this is the team I will take into government” “full of experience” “ready to govern”.

    Now that that has all been proven to be so much bulldust, and they’ve given up pretending to keep to their pre-election commitments, a reshuffle seems like the least of their political problems.

  31. [It is understood Mr Abbott’s closest advisers have discussed unofficial lists of possible changes in the ministry.
    Any reshuffle would be limited as the election was just eight months ago. It is unlikely Mr Morrison would take a major economic portfolio, as incumbent Treasurer Joe Hockey and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann are secure.
    The Prime Minister is an admirer of Mr Morrison’s hard line approach on matters and in late February hinted he considered him a man after his own style.]

  32. guytaur@1193

    “@justinbarbour: Huge RT @Kate_McClymont: “Mike” in a text exchange Koelma & Nick Di G offering to help AWH is not Mike Gallacher but Mike BAIRD, says NDG”

    Moah moah 🙂

  33. “@MWhitbourn: #ICAC counsel Geoffrey Watson SC clarifies there is evidence to suggest the “Mike” in the texts is ex police minister “Michael Gallacher”.”

Comments Page 24 of 31
1 23 24 25 31

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *