Seat of the week: Franklin

With Saturday’s election in the corresponding state upper house seat of Huon fresh in the mind, Seat of the Week takes a visit to the Tasmanian seat of Franklin.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The only seat left standing for Labor in Tasmania after a 9.4% statewide swing at the last election, Franklin covers the Hobart suburbs on the eastern bank of the Derwent River together with Kingston on the city’s southern fringe, small towns further to the south, and the unpopulated southern part of the World Heritage area in Tasmania’s south-west. The remainder of Hobart, including the city centre and the suburbs on the river’s western bank, constitutes the electorate of Denison. As one of Tasmania’s constitutionally mandated five House of Representatives seats, Franklin has an enrolment of roughly three-quarters the national average and an uninterrupted history going back to the state’s division into single-member electorates in 1903.

Labor first won Franklin at a by-election held two months after the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, then lost it again amid the party’s debacle of 1931. The seat subsequently changed hands in 1934, 1946, 1969 and 1975, before remaining in Liberal hands throughout the Fraser years and the first 10 years of the Hawke-Keating government. Labor finally won the seat when colourful Liberal member Bruce Goodluck retired at the 1993 election, which together a strong statewide result for Labor delivered a decisive 9.5% swing to Harry Quick. Quick maintained the seat with only mild swings either way at subsequent elections, although there were occasional suggestions he might be brought undone by internal party machinations. When his preselection appeared threatened ahead of the 2004 election, Quick was able to secure his position partly by indicating that he might run as an independent.

After choosing his own time of departure at the 2007 election, Quick sought to keep the seat out of factional hands by promoting his staffer Roger Joseph as his successor. This was thwarted when a deal assigned Franklin to Kevin Harkins, state secretary of the Left faction Electrical Trades Union, and Bass to the Right-backed Steve Reissig. Objecting that Harkins was a “right thuggish bastard” who would lose the seat, Quick declared that he planned to vote for the Greens. His attacks drew blood as newly anointed Labor leader Kevin Rudd sought to distance the party from unsavoury union associations, with Harkins carrying baggage from the 2003 Cole royal commission into the building and construction industry. Harkins’ position ultimately became untenable in July 2007 when the Australian Building and Construction Commission brought charges against him over an illegal strike. When he won preselection for the Senate ahead of the 2010 election, he was again rolled by the intervention of Kevin Rudd.

With Harkins out of the picture and the election looming, the preselection was referred to the party’s national executive, which maintained the factional balance by choosing the Left’s Julie Collins, the state party secretary and a strongly performing though unsuccessful candidate at the March 2006 state election. The loss of Quick’s personal vote combined with the manner of his departure resulted in Collins suffering a 3.1% swing, one of only four swings to the Coalition at that election. Coming off a suppressed base, she went on to enjoy a 6.8% swing at the 2010 election, the highest recorded by a Labor candidate anywhere in the country. She then emerged Labor’s only lower house survivor in the face of a swing that unseated sitting members in Bass, Braddon and Lyons, her margin reduced to 5.1% by a 5.7% swing to the Liberals that was 3.7% below the statewide result.

Collins was made a parliamentary secretary after the election, and progressed to the outer ministry as Community Services Minister in December 2011. After backing Kevin Rudd’s successful leadership bid in late June she was promoted to cabinet, adding housing and homelessness, the status of women and indigenous employment to her existing area of responsibility. Since the election defeat she has held the shadow portfolios of regional development, local government and employment services.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

904 comments on “Seat of the week: Franklin”

Comments Page 17 of 19
1 … 16 17 18 19

  1. fess

    [I choose Ludlam. He’s by far the least hysterical Green in the federal parliament from what I’ve seen]

    You haven’t come across Richard Di Natale. Pretty level-headed bloke.

    Not as much of a spunk as Ludlam but a bit more savvy.

    Ludlam will have his day before Probyn.

  3. “@greencate: Oct 28 2010 @TonyAbbottMHR said: “We stand for lower, simpler, fairer taxes, not great big new taxes” #lateline”

  4. 795

    It is generally accepted by the public that Gillard lied. That is unlikely to change as Gillard herself said the price could be called a tax.

    Milne used terminology I would not have advised her to, but it was not an attempt at vilification of Gillard but saying the voters now trust Abbott as little as the trusted Gillard after the carbon policy announcement. It helps create a meme in the media of “the voters do not trust Abbott” and that is good for the ALP (and the Greens as well).

  5. I for one do not dispute the intention of Milne’s statement was to label Abbott as breaking a promise.

    I even don’t dispute that it could be the most effective way to attack Abbott.

    But, I still feel it is a mistake, with the carbon price repeal coming up, to adopt the LNP framing of said price. Even for a snappy attack at budget time.

  6. I for one do not dispute the intention of Milne’s statement was to label Abbott as breaking a promise.

    I even don’t dispute that it could be the most effective way to attack Abbott.

    But, I still feel it is a mistake, with the carbon price repeal coming up, to adopt the LNP framing of said price. Even for a snappy attack at budget time.

  8. Fess

    [Why is a Greens leader invoking the language and imagery of misogynistic shockjocks FFS?]

    Oh for pity’s sake. Milne’s comment was on the money. She’s hoisting Abbott on his own petard.

    The ‘juliar moment’ in this context meant a serious political blunder. Gillard’s blunder was to allow carbon pricing to be described as a tax. Abbott’s blunder was to introduce one when he avowed there would be none, and further, that there would be no surprises and no excuses.

    If you can’t see that, I’m astonished.

    While Gillard absolutely was the target of misogyny, the Juliar thing was just political trolling.

  10. Tom

    LOL for heaven’s sake.

    She (Milne) was trying to paint BOTH major parties (Juliar) as liars.

    The Loons get into the gutter as good as any of them if the opportunity presents 😐

  11. I think people should perhaps agree to disagree about Christine Milne’s comments. Some people don’t mind her using ‘Juliar’, some do. Some think she didn’t say it at all…not sure what further insight or understanding we can come to on this one.

    I think Milne is fantastic at a lot of things, and has done decades of hard work within the party and the movement, but leadership doesn’t suit her. She isn’t so great at connecting with the general populace and offering positive alternatives imo. She would be much better used holding Morrison to account in SHY’s immigration portfolio for example.

    Tom, I agree with you that Adam Bandt is most likely to be the next leader. Makes sense to have a leader in the HoR and Adam is talented and can articulate the positive vision stuff (as can Ludlam).

  12. kezza:

    Haven’t had much exposure to Di Natale, but he strikes me as too ‘inner City Melbourne’ to hold appeal around the country.

  15. Sprocket referred to this earlier. This stinks to high heaven

    [Victoria Police, detectives who have been running an 18-month investigation with Mr Blewitt’s co-operation, intend to charge him with fraud-related offences, to which he will plead guilty. He is expected to give evidence against others. is understood that in return for his co-operation and guilty plea, police will make courtroom submissions that Mr Blewitt should not be sentenced to jail.

    Mr Blewitt’s travel expenses for his current visit to Australia are being met by a private citizen who has wanted to see the slush fund issues properly investigated by police and the Royal Commission]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/corrupt-awu-official-ralph-blewitt-first-to-face-royal-commission-into-union-graft/story-fn59niix-1226908862189#

  16. Apologies – grew up in Melbourne, now lives in the otways. I swear I’ve seen a video of him on a family farm somewhere though.

  19. mimhoff

    [But, I still feel it is a mistake, with the carbon price repeal coming up, to adopt the LNP framing of said price. Even for a snappy attack at budget time.]

    Oh I’m so tired of this.

    Would we even know about it, would it have been worth reporting as a mistake, if the bleeding msm hadn’t fiddled with a videotape?

    And then when you get to the point of asking these questions, you realise just how much we are taken for bloody mugs.

    A minute or so grab of Waleed Aly is enough for Andrew Bolt to take him out of context. And to ridicule him as an Muslim-apologist. When that was not the case.

    A minute or so grab of Christine Milne is enough for a couple of News Ten folk to take her out of context. Enough for her to be portrayed as a Gillard-betrayer.

    What’s going on here?

    We’re being asked to raise our bullshit antenna on high.

    Some of us aren’t up to the task.

  20. [Confessions, Richard Di Natale is from Western Victoria and his office is in Geelong.]

    So? None of this is detracting from his uniquely Melbourne appearance. Bandt sports the same look.

  22. [alias
    Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 9:58 pm | PERMALINK
    I need to preface this by saying that I do not condone racial stereotyping in any way, shape or form, however..

    One of the LNP’s most serious emerging image problems (one of many) is that one of their main public faces when it comes to this hardline cost-cutting/ideologically extremist economic policy is Mathias Cormann – a man with a heavy German accent.

    I reckon if a PR/advertising firm was advising the LNP, they would call this a total disaster. There is something viscerally alarming about being told something akin to “za trains vill run on time!” by this chappie.]

    I had the same thought myself today when I heard him on the news appealing to Australians to trust the Liberal Party. It was just laughable.

  23. OFFS centre et al

    Terms like, “Honest John”, “Core promises,” Pig Iron Bob, Juliar and I suspect soon Phony Tony have entered the Australian lexicon, like it or not. They are used as short hand to summarise a particular event or issue and people’s response to them.

    Now while I feel that she had little choice, the reality is that due to the effective campaign of Abbott and co Julia Gillard was tagged as having a broken promise over the carbon price. Yes of course it was unfair but that is politics.

    For whatever reason the ALP was never able to sell the CT to the public. Gillard copped the tag Juliar, which I suspect is a schoolyard term that everyone named Julia has copped since they were 6 years old. It was for Gillard a pivotal moment when the public seemed to switch off her

  26. [She (Milne) was trying to paint BOTH major parties (Juliar) as liars.]

    No, I don’t think she was. She was using a shockjock reference to a former PM in order to paint a current PM as somehow equivalent. But we both know it doesn’t work because her own party supported the former yet seems to be opposing the latter. Milne’s choice of terminology is disappointing to say the least.

  27. Well, I do hope the VIC ALP’s going to ante up more on transport. Napthine’s surprised a few by getting on the front foot with promises (admittedly at the expense of Port of Melbourne).

  30. The “Juliar” epithet remains one of the most egregiously offensive terms ever used to describe a PM.

    For a start, the “carbon price” was not a tax, whatever anyone might say of it. Even if it could be construed as a tax, JG did not “lie” about its introduction. The worst she can be accused of is breaking an undertaking. This is not the same as lying.

    Abbott has also broken his undertakings. There’s just no question there’s been a breach of faith with the voters.

    Milne has used Abbott’s breach of faith to revive the outrageous depiction of JG as a liar. It’s obvious that Milne has done so to harvest the anger now being felt about Abbott and to play on hostility to Labor at the same time, but this hardly excuses her. Milne is prepared to be Alan Jones’ echo and, in so doing, to emulate the scurrilous politics-by-defamation practiced by the LNP.

    Milne has proven she is no better than Tony Abbott.

  31. lefty e@827

    Well, I do hope the VIC ALP’s going to ante up more on transport. Napthine’s surprised a few by getting on the front foot with promises (admittedly at the expense of Port of Melbourne).

    All the ALP need do is match Naptime on transport, with perhaps a few more crossings (Kooyong, Bentliegh, Glenhuntly) to get rid of for good measure

  32. Confessions @ 820 – Ok, but I disagree with you. he wears glasses and nice jumpers. So what? I think he speaks well and comes across as compassionate and down to earth. He also had a big hand in Denticare, which is one Greens achievement that almost everyone supports when you mention it.

  33. OFFS centre et al

    Terms like, “Honest John”, “Core promises,” Pig Iron Bob, Juliar and I suspect soon Phony Tony have entered the Australian lexicon, like it or not. They are used as short hand to summarise a particular event or issue and people’s response to them.

    Now while I feel that she had little choice, the reality is that due to the effective campaign of Abbott and co Julia Gillard was tagged as having a broken promise over the carbon price. Yes of course it was unfair but that is politics.

    For whatever reason the ALP was never able to sell the CT to the public. Gillard copped the tag Juliar, which I suspect is a schoolyard term that everyone named Julia has copped since they were 6 years old. It was for Gillard a pivotal moment when the public seemed to switch off her big time and from which she did not recover.

    Kevin Rudd had his pink batts moment, Gillard her CT Juliar moment, Howard had the Chaser boys at APEC moment, Hewson the birthday cake, Keating the recession we had to have, Downer fishnets and so it goes. Each of these “moments” seem to grab the public attention because they do encapsulate a feeling or emotion.

    Rather than dumping on Milne we should be finding Abbott’s moment, and that of Hockey and the rest. Once we have them then the next election is in the bag.

  34. [Victoria Police, detectives who have been running an 18-month investigation with Mr Blewitt’s co-operation, intend to charge him with fraud-related offences, to which he will plead guilty. He is expected to give evidence against others.]

    I have no problem with this if his evidence against others is hard evidence that can be and has been independently verified. If it is just his words smearing other people it is an utter face and a disgrace and we should have an investigation into the police and the relevant ministers at state level where anyone can smear them with an indemnity.

  35. [Downer fishnets]
    And “The things that batter”.
    And attending a League of Rights meeting.
    And the weapons for wheat scandal.

  37. connie

    I felt as if Milne was not shy in making reference to “Juliar” for political capital.

    I’d like to see the Sky replay again but I think Milne and Gillard have had their differences.

    *night

  41. Received the following email from – vic.alp.org.au

    “Will you join our Community Action night on Friday and make 30 calls to tell people what the Liberals won’t?”

    How would the vic alp have my name and email address ??

    If I signed a petition banning gill net fishing in Corio Bay by ex MP Darren Cheeseman, would this be the cause I wonder ?

    Do not like this at all.

  42. Lefty e – I hope the Vic ALP pull their finger out on transport too. I can’t believe they’re not promising the Doncaster train line. Firstly, it would provide such a clear point of difference to the Libs EWLink. Secondly, it would win them the election in a heartbeat. Nuff said

  43. [briefly
    Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 11:02 pm | PERMALINK
    The “Juliar” epithet remains one of the most egregiously offensive terms ever used to describe a PM.]

    Women will remember it, long after the fucking blokes who think they’ve had the last laugh, will.

    As I keep saying, if Milne actually said that today, then they would have shown it. But they didn’t. They cut it from somewhere else, some other answer she gave to an entirely different question. And then had the nerve to play a clip of JG with a voiceover.

    Ask yourself why they did that. It wasn’t to get rid of JG, they’d already done that. It was to get rid of Milne as a leader of the Greens. To make Labor hate her.

    And it works very well with a few people on here. Just imagine how it plays Australia-wide.

    That’s propaganda.

  46. [ To make Labor hate her.]

    She doesn’t need the media to help to make labor supporters hate the greens, the greens did that for themselves.

  47. leftye,

    [Well, I do hope the VIC ALP’s going to ante up more on transport. Napthine’s surprised a few by getting on the front foot with promises (admittedly at the expense of Port of Melbourne).]

    I just came back from the first campaign meeting for the new ALP candidate for my electorate and that issue ranked highly. The “Get Home Safe” policy (or whatever it’s called) is a real winner IMHO, though no doubt it would win the youth vote who, I guess don’t need to be won. I saw something the other day from the candidate for Prahran, Neil Pharaoh (who I think was a convener of Rainbow Labor) running a strong campaign along these lines.

    Because Labor released these policies, as well as the removal of 50 level crossings and the metro rail, somewhat early in the piece, the Liberals have merely tried to neuter them with their pathetic “alternative” that takes place sometime in the nether-nether. It has the policies, I guess it’s a matter of selling them, and Andrews doesn’t seem to struggle to get favourable media coverage.

    Personally, I think for the Liberals, it’s too little, too late for it to be effective. Even if they resolve the industrial disputes with the firies and the paramedics before the election, there’s still the impression of one dispute against public sector workers after another their whole term. Same with transport, I think it’s been a big issue for so long people simply aren’t going to forget and trust that these projects are going to go ahead as they say just before an election

  48. Briefly

    It is late and I am for sleep but like it or not the carbon tax was a TAX. Gillard was actually being quite sensible in admitting this BUT sadly the PR fall out was terrible. I have many criticisms of JG but this is NOT one of them, although sadly she unfairly copped a heap of c**p over it.

    The CT was a tax for 3-4 years because it was a fixed levy on carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, levied on a subset of businesses. Now certainly the intention was to shift eventually to a Price set by trading but during the time it operated the CT was a tax, like it or not. Registration fees are taxes, so too are licences. Of course there is a solid component of user charge in some of these fees but they are still taxes.

  49. [ But, I still feel it is a mistake, with the carbon price repeal coming up, to adopt the LNP framing of said price. Even for a snappy attack at budget time. ]

    Agreed. I think Milne has trouble thinking strategically. She is a bit quick to go the shrill harangue for a short term relevance hit. Something along the line of:

    “The Carbon Price was never a Tax. Tony’s? This is a Tax”

  50. [taylormade
    Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 11:10 pm | PERMALINK
    Received the following email from – vic.alp.org.au

    “Will you join our Community Action night on Friday and make 30 calls to tell people what the Liberals won’t?”

    How would the vic alp have my name and email address ??

    If I signed a petition banning gill net fishing in Corio Bay by ex MP Darren Cheeseman, would this be the cause I wonder ?

    Do not like this at all.]
    Had a call the other night from Amnesty.

    Same thing. But I refused to answer any questions until I was told how they’d gotten my number.

    Turned out I’d signed a petition (UN Human Rights generated).

    On the other hand, I don’t subscribe to Fairfax, but read all of BK’s links each morning (thanks BK) but also got an email from Fairfax telling me how much they appreciate my clicking on their links.

    How’d they know it was me?

    Wish I hadn’t deleted it now, else I would be giving them my two cents regarding sacking 70 folk today.

Comments Page 17 of 19
1 … 16 17 18 19

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *