Seat of the week: Franklin

With Saturday’s election in the corresponding state upper house seat of Huon fresh in the mind, Seat of the Week takes a visit to the Tasmanian seat of Franklin.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The only seat left standing for Labor in Tasmania after a 9.4% statewide swing at the last election, Franklin covers the Hobart suburbs on the eastern bank of the Derwent River together with Kingston on the city’s southern fringe, small towns further to the south, and the unpopulated southern part of the World Heritage area in Tasmania’s south-west. The remainder of Hobart, including the city centre and the suburbs on the river’s western bank, constitutes the electorate of Denison. As one of Tasmania’s constitutionally mandated five House of Representatives seats, Franklin has an enrolment of roughly three-quarters the national average and an uninterrupted history going back to the state’s division into single-member electorates in 1903.

Labor first won Franklin at a by-election held two months after the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, then lost it again amid the party’s debacle of 1931. The seat subsequently changed hands in 1934, 1946, 1969 and 1975, before remaining in Liberal hands throughout the Fraser years and the first 10 years of the Hawke-Keating government. Labor finally won the seat when colourful Liberal member Bruce Goodluck retired at the 1993 election, which together a strong statewide result for Labor delivered a decisive 9.5% swing to Harry Quick. Quick maintained the seat with only mild swings either way at subsequent elections, although there were occasional suggestions he might be brought undone by internal party machinations. When his preselection appeared threatened ahead of the 2004 election, Quick was able to secure his position partly by indicating that he might run as an independent.

After choosing his own time of departure at the 2007 election, Quick sought to keep the seat out of factional hands by promoting his staffer Roger Joseph as his successor. This was thwarted when a deal assigned Franklin to Kevin Harkins, state secretary of the Left faction Electrical Trades Union, and Bass to the Right-backed Steve Reissig. Objecting that Harkins was a “right thuggish bastard” who would lose the seat, Quick declared that he planned to vote for the Greens. His attacks drew blood as newly anointed Labor leader Kevin Rudd sought to distance the party from unsavoury union associations, with Harkins carrying baggage from the 2003 Cole royal commission into the building and construction industry. Harkins’ position ultimately became untenable in July 2007 when the Australian Building and Construction Commission brought charges against him over an illegal strike. When he won preselection for the Senate ahead of the 2010 election, he was again rolled by the intervention of Kevin Rudd.

With Harkins out of the picture and the election looming, the preselection was referred to the party’s national executive, which maintained the factional balance by choosing the Left’s Julie Collins, the state party secretary and a strongly performing though unsuccessful candidate at the March 2006 state election. The loss of Quick’s personal vote combined with the manner of his departure resulted in Collins suffering a 3.1% swing, one of only four swings to the Coalition at that election. Coming off a suppressed base, she went on to enjoy a 6.8% swing at the 2010 election, the highest recorded by a Labor candidate anywhere in the country. She then emerged Labor’s only lower house survivor in the face of a swing that unseated sitting members in Bass, Braddon and Lyons, her margin reduced to 5.1% by a 5.7% swing to the Liberals that was 3.7% below the statewide result.

Collins was made a parliamentary secretary after the election, and progressed to the outer ministry as Community Services Minister in December 2011. After backing Kevin Rudd’s successful leadership bid in late June she was promoted to cabinet, adding housing and homelessness, the status of women and indigenous employment to her existing area of responsibility. Since the election defeat she has held the shadow portfolios of regional development, local government and employment services.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

904 comments on “Seat of the week: Franklin”

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  1. [frednk
    Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    The Green’s success seems to be inversely proportional to Centre’s prediction of their demise.
    ]
    Oops got that wrong, the more Centre predicts the Green’s demise the more successful the Greens seem to be; the Green’s success seem to be proportional to Center’s prediction of demise.

  2. I need to preface this by saying that I do not condone racial stereotyping in any way, shape or form, however..

    One of the LNP’s most serious emerging image problems (one of many) is that one of their main public faces when it comes to this hardline cost-cutting/ideologically extremist economic policy is Mathias Cormann – a man with a heavy German accent.

    I reckon if a PR/advertising firm was advising the LNP, they would call this a total disaster. There is something viscerally alarming about being told something akin to “za trains vill run on time!” by this chappie.

  3. Using the ‘Juliar’ reference infers that Milne thinks Gillard lied about carbon pricing. Why else would she tag that to Abbott given she is saying he lied?

    But after everything she saw Gillard go through at the time why the hell would she choose to invoke reactionary shockjock language, most of it used in sexist references, to refer to one of the major outcomes from the Labor-Greens agreeement?

    It’s very disappointing from Milne.

  4. twaddle, fair enough. You’re saying there is an unspoken “for the sake of argument, let’s assume TA’s attacks on JG were warranted”. That’s a mouthful, so we are left with something short and effective, even if unfortunate.

  5. Yesiree Bob

    “Not really, there are ways of referencing that term without specifically mentioning it.”

    I’m not a fan of dancing around the English language – even rather unlettered neologism – simply for political reasons. The term ‘Juliar’ has entered the public discourse whether you like it or not, and carries with it a readily understandable meaning, context, imputation and history. It sums up a lot if things that otherwise aren’t worth the effort explaining in say, a press conference or doorstop.

    To that end it’s perfectly acceptable to use the term to succinctly highlight hypocrisy where it exists. This is something Milne understands and you apparently do not. Maybe you’re just easily offended.

    I doubt Julia is crying in her coffee about it though.

  6. guytaur

    Do you really think Gillard would have been cheering at Milne’s comments? 😆

    I’d say something along these lines…”you calling me Juliar now? For listening to you? You fruit cake !@#$%^ so and so” 😉

  7. Absolutetwaddle

    It’s not about dancing around the English language etc.

    If Ms Milne had have described Abbotts actions WTTE as his “Gillard moment” then her message would have been just as effective

  8. Guytaur – Absolutely true of course. If I were employed in the LNP image machine, I’d be getting MC voice coaching to strangle that accent out of him pronto.

    On “Juliar”: If Labor is going to capitalise fully on Abbott’s remarkable own goal, then folks here are going to have to get very used to raking back over political history to revisit this episode.

  9. [alias
    Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 9:58 pm | PERMALINK
    I need to preface this by saying that I do not condone racial stereotyping in any way, shape or form, however..]

    ‘However’ equals ‘but’.

    That’s exactly the same as saying I’m not a racist but . .

    And that brands you as something you are trying to avoid articulating.

    You can understand Cormann, can’t you? So what’s your problem?

    My problem with Cormann is that he’s a right-wing ideologue and espouses policy that I will not support.

    I have the greatest appreciation of those who learn English as a second language (or third or fourth or fifth or sixth) and I think he does a great job at expressing himself in our language but I will not suborn myself to fascist sympathies.

    And that’s why I dislike him and his policies. Not because of his accent. I see enough of his ilk in native speakers like Abbott and Hockey.

  10. guytaur:

    Milne was trying to speak to rusted on Liberals with her terminology, and in a way that just might appeal to those voters?

    Seriously?

    Babe, you need to get your head out of your arse with that shit. Seriously.

  11. I’m with you entirely Kezza2, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t a problem (another one) for the LNP. As Guytaur noted, this stereotype is hardwired into our brains, all the way from “Don’t mention the war” on Fawlty Towers, right down the popular culture line.

    I’m just saying that folks out there in voterland will find it even more jarring than it already is to hear this stuff delivered in a heavy German accent.

  12. Yesiree Bob

    “If Ms Milne had have described Abbotts actions WTTE as his “Gillard moment” then her message would have been just as effective”

    I strongly disagree. ‘Juliar’ was a MUCH more appropriate word to use in that context as it immediately brings to mind Abbott standing in front of signs to that effect bitching and moaning about broken promises.

    Milne’s whole point was about hypocrisy. If you dilute the language you dilute the message to the extent it’s meaningless.

  13. confessions

    Take your own advice. Milne is not fighting political battles already lost.

    Accept the reality of the election. Labor lost this one. Calling it Abbott’s Juliar moment is about political consequence not that she is calling Gillard a liar. Just accepting others did

  14. confessions, the point is she’s using terms they will understand. Whether or not (she thinks that) those are well constructed terms is another matter.

  15. On Christine Milne: Centrebet is running a market just now about which leader is most likely to be changed.

    Milne: short-priced favourite at $1.80
    Shorten: $3.50
    Abbott: $4

  16. absolutetwaddle
    [Milne’s whole point was about hypocrisy. If you dilute the language you dilute the message to the extent it’s meaningless.]
    The very essence of what I was trying so unsuccessfully to convey.

    As well as the indecent deceit of the media in blurring the message.

    Well done.

  17. Absolutetwaddle then on that point we will have to agree to disagree then.
    Referring to the deficit tax as Abbotts “Gillard Moment” conveys to the electorate just how much of a Hypocrite Abbott really is, succinctly and without the need to descend to crassness.

  18. kezza, in this case I don’t think you can fault the media for blurring anything. For Milne’s comparison to have any sting, it has to be – and in that case is intended to be – taken at face value.

  19. YB

    Say “Gillards Moment” you see that interview intt your head replaying under a government I lead.

    Say Juliar moment you see Abbott in front of signs on Parliament House in your memory.

    At least I do

  20. alias
    [I’m just saying that folks out there in voterland will find it even more jarring than it already is to hear this stuff delivered in a heavy German accent.]
    I’d probably agree with you if not for the fact that, in least in my circle, we had not satirised to the point of saturation the stupidity of branding a nation because of its leaders.

    Just like I won’t want to be called a Abbottist in the future because a certain percentage of the population opted for stupidity rather than the adventure of making society better for all.

    And it has nothing to do with son recently marrying a modern German. 😆

  21. [If Ms Milne had have described Abbotts actions WTTE as his “Gillard moment” then her message would have been just as effective]
    WTF? If Milne had’ve called it for what it was, ie Abbott doing that time honoured thing of major parties using their own interpretation of the budget to frame their post election policies, thereby walking away conveniently from their pre election rhetoric, it would’ve had much more salience and relevance than just shrieking Juliar and retreating.

    Milne failed. She needs to wear the consequences of her statements. She went for divisiveness, and it’s disappointing to see GReen shills defending her for her actions.

  22. alias

    That is a gimmick market.

    I hope people don’t get sucked into it?

    The house has no leadership change in its favour.

    Still, Milne should definitely go. Ludlum would win easily in a challenge.

  23. [Milne: short-priced favourite at $1.80]

    If it ain’t Ludlam who is next in line to be leader then it’s Bandt or the repulsive SHY.

    I choose Ludlam. He’s by far the least hysterical Green in the federal parliament from what I’ve seen.

  24. 775

    I would put Abbott as most likely. The Coalition is showing public signs of disunity and leadership dissatisfaction.

    Shorten is unlikely to go anywhere and if he does it will probably be for non-political reasons (illness, death, etc).

    Milne is fairly safe. She is well respected in the Greens. I think that the WA Senate vote has helped her leadership safety as it shows that the Green vote can go back up again under her leadership and most of the drop was minor party competition and association with the previous government.

  25. confessions

    “Milne failed. She needs to wear the consequences of her statements. She went for divisiveness, and it’s disappointing to see GReen shills defending her for her actions.”

    I’m not a Green shill (or voter, for that matter) and don’t even particularly like Christine Milne. But it’s still obvious to me what she meant.

    Just because I vote Labor doesn’t mean I have to trawl through every Green utterance to find something to take feigned offence at, I’ll leave that to Centre.

  26. confessions

    In time people will see the truth about the lie.

    In the meantime using the lie against them is poetic justice

  27. Kezza2

    Yes you might be right about satirising that stereotype to saturation point – after all, the “don’t mention the war” scene I mention has been absolutely quoted to death. I would, in fact, be pleased if in fact no one takes exception to the heavy German accent, but I still suspect that at some level, it will be grating – perhaps in particular for older Australians.

    I have nothing but admiration for modern Germany. The way the nation has faced up to ww2 is an object lesson that some others in our neighbourhood would do well to pay heed to.

    I even like the sound of the German language, having learnt it at school.

  28. I think that AT’s interpretation of the the word Jul**r (758) is more on the money than Centre’s (759). I took it as a succinct way of upbraiding Abbott as a liar and highlighting his hypocrisy. But others have a different interpretation so Christine Milne probably should have chosen different words.

    Apologies for my earlier incomplete post. Fat clumsy fingers on this tiny iPhone keyboard.

  29. I think Milne has been verballed here tonight. Her words should not be interpreted literally. They were spoken in the context of the last 10 days or so of speculations that Abbott was going to implement a lie on budget day.

    In using the words “Juliar moment” Milne was simply referring to the phenomenon of the last 3 years when the media and Abbott combined to expertly build a perception widely accepted by the public that Ms Gillard lied, regardless of whether or not she did lie.

    IMHO it is possible to refer to that phenomenon and to name it as “Juliar moment” without any reflection or consideration as to whether JG’s words were actually a lie, or as to whether later circumstances justified her actions (if indeed her earlier words were a lie).

    Milne was just saying that the high price JG eventually paid for those words, deservedly or not, is a precedent for what will happen to Abbott if the budget ends up as anticipated. The budget, she says will spawn a similar phenomenon …… a lump of 4×2 with which Abbott will be belted by the public for the rest of his career …. and which will in the end characterise his PMship.

  30. 785

    I think Ludlam would make a Good leader but I do not think he will run in the near future.

    I think that the next Green leader is most likely to be Bandt as he is the Deputy Leader (like Milne was), He demonstrated an ability to win his seat (Melbourne) in an election not otherwise all that favourable to the Greens and Bandt being leader would mean the Greens had a leader from the HoR like the other parliamentary parties (Liberal, ALP, National and probably soon to be Palmer).

  31. Agreed on Ludlam, Confessions.

    He comes across as articulate, smart, energetic. That speech he made to an empty chamber that went viral is sensational. Could very well come to define this bleak term of radical government.

  32. For heaven’s sake, Milne is saying that Abbott lied just like Gillard.

    Abbott is having a “Juliar moment”.

    Too blatantly obvious for the sane!

  33. [DisplayName
    Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 10:19 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza, in this case I don’t think you can fault the media for blurring anything. For Milne’s comparison to have any sting, it has to be – and in that case is intended to be – taken at face value]

    Yes, I’d agree with you, except for the fact that the video I have seen does not show Milne saying those words. At all.

    Instead we have her voiceover while showing Gillard.

    I’m not at all convinced Milne said those words at that time. Because I don’t trust the media.

    I have replayed the video more than half a dozen times. It doesn’t seem as if it isn’t seamless. But then again, why would it, when it was so easy back in the day to meld Video 8?

    The only problem is that it cuts to a video of Gillard when Milne is supposedly saying those words.

    Being the cynic I am, I ask why, why would they do that if it was a contiguous interview? They didn’t need more visuals of Gillard.

    And the only reason I can come up with is because it didn’t happen that way.

    It’s a lie. It’s a deceit.

    To me, they’ve cut in something Milne said in another context to make it seem that way today.

    And I know how easy it is to fabricate nonsense about someone you want to fail.

  34. [confessions, let’s put it another way. She’s holding Abbott to *his* standard.]

    Jeez, I can hold Abbott to his own standard, and I don’t need to use shockjock references in order to do it.

    Again: Milne failed.

  35. alias:

    I’ve long been a fan of Ludlam. He’d be a much better leader than SHY, who seems to be pushing herself within the partyroom.

  36. 790

    Remembering of course that Cormann is not actually a German. He is an ex-Belgian (if he had not given up his citizenship he would not be eligible for the Commonwealth Parliament) from the German speaking region Belgium got after WWI as a sort of compensation for its invasion.

  37. “@greencate: It’s not higher taxes that the people are worried about, it’s @TonyAbbottMHR breaking his promise. #lateline”

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