Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll in four weeks is well in line with other results to emerge from a busy weekend polling cycle, with Essential Research still to come.

The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.

This is the latest in a polling avalanche which has followed the interruption of Easter and Anzac Day, to which Essential Research is still to be added tomorrow. Three other polls published over the past two days have produced strikingly similar results on the primary vote, from which Newspoll differs in having Labor lower and the Greens higher:

• Galaxy, for the first time adding an online panel component to its live-interview phone polling to produce an enlarged sample of 1391, has the Labor lead at 52-48, with primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 6% for Palmer United.

• A ReachTEL poll conducted on Saturday, also from a larger-than-usual sample of 4016, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, with primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition, 39.6% for Labor, 11.2% for the Greens and 6.0% for Palmer United.

• Morgan’s multi-mode face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted every weekend but compiled fortnightly, has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 according to the conventional two-party preferred method that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election, increasing to 55-45 when preferences were allocated by the respondent. The primary votes are 37.5% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 12% for the Greens and 5.5% for Palmer United.

UPDATE: And now Essential Research comes in entirely unchanged on last week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United. Questions on the deficit tax show the importance of wording in these situations – just as carbon tax questions got a more favourable response when the rationale for them was laid out, inquiry about “a temporary ‘deficit’ tax on high and middle income earners aimed at bringing the budget back to surplus” has support and opposition tied at 34%. However, 48% favour the proposition that “introducing a new ‘deficit’ tax would be a broken promise by the Abbott Government” versus 33% for “it is more important to reduce the deficit than stick to pre-election promises”.

Other findings have “management of the Australian economy” all but unchanged since a year ago, with a total good rating of 40% (up one) and total bad of 31% (down one), but with results by party support having changed beyond recognition; Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen to manage the economy by 33% to 27%; Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26); 23% very concerned about job losses, 34% somewhat concerned and 29% not at all concerned; 77% believing the gap between rich and poor to have increased over the last 10 years, with only 3% for decreased; 29% thinking their own financial situation good versus 26% for poor; “the cost of living” rated by far the economic issue of most concern (56%, with unemployment in second place on 11%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

703 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 13 of 15
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  1. If you are talking about your average garden bribe, then sure Indonesia is more corrupt. However, at government/ministerial/party level things like providing political favours to “mates” through privatisation, creation of private monopolies, profiteering, etc., then Australia must be right up there. Open government is a thing of the past in Australia. Labor have been involved in this, but the Tories have made an art form out of it.

  4. yesbob – given the relative population of australia and indonesia – to surpass the Australian ecoonomy -Indonesia would need to grow by a factor of 10 in 10 years.

    Try not to embellish your arguments in future – it would be more credible.

  7. Edwina StJohn@604

    yesbob – given the relative population of australia and indonesia – to surpass the Australian ecoonomy -Indonesia would need to grow by a factor of 10 in 10 years.

    Try not to embellish your arguments in future – it would be more credible.

    Yes, how impertinent to provide you with fact, eh Eddy ?

  8. Steve

    [That’s no excuse for the dodgy dealings we’re hearing about in ICAC and the likely illegalities and human rights violations in our treatment of asylum seekers.]

    What’s even worse is they are dropping our rating!!

  9. sprocket:

    That’s a pretty slimy effort by News.

    Really, they’re going that route on a PM’s daughter?

    Piss fucking poor IMO. They deserve condemnation.

  12. News is being so nasty to Abbott I wonder whether he will Prime Minister on Friday week. Chrissy Pain is fronting the ABC an awful lot lately

  13. Just saw a TV advert asking people to sponsor a child in Cambodia ……. “$xyz per month will allow a child to go to school”.

    Seems like an ideal place to send asylum seekers. FFS.

  16. again, from the above article regarding Indonesians economic growth:

    Indonesia is barely a middle-income country yet, so there’s plenty of room to catch up. But its population base means that it will be a big economy before it is a very rich economy.

    As observed recently, Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are strong. Foreign investment is playing a major role in the economy’s growth. This reflects Indonesia’s attractiveness as an investment destination, given its large market of 240 million people, rapidly expanding middle class, wealth of natural resources, and strategic location. The ratings agencies have recently upgraded Indonesia’s long-term and local currency ratings to ‘investment grade’, a move that further boosts Indonesia’s standing among global investors. The A.T. Kearney FDI confidence index — which involves a series of surveys of companies with annual global revenue of more than US$2 trillion and provides an assessment of the prospects of international investment flows — ranked Indonesia 21st in 2007 but amazingly the 9th most-attractive investment destination in 2012. Although handicapped by its weak legal system and poor infrastructure, Indonesia is a popular destination for investors in the manufacturing industry.
    http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/07/09/indonesias-eclipse-of-australia/

    Thems the facts folks, but as people like ESJ keep proving, there are none so blind as those that refuse to see.

  19. I read just this morning that Indonesia is now the 10th largest economy in the WORLD.

    GDP per head may still be low but it is the total economy that matters in a LOT of stuff.

  21. Just saw a TV advert asking people to sponsor a child in Cambodia ……. “$xyz per month will allow a child to go to school”.

    Abbott and Pyne have there way these ads will run in Cambodia trying to raise money for Aussie kids

  22. The upshot of it all is that, contrary to the willfully ignorant ilk of ESJ, we need Indonesia far more than they need us and Abbott is playing a fools game in his dealings with them.
    Acting like some colonialist master will not play very well with their next president, one suspects.

  24. daretotread@619

    I read just this morning that Indonesia is now the 10th largest economy in the WORLD.

    GDP per head may still be low but it is the total economy that matters in a LOT of stuff.

    Don’t confuse a Lad like ESJ, Dareto, it’s not nice 😉

  25. Debt Tax will raise $10 billion

    Reintroducing the Labor tax on superannuation earnings over $100,000 per year would raise $16 billion.

    For those who trust and believe in Abbott…I’ve got a bridge for sale

  26. It is a little ironic that Costello is lobbying against the levy, seeing as it was his government that is partly to blame for placing the Federal Budget in its current predicament, necessitating such a measure in the first place.

  27. I keep thinking to myself, Abbott and co must be doing something right, they are royally pissing off most of their conservative media supporters at the moment. Strange days indeed.

  28. [ Reintroducing the Labor tax on superannuation earnings over $100,000 per year would raise $16 billion. ]

    Seriously?? $16B over what timeframe?? The Libs are actually going to leave THIS low hanging fruit for the ALP to pluck later on?? They may well be that stupid huh??

  29. [Agreed. It is piss poor. Question is why?]

    Our media is sexist. That’s why.

    I want to know whether News Ltd sought Credlin approval to publish the snapped images of the daughter sat there with her date.

  30. And now for the budget. What a lamearse attack on the commission of audit from the ALP.

    According to the Oppo a government isnt allowed to get advice any more.

  33. [ According to the Oppo a government isnt allowed to get advice any more. ]

    Teh CoA was not “advice” ESJ. It was a VERY expensive, taxpayer funded, writing of an agenda for the the Govt by people who believe they own it.

    Really, dropping the minimum wage as an objective gave it away if nothing else.

  34. Well zoidy – like any client you can get advice from whom you please. As to the quality of the advice that is entirely a different matter friend.

  35. Some more facts for ESJ, this time from “The Monthly’s” Hugh White:

    conomic power is the foundation of national power, and Indonesia is one of the world’s fastest growing economies. For the past decade, its economy has grown at an average of around 5% per year. This is slow compared to China’s 10%, but still faster than almost every-where else. As a result, Indonesia is steadily moving up the economic league table. About three years ago its GDP overtook Australia’s. Indonesia will have the tenth largest economy in the world in 2030, when its GDP will be twice the size of Australia’s, according to a recent study by PricewaterhouseCoopers. By 2050 it will be ranked seventh, with a GDP perhaps three times Australia’s.

    http://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2013/june/1370181600/hugh-white/what-indonesia-s-rise-means-australia

  36. In 2013 Indonesia was ranked no 16 in the world GDP and Australia 12. BUT some measures (purchasing power parity) rank it as number 10

  37. [Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2014 at 9:45 pm | PERMALINK
    If Chrissy Pain becomes PM I’ll emigrate.    ]

    If Chrissy Pain becomes PM Labor will be a shoo-in at the next election. They would have more chance with Abbott.

  38. Nice strawman, ESJ – I haven’t seen anyone objecting to the idea of the government seeking advice.

    Criticising who they chose to take it from and the nature of the advice are different issues.

  40. You embellished yesbob and I exposed you. Have the good grace to admit to your uncouth behavior you rotter.

  41. it was the Howard/Costello Government that was largely responsible for the ballooning of entitlement spending aimed at middle class families, the aged, and wealthy retirees, which has arguably contributed much more to Australia’s structural budget deficit than any policies implemented under Labor. Such largesse included baby bonuses, increases in aged pensions, and generous tax breaks for superannuation – including tax free superannuation for retirees and cuts to the superannuation contributions surcharge on higher income earners. His government also made the short-sighted decision to end indexation of petrol excise, which now costs the Budget some $5 billion per year, as well as halving the rate of capital gains tax.

  43. Ed StJ and YesBob

    [Indonesia has a GDP per head of less than $5000.00…yadda yadda]

    Last I looked China wasnt much more than that.

    A very quick look at an IMF forecast for GDP to 2019…
    USD 1,300 billion – Indonesia
    USD 1,700 billion – Australia.

  44. imacca@633

    According to the Oppo a government isnt allowed to get advice any more.


    Teh CoA was not “advice” ESJ. It was a VERY expensive, taxpayer funded, writing of an agenda for the the Govt by people who believe they own it.

    Really, dropping the minimum wage as an objective gave it away if nothing else.

    What the Government, and it’s useful idiot supporters, like ESJ, fail to comprehend, is that when you lower the minimum wage, you drastically lower peoples spending power. As a result, you put undue recessionary pressure on the Economy.

    A Stupid, stupid move.

  47. Edwina StJohn@640

    You embellished yesbob and I exposed you. Have the good grace to admit to your uncouth behavior you rotter.

    Providing the Eco Data is “embellishing” now, is it ?
    Jeepers, talk about desperation.
    You’ve been caught out, and you are too stupid to even realise it.

  48. Mark Kenny says Labor should be magnanimous and let the deficit levy through as good policy.

    http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politics/deficit-levy-tony-abbotts-broken-promise-on-tax-is-in-the-national-interest-20140506-zr5fq.html

    I am in two minds. But I would be happy for Labor to block everything Abbott tries to do. Maybe put up a few counter proposals first to wind back concessions on Super so it is clear that this levy is ideological, like everything else Abbott does. A levy on top incomes. Isn’t that class warfare? Certainly attacking pensioners, other welfare recipients and the working poor is.

  49. Any way, as Samuel Clemments once said, “never argue with an Idiot as they’ll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience”
    Something we need to apply to ESJ and ignore him.

  50. victoria:

    I doubt they did either. But that direct relationship between a Liberal PM and the Murdoch media should always be questioned.

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