Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll in four weeks is well in line with other results to emerge from a busy weekend polling cycle, with Essential Research still to come.

The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.

This is the latest in a polling avalanche which has followed the interruption of Easter and Anzac Day, to which Essential Research is still to be added tomorrow. Three other polls published over the past two days have produced strikingly similar results on the primary vote, from which Newspoll differs in having Labor lower and the Greens higher:

• Galaxy, for the first time adding an online panel component to its live-interview phone polling to produce an enlarged sample of 1391, has the Labor lead at 52-48, with primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 6% for Palmer United.

• A ReachTEL poll conducted on Saturday, also from a larger-than-usual sample of 4016, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, with primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition, 39.6% for Labor, 11.2% for the Greens and 6.0% for Palmer United.

• Morgan’s multi-mode face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted every weekend but compiled fortnightly, has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 according to the conventional two-party preferred method that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election, increasing to 55-45 when preferences were allocated by the respondent. The primary votes are 37.5% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 12% for the Greens and 5.5% for Palmer United.

UPDATE: And now Essential Research comes in entirely unchanged on last week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United. Questions on the deficit tax show the importance of wording in these situations – just as carbon tax questions got a more favourable response when the rationale for them was laid out, inquiry about “a temporary ‘deficit’ tax on high and middle income earners aimed at bringing the budget back to surplus” has support and opposition tied at 34%. However, 48% favour the proposition that “introducing a new ‘deficit’ tax would be a broken promise by the Abbott Government” versus 33% for “it is more important to reduce the deficit than stick to pre-election promises”.

Other findings have “management of the Australian economy” all but unchanged since a year ago, with a total good rating of 40% (up one) and total bad of 31% (down one), but with results by party support having changed beyond recognition; Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen to manage the economy by 33% to 27%; Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26); 23% very concerned about job losses, 34% somewhat concerned and 29% not at all concerned; 77% believing the gap between rich and poor to have increased over the last 10 years, with only 3% for decreased; 29% thinking their own financial situation good versus 26% for poor; “the cost of living” rated by far the economic issue of most concern (56%, with unemployment in second place on 11%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

703 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 12 of 15
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  2. So the home insulation RC that Abbott wanted to nail Labor for “pink batts” etc, doesn’t seem to be going well for him.

    It seems that Private Sector, being it’s usual Private Sector.

    This along with companies donating to the LNP.

  3. [Abbott’s tax is needs to start to cut in well below $180,000 to have much revenue raising impact.]

    Well FWIW the polling tells us that if the threshold is at $80K, it’s a divisive tax in the community. Opinion is pretty split. The support for Tony’s Tax then presumably increases as the threshold increases as the support widens when the question about a $180K threshold is put to voters.

    It’s a no brainer for the Liberals. Back down and make your leader and Treasurer look weak, or go the populist route on increasing the threshold while sticking to your guns on the tax?

  4. the proposed tax “levy” has no economic benefit. It will detract from growth by reducing consumption. It will produce no interest rate reduction and, if it lasts four years and raises $10 billion, the most it could save would be $400 million in annual interest — hardly enough to touch the sides of the annual $12 billion government financing requirement…

  5. What all the kerfuffle over the “deficit tax” will prove is that, yet again, the poorest and most vulnerable in our country will carry the can for Tiny Abbotts “budget emergency” whilst those who can, and should, contribute a whole lot more (Gina, Jamie, Rupert et al), will get off scot free.

    Welcome to the cruel and twisted values of RAbbotts’ Australia.

  6. As I have said previously, I have no problem with principle of the deceit levy. The main issues are:
    1. The lies and hypocrisy
    2. It won’t collect very much. It’s impact will be large sky restricted to those high income earners in the PAYE system.

    Much better that theGovernment attack leakage from the tax system, starting with absurdly generous super concessions for the well off. But that’s it going to happen.

  7. Tom Hawkins #535

    Not sure if political donations are legally tax deductible, but I have no doubt there’d be ways to ensure that outcome.

    You’ll have to ask Mod Lib …. She’s a “tax deduction” expert.

    In the ICAC matter though, the Doyles Restaurant event was evidently not a donation …… just a bit of largesse to keep the pollie in line for future reference.

    But I’m sure it was a business expense tax claim.

  9. Diogenes@530

    Dee

    I’ve heard through the loop that Rockhampton hospital is a basket case.


    That would explain it.

    Queensland Health is basically admitting they have a hospital-wide problem if they are sacking administrators as well as the surgeon.

    Removing the wrong kidney is just unbelievable.

    Dio, I have a colonoscopy every now and again because of family history.

    I get tired sometimes (though really I appreciate it!) of the way that I keep getting asked who I am, and what procedure I am here to have. Maybe three or four times, within twenty minutes or so before I am wheeled in.

    I don’t think the removal of the wrong organ would happen in Armidale.

  11. don

    [I don’t think the removal of the wrong organ would happen in Armidale.]

    I’m sure Rockhampton had lots of checks too.

    I can’t understand how so many people stuffed up. It’s not just the surgeon; the whole team is involved in checking what side is operated on.

  12. Glad I don’t have foxtel

    “@davrosz: So now #Foxtel have that ranting maniac Alan Jones on #SkyNews with that other sleazy grub Graham Richardson. Just how low can Rupert go?”

  13. Joe Hockey is not suing Fairfax. Joe Hockey is simply using whatever legal channels are at his disposal to buy himself some breathing space from further Friends of Joe stories sullying reportage leading up to his first budget.

    At this point all one can say is come back Wayne Swan and let the adults have control of our federal treasury. The current mob just don’t cut it.

  14. guytaur@562

    Glad I don’t have foxtel

    “@davrosz: So now #Foxtel have that ranting maniac Alan Jones on #SkyNews with that other sleazy grub Graham Richardson. Just how low can Rupert go?”

    Neither do I, but you know what, we’re probably not missing much.

  15. [the crew of an asylum seeker boat turned back to Indonesia by the Australian Navy says three extra passengers were added to their boat from the Australian ships.]

    Not only did Abbott treat Indonesia like crap before and during the election campaign, and afterward making things a whole lot worse by transgressing and providing boats to send AS back…he now to add salt to the wounds starts adding his own AS.

    Lucky Indonesia’s SBY isn’t a Mahathir type.

    Hell if I were Indonesia I would sending out the army to arrange as many as boats as possible be launched to Australia. If Abbott wants to treat Indonesia with zero respect expect no consideration in return…see how he copes with an avalanche of boats.

  16. The moron from the local Queensland Health Board is obviously a fan of due process.

    [“When you look at the surgeon’s record it’s appalling and he shouldn’t be allowed to continue operating,” Mr Ware told The Courier-Mail.

    “The board has zero tolerance for botched surgery.

    “There’s obviously systemic failures in our patient safety systems.”]

  17. Alan Jones who tag teams with Rat Richo on Fox had Tanya Plibersek on as a guest. What happened? HT to ShockJocky – read from the bottom up

    [
    Commoner ShockyJocky ‏@IH8SHOKJOKS 5m
    @AngelaAu2 @tanya_plibersek Brilliant. Too many facts for Parrot 2 comprehend. He stuck solid to his song book regardless how wrong he was

    AlanJones says Albo/Shorten result alienates rank & file. @tanya_plibersek again refutes him #richojones. Tanya’s finished. I rate her 9/10

    Richo can’t believe Labor primary vote, makes Labor irrelevant. @tanya_plibersek gives a smart considerate reply. #richojones

    AlanJones rants on & on about debt. @tanya_plibersek calls #CoA written to order Govt document. Parrot calls that nonsense.

    AlanJones doesn’t like @tanya_plibersek saying MRRT should not be repealed while families have to pay debt tax. #richojones

    AlanJones doesn’t like Labor/Greens blocking Carbon Tax repeal. Rants on & on about Abbott winning election. Has mandate. #richojones

    AlanJones doesn’t like @tanya_plibersek given him plenty of facts to refute his distortions. Parrot dismisses AAA credit ratings #richojones

    AlanJones now rants at @tanya_plibersek on blocking Abbott’s program. Debt rant has started. Talks all over Tanya. #richojones

    AlanJones says the bulk of students at Canberra Unis are foreign students. @tanya_plibersek hits him with facts.

    @TroyTwright @tanya_plibersek Facts don’t matter to Parrot do they? Classic cherry picking rubbish.

    AlanJones tells @tanya_plibersek her National Rental Affordable Scheme was a failure. She refutes his “facts”. He’s proven wrong over & over

    AlanJones says Labor is responsible for bad relationship with Indonesia & Abbott has repaired relationship. @tanya_plibersek refutes Parrot

    AlanJones tells @tanya_plibersek that our relationship with Indonesia isn’t off the rails. TP says no Ind Ambassador here.

    AlanJones is slobberingly all over @tanya_plibersek early up, expect rant mode on debt to kick in anytime. #richojones
    ]

  18. Thomas. Paine.@565
    Not only did Abbott treat Indonesia like crap before and during the election campaign, and afterward making things a whole lot worse by transgressing and providing boats to send AS back…he now to add salt to the wounds starts adding his own AS.

    Lucky Indonesia’s SBY isn’t a Mahathir type.

    Abbott might be in for a nasty surprise once the Indonesians hold their election latter this year, their next President will be no where near as cooperative to Australia as SBY is

  19. Indonesia is povo and will accept what Australia imposes on them. It was intolerable allowing third party transit (and no doubt having its corrupt military profit from this trade) and appropriately the Australian Government after many years has finally acted to stop this fraud.

  20. Re Sprocket @567 – Alan Jones appears to live in an alternative reality. And yet he’s the most popular radio presenter in Sydney. He seems to be a favorite of taxi drivers and small shopkeepers. It is very disturbing that so many Sydneysiders get their information about how the country is travelling almost exclusively from the Murdochracy and the likes of Alan Jones.

  22. Why do you keep knocking Australia zoidlord? Yes we do have the P.I.C.T/ Labor Party but it is nothing like Indonesia.

  25. No problem with calling Indonesia corrupt, if that’s the case, but Australia should accept that it is probably just as corrupt.

  29. For those of you come from the BK school of objectivity:

    1) Tommy Suharto gets found guilty of corruption
    2) Tommy has the judge killed
    3) Tommy gets re-sentenced to 4 years for the corruption and the murder of the judge
    4) Tommy spends 2 years in a luxury villa in the grounds of the prison and is then released

    That would never happen in Australia.

  31. Of course all of these dodgy contributions we’re hearing about at ICAC are being part-paid by the taxpayer. The individuals and corporations concerned will be claiming them as business expenses of one sort or another.

  32. Edwina StJohn@569

    Indonesia is povo and

    will have a larger economy than ours within a decade.

    Fair dinkum, you really are a schmendrick ESJ.
    Do you actually think before you spew your racist nonsense ?

  33. “@JuliaGillardGPE: For Global Action Week @globaleducation, I’m starting @JuliaGillardGPE – my passion for education in tweets. #GAW2014”

  34. Let’s not get too dewy eyed about Indonesia being the same as Australia.

    Indonesia is considerably more corrupt than Australia according to the most commonly used measure which is the Corruption Index published yearly by Transparency International.

    Australia is about 9th cleanest in the world and Indonesia is about 100th.

  37. Edwina StJohn@572

    Why do you keep knocking Australia zoidlord? Yes we do have the P.I.C.T/ Labor Party but it is nothing like Indonesia.

    Well, there is one Australian Political party thats being dragged through the ICAC corruption inquiry at the moment, and it aint the ALP

  43. LOSING THE LEAD!

    The American Middle Class Is No Longer the World’s Richest….
    The struggles of the poor in the United States are even starker than those of the middle class. A family at the 20th percentile of the income distribution in this country makes significantly less money than a similar family in Canada, Sweden, Norway, Finland or the Netherlands. Thirty-five years ago, the reverse was true.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/upshot/the-american-middle-class-is-no-longer-the-worlds-richest.html?action=click&module=Search&region=searchResults&mabReward=relbias%3Ar&url=http%3A%2F%2Fquery.nytimes.com%2Fsearch%2Fsitesearch%2F%3Faction%3Dclick%26contentCollection%3DBusiness%2520Day%26region%3DTopBar%26WT.nav%3DsearchWidget%26module%3DSearchSubmit%26pgtype%3Darticle%23%2Fmiddle%2520class%2520no%2520longer%2520wealthiest&_r=3

    Giving the lie to Joe Hockey’ Rising( economic) tide.

  44. Try to keep on the meds yesbob – you may feel better but the underlying problem obviously hasnt been resolved.

  46. I think we can all accept that Australia is relatively free of corruption by international standards, while Indonesia has some serious problems in that regard. That’s no excuse for the dodgy dealings we’re hearing about in ICAC and the likely illegalities and human rights violations in our treatment of asylum seekers.

  47. A simple article for ESJ to comprehend:

    http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/07/09/indonesias-eclipse-of-australia/

    Indonesia’s eclipse of Australia?
    9 July 2012

    Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum

    Already Indonesia has become an economy larger than that of Australia, with GDP measured in purchasing power parity terms

    For many years after Independence, Australia was the dominant economy and the dominant political power at the end of the Indonesian archipelago, despite the immense disparity in relative population numbers.

    With the resumption of solid economic ground after the Asian financial crisis, the economic numbers have turned and, as many have it, Indonesia is on the way over the next three or four decades to becoming one of the four to six biggest economies in the world

  48. 551
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2014 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    briefly:

    Surely that information is in the Census data, esp at the household level?

    I need to check more deeply…!

  50. Edwina StJohn@594

    Try to keep on the meds yesbob – you may feel better but the underlying problem obviously hasnt been resolved.

    So, it’s the ALP and not the LNP that’s being dragged through ICAC atm is it ?

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