The Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1391 – quite a bit bigger than Galaxy polls have traditionally been in the past – which shows Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 at the last such poll a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and Palmer United is up two to 6%. The poll also finds 65% opposed to the paid parental leave scheme proceeding “in the current budgetary environment”, compared with 23% in support. Seventy-two per cent say they would rate the proposed deficit levy a broken promise, after being prompted that “Tony Abbott announced before the election that there would be no new taxes”, compared with 21% who thought otherwise.
UPDATE: Possum, who reads more carefully than some of us, observes that the higher sample size is due to a change in methodology, with the live interviewing (which I believe in Galaxy’s case includes a subset of mobile phone polling) supplemented by an online panel.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has Labor’s lead up from 52-48 to 54-46, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 39% for the Coalition. More to follow.
UPDATE 3: Full ReachTEL results here, showing primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition (down 1.1% on a poll conducted in fortnight ago), 39.6% for Labor (up 2.2%), 11.2% for the Greens (down 0.3%) and 6.0% for Palmer United (up 0.4%). Also featured are leadership ratings on a five-point scale, in which Tony Abbott has a very good or good rating from 26.5% (down 4.3%) and poor or very poor from 56.8% (up 5.0%), while Bill Shorten’s respective numbers are 20.8% (up 1.8%) and 42.2% (down 0.4%). A 1% deficit levy has a net unfavourable if applied at $80,000 per annum (34.2% to 40.7%), becoming strongly favourable at $180,000 (59.3% to 23.4%), but 60.2% believe such a levy would break an election promise against 23.5% who think otherwise. Co-payments for doctor visits have 33.5% support and 56.5% opposition, with 59.0% thinking it a broken promise against 28.4% not; and 47.2% would support reducing the size of the public service to bring the budget to surplus versus 34.3% opposed.
UPDATE 4 (Morgan): Morgan now offers its fortnightly result as well, part of a glut of polling as everyone returns to the party following consecutive long weekends (Newspoll to follow this evening). It adds to the general picture of a blowout in having Labor’s lead at 55-45 (up from 52-48) on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 (up from 52-48) on previous election preferences, the primary votes being 37% for Labor (up three), 37.5% for the Coalition (down one), 12% for the Greens (down one) and 5.5% for Palmer United (up half).
[J341983
Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 6:30 pm | PERMALINK
I’m watching bloody 7 News… where the hell is this Budget report?]
With Morrison and Lara Bingle?
[ ruawake
Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 6:21 pm | Permalink
The thing about the Packer biffo is that he was pissed off over a Ch9 news vehicle lurking near his home, so he calls the CEO of Nine and tells him to arrive pronto. Then apparently it ends in biffo. ]
Think of the thousands of people Channel 9 would have staked out, homes etc over years when KP ran 9.
Different when they believe the boot is on the other foot ?
But no one was staking out JP anyway…..
Do health insurance funds currently charge higher fees for smokers?
Some of these polls have been diluted by being running over two weeks (things have got seriously worse for Abbott in recent days). Perhaps the real level is 56-44.
[1496….Steve777]
…Furthermore, donors’ nominees populate the upper echelons of the Liberals. Business not only fund the Liberals and write their policies, they staff the party and make the decisions. Business has colonised the Liberal Party.
Hockey telling lies about the age pension
How about this crap. Jail the bugger.
[Mr Williams was questioned about a “smear campaign” against a former Labor MP for Newcastle, Jodi Mackay.
He admitted Buildev paid for anonymous posters to undermine her chances of being re-elected in 2011 – but said the Tinkler-owned company did not see any reason to put its name on the flyers.]
Of course it frigging didn’t. It was breaking the electoral law.
Great to see the LNP in the poo, poll-wise, but there are still what?, three budgets to go before the next election.
However, shock-pick-myself-up-off-the-floor, Red Neck Radio 6PR has just reported Morgan’s 10 point lead to Labor.
Not in living memory his this ever happened from the station which gave Howard Sattler a living.
This is akin to the Vatican admitting the Devil is alive and well and living in a Rome suburb.
[Heard on the news that the CoA has recommended that health insurance premiums be based on a person weight.]
This is beginning of the end of universal health coverage. Next they will want to increase premiums for a load of other health related issues.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes · 1h
#ReachTEL Poll 2% deficit levy on those earning >$180000 pa: Support 59.3 Oppose 23.4 #auspol]
I know the govt was mooted to be increasing the threshold above $80,000pa, but was an actual final figure released? I didn’t see it if it was.
[1508…Tricot]
You are a brave listener. I’m too delicate to tune into to 6PR…
Who will be PM next week? Not that certain anymore.
@ confessions 1510
Of particularly amusing note was that Coalition supporters were even more supportive of a 180k+ levy than Labor and even /Greens/ supporters.
However, of equal importance was that some 60% of voters would consider it a broken promise either way.
[Heard on the news that the CoA has recommended that health insurance premiums be based on a person weight.]
What the actually recommended was health insurers could charge whatever they liked. Old, Fat, Smoker, Dengue Fever risk, whatever takes their fancy.
Which leads to some people being unable to afford Private Insurance, no probs they can use er Medic…. Ooops sorry.
@1512 – I would be BEYOND shocked if there was anything like that yet.
Campbell Newman Qld govt on the way to becoming the new Joh Bjelke-Petersen and Russ Hinze of our time.
Mining companies writing your Environmental policies.
I think we should be asking Mr Newam if a Pedophile is in charge of childrens policies and a Rapist in charge of Womans affairs…….a mobster the head of Police Dept, a conman head of Treasury….and a dickhead Premier..
Can you just imagine the private insurance company demanding you present yourself to be weighed when you make a claim, and then rejecting your claim on the basis that you were 2kg over or under the weight you declared to them?
And people going on starvation diets/not drinking to get their weight down prior to “weigh in”.
Ah the joys of a for-profit health insurance system.
briefly
[What evidence do you have that donations made in public at fund-raising events elicit official favours or special grants or other illegal benefits from Labor? Who says Labor sells “access”?]
Just how gullible are you? Labor are selling access by asking for $15K to meet Shorten. Unless the food is really really expensive.
Business people pay those prices because it is worth it. They aren’t charitable donations because they think Hockey or Shorten is such a fun bloke. They know they will get a return and that’s why they keep doing it.
GG
[Very strong words for practices that are legal.]
As I’ve told you many times, the biggest problem with corruption isn’t about what it illegal; it’s about what is legal.
@ Diogenes 1518
I agree with the thrust of your opinion that access to Shorten is being sold for fundraising purposes, but there /is/ still a difference between a party that discloses all of these donors (above $1k) and one that does not.
The solution is to outlaw all such private donations and publicly fund all parties that meet the threshold for registering a party.
[Of particularly amusing note was that Coalition supporters were even more supportive of a 180k+ levy than Labor and even /Greens/ supporters.]
I bet they were. Raising the threshold at which Tony’s Tax kicks in is the only viable option for them to get out this mess after Abbott has completely mishandled the original leak.
The coalition predicted in its midyear Budget update that the commission would spend about $1 million examining the innards of government spending.
But calculations suggest taxpayers coughed up more than double that amount after a small army of bureaucrats were co-opted to produce the five-month study. Publicly available figures show it cost taxpayers about $2.5 million to produce the audit.
It cost $1.9 million for expert staff drafted in from the departments of Finance, Treasury and the Prime Minister and Cabinet to work on the study.
The head of the commission’s secretariat, Peter Crone, was paid $157,000 to oversee the probe, while chairman Tony Shepherd was paid $85,000.
Basically the people behind the CoA want to rape every Australian and put the money in their pockets… turning is into a carbon copy of a totally fucked USA.
None of these people believe a country belongs to the people.
In short (no pun intended), Labor has to sell access to Shorten because otherwise they won’t be able to keep up with the torrent of private money flowing into Liberal coffers. The union movement alone can’t provide anywhere near the same level of funding as big business can, so they’ve got to hedge their bets.
Public funding would allow them to discard the influence of both groups /and/ pursue policy that might offend either of them without the risk of losing the money necessary to campaign.
We’d see more gutsy policy on both sides of the political divide.
Abbott treats the Indonesians like sh*t. He has not even formally replied to SBY’s invitation to a meeting. “On Saturday, Dr Yudhoyono’s spokesman told AAP he only knew of the decision through media reports.”
[INDONESIA has received no explanation for Prime Minister Tony Abbott postponing a meeting with the president, nor any indication that asylum seekers are being sent back to its territory, a government spokesman says…
The relationship has been on ice since last year’s revelations that Australia had spied on Dr Yudhoyono and his wife, a bombshell that saw Indonesia halt co-operation pending a new code of conduct.
Talks on the code have crawled, but the Bali meeting could have provided a breakthrough.
Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa revealed the offer to Mr Abbott on April 7, when he told AAP the talks had taken a more positive turn.
On Saturday, Dr Yudhoyono’s spokesman told AAP he only knew of the decision through media reports.
Agus Barnas, spokesman for Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry for Politics, Law and Security, said he checked with the foreign ministry on Monday and it had no explanation for Mr Abbott’s no-show…
Indonesia has also received no notice of a boat turnback…
“If I was going to take a negative view it would be that Abbott’s reason was just that he did not want to meet President SBY in person,” he said…
A spokeswoman for Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said she won’t be representing the prime minister on this occasion.]
<a href="http://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/indonesia-in-dark-over-abbott-no-show/story-e6frfkui-1226906347396
Arrnea
I agree it’s better that Labor discloses it. I’m surprised the Libs can get away with not disclosing it.
@ Diogenes 1526
It’s incredible what you can get away with when you write the laws, isn’t it?
Access is one thing… regular sponsorship is another.
If SBY wants to get a response from Tabbot I suggest he arrange for a few thousand boats to make their way to Australia over the next few weeks… maybe followed by some Indonesia warships.
Excellent article on Rupert’s latest dalliance
[LOUISVILLE, Ky. — On the afternoon of the Kentucky Derby, Rand Paul, the state’s junior Republican senator and likely presidential candidate, spilled out of an elevator in the exclusive Jockey Club Suites of Churchill Downs with an entourage of women with flower-adorned hats, men in seersucker suits and Rupert Murdoch.
Mr. Paul’s guest was a special one. The libertarian brand of politics championed by Mr. Paul and his deep reservations about American intervention overseas have prompted more than a bit of wariness in The Wall Street Journal’s editorial pages, on Fox News and in other influential media outlets owned by Mr. Murdoch. For Mr. Paul, the would-be candidate, and Mr. Murdoch, arguably the most powerful broker in Republican politics, Saturday’s day at the races was filled with betting, losing, drinking and a long chat over kettle corn. It was part getting-to-know-you and part political audition, and marked a potential turn in the race for president.]
http://nyti.ms/Q5kar7
diog
Company A has an interest in Project B, pays Bill $10,000.
The project goes ahead and Journalists query the donation because the donation has been declared
Company A has an interest in Project B, pays Joe $10,000. Nobody knows it has happened.
Surely its not too hard to comprehend the difference?
I’m wondering if banner waving Libs will turn up to the March in May.
@ J341983 1528
They both amount to currying favour with money, which is not a good thing for any democracy which purports to have universal suffrage and one vote, one value.
@ ruawake 1531
I guess you missed Diog’s 1526.
fess
[Do health insurance funds currently charge higher fees for smokers?]
No they’re not allowed to. Life insurance can be more if you are a smoker but health insurance is “community rated” not based on individual risk.
[
Gary
Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 4:22 pm | Permalink
I can’t believe people are belly aching over Shorten. Is 54 – 46 not good enough?
BTW, have you heard the adage governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them? The last election proved that once again.
]
Oh I can, civil war in the Labor camp is the Liberals only hope. It has served them well. Note who they and accept what they are. It’s easy to be a Liberal dressed up as a concern troll.
I reckon Rabbott cancelled the trip purely to stick the finger up at Indonesia.
@1533… I certainly don’t think it’s good either way.
ru
Yes, that’s what I said in 1526.
Free speech in the age of Liberal enlightenment.
Come on down George Brandis & the Bolt….
“Please be warned that we monitor social networking sites and if you breach the media regulations in the future, suspension proceedings may be initiated against you,” the pro forma warning letter states……. Don’t Tweet!
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/05/nsw-liberals-gag-reform-twitter
@ J341983 1537
Then what’s your opinion on public funding of political parties?
Dio:
Lifetime health cover meant that health insurance premiums would be lower for younger people, so I guess that notion of ‘community rated’ has already been somewhat traduced.
[Thomas. Paine.
Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 6:45 pm | PERMALINK
Campbell Newman Qld govt on the way to becoming the new Joh Bjelke-Petersen and Russ Hinze of our time.
Mining companies writing your Environmental policies.]
Newman’s threat to the ice cream company Ben & Jerrys over its criticism of his Barrier Reef policies is a direct ‘thank you’ to the mining lobby for its generous donations.
It’s ideal, but no one who actually makes the decisions on these things is going to reduce their funding potential.
BTW – I forced myself to watched 7 News to see Mark Riley’s report.
So some Canberra Printers can expect no rest this coming weekend.
Cabinet Meeting on Wednesday last possible time for decisions, kite flying over, no more pretend leaks, a couple of days to insert new decisions, check that things add up and off to the printer.
What a shambles from a government that told us for two years they had 50 prepared policies.
[
Diogenes
Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 6:51 pm | Permalink
Arrnea
I agree it’s better that Labor discloses it. I’m surprised the Libs can get away with not disclosing it.
]
Well they can until ICAC lifts up the rock. It is fun watching the creepy crawlies run, run, run.
Most Budget papers don’t get printed until the weekend before. I’ve been in Budget lock up on the night and brought stuff in straight from the printers.
[1518
Diogenes
briefly
What evidence do you have that donations made in public at fund-raising events elicit official favours or special grants or other illegal benefits from Labor? Who says Labor sells “access”?
Just how gullible are you? Labor are selling access by asking for $15K to meet Shorten. Unless the food is really really expensive.]
You have made the allegation. Where is your evidence? Labor can fund raise…in the open, no secrets, no concealment. The ratio is that for every $1.00 business donate to Labor, about $5.00 is openly donated to the Liberals. A good deal more goes to the Liberals as “dark” money…the political equivalent of black ops.
If you think you know of any current and otherwise undisclosed case where an ALP politician has granted a commercial favour to a business donor – traded a decision, contract, grant, license, concession or other advantage in return for a financial gift or favour – you should say so. Otherwise, your remarks are just a slur.
@1542
It’s a threat from Newman & Big Companies to say to small companies, get out of our way, or be forced out.
Diogs,
If you are going to insist that normal behaviour which is totally legal is corruption then “corruption” has no real meaning.
[confessions
Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 7:00 pm | PERMALINK
Dio:
Lifetime health cover meant that health insurance premiums would be lower for younger people, so I guess that notion of ‘community rated’ has already been somewhat traduced.]
I think you pay an extra 2% premium pa for each year you delay taking out private insurance after turning 31. There is a sort of rationale for this in that your chance of needing to claim increases as you get older. Without this provision, premiums would probably higher as most contributors would be in the older age brackets.