The Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1391 – quite a bit bigger than Galaxy polls have traditionally been in the past – which shows Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 at the last such poll a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and Palmer United is up two to 6%. The poll also finds 65% opposed to the paid parental leave scheme proceeding “in the current budgetary environment”, compared with 23% in support. Seventy-two per cent say they would rate the proposed deficit levy a broken promise, after being prompted that “Tony Abbott announced before the election that there would be no new taxes”, compared with 21% who thought otherwise.
UPDATE: Possum, who reads more carefully than some of us, observes that the higher sample size is due to a change in methodology, with the live interviewing (which I believe in Galaxy’s case includes a subset of mobile phone polling) supplemented by an online panel.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has Labor’s lead up from 52-48 to 54-46, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 39% for the Coalition. More to follow.
UPDATE 3: Full ReachTEL results here, showing primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition (down 1.1% on a poll conducted in fortnight ago), 39.6% for Labor (up 2.2%), 11.2% for the Greens (down 0.3%) and 6.0% for Palmer United (up 0.4%). Also featured are leadership ratings on a five-point scale, in which Tony Abbott has a very good or good rating from 26.5% (down 4.3%) and poor or very poor from 56.8% (up 5.0%), while Bill Shorten’s respective numbers are 20.8% (up 1.8%) and 42.2% (down 0.4%). A 1% deficit levy has a net unfavourable if applied at $80,000 per annum (34.2% to 40.7%), becoming strongly favourable at $180,000 (59.3% to 23.4%), but 60.2% believe such a levy would break an election promise against 23.5% who think otherwise. Co-payments for doctor visits have 33.5% support and 56.5% opposition, with 59.0% thinking it a broken promise against 28.4% not; and 47.2% would support reducing the size of the public service to bring the budget to surplus versus 34.3% opposed.
UPDATE 4 (Morgan): Morgan now offers its fortnightly result as well, part of a glut of polling as everyone returns to the party following consecutive long weekends (Newspoll to follow this evening). It adds to the general picture of a blowout in having Labor’s lead at 55-45 (up from 52-48) on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 (up from 52-48) on previous election preferences, the primary votes being 37% for Labor (up three), 37.5% for the Coalition (down one), 12% for the Greens (down one) and 5.5% for Palmer United (up half).
@ Jackol 1442
This is solved by providing each and every party that meets the basic requirement of sufficient members/nominating signatures with a base amount of funding. On top of that, funding per vote should happen.
Then a cap should be placed on membership fees to eliminate its use as a lurk for hiding donations.
sortius @sortius 54s
Brandis’ anti-piracy proposals hit Cabinet already http://delimiter.com.au/2014/05/05/zero-consultation-anti-piracy-proposals-already-cabinet/ …
Hockey hasn’t named his lawyer/s.
What if the lawyer is Brandis QC?
Jackol makes a good point about a downside to publicly funded campaigns. One I hadn’t thought of. Cheers.
zoid:
I was reading that story about the QCoal employee earlier. $10,000 per month for doing work for the Liberal party, and this looks to be the outcome of that:
[The ABC’s 7.30 program revealed last week that farmer Garry Reed faces financial ruin after losing a legal battle to stop the creek diversion and having costs awarded against him.
The diversion was approved by the State Government without requiring a new or amended environmental impact assessment, despite being classed as an assessment that carried “risk of serious harm”.
Mr Mackay has chaired the LNP’s state environment and heritage protection committee, which develops policy for discussion at the party’s annual conference, since being voted on to the committee in 2012.
Shortly after coming to power in 2012 the LNP introduced a bill to remove “green tape” or what it considered to be unnecessary or superfluous environmental regulation.]
1439
Diogenes
If you go back in the thread you’ll find the difference is Labor reveals the identity of the donors/participants.
So the bribery and cash for access is more transparent at Labor.]
What evidence do you have that donations made in public at fund-raising events elicit official favours or special grants or other illegal benefits from Labor? Who says Labor sells “access”?
The lobbyists holding party positions is the first place to start. Thru ICAC we have seen the NSW Libs have Gambling, Licenced Clubs, Restaurants and catering, on and on on the Libs committees or running the show.
Is their job to lobby the Liberal Party or run it? Remember Clive got boned/resigned over this in Qld.
Abbott said he would clean it up but was ignored. It would be a great start.
Apparently we can afford to have Anti-piracy proposals, but can’t afford Payments to people and families to survive?
wtf?
[This is solved by providing each and every party that meets the basic requirement of sufficient members/nominating signatures with a base amount of funding. On top of that, funding per vote should happen.
Then a cap should be placed on membership fees to eliminate its use as a lurk for hiding donations.]
Seems unlikely to me that Australians would want to give the motoring enthusiasts party as much as liberal and labor. And you’d have to have the base amount very significant or it is simply a barrier to the involvement of new parties.
@WeWantPaul 1459
It’s a small price to pay for a democracy that isn’t beholden to private donors.
This puts a different complexion on the who bought the packer photos and why – maybe the worst of them will not be published ?
[ Explosive photographs and video footage of a punch-up between James Packer and David Gyngell are understood to have sold for more than $200,000 – to one of Packer’s best friends.
As the billionaire gaming mogul nursed his wounds – and, potentially, his ego – after the fight with the Nine Entertainment Group boss on Sunday, a media bidding war led to the cost of the explosive photos rising well above initial estimates.
Fairfax Media understands News Corp Australia eventually paid the hefty price for the 50-plus images and video footage, which hit the media market on Monday morning. And in an ironic twist, PS can reveal that among the highest bidders for the images was Gyngell’s own network, Channel 9.
About 12.45pm, Lachlan Murdoch, a great friend of Packer and Gyngell, and a non-executive co-chairman of News Corp, arrived in a four-wheel-drive and entered through a side entrance.
Murdoch’s arrival at Packer’s Bondi home this afternoon presents News Corp, the Murdoch press, with a challenging political minefield to navigate.
…A few of the photos have been published on News Corp websites on Monday afternoon with the words “News Corp” heavily watermarked over them.
…The Packer and Murdoch camps have engaged in a mutually beneficial relationship for a considerable period of time, most notably in the Murdoch press’s significant support for Packer’s Barangaroo casino development. ]
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/private-sydney/photos-of-james-packer-and-david-gyngell-punchup-understood-to-have-sold-for-more-than-200000-20140505-zr4wj.html#ixzz30pFG7sLh
Was the Anti-Piracy in the Commission of Audit? and Will it show up in the Budget?
The Libs appear to have a structural problem with the appointment of lobbyists as Directors of their Party.
This is what Clive Palmer has been campaigning against in Queensland. Jackie Kelly talks about it in the interview quoted earlier.
The threats to people expressing their views is a strange development for a Party that professes to champion free speech and the rights of the individual.
And heavens forbid that the Australian people should have the opportunity to judge parties equally on their policies (or lack thereof) rather than on who can spend the most on advertising thanks to private donations(!)
The one with Gyngell lying barefoot on the footpath looked a bit silly.
Perchance I was preparing for a bit of street brawling I would wear some decent footwear so I could deploy nut kicking and other gentlemanly manoeuvres.
[1455….confessions]
confessions, so Q Coal have one of their own working inside the Liberal Party? Surely this counts as a donation? In any case it illustrates that the Liberal Party has been bought and paid for by the miners.
It seems both Liberal party candidates in the Tasmanian upper house elections on Saturday have lost. Tasmanians obviously don’t like party politics in their upper house (or want a potential handbrake on the liberal government). No father son team either..
Shellbell,
[Perchance I was preparing for a bit of street brawling I would wear some decent footwear so I could deploy nut kicking and other gentlemanly manoeuvres.]
Ever the ruffian…
shellbell
With Gyngell being so much shorter than Packer he adopted the right option. Take your best shot and then immediately go the grapple.
Does Mod Lib still do those seat projection, electoral wipeout calculations, or has he/she gone all shy?
Seem Joe’s gone a week early?
[EXCLUSIVE: Details of the federal government’s tough #Budget2014 next | @Riley7News reports #7NewsSyd ]
briefly:
Apparently the owner of QCoal is one of the LNP’s biggest donors, but fear not as at the time Newman waved away this policy coziness thus:
[Queensland Premier Campbell Newman said at the time that the state was “in the coal business” and if people wanted new schools and hospitals they had to accept that the state needed royalties from coal mining.]
Transparency. Schmansparency.
Channel 7 6pm report on Packer/Gyngel “Bondi Brawl” hit every negative angle possible, including local resident woman with baby commenting on such “privileged, highly educated” people behaving this way and reporters raising issue about how criminal charges could impact on casino/media owners.
[1463
Greensborough Growler
The Libs appear to have a structural problem with the appointment of lobbyists as Directors of their Party.]
a “structural problem”….that’s a polite way to put it. The Liberals are owned and operated by selected industries and firms. Liberal representatives are no longer answerable to their members or constituents or even to each other. Their loyalty has been sold off. Liberal politics has become a form of prostitution.
[1472…confessions]
Newman has pimped his government. They’re disgraceful.
Except that prostitutes generally have a higher level of morality than the Liberals.
Question, with the apparent appointment of lobbyists as Directors of the LNP Party, would that mean also corruption is more apparent in Private Sector?
newspoll tonight….Morgan and ReachTEL earlier….bludgertrack will be good reading!!!
[newspoll tonight….Morgan and ReachTEL earlier….bludgertrack will be good reading!!!]
Newspoll could be 50-50. 😆
briefly:
And it appears the Abbott govt is following in the Newman footsteps.
@ Jake 1470
Dunno, but I’ll do one – Morgan’s state breakdowns indicate 90 to 95 seats to Labor.
[1476
sohar
Except that prostitutes generally have a higher level of morality than the Liberals.]
Yes, to be compared with Liberals is an unfair reflection on sex workers…
As for Newspoll, I’ll put my money on a 53 ALP result.
Re: My 1483
Provided, of course, the poll was taken post-CoA. If it was taken pre-CoA, it’ll be 51 to the ALP.
Wow.
According to the Morgan poll, Labor is ahead 58.5% to 41.5% in Victoria.
@1483
I said earlier I think it’ll be 53-47 with it spun as “could have been much worse” and “Shorten still under-performing”
Michael Janda @mikejanda 1m
Commission of Audit chairman Shepherd says deficit levy has advantage of getting the budget back to surplus faster http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-05/audit-chairman-shepherd-says-deficit-tax-may-reduce-spending-cu/5431768?section=business …
Sure Sure.
@ Bobalot 1485
And 59(!) in South Australia.
The thing about the Packer biffo is that he was pissed off over a Ch9 news vehicle lurking near his home, so he calls the CEO of Nine and tells him to arrive pronto. Then apparently it ends in biffo.
Other people have had media camped outside their homes for weeks and are unable to do a thing. A call to the CEO would go unanswered and it you stood on a journos toe you would be charged with assault.
I wonder if ACA will cover it or cover it up.
@ ruawake 1489
ACA wouldn’t know investigative journalism if it hit them in the face with a salami knob.
Of course if the NSW ALP wanted to give the NSW Libs the old one-two rather than just the one, it would get take on a popular and able leader rather than Robertson
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-05/currawong-sale-inquiry3a-john-robertson-to-appear-today/5430852?section=nsw
[1480
confessions
briefly:
And it appears the Abbott govt is following in the Newman footsteps.]
It is absolutely enraging…they think we are all utter dimwits, that they will get away with everything. They’re abominable.
Hey Wazza you need cred before it can be hit.
[Senior Liberal backbencher Warren Entsch says the Commission of Audit has “frightened the bejeezus” out of old people and warned that the government’s proposed deficit tax levy will hit the government’s credibility.]
[Channel 7 6pm report on Packer/Gyngel “Bondi Brawl” hit every negative angle possible, including local resident woman with baby commenting on such “privileged, highly educated” people behaving this way and reporters raising issue about how criminal charges could impact on casino/media owners.]
Under normal circumstances Packer would face no threat to his Sydney casino licence from this fracas.
However the manner in which he obtained the licence, together with the ICAC revelations, does raise questions over whether Baird might seek to use this as an excuse to walk away from the deal. It probably depends on what contractual obligations exist.
Entsch has always been one of the good ones and not afraid to call bullshit… something that Turnbull seems afraid to do now.
They key to the issue of donations having an undue influence on politicians is transparency. Donors to the LNP want to hide in the shadows, a very good reason to shine some light. What are they afraid of? That they be seen to be trying to influence the political process. Afraid that about half their customers who don’t vote right wing (and a smaller proportion of their shareholders) won’t like it? No excuse. If they don’t want to be on the public record don’t donate.
[1483
Arrnea Stormbringer
As for Newspoll, I’ll put my money on a 53 ALP result.]
Newspoll were surveying over the weekend. I reckon 55/45 +/- 2 is about right.
It is very rare for Newspoll to record a shift of 5% in one step. Maybe this will be one of those instances. Abbott is not only going to break a promise, he’s denied that his act will amount to a broken promise at all. He has added insult to injury.
The shift in net-sat says it all. Abbott has debased himself.
I’m watching bloody 7 News… where the hell is this Budget report?
The Libs/Murdoch must have some on Turnbull because he has turned out to be Tony-lite.
Heard on the news that the CoA has recommended that health insurance premiums be based on a person weight.
Not much having a crack at Palmer…..
But seriously??? This how trivial and pathetic this Abbott govt is…