Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,110 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. poroti

    I thought you were making a serious suggestions for the Greens to actually spend some money on defence equipment.

    But then I noticed that the beastly things have guns, rockets and missiles.

    What were you thinking?

  2. AA,

    [Some one wrote earlier that the Navy need air support.]

    I thought Boerwar had that covered earlier with his boomerang super-weapon.

  3. I suppose that a rough rule of Greens thumb for the difference between offensive and defensive equipment is that offensive equipment kills people and defensive equipment does not?

  4. Water pistols were popular when I was a kid.

    Maybe the Greens could use those to reduce military spending consistent with our security needs 🙂

  5. Just thought I would post this link up for BK as thanks for his Dawn Patrol links..

    And I also dedicate this link to all the Royalists who are loving every single minute of the saturation coverage of Kate, William and Georges free trip down under.

    (It’s not one of mine… I just found it…. psssts and I love it)

  6. [Water pistols were popular when I was a kid.

    Maybe the Greens could use those to reduce military spending consistent with our security needs]

    Fill them with holy water and we’ll be protected from the vampires of the Transylvanian Military 😉

  7. Scott Ludlam:
    http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australias-defence-election-issues/

    Nothing here to indicate the Greens do not support having an air force.

    [The Greens believe the Joint Strike Fighter project is one striking example of poor strategic thinking leading to a poor procurement decision. The aircraft is a white elephant and that Australia should cut its losses as other countries have done. Our motion to the Senate calling on the government to urgently examine alternative capability development for the RAAF given the long lead times for project development, acquisition and entry into force was rejected by the old parties.]

    [The 2013 White Paper devoted four paragraphs out of 148 pages to the security challenges posed by climate change. While providing a perfunctory acknowledgement that climate is a security issue, there is no indication that capability development is being informed by the changing nature of the security threats we face; we are left with the uncomfortable realisation that Australian defence policy is still geared to meeting the challenges of the 20th century.

    Given the focus of very many other like-minded nations on climate security, Australia is unprepared and ill-equipped for the likely threats and situations we will face in the age of climate change. Australia’s security lies in preventing the worst impacts of climate change in our region and redirecting military expenditure to meet broader definitions of security.]

  8. Not sure what Boerwar and centre are on about but if the greens are against the 12 billion being spent on the jets that are still to be designed it would seem he is not alone.

    Jet fighter deal a $12b ‘dud’

    Liberal MP launches extraordinary attack on Abbott government’s multibillion-dollar buy.
    Contains: poll This article contains a video.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-dennis-jensen-attacks-joint-strike-fighter-order-as-a-dud-decision-20140423-zqy6a.html

  9. zoomster,

    [Slingshots.

    The whole David and Goliath thing is right up the Greens alley…]

    Or pea-shooters.

    Peas are green after all.

  10. What do you do when you are on $10m?

    [SYDNEY Swans $10m recruit Lance “Buddy” Franklin has been caught in a new bingle.

    The club’s star recruit was interviewed by police after a car crash in Sydney’s eastern suburbs.

    Franklin was understood to have been driving along New South Head Road, Rose Bay, near Cranbrook Road, when he was caught in an accident with three other vehicles, about 7.30pm.

    Photos of the crash quickly appeared on Twitter with Rose Bay resident Craig McDonald tweeting: “Buddy Franklin has just totalled three parked cars on New South Head road outside my place.”

    Pictures show the black Jeep Grand Cherokee smashed head-on into the vehicles and the air-bags deflated.

    Police attended the scene and were seen taking a statement from Franklin about the crash.

    He left the scene with friends and his car was towed away.

    It’s not the first time Franklin has experienced car trouble since relocating to Sydney.

    Earlier this year teammate Dan Hannesbery crashed Franklin’s Mercedes.

    “Franklin had lent the car to teammate Dan Hannebery. Franklin was not driving nor was he a passenger in the car,” the club said at the time.]

    http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/lance-buddy-franklin-involved-in-car-crash-on-new-south-head-road-rose-bay/story-fni0xqrc-1226893748443

  11. [frednk
    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 9:02 pm | Permalink

    Not sure what Boerwar and centre are on about…]

    What I am on about is that the Greens are two-faced when it comes to Defence Policy.

  12. peg

    [Australia’s security lies in preventing the worst impacts of climate change in our region and redirecting military expenditure to meet broader definitions of security.]

    Ah. So not spending on Defence, then.

  13. Real peashooters make use of old pens and scrap paper – recycling at its best.

    I can testify that we have an army of highly skilled secondary school students ready for deployment…

  14. Centre

    Only prob where’s the water coming from and all the grass will turn to mud.

    Geez its easy being green just find a fault and off you go.

  15. frednk #900

    Australia is currently building two 27,800-ton Canberra-class Landing Helicopter Docks (LHDs) under Joint Project 2048. The ships, HMAS Canberra (LHD-02) and HMAS Adelaide (LHD-01) are based on the Spanish Navy’s Juan Carlos I built by Spain’s Navantia. The design was the winner of a competition with France’s Direction des Constructions Navales (DCN), which offered a larger version of the Mistral class design.

    The HMAS Canberra is currently being completed at BAE Systems – Maritime in Melburne after having been initially laid down in Spain and transported by sea to Australia. She will enter service with the Royal Australian Navy in 2014 while her sister ship will join her two years later. The LHDs will replace the HMAS Tobruk and the Kanimbla-class ships in mainly conducting amphibious operations with a secondary HADR brief.

    The Canberra class vessels boast a length of 230.82 metres (757.3 ft), with a maximum beam of 32 metres (105 ft) and maximum draught of 7.08 metres (23.2 ft). Maximum speed is 20 knots, and the LHDs will sport four Rafael Typhoon 25 mm remote weapons systems, six 12.7 mm machine guns, an AN/SLQ-25 Nixie towed torpedo decoy, and a Nulka missile decoy.

    The LHDs will be able to carry 1,046 soldiers and their equipment. Two vehicle decks (one for light vehicles, the other for heavy vehicles and tanks) can accommodate up to 110 vehicles. Each ship has a well deck for landing craft, while the flight deck has landing spots for six NH90-class helicopters or four CH-47 Chinook-class helicopters to operate simultaneously. The ships are equipped with a 13° ski jump retained from the Juan Carlos I design, although Australia has no plans to operate fixed-wing aircraft from these ships. The standard air group will typically be a mix of MRH-90 transport helicopters and S-70B Seahawk anti-submarine helicopters. The hangar can accommodate up to 18 helicopters, but eight will be the standard complement.

  16. [Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 9:07 pm | PERMALINK
    You can hardly blame Buddy for Australia’s infrastructure deficit.]

    Buddy will be a winner from the free trade deals providing cheaper cars

  17. Here are some real Defence policy issues for the Greens:

    (1) What kind of fighters would you purchase?
    (2) How many fighters would you purchase?

    Ditto for surface combatants, submarines, tanks, artillery and missile systems.

  18. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane · 28s
    Hockey dumps the mining tax & carbon price, gives back tax breaks to the rich and FBT rorters, and says OMG we have to fix the budget.

  19. Peg @ 910

    Ahaa, so the Greens do have an extensive defence policy. A defence policy totally directed towards climate change LOL.

    Frednk

    The point we are making is that the Greens do not have a defence policy.

  20. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-23/australia-to-buy-58-more-joint-strike-fighters/5405236
    [But a specialist in US defence strategy has questioned whether Australia’s purchase is good value for money.]
    Includes other links including ABC Four Corners – ‘Reach for the Skies’, 18 February 2013: http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2013/02/18/3690317.htm

    [The question is how and why did Australia lock itself into a project that both experts and senior US politicians say is dangerously flawed? Four Corners asks three crucial questions. Why was the plane chosen without an open and competitive tender? Why did the then head of the RAAF give the plane and the project his stamp of approval when it was barely off the drawing board? And will the aircraft’s capabilities have to be downgraded before it gets into service?]

  21. [
    zoomster
    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

    peg

    Australia’s security lies in preventing the worst impacts of climate change in our region and redirecting military expenditure to meet broader definitions of security.

    Ah. So not spending on Defence, then.
    ]

    Seems a little more logical than throwing 12 billion dollars at planes that are yet to be designed.

    I think the LHD is an example of a good buy, an example of something that can be built and serve multiple purposes. While it isn’t being used as a target it can be used for disaster relief efforts.

    Most military ships go through life as a maintenance nightmare and then a marine reef, the LHD has been designed to be a little more useful. A good thing I beleive and something worth giving a little thought to.

  22. Surely we can design and build our own planes, now there is a challenges to the private sector and government to show that there might be a future for manufacturing after all.

  23. The best chance of Australia not wasting 12 bilion dollars on the planes yet to be designed is congress cancelling the the thing. With the US budget cutbacks there is hope.

  24. MALCOLM FRASER’S WARNING___________
    ______________________________
    Some time ago Fraser warned that our greatest danger was being invlved in a war ,which the neo-cons in Washington would like to see,…between the US and China

    We are already part of the way down this road with allowing the US to use bases in the NT
    Frsaer sees this is a folly..when we should be making for a closer relationship with China
    The idea that the Indons can ever mount a substantial force in the region…or would want to.. is nonsense
    The real danger of invasion will come in the future as the effects of global warming and ocean levels rising will be an armada of small boats from a drowning Bangladesh or Indonesia as the oceans rise…and then we may be swamped by such peaple ..beyond our power to steam the flow

    This is happening at this moment in the Mediterranean

    SBS last night showed several vessel with 1100 refugees from Syria landing in Sicily…over 30.000 have come into Italian waters since Xmas,,,many black africans also crossing from a chaotic Libya…now a failed state courtesy of NATO and the USA

  25. [Australia’s security lies in preventing the worst impacts of climate change in our region and redirecting military expenditure to meet broader definitions of security.]

    Dude, don’t bomb us, we haz wind farms bro!

  26. mexicanbeemer –

    We spend plenty on the environment

    That would be why the scientists working in conserving biodiversity now say that we can no longer fund preservation of a wide range of species, that we must now choose which species to save and which to wave goodbye to. That we have dozens of “zombie species” that are effectively extinct in the wild but haven’t gotten around to actually dying out just yet.

    If we devoted the resources necessary to preserving habitats and controlling feral pests we could stop these species extinctions. But the money isn’t there and it gets in the way of “open for business”. That pesky green tape…

  27. As you slowly move towards retiring at 70 yr old.

    And still dumb enough to vote Liberal.

    You can take comfort in the knowledge that Abbott and Hockey retired on around $300,000 and $275,000 respectively and are not subjected to an assets test.

    And they will not have to work until they are 70yr old.

  28. [
    Centre
    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    Peg @ 910

    Ahaa, so the Greens do have an extensive defence policy. A defence policy totally directed towards climate change LOL.

    Frednk

    The point we are making is that the Greens do not have a defence policy.
    ]
    With 12 billion being wasted on planes yet to be designed, it is questionable if Labor or the Liberals do either.

    Pissing 12 billion down the drain is hardly something to boast about.

  29. on the planes yet to be designed

    I’m no fan of the JSF but this is just a silly comment. F35s are flying now. They may not fly well (or in thunderstorms), but they exist and they do fly.

    So describing them as “yet to be designed” is just wrong.

  30. Jachol as a long time supporter of landcare which i recall was set up by the Keating government we can and should be ensuring the environment is looked after.

    Zoidy

    A country should have well equipped arm forces, we have the natural resources required but like most thing a lack of long term planning and clear focus is starting to catch up on dear Tone and co.

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