Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point. Only a small share of the gain comes at the expense of Labor, who have accordingly made a strong gain on two-party preferred and are in majority government territory on the seat projection. A further point of interest with respect to the Nielsen poll is that the two-party preferred response on respondent-allocated preferences, which is not published by Fairfax, is at 54.5-45.5 considerably stronger for Labor than the headline result from previous election preferences. This may reflect a swelling in Greens support from the ranks of disaffected Labor identifiers, and a consequent increase in the Greens preference flow to Labor in comparison with the 2013 election result – which may in turn suggest the headline two-party result from the poll flattered the Coalition a little.
The other aspect of the latest BludgerTrack result which may raise an eyebrow is the strength of the Labor swing in Queensland, which also blew out excessively in January before moderating considerably thereafter. The Queensland breakdown from this week’s Nielsen played its part, showing Labor ahead 53-47 for a swing of around 10%. However, in this case the Nielsen is not out on a limb, providing the model with one of five Queensland data points from the past four weeks which all show Labor in the lead, with two-party results ranging from 51.1% to 56.5% (keeping in mind that sample sizes are in some cases below 200). The scattered state results provided by Morgan are not included in the model, but its poll release last week reported that Labor held a lead in Queensland of 51-49.
Nielsen also provides new data points for leadership ratings, and in keeping with the general weakness of the poll for the Coalition, their addition to the model puts Bill Shorten’s net approval rating back in front of Tony Abbott’s, and returns the narrowing trajectory to the preferred prime minister trendlines.
Perjury has to be deliberate – people unintentionally give inaccurate evidence in court every day, it’s only when they do it knowing that it’s inaccurate that there’s an issue.
Putting out the trash?
@political_alert: Education Minister Christopher Pyne has released an Issues Paper on teacher education for consultation: http://t.co/vZpJnOKSWw #auspo”
Patrick
Did you go to the famous St Pat’s (where all the boyos went).
Look what I am getting at is that people when asked to choose a leader will usually choose someone they think is “cleverer than them’.
There is a perfectly rational reason for this. If a person chooses someone that is no more able than they are then the person feels a bit guilty because they KNOW they should be in the race and that maybe they need to actually THINK and worry about the issues. If they choose someone smarter or more OBVIOUSLY able then the voter can relax and think OK the smarty pants can manage this, I can go back to the footy or MKR.
This is WHY Born to rule types actually are voted in. Voters can relax.
It was NO accident that Whitlam, also a middle class born to rule type was the first ALP to break barrier. Rusdd and Hawke the same.
The utter, utter hypocrisy of the Libs and their cheerleaders in turning on the ICAC itself is truly disgusting. That these people are given any time or credibility in the media is evidence of a big problem.
More than that, though, it’s disturbing – their little crypto-fascist racket is threatened by a genuinely impartial body with real teeth operating outside their control. We will see where it goes, but an attack on the ICAC is effectively an attack on an independent judiciary, which without exaggeration is a true step towards undermining democracy in Australia and replacing it with cartel rule.
Yes, yes, and just wait for the journos to get going on how many times he’s met Nicky Dee, and how many gifts he’s accepted from him.
It’s going to be a turkey shoot.
BOF probably thought Nicky Dee could be trusted to keep schtum about the wine. But he didn’t reckon on the fact that, to influence peddlars, a personally penned note from the Premier, thanking you for ALL your help, is absolute gold.
You can flash it around, tell people the Big Man is your mate – “Hey buddy, here’s a personal thankyou note, and a happy snap of me and Bazza at Wests Leagues” – as well as use it for later reference.
It’s a variation on the Honey Trap: corrupt someone in a small way, then use it later on to garner bigger favours.
And if it all goes belly-up, then produce the evidence… pour encourager les autres that you have supplied with expensive baubles and trinkets (and who knows what else?) over the years.
We don’t know that Nicky Dee told Hartcher about the wine, or showed him the letter of “appreciation”. He might have told, say, Eddie Obeid, who at the time was pressing for a result on the AWH contract bid.
“Look Eddie, Barry’s grateful to me. I can work miracles. Be patient, maaaate.”
It could have been anyone. And it could have been anyone who ratted on Bazza to The Daily Telegraph.
That newspaper is aligned with the Singleton-Hadley axis. Hadley hardly ever shuts up about O’Farrell this and O’Farrell-that.
What’s also funny is the way the Liberals and their shills have suddenly discovered that ICAC can be used for the purposes of witch hunts. Who knew?
They didn’t seem to mind when a succession of federal Labor ministers were trundled out in front of the ICAC beak to be embarrassed about using Obeid’s ski lodge, or going for a putt-putt on Sydney Harbour aboard Eddie’s boat.
No, no, THAT was all perfectly fine. Gerry Henderson said on Insiders once (from memory) that this didn’t necessarily imply corruption (nice “imputation” that, from the man who just hates imputations… ones that he’s not making himself, that is), but that it was a “bad look”.
If ICAC proves anything it’s that when it comes to big money, there is no “Labor” or “Liberal”. There’s only “Money”.
Nicky Dee and the Obeid Boys went to St. Pats (my alma mater, in case anyone’s missed it). St. Pat’s was – and probably still is – regarded as a low rent Catholic School with high-rent tickets on itself.
When I was there it was directly run by the Christian Brothers on basically “Catholic” principles. It therefore produced dozens of lefties, from unpromising stock – the sons of real estate agents, GPs, tradies and moderately prosperous business people.
The sons of landed gentry, specialists (as opposed to GPs), dentists, property spivs, big business and wannabee big business went to Joeys and Riverview, with some spillage to Joe Hockey’s old school, St. Aloyisus.
Ever since, one of the main streams of Australian politics has been GPS Catholic boys in the Liberals versus Son Of Catholic Tradesmen from lower rent schools like St. Pat’s.
St. Pat’s today is higher rent and only lip service is paid to religion. They also have Rugby tours to Argentina. They have a basketball team. They go on study tours to Tuscany. They have an orchestra. I get the color, glossy magazine posted to me every few months. I’m on the mailing list.
In my day it was footy in winter, cricket in summer and a few kids played tennis. No study tours, no rugby tours, no orchestra.
Of course, the Brothers are no longer there. One of the retired Brothers recently told me that they made a corporate decision to return to their roots, working with the poor, not the rich.
St. Pat’s is (and has been for decades) all “lay” teachers. As far as the GPS boys are concerned this is nouveau riche, piled on top of the mountain of pretentious tickets St. Pat’s has on itself. Anyone can go there now, as long as they have the money, and preferably if their old man is an Old Boy.
Imagine being a GPS Catholic boy – like many on the front bench of the Liberal government in Canberra, and many of their supporters – and seeing the trailer trash of St. Pat’s bringing the whole, carefully crafted show down.
Not only is Di Girolimo ex-St. Pats, but so are many of his cronies, like the Obeids and others. Even Counsel Assisting ICAC, Watson, is ex-St. Pat’s. These peasants don’t know how to corrupt in the approved manner.
Now look what they’ve done. They’ve gotten rid of another high-rent Catholic boy, in the person of Barry O’Farrell. When will the rot stop?
Just as the bonds between ex-Jesuit educated boys remain lifelong, so do the bonds between St. Pat’s boys. They’re tribal, both lots. They stick together (Di Girolimo’s predecessor at Colin, Biggers & Paisley was also a St. Pat’s boy). The animosities, envies, jealousies and friendships go back thirty or even forty years in some cases. Nothing is forgotten or discarded, including thank you notes from the Premier.
So, OK, the Micks are fighting among themselves, so what must the Proddy Establishment think of all this? THEY are the natural bosses of the Libs, and the Catholics are ruining it for everyone.
Pissants like Greek Orthodox (shudder) Sinodinos are useful idiots, feared only because of the back-up they have behind them. They are hit men. Point them in one direction, flick the switch and they go off like the Energizer Bunny. When they go bad, you can drop them (usually while protesting that you are their greatest friend evah). John Brogden was also disposable. He went to St. Pat’s too. Meh.
So figure in Proddies versus Catholics as well.
Non-U Catholics from modest and (in the cases of the Obeids and Sinodinos) suspect “woggy” backgrounds have cruelled the ground for the Upper Crust GPS Jesuit boys who have, in turn, usurped the rightful Protestant Establishment in the Liberals.
And did I forget to mention they were from Sin Sydney as well? Well, QE-bloody-D!
It was all so predictable.
The bloody Micks and the Wogs ruin it every time. There will certainly be much harrumphing in the Melbourne Club this week. The barbarians have invaded Rome and the Liberal Party has gone to hell.
Well, that’s my theory, anyway.
Gerard Henderson on Lateline last night.
One of the funniest comedy shows the ABC has ever produced since that Chris Kenny dog sexing show.
[Look what I am getting at is that people when asked to choose a leader will usually choose someone they think is “cleverer than them’.]
I disagree.
Al Gore vs George W Bush – case closed.
In this country, I think Australians actually have a nasty anti-intellectual streak which is growing by the day. Sounding like a nerd was actually Rudd’s biggest weakness when it came to the public, IMHO.
[This is WHY Born to rule types actually are voted in. Voters can relax.]
Again, I disagree – I think this has more to do with a lingering hint of British class bias (or the more modern US variant, the ‘Camelot’ fantasy) than any respect for the ability or intelligence of the ‘born to rule types’. Plus human psychology is such that when some alpha jerk says “make me leader, dammit!” a certain percentage of people are inclined to obey.
Meanwhile, wonder who this motorist votes for ?
A P-PLATE driver who used her mobile phone behind the wheel 44 times before running down a cyclist near Koroit has been fined $4500 and lost her licence for nine months.
Kimberley Davis, 21, of Grant Street, Port Fairy, yesterday pleaded guilty in the Warrnambool Magistrates Court to dangerous driving.
She was originally charged with 47 offences covering each time she had used her phone.
The cyclist suffered a spinal fracture which required surgery and placement in a spinal cage at Melbourne’s Austin Hospital. He was originally told he could be left a paraplegic and spent three months recovering.
…..
Even more stunning was Davis’ answers when interviewed by police two days after the accident and asked about using her phone.
“I just don’t care because I’ve already been through a lot of bullshit and my car is like pretty expensive and now I have to fix it,” she told a police officer.
“I’m kind of pissed off that the cyclist has hit the side of my car. I don’t agree that people texting and driving could hit a cyclist. I wasn’t on my phone when I hit the cyclist.”
http://www.standard.net.au/story/2219242/i-just-dont-care-texting-p-plate-driver-hits-cyclist/?utm_content=buffer3d11c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
[Did you go to the famous St Pat’s (where all the boyos went).]
No, I went to a very progressive private school, the kind of place picked by parents who care more about the best outcomes than having their kids wear wanky uniforms and putting stickers on their SUVs.
Despite this, the “cool kids” very definitely were the ones picked (often quite inappropriately) for school captain, class captain, etc etc.
Abbott presser
DTT
Pretty uniform across the few schools I attended that the most popular, generally outgoing personalities were chosen for captaincy not most intelligent or nerdy as you put it.
PvO is on twitter referring to the CCC and ICAC as a star chamber.
BOF’s resignation has generated a level of unhingement among Liberal shills that we haven’t seen since Gillard formed minority govt with the support of O and W.
[PvO is on twitter referring to the CCC and ICAC as a star chamber.]
People like this are genuinely dangerous for democracy.
Interesting…
[Military Commander General Moeldoko said on Wednesday that his Australian military counterpart, presumably chief of defence David Hurley, had told him that no more boats would be returned to Indonesia.
Of the orange lifeboats used to return three boatloads of asylum seekers since January, General Moeldoko said: “The Australian military commander has promised not to do it again.”
Advertisement
Asked later to confirm the quotes, the General’s spokesman went further.
“When the commanders talked to each other, the Australian military commander said that if another asylum seeker boat arrived in Australia, then Australia would deal with the problem internally,” the spokesman said.
General Moeldoko was quoted on news portal Detik.com saying the change in policy came out of “mutual respect for each country’s territory”.
If the returns started again after the promise from the Australian military leadership: “I will protest against them even more strongly,” General Moeldoko said, though he refused to elaborate what form that protest might take.
But Mr Morrison denied any such promises had been made between the two military commanders insisting: “There is no change to policy in relation to Operation Sovereign Borders.”]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbacks-abandoned-says-jakarta-20140416-zqvnl.html#ixzz2z6DbKQ7o
Confessions
[BOF’s resignation has generated a level of unhingement among Liberal shills that we haven’t seen since Gillard formed minority govt with the support of O and W.]
My guess is they are feeling a ‘little’ vulnerable.
Henderson behaviour was rude, appalling and shocking.
Rabbott told us that ICAC was ‘all’ about Labor.
shellbell@123
Nope!
Forgotten about the Croatian Ustacha?
[Henderson behaviour was rude, appalling and shocking.]
I think he had a few reds before going on air.
jkbbjk
Of course Rabbott and Co. are panicking because if there are further revelations about dirty deals and Liberals it will derail a core plank of their next election campaign.
From what I read of Baird he comes across as an Abbott clone without so many hapless edges. Too bad NSW.
[Kimberley Ramplin @Kimbo_Ramplin 35m
About the only thing I got right is that Baz was trying to up fuck Baird as late as last night: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/16/who-will-be-the-next-new-south-wales-premier … via @Cif_Australia]
It’s not fair. ICAC was only meant to go after Labor figures.
Patrick
A Wesley boy???
Look I agree with you about the British class stuff BUT I think in part the reason that people voted for British upper class look alikes was because they were “edookated” and that meant they were wise. We use education and profession as a proxy for knowing how clever someone actually is.
I do NOT agree about the anti intellectual threat. Sure we always take the mickey out of the upper classes but we trust the Doctor, Vet, accountant, architect etc and trained tradesmen. I think lawyers and journalists used to be trusted but not so much any more.
I also do not think you can translate USA to Australia, largely because of compulsory voting. In the USA people who do not care opt out of voting. In Australia they MUST make a choice and it therefore gives more weight to people who just have a gut feel etc.
Now even in the Bush/Gore battle the average voter may well have assumed that Daddy Bush would actually be running the show, while Gore while smart was also a bit single issue focused.
Julia Baird seems to have fallen further from the tree than Mike
“@latikambourke: Jillian Skinner stepping down as Deputy NSW Liberal leader. Supporting Gladys Berjikilian following discussion with her.”
Henderson was appalling last night.
Isn’t it interesting how Gerard talks about the ALP in a slow cynical “you know I am right” tone yet when the shite hits the fan for the Liberals he reaches melting point.
And to think our own (supposedly ALP} Warren Mundine is married to his daughter.
@sirgooddarren: Today’s @smh editorial. It’s not true Premier resigned over a “nothing”. Serious shortcomings exposed. http://t.co/iKk42Qu6hf via @smh
That’s quite a jump in bludgertrack in a week.
I think its a bit too overreactive.
Psephos @2
[Younger voters are now so hostile to Abbott’s regime that they are increasingly impatient with Labor for not adopting the kind of inflammatory anti-Abbott language that is all over social media – the place most of these people now get their news. They want a more radical opposition, and that’s what the Greens in general and Ludlam in particular are offering.]
This conflates two overlapping but distinct questions, which IMO, partly compete with each other. It’s my impression that the bulk of the vituperation against Abbott comes not from us Greens but from disaffected ALP supporters, who may or may not want a more left-of-centre ALP. Those grotesque David Rowe caricatures that BK posts, and similar exercises in photoshop imagery are especially popular with them. Often, I find myself chiding such folk for going OTT.
It’s true that those sympathetic to us want a more radical opposition to Abbott than the ALP is offering, but the language this is expressed in is immaterial. It’s my impression that the vituperation aimed at Abbott one sees from ALP faithful reflects the fact that they want to underline their distance from Abbott while remaining faithful to the ALP’s current low target strategy. The loud declamations and high dudgeon are an exercise in deception, if not of others, then certainly themselves, in some cases reflecting their personal frustration. If the ALP did adopt an unambiguously left-of-centre set of policies, the high dudgeon would substantially dissipate because they could contrast ALP policy/practice instead.
And yes I know it’s not hard to find banners from the ostensible far left also hurling scatological vituperation in Abbott’s direction, but these folk are very small in number, not us and unlikely to get anyone from us at this stage. They are unashamedly pitching at angry youth, but while these sentiments make good copy, again, most of the angry youth would far sooner have us in parliament, than anyone else. When you’re angry and young, having a chance to swear in public is a lot of fun, but you don’t expect it of your leaders.
The much bigger political threat to us would be if the ALP began taking up key elements of our policy — abandoning mandatory detention and expressly repudiating it, adopting a more robust and ubiquitous policy of building renewables and pricing carbon equivalent emissions, removing regressive income transfers from the tax and social security system, funding universities properly, backing gay marriage and drug liberalisation and so forth.
That would appeal to whole swathes of our membership and would make our pitch far harder. Personally, I’d welcome this, even though it would very probably hurt us a lot, because the whole conversation in public would be different and better. Indeed, if this is where the ALP went and as part of that it cleaned up its act organisationally, severing its financial ties with big business, even I would have to consider whether joining wouldn’t be worthwhile.
[139
victoria
Not sure if already posted
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/bigtime-player-lived-large-until-it-all-came-undone-20140416-36sed.html%5D
The age of entitlement is certainly over for Nick D.
[145
confessions
Today’s Mumble is on BOF’s downfall.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/barry_gone/%5D
I think this blog should be renamed Fumble. It’s barely coherent. I can’t imagine why News actually pays for this stuff.
[I do NOT agree about the anti intellectual threat. Sure we always take the mickey out of the upper classes but we trust the Doctor, Vet, accountant, architect etc and trained tradesmen. I think lawyers and journalists used to be trusted but not so much any more. ]
We seem to live in different universes. My observations of my fellow Australians attitudes is along these lines:
1. Doctors are apparently fools who know about as much as chiropractors, homeopaths and chemists, and who are all beholden to big pharma and want to vaccinate your child to give it autism.
2. Vets are rip off merchants who will sucker you into getting expensive but unneccessary treatments for Fido and Socks.
3. Accountants are universally shonky and mostly their job is helping people rort the tax system.
4. Architects don’t really do anything useful that I’m aware of
5. Tradies are also rip off merchants and I can do 90% of what they do myself
6. Lawyers obviously know nothing and simply lie to advance their clients’ interests. When they become judges they automatically forget what it is like to be a human being and start making random decisions which mostly favour serial killers and rapists.
Seriously, I defy you to speak to random Australians about any of these professions and not get these types of tall poppy responses.
And of course the worst of the lot are scientists – their “opinions” are no more worthy than my “opinions” about scientific matters. This is a view which is actively cultivated by our current government as a way of getting around inconvenient factual information.
[I can’t imagine why News actually pays for this stuff.]
I reckon you answered yourself in your previous 2 sentences. News Limited/Corpse doesn’t specialise in coherent intelligent ethical etc analysis. They like fumbling.
Surely there should be a word for the brain-rot that sets in when people accept Rupe’s money.
I like to find out what’s happening at Newscorpse at the Loon Pond. Endlessly funny
Actually, those who can’t bear listening to Gerard (I can’t) can get it filtered through the Loon Pond (which is the equivalent of wearing white gloves).
http://loonpond.blogspot.com.au/
[I think this blog should be renamed Fumble. It’s barely coherent. I can’t imagine why News actually pays for this stuff.
]
I couldn’t disagree more – I don’t always agree with mumble but he is one of the best writers around. Every couple of years I advocate a mumble + bludger collaboration I still live in hope.
The sudden rise in the Green polling is unsurprising – the WA result can best be read as ‘a curse on both your houses’ and the take out from ICAC is that neither of the major parties are free from corruption.
(I’d possit that, were the Greens a major party, corruption would necessarily follow — and that, arguably, their response to issues such as the unexpected million dollar donation they received a couple of elections ago demonstrates this).
The average voter booted out Labor because it was seen as dysfunctional and corrupt. They now find the Liberals aren’t any different.
Heard on the car radio that kennett has been out shooting his mouth off and that “ICAC used entrapment on BOF”
Haven’t seen a link for it as yet.
I luuve the sound of squealing tories.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
OK, important question for you.
Who is better?
Dorothy Parker or Andrew Elder?
Yeah I know silly question – the answer is ‘both’?
briefly:
He’s usually pretty spot on. The only thing I’ve been able to really disagree with him over was his continued insistence that Rudd was the best campaigner Labor had. He changed his tune on that not long after the election campaign began last year.
I agree the NSW premier didn’t resign over nothing. He resigned to misleading ICAC either intentionally or unintentionally. However he did mislead ICAC therefore his position became impossible.
I also think it’s fair enough to question whether ICAC is about asking someone about a gift when ICAC had already established that person was not subject to investigation or expected of any corrupt conduct. What was the point of asking about the gift and what did it add to ICAC’s investigation into corruption?
I do think that if you want a body like ICAC to exist with the powers they have, and personally I support that, then it is critical ICAC does what it was set up to do and not pursue issues outside its terms of reference. In particular ICAC needs to avoid being see to get itself involved in the political game.
Adam A
[Henderson behaviour was rude, appalling and shocking.]
I disagree. Henderson’s behaviour was rude, appalling and unsurprising.
Patrick
Readers Digest 2013 Most trusted professions
1 Firefighters
2. Paramedics
3. Rescue volunteers
4. Nurses
5. Pilots
6. Doctors
7. Pharmacists
8. Veterinarians
9. Air traffic controllers
10. Farmers
11. Scientists
12. Armed Forces personnel
13. Police
14. Dentists
15. Teachers
16. Childcare workers
17. Flight attendants
18. Bus/Train/Tram drivers
19. Locksmiths
20. Hairdressers
21. Postal workers
22. Waiters
23. Computer technicians
24. Security guards
25. Cleaners
26. Builders
27. Alternative health practitioners
28. Plumbers
29. Mechanics
30. Accountants
31. Shop assistants
32. Truck drivers
33. Charity collectors
34. Professional sportspeople
35. Bankers
36. Financial planners
37. Airport baggage handlers
38. Clergy (all religions)
39. Lawyers
40. Tow-truck drivers
41. CEOs
42. Taxi drivers
43. Journalists
44. Talkback radio hosts
45. Real estate agents
46. Sex workers
47. Call centre staff
48. Insurance salespeople
49. Politicians
50. Door-to-door salespeople
So it is changing. Finacial people take a pasting.
Now back in 1965 or so it was very different.
When the annual survey came bottom of the pile were sanitary collectors (dunny men) and MILITARY. The headline in the telegraph was “Dan, Dan the Military Man”
The military top brass were “not amused”
[181….Fran Barlow]
Your points are well-made. Shifts in voter affiliation among the parties are almost never driven by polemics alone. These shifts are determined by voters’ sense of connection with the parties’ policies, candidates and expressed values and by their lived experiences.
Thinking of social media, I have to admit I’m not familiar with the language that P is referring to, but, for the little it’s worth, I would guess that the tenor (intensity or vehemence) of expressions carried socially is seldom likely in itself to change political affiliation.
Communication is important. But it is not all-important. Our lived experiences condition how we respond to messages of all kinds, including political messages.
guytaur
“”“@adambspencer: if even 10% of 9-5ers worked 7-3 and 10% 11-7pm we wouldn’t need to spend billions more on roads so everyone can get to work at 8.45am!”””
Stupid Liberals!, the NBN could have taken THOUSANDS off the roads, THEY have NO vision!.
[192….confessions]
I guess I am a refugee from News Corp in nearly every sense. I seldom ever read anything they publish.
[
I couldn’t disagree more – I don’t always agree with mumble but he is one of the best writers around. Every couple of years I advocate a mumble + bludger collaboration I still live in hope.
]
I agree, always worth a read in my opinion. But each to their own I guess.
Mike Baird – Member for Manly, evangelical christian, anti abortion, anti gay marriage, anti euthanasia, anti stem cell research. I’m just waiting for Abbott to come out and tell us what an honourable man he is. Everyone is going on about icac, and what happened really is the nsw right of the liberal party has just knocked off a moderate leader. I’ve heard it said before the Libs do leadership coup’s better than the other side.