Essential Research: 50-50

Following on from the weekend’s radical Nielsen result, Essential Research records only slight changes in voting intention this week. Also featured: support for campaign advertising caps, the minimum wage and fair trade agreements, and a wary view of Palmer United’s Senate balance of power.

This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average has the parties at level pegging after two weeks with Labor leading 51-49, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 37% and the Coalition steady at 42%. The surge to the Greens in Nielsen is not replicated, their vote up only one point to 10%, with Palmer United likewise up a point to 4%. Other findings from the poll:

• A semi-regular question on leader attributes records a slight decline in sentiment towards Bill Shorten since the question was last asked in October, with “intelligent” and “understands the problems facing Australia” down six points and “arrogant”, “superficial”, “erratic” and “narrow-minded” respectively up five, six, seven and eight. Tony Abbott’s ratings are somewhat more negative, with “arrogant” up four points and “out of touch with ordinary people” up five.

• Seventy-seven per cent oppose abolition of the minimum wage, with only 15% supportive.

• Eighty-four per cent of respondents were in favour of spending caps on campaign advertising by political parties, and 78% for caps on advertising by third parties. Opinion here was consistent by party support.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of the free-trade agreement with Japan, versus 13% who disapprove, while the respective numbers for free-trade agreements generally are 49% and 11%. Coalition supporters were most in favour on both counts, while Greens supporters were most opposed.

• Thirty-two per cent think Palmer United’s balance of power position in the Senate bad for democracy versus 27% for good and 19% for no difference. Major party supporters recorded similar responses, but 62% of those in the “others” category were approving.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

Comments Page 10 of 17
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  1. Why does anyone deserve the right to not work? I can think of only 2 (1)You are not asking others to pay your way (2)You are incapable.

    Just because you paid your taxes doesn’t mean you are owed anything. The government spent all your taxes and then some. In fact rather than owed, you owe. So I don’t think we let anyone leave until the money they owe is returned.

  2. https://theconversation.com/australias-dirty-secret-whos-breathing-toxic-air-23237
    [Australians living in poorer communities, with lower employment and education levels, as well as communities with a high proportion of Indigenous people, are significantly more likely to be exposed to high levels of toxic air pollution.

    These are the key findings from the first Australian study to assess the relationship between industrial air pollution and the communities most exposed to it, which has just been published in the international journal Environmental Research Letters….

    …Our new national assessment is not enough to conclusively state that industries have deliberately chosen to locate in specific areas with less well-off communities. In fact, sometimes people with less money, who are looking for work, may be attracted to living near cheaper land – including less desirable places, such as near mines or industrial sites.]

  3. If asked which is more likely,
    (1)A reputable company paid someone triple time on Good Friday to generate invoices when they could have paid them time and a half on the Saturday or single time on Tuesday.
    or
    (2)A corrupt business fabricated an invoice but didn’t check the calendar and used Good Friday by mistake.

    I know which I think is more likely.

  4. https://theconversation.com/whither-the-unions-what-shorten-can-learn-from-uk-labour-25385
    [In a post-industrial and neoliberal era, questions of identity are posing acute problems for political parties with ties to organised labour all over the world. Reflecting on the Australian Labor Party’s dismal showing in the Western Australian Senate by-election, former WA premier Geoff Gallop presciently asked of the ALP:

    Is it a union-based party or is it a social democratic party?

    This existential crisis about Labor and trade unions has been ongoing, and not just in Australia. But as federal Labor leader Bill Shorten seeks to reinvent his party, he will do well to examine the reforms his UK counterpart Ed Miliband has introduced to the Labour Party in Britain.]

  5. Where the Royals and the monarchists went completely wrong is not arranging for the Queen to adopt Bullock as heir to the throne.

  6. ifonly

    Try living on the various welfare incomes. The truth is you survive not live on them.

    The only right we are talking about is the right not to be homeless and starving.

    The lines you are using are ones used by the GOP in the US to stop any real welfare and instead have the crime as the desperate fight to survive.

  7. @political_alert: Western Australian Labor Senator Louise Pratt will hold a media conference regarding the WA Senate Election at 10am (WST) #wavotes #auspol

  8. Just because you paid your taxes doesn’t mean you are owed anything

    Try telling that to a Liberal pollie as they are off to a footy match, or checking their investment property or riding a bike for charity and claiming travel allowance, or going to a mate’s wedding or doing a book signing

  9. “@political_alert: The Prime Minister is in Sydney this morning and will make an infrastructure announcement at 10.15am #auspol”

    Thats the one with Barry O Farrell so there will be some Grange questions

  10. G

    Gimme a break.

    If you want a desperate fight to survive try being less than ten years old while making your living through garbage picking in a Manila rubbish dump.

  11. bw

    Happens in the US too. Even here some homeless go through rubbish.

    The difference is what countries do to avoid it. The Philippines has massive problems on that front. However I think they are working to overcome them as best they can.

    My point is the GOP argue for no support in a country that can afford it.

  12. guytaur #459
    “Try living on the various welfare incomes”. That is an argument about what is provided not who should receive it.

    Who should receive it should be based on need, not age.
    If you are capable of earning then don’t ask for someone else to pay your way. This is true whether you are 18 or 81.

  13. ifonly

    You have heard of means tests and the like. Our system weeds out the rich from getting pensions.

    There is a valid argument about asset rich. However an argument about need not age is specious. The retirement age is forced on people by business not social security pension coming in at 65, 67 or 70.

    All that is going to happen with raising the pension age will be more on the DSP as they wait for the age pension due to not being able to work.

  14. “@SwannyQLD: Having increased budget deficits by $68 billion, Hockey now claims his budget has a revenue problem NOT a spending problem #allovertheshop”

  15. “@joeobrien24: PM @TonyAbbottMHR media conf on Infrrastructure announcement 1015 AEST on @abcnews24 .. no mention of NSW Prem O’Farrell in PM’s media rlse”

  16. A great mate of the Bush family gets the chop –

    [ Prince Bandar bin Sultan, Head Of Saudi Intelligence, Has Been Sacked

    The reign of Saudi’s infamous former ambassador to the US and current intelligence chief, Prince Bandar “Bush” bin Sultan – the man who we suggested was the puppetmaster behind the entire failed operation – had come to an end.

    Some two months ago, Shia Post reported that “News sources announced that the chief of the Saudi spying apparatus Bandar bin Sultan has been dismissed…

    Since creation of crisis in Syria by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, Bandar bin Sultan’s name has been heard time and again in tandem with the Syrian crisis.”

    …Moments ago, in a tersely worded statement from the Saudi Press Agency, it was indeed confirmed that, perhaps in response to his failed handling of the Syrian conflict, Prince Bandar has indeed been sacked.

    A royal order announced here today that Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz was relieved of his post as Chief of General Intelligence upon his request and that General Staff Yousif bin Ali Al-Idreesi was assigned to act as Chief of General Intelligence. The royal order will be carried out by the concerned authorities with immediate effect.]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-15/prince-bandar-bin-sultan-head-saudi-intelligence-has-been-sacked

  17. CC

    [It appears the younger demographic understands the significant risks to our system of governance if we change it.]

    There’s no evidence for that inference at all. I would be astonished if any significant tranche of 18-24s mentioned that, especially since there is no risk.

  18. [It appears the younger demographic understands the significant risks to our system of governance if we change it.]
    This is a joke right?

    Do you think the ‘younger demographic’ have any idea how our system works?

    The support for a bunch of inbred foreigners being our heads of state is profoundly depressing. I suspect it has more to do with Game of Thrones and New Idea than with any principled position.

  19. A WEIRD black ring has been spotted in the sky above a town in England.

    Captured on video by a 16-year-old girl last Friday and posted on YouTube, the black ring which appeared over Warwickshire in England left people questioning whether it was the weather (play on words intended) which meteorologists soon dismissed.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/technology/science/weird-black-ring-appears-over-english-town-leaving-experts-baffled/story-fnjwlbuh-1226885287034

  20. Patrick B:

    [The support for a bunch of inbred foreigners being our heads of state is profoundly depressing. I suspect it has more to do with Game of Thrones and New Idea than with any principled position.]

    I agree, and I think it reflects a lack of engagement with the Republic issue on the part of this ‘younger demographic’.

  21. Nothing much changes really – Walmart employers are paid a pittance when compared to Australia, yet when they advertise a 100 or so vacant jobs, thousands line up to apply –

    [ How US Taxpayers Subsidizes America’s Biggest Employer and Richest Family

    WASHINGTON — Walmart and the Waltons—America’s largest employer and richest family—received tax breaks and subsidies worth an estimated $7.8 billion in 2013, according to a report released today by Americans for Tax Fairness.

    Released for Tax Day, when millions of American taxpayers and small businesses pay their fair share to support critical public services and the economy, the report shows Walmart and the Waltons have their own set of rules to game the system and get taxpayers to pick up the tab.

    Walmart, which was number one on the Fortune 500 in 2013, had $16 billion in profits last year on revenues of $473 billion. The Walton family, which own more than 50 percent of Walmart shares, reaps billions in annual dividends from the company.

    The six Walmart heirs have a net worth of $148.8 billion—more wealth than 49 million American families combined.

    The report shows that $7.8 billion is enough to hire 105,000 new public school teachers if Walmart paid its fair share of taxes and didn’t call on taxpayers to subsidize its low wages.
    The report identifies the annual subsidies and tax breaks to Walmart and the Waltons, which include the following:

    · Walmart receives an estimated $6.2 billion annually in mostly federal taxpayer subsidies. Walmart pays its employees so little that many of them rely on food stamps, Medicaid and other taxpayer-funded programs.

    · Walmart avoids an estimated $1 billion in federal taxes each year. It uses tax breaks, including a strategy known as accelerated depreciation that allows it to write off capital investments considerably faster than the assets actually wear out.

    · The Waltons avoided an estimated $607 million in federal taxes on their Walmart dividends which are taxed at a much lower rate than income from salaries and wages. ]

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/04/walmart-on-tax-day-how-taxpayers-subsidizes-americas-biggest-employer-and-richest-family/

  22. Lol finnigans on twitter

    [BREAKING: Presser coming up in 10mins on @ABCNews24 between Abbott & Bazza to announce the 58 Grange has been found, yes, it was on #MH370]

  23. It’s purely symbolic Patrick. They are entertained as an instance of ‘heritage’ like Federation houses and Scottish castles.

    If they were seen as intervening in politics here, their popularity would plummet.

  24. [ victoria
    Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2014 at 9:33 am | Permalink

    Waiting for Abbott to tell us otherwise ]

    Vic – we will only see him if there is good news.

  25. [If they were seen as intervening in politics here, their popularity would plummet.]
    They intervene psychologically, by keeping us tethered to the idea that we are a colonial nation with a quasi-British identity.

  26. dave

    Nothing ever reported was positive as far as MH370 was concerned. Abbott has only raised false expectations at each and every turn. He is despicable

  27. kakuru@485

    Now a Game of Thrones / House of Windsor cross-over… I’d watch THAT!

    Just read up on the English ‘Royal’ history – start around Henry VIII ?

    The Windsors have only been around, name wise since WW1, with Edward VIII as the black sheep and Betty the star.

  28. [Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2014 at 9:00 am | PERMALINK
    G

    Gimme a break.

    If you want a desperate fight to survive try being less than ten years old while making your living through garbage picking in a Manila rubbish dump.]

    BW

    Just because there is worse suffering in Asian countries does not mean there is no suffering here. A wealthy country like Australia is expected to have higher standards of support for its citizens than a third world country like The Phillipines and we should not be measuring those standards by what is going on in Manila rubbish dumps.

  29. [guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2014 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    bw

    Happens in the US too. Even here some homeless go through rubbish.]

    No it does not.

    You used the term ‘desperate struggle to survive’. My view is that you just don’t get what that really means. ‘Survive’ means life or death. ‘Desperate’ means you might not make it through the day or week. ‘Struggle’ means you are on your own.

    Australian homeless kids have access to all sorts of assistance, including health, education and financial assistance, that five year old kids living off, and in, Manila rubbish dumps – with no access to education, health or housing support – can only dream about. I dare say we are looking at a life expectancy differential of twenty to thirty years.

    I am not arguing against proper state support for those who need it in Australia. I have always supported it, even though I have been fortunate enough to only ever having been in a position to pay taxes to support it.

    But I am arguing that if you don’t want to debase ‘a desperate struggle to survive’ then only apply it where it means what it says.

  30. bw

    It is a desperate struggle to survive for those that get no support in the US.

    The fact its a first world country that can afford to support its citizens makes i worse.

  31. Darn

    [BW

    Just because there is worse suffering in Asian countries does not mean there is no suffering here. A wealthy country like Australia is expected to have higher standards of support for its citizens than a third world country like The Phillipines and we should not be measuring those standards by what is going on in Manila rubbish dumps.]

    The words were not about suffering. They were about ‘a desperate struggle to survive’.

    As for a comparison between what is happening in the Philippines, why shouldn’t we compare like with like: the absurdly wealthy with the absurdly wealthy, the poor with the poor?

    Do you really believe that the happenstance of which nation particular sufferers happen to inhabit are an excuse or a rationale for anything and everything?

    Failure in the struggle results in death. And death is not a relative concept.

  32. g

    Show me some stats for death by starvation in the US and I might come around to your point of view that the 46 million people in the US who are on SNAP are involved in a desperate struggle to survive.

  33. bw

    I agree the Philippines has major problems. That does not reduce the argument about what is happening in the US.

    The GOP argue for policies that leave people with no support and thus no income. That leaves those unfortunates in a desperate struggle to survive.

    Does the Philippines have policies that deliberately put people into rubbish dumps scavagening to survive?

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