Essential Research: 50-50

Following on from the weekend’s radical Nielsen result, Essential Research records only slight changes in voting intention this week. Also featured: support for campaign advertising caps, the minimum wage and fair trade agreements, and a wary view of Palmer United’s Senate balance of power.

This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average has the parties at level pegging after two weeks with Labor leading 51-49, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 37% and the Coalition steady at 42%. The surge to the Greens in Nielsen is not replicated, their vote up only one point to 10%, with Palmer United likewise up a point to 4%. Other findings from the poll:

• A semi-regular question on leader attributes records a slight decline in sentiment towards Bill Shorten since the question was last asked in October, with “intelligent” and “understands the problems facing Australia” down six points and “arrogant”, “superficial”, “erratic” and “narrow-minded” respectively up five, six, seven and eight. Tony Abbott’s ratings are somewhat more negative, with “arrogant” up four points and “out of touch with ordinary people” up five.

• Seventy-seven per cent oppose abolition of the minimum wage, with only 15% supportive.

• Eighty-four per cent of respondents were in favour of spending caps on campaign advertising by political parties, and 78% for caps on advertising by third parties. Opinion here was consistent by party support.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of the free-trade agreement with Japan, versus 13% who disapprove, while the respective numbers for free-trade agreements generally are 49% and 11%. Coalition supporters were most in favour on both counts, while Greens supporters were most opposed.

• Thirty-two per cent think Palmer United’s balance of power position in the Senate bad for democracy versus 27% for good and 19% for no difference. Major party supporters recorded similar responses, but 62% of those in the “others” category were approving.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. What is the situation with BOF?

    The Premier is about to hold a press conference at Parliament House, he’s supposed to be with the PM at Liverpool #nswpol

    The premier to make a short statement no questions we are told . #nswpol

    NSW Prem’s media conf was called at very short notice – we’re unable to get it out live – will bring it to you asap. @ABCNews24

  2. “@Kate_McClymont: Breaking : card from Premier Barry O’Farrell thanking Mr Di Girolamo for the marvellous gift of the $3000 recovered by #icac”

  3. [Have you seen the latest episode of GOT?]

    I have Victoria. And might I take the opportunity to blast the SMH for having a GoT spoiler in plain sight on its home page yesterday, just before I watched the episode. FFS.

    It was a great episode, for many reasons – despite the spoiler.

  5. Oh dear

    [
    @Kate_McClymont: Breaking : card from Premier Barry O’Farrell thanking Mr Di Girolamo for the marvellous gift of the $3000 recovered by #icac”
    ]

    [
    Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont 24s
    This could spell the end of the O’Farrell’s premiership as he denied under oath receiving the wine, but now we have a thank you card #icac
    ]

    https://twitter.com/Kate_McClymont

  6. Kakuru

    I made sure i avoided the spoiler and watched it last night. As i started to watch, i guessed one of the main players was done for. I said to my OH that nephew or uncle was going to cop it. We were both hoping it was nephew. 😀

  11. “@KarenMMiddleton: RT @Kate_McClymont: Premier Barry O’Farrell has resigned. Could also face perjury charges for lying to #icac. He is going to be recalled”

  12. Patrick

    [They intervene psychologically, by keeping us tethered to the idea that we are a colonial nation with a quasi-British identity.]

    Wow … So they have mind control? They’re like that guy from the X-Men. We need to get special helmets like Magneto to resist them.

    You do say some funny things. 😉

    They just aren’t a big deal. Inclusive government is a big deal. Ensuring your roof doesn’t leak is a big deal personally. Having a bakelite phone in your house is at worst a useless piece of junk. So too is the monarchy.

  14. Victoria

    In order to avoid spoilers you pretty much have to live like a hermit for a day, avoiding friends and the internet.

    [I made sure i avoided the spoiler and watched it last night. As i started to watch, i guessed one of the main players was done for]

    Yes, there was a great deal of foreshadowing. It’s now a medieval whodunnit.

  21. SMC:

    [BOF gone, another NSW premier done by ICAC.]

    Jeez, does any Premier or PM last a single term these days??!!

    ICAC was supposed to be a witchhunt of Labor luminaries. What the frig happened?

  23. Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust 3s
    O’Farrell: i still can’t recall receiving the wine… But I accept the consequences (@ash_gillon)

  24. So, Ray Hadley gets an early Easter egg.

    The ICAC inquiry designed to gotcha Labor politicians has caught one Liberal Federal minister, and one Liberal Premier.

    And no resignations of Labor politicians.

    It was easily predictable, the way these things always go.

    I don’t know why they persist with this slagging-off process, because it always ends the same way.

    I don’t know why, but I’m glad they do.

  28. [ABC News ‏@abcnews 57s
    Barry O’Farrell: “In no way did I seek to mislead wilfully or otherwise the ICAC … this has been a significant memory fail on my part”.]

    He didn’t declare the wine on the pecuniary interests register. It’s more than just a memory fail.

  35. confessions:

    [He didn’t declare the wine on the pecuniary interests register. It’s more than just a memory fail.]

    Yep, that’s it in a nutshell. It was a rock and a hard place.

  37. bw

    You try living without an income. Location irrelevant. You still struggle to survive.

    Starvation rates of the US and Philippines irrelevant to that basic fact for an individual.

  41. SMC:

    [Yes, I’m not across the details enough, but why the hell didn’t he just say he couldn’t recall receiving the bottle of wine, but he may have?]

    Good question. My guess is that he’s entangled with the illustrious Nick Di G more than he’s let on.

  42. [Is it because he didn’t declare the bottle of wine? Therefore he had to claim he had never received it?]

    He could’ve just said he had no memory of the wine, but it’s possible he did in fact receive it.

    But not declaring it upon receiving it makes me think there’s something bigger here. Having spent years watching NSW Labor mire itself in dodgy behaviour, you’d think the Liberal leader of all people would want to be freaky squeaky clean.

  45. kakuru@521

    SMC:

    BOF gone, another NSW premier done by ICAC.


    Jeez, does any Premier or PM last a single term these days??!!

    ICAC was supposed to be a witchhunt of Labor luminaries. What the frig happened?

    Tiny Abbotts RC into union corruption is supposed to be a witch hunt into Labor, or so they hope.
    Turns out, these type of stunts have a habit of spectacularly backfiring.

  48. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 2m

    Sorry – I come from Qld. I don’t understand how that whole “taking responsibility in politics” thing works. It’s weirdly alluring

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