Essential Research: 50-50

Following on from the weekend’s radical Nielsen result, Essential Research records only slight changes in voting intention this week. Also featured: support for campaign advertising caps, the minimum wage and fair trade agreements, and a wary view of Palmer United’s Senate balance of power.

This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average has the parties at level pegging after two weeks with Labor leading 51-49, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 37% and the Coalition steady at 42%. The surge to the Greens in Nielsen is not replicated, their vote up only one point to 10%, with Palmer United likewise up a point to 4%. Other findings from the poll:

• A semi-regular question on leader attributes records a slight decline in sentiment towards Bill Shorten since the question was last asked in October, with “intelligent” and “understands the problems facing Australia” down six points and “arrogant”, “superficial”, “erratic” and “narrow-minded” respectively up five, six, seven and eight. Tony Abbott’s ratings are somewhat more negative, with “arrogant” up four points and “out of touch with ordinary people” up five.

• Seventy-seven per cent oppose abolition of the minimum wage, with only 15% supportive.

• Eighty-four per cent of respondents were in favour of spending caps on campaign advertising by political parties, and 78% for caps on advertising by third parties. Opinion here was consistent by party support.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of the free-trade agreement with Japan, versus 13% who disapprove, while the respective numbers for free-trade agreements generally are 49% and 11%. Coalition supporters were most in favour on both counts, while Greens supporters were most opposed.

• Thirty-two per cent think Palmer United’s balance of power position in the Senate bad for democracy versus 27% for good and 19% for no difference. Major party supporters recorded similar responses, but 62% of those in the “others” category were approving.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. “@CliveFPalmer: I see the #ICAC inquiry has claimed the scalp of @barryofarrell – will @theqldpremier be next? #auspol #polqld #nswpol @PalmerUtdParty”

  2. [546
    Lynchpin
    Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2014 at 10:30 am | PERMALINK
    Well well well…rummel, Mod Lib, CC – suffer in yer jocks

    Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahah]

    What for? If the Evidence points to LIbs is NSW needing a clean out, then clean them out. I’m happy NSW has ICAC, unlike other governments.

  3. Watching from afar, it seems BOF has been evasive about his relationship with Giralmo from day one.
    First he barely knew the guy, then the pictures at the functions emerged, then the meetings, then the bottle of wine …
    Now BOF is gone, caught in his own web of deceit.

  4. While the conservatives – who loathe change of any sort – support the status quo regarding the republic, while the old Queen – much loved and much admired is still alive – and until the next real scandal hits the House of Windsor and/or we get King Charles, the republic issue is not seen as that important by most here. Especially the young it seems.

    Aside from this, the PR for the House of Windsor does an wonderful job – the same House which managed to get rid of its German name and ensure the last Czar of Russia did not find exile in the UK – speaks volumes for its agility in changing times.

    The death of the Princess Dianna shows the hold of the monarchy goes through its up and downs and you have to give credit to the Windsors being able to shift with the media times.

    Eventually, like the anachronism of Appeals to the Privy Council, the arrangement with the English monarchy will go in Oz.

    The laugh is that the Scots could be on the brink of pulling out of the “United Kingdom”, the Irish Republic (funny how that has managed without the monarchy all these years) is getting on good terms with what is left of the United Kingdom while the Welsh are irrelevant.

    The second laugh is that a defence of the monarchy used by some is to point out what wonderful people they are (talk about “tours of service” and all that guff) but when a future king has an affair (and some future kings had many – both of the Edwards), and one had Nazi sympathies, these self-same monarchist then blithely move to the position that it is the “process” of the monarchy and not the personality which counts for most.

    The true feeling of thinking Aussies was expressed just recently when Abbott felt that the OA was just not enough to make someone feel more important than they really are.

    Bit like “Queen’s Counsellor”. Not much good having a gong unless others know it and are expected the bow and scrape.

    The conservatives love this kind of stuff but the wrap their case up in “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and “Republicanism is an attack on our constitution”.

    It seems to me the conservatives are never forced to really argue out why we should have a foreign person, by the sheer good fortune of their birth, become our head of state, does not live here, and is said to reign but not rule. The fact that this person is also head of the Church of England which has 70 million members world-wide, and the CofE in England is dying, seems not to matter to these trogs.

    Oliver Cromwell, despite all his faults, got it right in the UK, but the English managed to shift real power to parliament in the meantime.

    Despite all the history, the Duke of Edinburgh wanted to sit in the Cabinet room – an unelected and useless person – sticking his royal nose where it did not belong.

    You know the idea, “Born to Rule”…just like which political party we know and love…..?

  5. Note to self. If called before star chamber stick to simple “I don’t recall” Never embellish with “I’d remember a bottle of grange” to try to seem believable.

  6. Re Barry O’ Farkkell’s resignation: my Schadenfreude meter has hit 100% for the first time since PM Howard lost his own electorate because he dudded the deal he’d made with Peter Costello to step down gracefully long before 2007.

  7. [guytaur

    bw

    You try living without an income. Location irrelevant. You still struggle to survive.

    Starvation rates of the US and Philippines irrelevant to that basic fact for an individual.]

    My point was that you were debasing the language of ‘desperate struggle to survive’.

    Show me some stats for starvation in the US and I might come around to your point of view about people being engaged in a desperate struggle to survive.

    In 2008 around 9 million kids worldwide died before their fifth birthday. Around one third of these were due to starvation and starvation-related diseases.

    That is what I call ‘a desperate struggle to survive’.

  8. rossmcg:

    Lies usually escalate and get out of control the more you try to contain the damage.

    BOF saying that he’d remember getting a bottle of Grange being a classic case in point. Why over-reach like that?

  9. “@SamCD01: PM Tony Abbott media conference on second Sydney airport. Prediction: The media will ask no questions about the airport. #auspol”

  10. I am with you Atticus.

    And fair enough rummel – very gracious of you. It’s just that as a Labor supporter, it’s been a long time between drinks. I won’t rub it in too much.

  11. My comments about the monarchy dim in response to the news from NSW.

    So, while looking for Labor scalps the NSW Head Honcho has fallen on his sword.

    Just wait now for the ‘justifications/excuses/beat ups’ to come from the conservatives.

    And I want to know, with Troy Buswell in the West, the LNP in the NT on the brink, how is the Liberal “brand” travelling??

    Newman next??

  12. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2014 at 10:41 am | Permalink

    BOF no doubt still get his life time perks and pensions.]

    Not necessarily. He faces potential criminal charges.

  13. “@justinbarbour: The pressure is showing – the Prime Minister is attacking a journalist, demanding she withdraw and apologise. Truly bizarre. #auspol”

  14. guytaur@500

    bw

    Does the Philippines have policies that deliberately put people into rubbish dumps scavagening to survive?

    They have had for over 400 years.

    It all flows from (and then spreads) by the restricted concentration of land owner who possess the vast majority of productive land.

    First the Spanish elite seized it, then the filipinos with Spanish blood retained it.

    Marcos was an exception who was an outright crook who spread his own version of society destroying cancer.

    If you look at most recent Presidents of the Philippines they are dominated by those same few so called ‘elite’ families who ‘own’ so much filipino land. Some examples –

    – Diosdado Macapagal, Corazon Aquino, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, Benigno Aquino III.

    The best post WW2 President IMO was “Steady Eddie” Fidel V. Ramos – US West Point educated who genuinely tried to tackle the issues.

    Oh – the Phillipine Government are nowhere near implementing policies to improve the situation. One of the most effective means would be to very very activity encourage birth control – and that won’t happen because the power of the catholic church and the government won’t tackle the church or the issue effectively.

    I doubt if they will ever “implement policies to improve the situation” even if they are able to find and retain, rich oil fields etc in their offshore economic zones, ie after arguing and possible winning that argument with the likes of China etc.

    Add to it all the endemic corruption which got a huge boost under Marcos and has grown exponentially – the average citizen has next to no chance – unless they emigrate or go offshore to work and earn a real wage etc. Las Vegas, Nevada from example would not operate without the huge numbers of Filipino workers found in many many occupations there. Also the mid east etc.

    Offshore workers remittances home are a huge component within the Philippine economy.

    The poor have no chance, but might, just might get a pittance now and then from charity. And Labor rights etc are next to nothing.

  15. [And fair enough rummel – very gracious of you. It’s just that as a Labor supporter, it’s been a long time between drinks. I won’t rub it in too much.]

    Lucky I’m not a supporter of any party! I will vote left, right and middle depending on what’s on offer. The problem is who the hell do you vote for in NSW now?

  16. [589
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2014 at 10:46 am | PERMALINK
    rummel

    No Green caught up in NSW yet. So your quandary is only on 2nd preference]

    A nice option until you realise that the NSW Greens are a special type of fruit loop beyond the normal green tinge of Tasmania.

  17. Tiny Abbott, how in the fark can you inadvertently “Mislead” (Lie)?

    What sort of morons do you take your constituents to be ?

  18. Lynchpin@539

    At least O’Farrell has done the honourable thing.

    I suspect he was duped.

    He went because there way no other pratical outcome in the circumstances.

    I only wish it had been abbott and morrison and hockey etc all caught out and gone.

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