GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.
Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.
UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.
UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.
g
Thank you. Let’s hope that the brinksters know what they are about.
Rex
[No, just need smart, common sense decision making.]
And that adds up to reform of the system.
what’s the bet climate science gets the biggest cut, but anything to do with mining is untouched?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/csiro-budget-cut-would-be-travesty-alp/story-fn3dxiwe-1226883518852
also, I’m beginning to wonder if PUP will become the equivalent of the Joh for PM campaign that took Howard out in 1987. it’ll depend on Palmer holding together (& not succumbing to the heart attack/stoke that looks overdue) until the election.
LNP are in a bind – perhaps they can ditch their ineffective egomaniac loon with more skill than the ALP did, but I suspect a spurned Abbott would make Rudd look like a well adjusted team player. Their only hope will be to get George Pell to swing a high powered position in Rome for abbott (just as Labor should have given rudd a UN position or high powered ambassadorship to get rid of him properly?). fun and games for the rest of us – I expect Hockey and Turnbull (& Morrison and Hunt) will be beginning to canvass support – the difference is that the Oz will not report on this daily as they did to Labor.
dave #300
Rather than attack me, critique what I say… challenge me with with a rebuttal !
The age pension
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/spotlight-the-age-pension-20140414-36muf.html
wat tha !@#$%^&*()_+
Poppycock!
I am just about to have some lunch and have lost my appetite.
Loons 17%?
Well that’s the end of Nielsen’s!
Give me Newspoll, Galaxy, Essential even Morgan any day 😐
MTBW #302
Not necessarily.
If poor decisions and outcomes persist they can enjoy opposition and ultimately oblivion.
The leaders of the party I’m sure don’t want oblivion, so enough with the nonsense, get back to common sense decision making.
Re Lizzie@258: Australia third out of 178 countries. The two countries ahead of us – Singapore and Hong Kong – don’t seem like societies we want to emulate. Maybe we are one of a few virgins in the bordello that is international trade and finance.
@AJEnglish: US: Russia orchestrating Ukraine violence http://t.co/UfTtHwBMNm
“@AndrewBGreene: Coming up on @ABCNews24 @GregJennett speaks to Social Services Minister @kevinandrewsmp re: looming budget cuts”
So does anyone have an update on Houston’s presser?
Rex Douglas@304
I’ll type this slowly rosemour so that you can hopefully absorb what I said.
dave@300
That in fact contains rebuttal. You have openly said your are anti Labor and everything you post here is framed around that.
No matter what Labor do or say, you will always find somethings else negative to say.
Prove me wrong!
Louise Pratt outpolling Bullock
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labors-louise-pratt-outpolling-colleague-joe-bullock-in-wa-senate-recount-20140414-zquie.html
fredex
Ism’t that about 2pm EST?
The Ukraine “crisis ” gave me one larf. Just heard a report of a “violent gunfight” during some incident. Can’t wait to see what a non-violent gunfight looks like.
Dave, grow up mate.
Centre
[Loons 17%?]
to quote the other great Bob
“Come gather ’round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You’ll be drenched to the bone
If your time to you
Is worth savin’
Then you better start swimmin’
Or you’ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin’.
Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won’t come again
And don’t speak too soon
For the wheel’s still in spin
And there’s no tellin’ who
That it’s namin’
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin’.
Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway
Don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside
And it is ragin’
It’ll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin’.
Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don’t criticize
What you can’t understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is
Rapidly agin’
PLEASE GET OUT OF THE NEW ONE
IF YOU CAN’T LEND A HAND
For the times they are a-changin’.
The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin’
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin'”.
Steve777@308
Both are basically city states as well, even though Hong Kong is back under chinese control, ie “One Country – Two systems” to quote Deng Xiaoping.
Louise Pratt outpolling Bullock is common sense decision making from WA’s. 😆
Today’s Mumble on the Nielsen poll:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/poll_doesnt_follow_script/
Kim Carr on 24 now
Rex Douglas@316
Pot meet kettle.
Try your own medicine in return – No matter what Labor do or say, you will always find somethings else negative to say.
Prove me wrong! Rebut your bellyaching.
[ Rex Douglas
Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 12:58 pm | Permalink
… challenge me with with a rebuttal ! ]
[
Opinion polls flip flop around, they have error margins. And why should they follow the media storylines? Only on the rarest of occasions are poll “movements” the result of what happened in the last week, fortnight or month.
And it is crazy to view political appeal as a running tally, dependent on what happened since the last time voting intentions were measured.
]
Mumble says what I was trying to say earlier, but much better of course.
Why anyone makes emphatic statements about how political parties are travelling based upon the findings of one opinion poll years out from an election is beyond me.
Wow Ian Chubb putting the boot into Abbott on 24.
Sir Mad
Agree. Trend tells us how badly Abbott is doing
Mark Scott says sorry –
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abc-boss-mark-scott-apologises-to-news-corp-columnist-chris-kenny-over-dog-sketch-20140414-zquix.html
Confessions #208
You lump the Racial Discrimination Act amendments ie the “right to be a bigot” issue together with the knights and dames issue.
If you truly believe these are of equivalent gravitas per se, or in the minds of voters, then you are beyond sensible discussion.
Your claim that the “uncritical (thinking) mass of voters” don’t elect governments is laughable. By that you are saying that the swingers, those who decide elections, are a small group of critically thinking, astute voters.
If only that was so.
If we have the right to be bigots as freedom of speech, then we have the right to see a sketch of Kenny and a dog. Although I object to the sketch on the grounds of animal cruelty because animal rape by men is a real problem that animal rescuers have deal with, in treating the abused dogs.
@PeterFosterALP: Australian carbon price scrapping seen as ‘backwards step’, says IPCC author http://t.co/sGAMcTsRms #auspol
If we take the Baby Boom years to be 1946 to 1964 then then youngest boomers turn 50 this year while the oldest turn 68. Many of the boomers were the first in their family to do the Higher School Certificate (or eqivalent in other states) let alone go to University. The younger boomers were able to take advantage of the abolition of tertiary fees while the older boomers could access Commonwealth Scholarships if they were acedemically gifted. And those boomers born before 1956 finished their schooling at a time of genuine full employment. I think that made a huge difference to the way people saw work and life generally.
I sometimes think there might be a difference between the old and the young boomers. The older ones had a less prosperous childhood. They didn’t go without but weren’t showered with consumables. The older ones had more goodies but things like getting a job were not as easy.
confessions – more phoney baloney from Peter Brent, putting the best spin possible of bad numbers for the coalition
The business about the over 65’s and the Coalition is they hold a premium on that voting segment. That mostly is due to the fact they grew up politically under Menzies and are staunch in their views.
The Baby Boomers by contrast grew up politically after that period and the Coalition don’t have the same premium on these voters than they did on the silent generation.
When the silent generation starts dying off and the baby boomers move into the over 65 cohort, their voting intention won’t be as staunch towards the Coalition as it once was. At the same time, the ALP (or the left if you prefer) have a much greater stranglehold on the younger age demographics such as Gen X and Gen Y.
It’s not so much about people getting more conservative as they get older but more to do with the degree of partisanship of baby boomers and the stranglehold the major parties have over these voting groups.
The Rudd/Gillard split masked this but it’s come right back as soon they were removed from office.
It’s not that the Coalition can’t win elections (they won the last one very convincingly), it’s more that it becomes much more difficult for them to win elections as the years progress.
Possum wrote extensively about this in 2009. It’s a pity he doesn’t have the time right now to update it
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/05/15/gen-blue/
guytaur@329
Backward move from a backward government, so what else is new ?
@btckr: .@vogrady2132 has confirmed what Abbott sd is in Hansard. Abbott’s beneath contempt. http://t.co/p6yfCpczrh http://t.co/FtQkwV2Lrs
kezza2@253
Hi Kezza2, been wondering how you got on.
Install the printer drivers on both computers.
The drivers should find the printer on the network and then away you go.
Yesiree Bob: Between now and the next election, Labor has to clean up its internal structure and, most importantly, come up with lots of policies to soak the rich. They can save billions just cutting back super concessions to less than 20,000 people (who wouldn’t vote labor anyway). That is money the libs will NEVER be able to offer to average voters because they believe in pampering the rich. Lots of low-hanging fruit for labor at the next election.
I’m a balmain basket-weaver, so will someone tell me whether I should vote Firth or Byrne?
The thing about the Silent Generation (over 70’s) is they’ll respond to policy questions almost entirely in favour of government intervention, spending, industry protection, the role of unions etc etc etc but still vote Coalition because that’s just what they do!
The ALP should probably stop trying to communicate with this group because it’s a dead end.
psyclaw:
Last week was one of the best weeks the govt has had in recent times. However much the RDA bigot stuff and knights and dames awards might be important to you, the reality is that they just don’t matter to most people. Last week the govt was pretty much free from all that irrelevant bullshit.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@336
Absolutely, but do they have the guts to do so ?
Centre, not liking the news from Nielsen, channels King Richard from Blackadder’s The Queen of Spain’s Beard.
You are always good for a laugh. I doubt you ill ever reach peak stupid.
K17
Fiona Byrne for sure. Of course, I would say that.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 1:33 pm | PERMALINK
[more phoney baloney from Peter Brent, putting the best spin possible of bad numbers for the coalition]
Agreed. Quite a lame contribution from mumbles
Just checking out the home page of the Herald Sun.
No need to read the article from Bolt to see what it is about.
[Carr’s legacy of selfishness
ANDREW BOT BOB Carr last week did Tony Abbott a huge favour. Labor’s former foreign minister finally made the Prime Minister seem a real leader. 41 comments]
“@ABCNews24: Coming up after 2pm AEST Chief Coordinator Angus Houston expected to give an update on the search for #MH370. #ABCNews24”
victoria
I hope that was a cut and paste. This would make an excellent “Oops”.
[Carr’s legacy of selfishness
ANDREW BOT ……]
poroti
I just checked it out. It does say Andrew Bot. Lol!
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cartoon/2014/apr/14/postcard-from-manus-island?CMP=twt_gu
What a vomit inducing little sycophant Bolt the Dolt is
Fran – No, I’m talking labor preselection: Verity Firth v Darcy Byrne.