GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition in the lead for the first time since late November, their lead of 51-49 comparing with Labor’s 52-48 lead in the poll of a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up three), 34% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down two). More to follow. UPDATE: Tony Abbott’s net approval improves slightly with approval steady on 40% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 31% and down one to 42%. There is also a less decisive result on preferred prime minister, with Abbott down two to 41% and Shorten down three to 33%. The Australian’s report here.
Morgan had its fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll out today, encompassing 2869 respondents over the past two weekends. It too has Labor losing ground on the previous poll, down from 54-46 ahead on respondent-allocated preferences to 51.5-48.5 (and on previous election preferences, 53.5-46.5 to 52-48), from primary votes of 34.5% for Labor (down four), 38.5% for the Coalition (up half a point), 12% for the Greens (up one point) and 5% for Palmer United (up half).
UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average records very little change, with Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for Palmer United, the only change there being a one point drop for Labor. Also featured are the monthly leaders ratings, which have Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 47%, Bill Shorten up two to 32% and down one to 38%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister up from 39-33 to 42-32. Other questions find 25% support for the privatisation of Medibank Private and 46% opposition, 61% expecting it would cause health insurance fees to increase against just 3% who think they would decrease, and 25% approving of the sale of government assets to fund new infrastructure against 58% disapproving. A semi-regular question on climate change finds 56% thinking it caused by human activity, up five on January, with 34% favouring the more skeptical response, down five.
Confessions, Shows On
If you do not like the Japan deal, you must have hated all the FTAs Labor signed with SE Asian countries. They are far more restrictive. At least one former Labor minister has had the honesty to praise these achievements. Those who criticise them only look partisan, and lose credibility. They must hate it when jobs are created for Aussie workers.
Tariffs are a small component of budget revenue. We need to increase taxes like the GST to fix that, as Henry and Parkinson have already said.
A court win for farmers over Gina Reinhardt’s Alpha coal project. Justice survives somewhere.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-08/alpha-coal-project/5375668
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Must be a lot of porn movies the bush wants to see!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-says-nbn-plan-must-change-or-300000-will-miss-out-20140408-zqscx.html
Greg Jericho examines the revenue situation.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2014/apr/08/increase-taxes-to-balance-the-budget-the-revenue-well-is-not-dry
Peter Martin digs into the free trade agreements.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/free-trading-cards-laid-on-the-table-but-beware-the-ace-up-the-sleeve-20140408-36b6v.html
Paul Keating in full flight.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/royal-botanic-gardens-masterplan-a-vision-not-so-splendid-20140408-zqsbk.html
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/paul-keating-takes-aim-at-art-gallery-of-nsw-director-over-botanic-gardens-plan-20140408-36baa.html
This woman has more front than is conceivable!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/kathy-jackson-wants-more-than-300000-from-hsu-20140408-36b9w.html
Now Pell will be pleased he’s shot through!
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/paedophile-priest-gerald-ridsdales-victims-to-launch-class-action-20140408-36bb7.html
Jonathon Holmes on the effects of the stiff sentencing laws in NSW.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/baseline-sentencing-plan-leaves-herald-sun-wondering-if-its-such-a-good-idea-after-all-20140408-zqs69.html
We will end up with no regulation or compliance monitoring whatever across the board the way Abbott is going. Welcome to the IPA/Tea Party world!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/carsafety-tester-ancap-braces-for-budget-writeoff-20140408-36bb1.html
Prof. Sarah Joseph on the government’s inconsistent and damaging approach to the concept of free speech.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/freedom-the-governments-inconsistent-approach-20140408-zqs32.html
Section 2 . . .
The ALP should listen to “Superman” John Faulkner this time.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/08/john-faulkner-urges-nsw-labor-to-end-preselection-system-of-trading-favours
The Guardian’s take on yesterday’s ICAC hearing.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/08/icac-inquiry-former-water-minister-says-awh-was-a-flea-on-a-dog
What a SURPRISE! Now the government should outlaw the whole stupid scam.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/a-major-australian-health-study-has-found-no-reliable-evidence-that-homeopathy-works-2014-4
http://tinyurl.com/mtudhpk
Not a good look, Clive!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/clive-palmer-takes-centre-stage-winning-candidate-takes-to-back-of-the-room-20140408-zqsbn.html
Michael Leunig in the honours list.
Alan Moir on Shorten’s WA difficulties.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
David Pope on the Japan FTA.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
A chilling contribution from Pat Campbell on MH370.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
David Rowe – the sweet FTA from Japan.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
And from the Land of the Free –
The odious Westboro Baptist Church got run out of this Oklahoma town.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/04/08/watch-westboro-baptists-lasted-one-minute-oklahoma-run-town/
The Repug candidate for California Governor seem a nicely balanced type!
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/04/08/gop-candidate-tim-donnelly-breitbart-ca-site-ok-undocumented-immigrants-rapists-child-molesters/
And here’s one from Minnesota that will boil your blood.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/04/08/minnesota-republican-seeks-office-daughter-wont-learn-evolution/
Jon Aravosis gives the clowns at FoxNews a good serve.
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/04/fox-one-lefty-stands-his-ground
Socrates
I don’t agree that the abolition of tariffs (any more than the imposition of tariffs) is something that can be called desirable. As always, it depends on the precise case. In some situations, abolition may be a net good, but in others a net loss.
Fran Bs two favourite terms of abuse at the moment seem to be vapid and vapidity.
Ironic.
Fran
I agree, but in these cases I cannot see the harm. Problems occur when countries with dissimilar laws have free trade that cannot be fair. Japan and Korea have similar processes (and wage rates) to Australia.
Regarding the proposal to scrap ANCAP safety testing of new cars, I partly agree. We should go for harmonisation of car design rules, but the standards vary. We should not adopt the lowest. European and Japanese car safety rules are generally the best. We should adopt theirs. That means some countries that want to export cars here should still be required to test their cars to meet ECC crash test rules. E.g. China, Malaysia and USA.
BK the study finding homeopathy has no effect is welcome. If they are looking for a way to save money, here is a good place to start.
[These finding may affect whether homoeopathy will continue to attract health insurance rebates though.]
Rossmore
[Fran Bs two favourite terms of abuse at the moment seem to be vapid and vapidity.]
I like to mix it up. I could have used vacuous and vacuity, but I’ve used them a bit lately. Certainly, the terms aptly describe much of what passes for politics amongst the governing parties.
John Faulkner’s suggestion on Labor preselections is a good one, but the response shows the guilty parties would rather keep control in opposition than let go and improve their chances at an election.
[But Labor’s NSW general secretary, Jamie Clements, has already publicly opposed the plan, on the grounds it would “silence the voices of affiliated trade union members.”]
Have a good day all.
Putting aside my preference against anything that makes the commercial raising of animals easier, that’s probably true. That said, I’d still like to see a life-cycle emissions-based tariff on imported vehicles.
Geoff Gallop has some interesting observations on Labor reform
https://theconversation.com/the-australian-labor-party-and-the-pitfalls-of-the-politics-of-avoidance-25326?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+9+April+2014&utm_content=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+9+April+2014+CID_4bbd0a6f6eeb3c8a3d8719978ad1547f&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=argues
[I am amazed at one Andrew Tink on 7.30.
He says he subjects himself to injections which suppress his in his own words I think ‘deviant sex drive.’
Which also suppress any hope of ‘normality’ in sexual terms.]
I know Andrew Tink. He and I were at uni in Canberra together, and decades later, we live in the same suburb. He walks a lot for his health, and I regularly meet him in the street when I’m walking my dogs. We exchange pleasantries etc. and move on our separate ways.
He’s not a crackpot, or a deviant. He has prostate cancer, and has been battling it for 6 or 7 years. The drug he takes is part of his treatment for that cancer. As the show pointed out he is “one of thousands of Australian men” who are on it.
Since diagnosis he’s written two books on Austraian history and, despite being a Liberal ex-heavyweight, is a decent bloke.
It believe the drug is used to curb sexual appetite, thus helping with the treatment of the prostate cancer, which is (as youse all know) an organ which is part of the ejaculatory system.
He is an accomplished lawyer, once was Shadow Attorney-General in the State Opposition, was a local member in this area of long-standing, and retains an interest in matters legal.
It is entirely appropriate for him to combine his treatment, with its intended clinical effects, and his long experience of legal matters.
There. I’ve defended a Lib. Clip this post out and pin it to the notice board.
Australian dairy farmers have expressed ”extreme disappointment” over the new ”free trade” deal with Japan, labelling it a ”dud deal” and ”lost opportunity”.
Farmers said it fell well short of dairy industry expectations and would end up producing no meaningful benefit to the industry, one of Australia’s largest agricultural export sectors and a driving force in Victoria’s rural economy.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/trade-deal-with-japan-leaves-dairy-farmers-cheesed-off-20140408-36bef.html#ixzz2yKwVVSqH
With these comments from the dairy industry I wonder how long before the trolls start back peddling from their praise of Abbott and start blaming Labor
According to figures released by the Australian Dairy Industry Council, Japan bought $511 million of Australian dairy exports in 2012-13, making it our biggest customer. But market access in Japan comes at a cost, with dairy exporters paying more than $100 million a year in tariffs and other costs.
The new deal, the council said, would save dairy exporters just $4.7 million in its first year, a figure that would rise to just $11.6 million by 2031.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/trade-deal-with-japan-leaves-dairy-farmers-cheesed-off-20140408-36bef.html#ixzz2yKwmbuLl
[BK the study finding homeopathy has no effect is welcome. If they are looking for a way to save money, here is a good place to start.]
The punters who “believe in” homeopathy will not go down without a fight.
This study will be seen as proof homeopathy is the victim of a conspiracy by rich doctors and the drug industry to make more money.
Their entire schtick is that conventional medicine is out to get them. The more conventional medicine does this, the more convinced homeopaths will be that their system of remedies works.
It’s a bit like the stoush started by the anti-immunization crowd, only the homeopaths will be even more rabid.
The worst are the ones who “believe in” radionics. Radionice is a process by which you pass a bottle of already diluted homeopathic medicine past a “radio” and by doing so you “energize” it, increase its potentcy.
Radionics was “discovered” in the early 20th century when radio sets were cutting edge stuff. As any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, some homeopaths (with a side-talent for fleecing suckers) were enthralled by radio and ascribed magic powers to it.
The original “studies” were done with radios turned ON.
Then one day someone noticed that even if the radio was OFF, potentization still worked.
So they started removing bits and pieces from the radio sets to see which one was doing the magic.
They got down to just the potentiometers (volume knobs to youse), unconnected, and the tuning dials (also unconnected) before the effect started wearing off.
So now, you often find radiologists shoving bottles of pure water (with allegedly 1 single molecule of the remedy in question dissolved in it) inside wooden boxes with disconnected dials on them and then selling this “potentized” medicine for hundreds of dollars, or manufacturing and then flogging the equipment off to gullible “practitioners” for thousands.
Some don’t even bother putting the actual bottles of homeopathic remedies inside their radionics boxes.
They just put the labels in.
You can potentize a lot more when all your subjecting to “radionics aves” is the label. Merely affixing the label to the bottle potentizes the contents of the bottle.
With nutters like these making big bucks from a willing public, there WILL be a shit-fight.
AussieAchmed
[Australian dairy farmers have expressed ”extreme disappointment” over the new ”free trade” deal with Japan, labelling it a ”dud deal” and ”lost opportunity”.]
Robb and McGauchie say “Tough titties” . Gee and I wonder who encouraged these “unrealistic expectations ” ?
[Don’t bleat over slim pickings’
TRADE Minister Andrew Robb and prominent agribusiness leader Donald McGauchie have hit back at the bitter disappointment in some farm sectors with the Japan trade deal, dismissing their criticism as “glass-half-empty, shortsighted comments’’ and warning it is wrong to set unrealistic expectations.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/dont-bleat-over-slim-trade-deal-pickings-farmers-told/story-fn59nm2j-1226878351314#
Good Morning
I see there was another round of Green bashing last night. Is this the unicorn of those opposing Labor reform?
Now I expect Centre to call Greens loons because he is a loon on the subject. eg He makes a claim the Greens are loons for wanting to stop fossil fuel use. Meaning he thinks <argaret Thatcher was a loon.
However others also fall for this . Firstly they do this by pretending that the Greens were at fault for the failure of the ETS first time round. Despite the fact it was thanks to the Greens that we got one when they and not the likes of Fielding had the balance of power.
The results speak for themselves and blaming the Greens for the failure of the right within and without Labor does not change these simple observable facts.
Back to science – How’s that anti-GMO campaign going?
[651…Socrates]
The trade deals offer benefits in several respects. First, they reduce the price of our imports, which will increase real wages. This is a good thing for sure and will help grow the economy.
Second, they offer Australian producers in a couple of industries gradual improvements to their competitive position. But the gains will be stepped over many years and may easily be diluted if Japan or Korea offer similar concessions to our competitors.
Third, the biggest winners from the reduction in tariffs on agricultural products will be Japanese and Korean consumers, who will realise improvements in their real incomes. They should be celebrating as much as anyone.
An interesting read.
https://newmatilda.com/2014/04/07/dont-blame-joe-bullock-labors-flop
[667
AussieAchmed
According to figures released by the Australian Dairy Industry Council, Japan bought $511 million of Australian dairy exports in 2012-13, making it our biggest customer. But market access in Japan comes at a cost, with dairy exporters paying more than $100 million a year in tariffs and other costs.]
This misstates the position. The tariffs are paid by Japanese consumers rather than by exporters. The effect is to reduce effective demand for our exports, which is reflected in both lower volumes and lower prices than might otherwise be the case. But we cannot really know what these effects are, as our competitors are also subject to the same tariffs. If Japan also reduces tariffs on NZ or EU dairy products, we may find we are no better placed to compete in Japan, but Japanese consumers will get windfall income gains.
The biggest losers are Japanese consumers
“@abcnews: #BREAKING: South African-based retail group Woolworths launches David Jones takeover”
A deal may be beneficial while still being a failure, all depending on what you expected to get out of it. I’m not saying that’s the case here, but it seems that commenters regularly fail to properly establish the criteria by which success or failure are judged. It’s done ad hoc, or worse, post hoc.
The fact that something beneficial happened doesn’t make it a success. The fact that harm occured doesn’t make it a failure. If the potential benefit greatly exceeded what was achieved, that may be a failure. If the potential harm greatly exceeded what was achieved, that may be a success.
This may be even more important in a competitive environment where we need to ask what our competitors have achieving.
If after considering all these things, the recent FTAs are considered a success, fine, but I don’t think much of claims of success based off just the fact that they were signed and came with some benefits.
I will at least accept that the latest appears to be beneficial rather than harmful, though. I think those various provisions I was concerned about are not part of it.
It is also not unreasonable or churlish to point out that with a change of government comes a change of values and standards. I don’t necessarily mean lowering, just that they will be different. This government will give or accept things that the previous would not, and vice versa.
Any simplistic comparisons between the current and prior administrations that don’t take into account the differences in values between those administrations should be immediately dismissed as flawed.
[That Mitchell and Webb Look: Homeopathic A&E]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMGIbOGu8q0
“@political_alert: Environment Minister Greg Hunt will hold a doorstop at 10am in Melbourne calling for groups to come forward with Green Army projects #auspol”
“@ABCNews24: Watch: Defence Minister David Johnston is speaking on the future of the submarine fleet http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #auspol #abcnews24”
I mean, if a communist administration was to sign some kind of capitalist trade dealie thing with a foreign country, that would be a huge failure :P.
guytaur
Public speaking doesn’t seem to be a strong suit for Johnston.
BK
Johnston will not make a post parliamentary living on the speech circuit.
guytaur
He looks extremely nervous.
What did he say about the subs? I missed it.
Er… I used the word “radiologists” in #668 above.
I meant “radionicists”, or whatever radionics nutters call their profession.
BK
He has been told not to deviate from the written text by one word. Which he may have done by telling us so.
BK
It’s the pressure of having to simultaneously stand ,talk and think.
BB
“Profession”?
“@redneckninja: Johnston “It is certainly desirable that the new sub wd be built in Aus, but may I underline it is not a blank cheque“ @NewsTalk2UE”
BK, I assume they call what they do a “profession”.
Imteresting the sign behind Johnstone was Lockheed Martin.
Doing so well as a speech that 24 cuts away
“@_AdamTodd: BREAKING: Def Min Johnston dumps govt plan to build 12 subs in Adelaide: “My primary focus is not about numbers but on the capability.””
[“@ABCNews24: Watch: Defence Minister David Johnston is speaking on the future of the submarine fleet http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #auspol #abcnews24”]
very boring speech, mercifully cut short by the ABC….but suggests the LNP is intending to build new subs in Adelaide
[Tariffs are a small component of budget revenue. We need to increase taxes like the GST to fix that, as Henry and Parkinson have already said.
]
Why not increase income and capital gains taxes. Increasing GST / vat is the simple lazy revenue raiser. Companies want it because they want their income tax to reduce, but why any normal individual thinks it is a good idea is totally beyond me.
[The Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption opens today in Sydney, with the inquiry’s recommendations due by the end of December.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-09/royal-commission-into-trade-union-governance-and-corruption/5376772
As an aside
[One of the nation’s most powerful unions has offered to cut labour costs by up to 20 per cent in Western Australia’s construction sector.
Under a proposed new deal the Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union would cut wages, redundancy payouts and other fees and charges due to a downturn in the industry.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-09/cfmeu-offers-to-cut-labour-costs/5377042
So they have money to build stuff for the Navy, but no money to help companies like SPC, or not cut our pensions?
So Abbott is going to inspect the 38th parallel fortifications?
What’s he going to do, give the North Koreans one of his famous noddies to scare them away?
Will Julie Bishop be with him to chuck in a Death Stare?
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/04/more-reports-negative-gearing-is-being-looked-at/
Maybe Hockey will bite the bullet on negative gearing. He will get a lot of praise from the economic rationalists if he does!
[Kate McClymont
Media awaiting today’s #icac trifecta: Eddie Obeid, Tony Kelly, “Little Joe” Tripodi. All mad for sewerage delivery. pic.twitter.com/nKVoF015kh]
[695…victoria]
Inevitable, i reckon.