Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Fortnightly results from Newspoll and Morgan both record shifts to the Coalition, in the former case giving them the lead for the first time in over three months.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition in the lead for the first time since late November, their lead of 51-49 comparing with Labor’s 52-48 lead in the poll of a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up three), 34% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down two). More to follow. UPDATE: Tony Abbott’s net approval improves slightly with approval steady on 40% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 31% and down one to 42%. There is also a less decisive result on preferred prime minister, with Abbott down two to 41% and Shorten down three to 33%. The Australian’s report here.

Morgan had its fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll out today, encompassing 2869 respondents over the past two weekends. It too has Labor losing ground on the previous poll, down from 54-46 ahead on respondent-allocated preferences to 51.5-48.5 (and on previous election preferences, 53.5-46.5 to 52-48), from primary votes of 34.5% for Labor (down four), 38.5% for the Coalition (up half a point), 12% for the Greens (up one point) and 5% for Palmer United (up half).

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average records very little change, with Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for Palmer United, the only change there being a one point drop for Labor. Also featured are the monthly leaders ratings, which have Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 47%, Bill Shorten up two to 32% and down one to 38%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister up from 39-33 to 42-32. Other questions find 25% support for the privatisation of Medibank Private and 46% opposition, 61% expecting it would cause health insurance fees to increase against just 3% who think they would decrease, and 25% approving of the sale of government assets to fund new infrastructure against 58% disapproving. A semi-regular question on climate change finds 56% thinking it caused by human activity, up five on January, with 34% favouring the more skeptical response, down five.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,095 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. briefly

    Indeed it is.

    I had an discussion yesterday regarding the definition of the “middle class”. Apparently Australians for the most part see themselves as belonging to this category. I find that quite amusing

  2. “@LouiseCHall: Full Federal Court quashes Immigration minister’s decision to refuse to grant a Sunni Kurd a protection (class XA) visa”

  3. “@bengrubb: Tor: “If you need strong anonymity or privacy on the internet, you might want to stay away from [it] entirely for the next few days.””

  4. “@political_alert: Australian Human Rights Commission President, Professor Gillian Triggs, will address the National Press Club today from 12.30pm #auspol #npc”

  5. I wonder how much of this ‘underestimated demand’ is from people in regional towns such as me who until abbott got in was to have FTTH by 2017, but am now waiting for a wireless tower with no set date for the area to be serviced? Turnbull is a deceitful prick. For some reason he doesn’t answer my emails asking how he voted on the carbon price and why.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/malcolm-turnbull-says-nbn-plan-must-change-or-300000-will-miss-out-20140408-zqscx.html

  6. It’s just amazes me the ability of ALP boffins across the media to continue to navel-gaze & keep drawing negative public attention to their failings.

    This utterly destructive Govt is gliding through under the radar virtually untouched.

  7. Rex Douglas@710

    It’s just amazes me the ability of ALP boffins across the media to continue to navel-gaze & keep drawing negative public attention to their failings.

    This utterly destructive Govt is gliding through under the radar virtually untouched.

    I agree Rex.

    It’s much better to pretend that everything is fine and steadfastly refuse to make necessary changes. 😐

  8. [I wonder how much of this ‘underestimated demand’ is from people in regional towns such as me who until abbott got in was to have FTTH by 2017]

    SSF
    It’s still going ahead in Taree but guess which pollies hold that area … yep, Federal Lib and State Nat.

  9. Rex Douglas @ 710
    Depressingly true. In a way it’s a good thing, a political party aspiring to govern the country letting “the people” know what’s going on internally. But they never seem to get that no other bastard does it & that all they’re providing is another easy “ALP in crisis” story for a media that sees itself as the ALP’s enemy & hopefully its nemesis.

  10. Large, long lived, organisations grow these labyrinthine structure that make change hard. Unless they are courageous enough to simply sweep it all away and start fresh. Bit like rebuilding your car while on the road :D.

  11. Julia Gillard is one of that band of great Prime Ministers of Australia, and an ALP legend. She had the guts to get rid of that serial pest Rudd and wear the sexist battering of his supporters ever since.

  12. DisplayName@717

    bemused, or wait until things explode when in government!

    Yes, perhaps that is Rex’s preferred option.

    I happen to think adult people can sort out proper reforms without too much drama if they act with good faith in a mature way.

    Unless they harbour a secret desire to share the spoils of defeat, then it is self interest to make meaningful reforms.

  13. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@723

    Julia Gillard is one of that band of great Prime Ministers of Australia, and an ALP legend. She had the guts to get rid of that serial pest Rudd and wear the sexist battering of his supporters ever since.

    That’s the way Puff, keep up the turd polishing. 😐

  14. [Julia Gillard is one of that band of great Prime Ministers of Australia, and an ALP legend. She had the guts to get rid of that serial pest Rudd and wear the sexist battering of his supporters ever since.
    ]

    I think bemused this is a testament to the power of the mind – they really believe this.

  15. bemused

    Where to start.

    Do you recall when the Herald Sun exposed the school fees story, and thereafter resulted in Carl’s death

    [ROBERTA Williams used her husband Carl’s contact with police – who he was assisting in a major investigation – to have their daughter’s school fees paid, the Supreme Court has been told.

    The lead detective dealing with Williams before his jailhouse death today told Matthew Charles Johnson’s murder trial that Roberta had found herself in a position where she could not pay the fees.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/carl/story-fn3dxity-1226136910630

  16. bemused

    This might be more enlightening

    [He said Williams died only hours after he spoke to his client about a story in News Limited papers, which said police have paid $8,000 so Williams’ daughter can attend an exclusive private school.

    Mr Stary said Williams was upset about the story because it exposed his daughter to risk.

    Williams was sentenced in May 2007 to a minimum of 35 years in jail for the murders of gangland rivals – father and son Lewis and Jason Moran, Mark Mallia and Michael Marshall – and conspiracy to murder Mario Condello during Melbourne’s underworld war.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-04-19/carl-williams-bashed-and-killed-in-jail/402028

  17. victoria@729

    bemused

    Where to start.

    Do you recall when the Herald Sun exposed the school fees story, and thereafter resulted in Carl’s death

    ROBERTA Williams used her husband Carl’s contact with police – who he was assisting in a major investigation – to have their daughter’s school fees paid, the Supreme Court has been told.

    The lead detective dealing with Williams before his jailhouse death today told Matthew Charles Johnson’s murder trial that Roberta had found herself in a position where she could not pay the fees.


    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/carl/story-fn3dxity-1226136910630

    Yes, I recall that and I also recall the mysterious disappearance of the governor of the prison in which he was murdered.

    But what can a Coroner do that has not already been done? When people talk about a “coronial investigation”, they seem not to be aware that such an investigation is carried out by the police. The coroner merely runs a hearing and makes findings.

  18. bemused

    Yes i was also going to mention the missing governor.

    An inquest could have turned up some missing pieces to the tangled web that is this case

  19. “@political_alert: Joint Agency Coordination Centre Chief Coordinator, Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston, will hold a press conference at 11am (WST) #MH370”

  20. victoria@732

    bemused

    Yes i was also going to mention the missing governor.

    An inquest could have turned up some missing pieces to the tangled web that is this case

    You obviously have greater faith in Coroners than I do.

    The only way that could come about is if the coroner directed police to take some previously unexplored line of inquiry. I think that is highly unlikely.

  21. [http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/04/more-reports-negative-gearing-is-being-looked-at/
    Maybe Hockey will bite the bullet on negative gearing. He will get a lot of praise from the economic rationalists if he does!

    In the unlikely event he does, then Labor should back him.]

    agreed

    at the very least it should be means tested and restricted – e.g. you are allowed to claim gearing on only one property purchased for up to say $400,000. this would promote some investment in affordable rental properties (which is the argument for negative gearing), but stop people owning a swag of them, pushing up housing and building costs, and paying no tax.

    I worked with a bloke who was paid in the order of $90K per year with his wife on similar income, who had 5+ properties, and as a result of his deliberate ‘losses’ got all of his income tax returned to him and all family benefit payments. Out taxes help to pay off his properties.

    My wife and I paid off our mortgage as fast as we could and constantly had the bank and brokers hassling us to take on debt and minimise tax through gearing – had some interesting chats with them about what tax does and why people who can afford to pay it should pay it – they just could not comprehend what i was saying – I got called a fool more than once and had one say ‘the government wants you to do this – they’ve created this to allow people with money to pay less tax’ and ‘there won’t be a pension by the time you retire’ (it was Howard-Costello years). They’re probably right, but you can make enough on investing in property without gearing, and I resent my taxes going to effectively pay off others wealth creation schemes.

    I was taught by a father who grew up in the depression – ‘pay your taxes – they’re part of the social glue that keeps our society functioning’, but somehow that message is very old-fashioned.

    I’d love to see civics taught in schools – but imagine the version Pyne would want taught – ‘If you aren’t born into privilege, you should just accept your lot, work as hard as you can for whatever people are prepared to pay you in whatever conditions they give you, and not expect anybody to do anything for you or your kids because there is no society. You should also never do anything for anybody else unless you get benefit from it greater than the cost of you doing it. Education is for the privileged, and should only be offered by private schools that produce a conservative ruling class, so stop your socialistic whining.’

  22. [Julia Gillard is one of that band of great Prime Ministers of Australia, and an ALP legend. She had the guts to get rid of that serial pest Rudd and wear the sexist battering of his supporters ever since.

    That’s the way Puff, keep up the turd polishing. ]

    I think you’ll find Puff was being critical of Rudd (the only turd I could see reference to). Puff is spot on about Ms Gillard – she’ll be remembered by the progressive left as a great PM brought down by Rudd, right wing traitors in the party, and a far right backlash in the media, industry and LNP. Rudd will be remembered as another Billy Hughes – a labor party rat who stood for nothing but his own egomania.

  23. “@political_alert: Acting Shadow Defence Minister David Feeney will hold a doorstop at 12.30pm here in Canberra to discuss submarines #auspol”

  24. Sir sustainable future@742

    Julia Gillard is one of that band of great Prime Ministers of Australia, and an ALP legend. She had the guts to get rid of that serial pest Rudd and wear the sexist battering of his supporters ever since.

    That’s the way Puff, keep up the turd polishing.


    I think you’ll find Puff was being critical of Rudd (the only turd I could see reference to). Puff is spot on about Ms Gillard – she’ll be remembered by the progressive left as a great PM brought down by Rudd, right wing traitors in the party, and a far right backlash in the media, industry and LNP. Rudd will be remembered as another Billy Hughes – a labor party rat who stood for nothing but his own egomania.

    Nice try SSF, but the sooner Gillard is forgotten the better.

    Gillard and her team of assassins brought down Rudd and, to their horror, the assassins eventually realised how hopeless she was and reversed their act.

  25. [on about Ms Gillard – she’ll be remembered by the progressive left as a great PM brought down by Rudd, right wing traitors in the party, and a far right backlash in the media, industry and LNP. Rudd will be remembered as another Billy Hughes – a labor party rat who stood for nothing but his own egomania.]

    They will both be remembered as average at best PM’s who only won 1 of three elections cleanly whose reforms were undone and more by Abbott who was the beneficiary of two poorly executed coups, neither of which should have happened. Everywhere but here they’ll largely be remembered together. Gillard will probably be more prominent over time as the first female PM, but will be tainted by how she got it.

  26. WWP

    Gillard will also be remembered for what she got done. it’s been six months and Abbott has not yet made a dent into her work

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