The Daily Telegraph has results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention showing the two major parties tied on two-party preferred, and while the accompanying graphic is spoiled by a production error, it’s clear enough the primary vote results are 43% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. It also finds 56% opposed to cuts in welfare spending against only 34% in support. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 998. The Australian also brings Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates of voting intention broken down by state, gender, age cohorts and capitals-versus-regionals, which have Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 54-46 in South Australia, and trailing 51-49 in Queensland and 54-46 in Western Australia.
UPDATE (ReachTEL): Channel Seven reports the monthly ReachTEL result has Labor leading 52-48 – primary votes will have to wait until the morning. The Seven report also relates that 26% of respondents support the Prime Minister’s decision on imperial titles with 45% opposed, and that only 19% expect to be better off financially over the next year compared with 43% who expect to be worse off, respectively down five and up four on three months ago. More on this poll either this evening or tomorrow.
UPDATE (Essential Research): A considerable move to Labor on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition moving from 51-49 ahead to 51-49 behind. There are also two-point shifts on the primary vote, Labor up to 39% and the Coalition down to 42%, with the Greens steady on 9% and Palmer United down one to 3%.
More re Sheldon Adelson and US MONEY POLITICS see ppost 192
_______________
At the Nevada meeting of the Republican Jewish Congress where Adelson was handing out the BIG money to candidates..the Rep Gov of New Jersey.Christie made an unforgiveable error and spoke of”The Occupied terrorities” on the West Bank
Ouch ..he failed to understand that that term is no longer OK with The Lobby…they must be called”The Disputed Territories”..even though the term”Occupied ” is used by the UN and even the usually tame US Govt
Christie later apologised to Adelson and his boys and presumabely got some ready cash(Adelson actually pays politicians in cash)… for his next campaign in New Jersey
they’s the way the LOBBY works
SEE BELOW… FROM”MONDOWEISS” A LIBERAL JEWISH AND ANTI-ADELSON SITE IN NY
http://mondoweiss.net/2014/03/christie-promptly-apologizes.html
The deaths could also possibly been avoided if all installation workers had to join a Union to be allowed to install the insulation, and have their working conditions subject to union inspection.
A finding like that by the RC (not a hope in hell though) would send the union-bashers insane.
Puffy
A few days ago, it was the one year anniversary of the wall collapse in city of Melbourne. Why doesnt Abbott consider an enqiry into this tragedy. There are so many unanswered quesrions in this case. Here is statement from the Union
[Statement by John Setka, CFMEU Secretary
Today marks 12 months since the collapse of the wall across the road from our office. I will never forget the scene of utter devastation that greeted me when I saw the bricks and debris everywhere.]
http://www.cfmeuvic.com.au
Bemused,
HIV, finding used needles tossed over construction site fences or in buildings being renovated, possible cross infection from some-one who cuts themselves etc It is part of Bio-hazards.
Abbott ain’t never calling a RC into that wall collapse, there is no political gain in it and he might turn over stones some do not want disturbed.
I would imagine Tim Wilson would probably be quite happy to engage with civilized intellectual discussion at this point in time.
He always seems happy to defend his position, and I’m sure briefly is vastly more engaging than most of the correspondence he likely receives.
I have mixed feelings about Wilson and his appointment – I think in one sense Wilson’s appointment may end up being one of the best things that Brandis does (which is not saying a whole lot about the rest of Braindis’ performance), but Wilson’s appointment is clearly part of the culture wars this government is so obsessed with.
Check out his lateline interview:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2013/s3946783.htm
I actually agree with him on a lot of things, although I find his view of some things a bit naive – such as his focus on the exercise of power by governments, when it is the exercise of power by corporations that is increasingly important.
[zoomster
Posted Friday, March 7, 2014 at 6:15 pm | Permalink
Ouch — I can see why Ludlum is so anxious to get votes off Labor.
This is just paper pushing, and a lot of guesswork, but here goes —
Assumptions: the difference between HoR and Senate votes for each party will remain consistent in the re election; the Newspoll figures from December for WA are still vaguely reliable (if anything, Newspoll indicates Labor’s vote has gone up since then).
Not an assumption: quota 14.3 so –
14.3 = 1 Senator,
28.6 = 2 Senators,
42.9 = 3 Senators.
So , 2013 –
Greens HoR 9.7, Senate 9.5
Labor HoR 28.8 Senate 26.6
Lib/Nats HoR 51.2, Senate 44.1]
Zoomster then goes on to use the December quarterly results.
Here’s my take on this using the March quarterly results.
Primaries:
Labor 29 (versus 36 in December)
Coaltion 46 (versus 41 in December)
Greens 15 (versus 10 in December)
Others 10 (versus 13 in December)
Now I’d just like to observe that the Quarterly breakdown has a much higher margin of error for WA. And what follows is as much gut feeling as it is science. However.
Clearly the Greens are on a rising trend nationally, and you could perhaps credit them with 11-12.
The Coalition result of 41 in December to me reads like noise. So too does the 46 now. I’d credit them 44-45.
And for similar reason I think Labor was a little high in December and understated in March. Again, the same sampling noise will cause a mirror image. I’d give them 33-34.
Which puts the others at 9-12.
Now reducing this for the above ratios between HoR primaries and Senate first preferences and we get.
Greens 10.7 to 11.7
Coalition 37.9 to 38.8
Labor 30.5 to 31.4
Clearly the most interesting part of this is what happened to Liberals HoR primaries in the Senate. And will that ratio change. Labor and Greens primaries don’t drift as much. Its also clear that a lot of people who voted Liberal in WA hedged their bets by going for a minor party (and probably a right wing minor party).
Anyhow on those figures alone, the Coalition are very close to a 3rd quota in their own right. (and if you believed the quarterly breakdown they would have under this analysis 39.6, or 2.77 quotas.
So the real question is whether the Liberals get just under their 3rd quota, and soak up some minor party votes to get over the line, or whether they get over a quota and help a minor, presumably right wing, party to snowball.
Labor clearly have 2 quotas in the bag.
And the minor parties would have had to do a very tight swap to get far enough to unseat the Greens for the final place.
That’s my less than expert analysis. Does Antony Green have a calculator up for the WA Senate rerun?
Tim Wilson has sent me the link to the judgement in Eatock v Bolt.
Bolthttp://abalinx.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Eatock-v-Bolt-Judgement.pdf
He asserts that Paragraph 15 establishes an inequality at law, as follows:
[It establishes a test based on a subjective analysis of the views of one group, , not a standard test of a reasonable person that exists in all other discrimination laws, ala the Sex Discrimination Act. Every other test has a standard test, this one is different and therefore people are denied equality before the law as the ground can regularly shift. As said, even those who support (sic) change oppose this subjective test and are happy to clarify it.]
I am puzzled by this and will read the judgment in detail.
We can only wait and see what OH+S issues arise out of the “green army” eh?
Trouble on streets of Kiev draws EU protest
__________________________________
Some days ago in a gun battle with police a neo-Nazi leader and convicted thug was shot dead by Police in Kiev
A rift has developed bewteen the neo-nazi groups and the Govt they helped bring to power
They later invaded the Parl’ment building and tried to force the Police Minister to resign
They now enrcircle the building and attack Minister and members and plan to over throw the govt if they casn
The EU High Rep Catherine Ashton has issued a statement(see below) deploring the situation deveeloping in Kiev..where such grouos are armed and promiment …It is also said that the Uro Bankster are now growing worried about the stability of Govt in Kiev re the loans they seek,
EU says actions in Kiev violate democratioc principle…Ashton
EU chief
_________
http://rt.com/news/ukraine-right-sector-condemned-997/
Deblonay
[More re Sheldon Adelson and US MONEY POLITICS see ppost 192]
Apparently Sheldon Adelson became $US11.5bn richer during the last 12 months. Apparently worth $US38bn or so … Put another way, he earned more in the last year than 224,000 average Americans, and probably had many times their say in politics.
You know it makes sense, to the elite.
debloany @192
Sheldon….
Among his ideas is the idea that Iran could be “brought to heal” by dropping anucleur weapon on a desert area of the country”.He recenbtly favpured the same idea re Russia…which unlike Iran actually has neucleur weapons of its own.
Maybe when the Russians retaliate & look some desert area… Somewhere outside Las Vagas might come to mind
Sheldon like many greedy entrepreneurs understand how to make money from other greedy ( aspiring) individuals, other than that he appears stupid
Seems clive really going after liberals:
Clive Palmer @CliveFPalmer 22m
Is it true @JarrodBleijieMP is lobbying to be the next Chief Justice? #qldpol
Clive Palmer @CliveFPalmer 13m
The @LiberalAus don’t care about WA, only run 16 election ads in @thewest_com_au up until March 27. Only @PalmerUtdParty cares #wavotes
lol
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@204
Hardly unique to construction, but fair enough.
Abbott just had a presser.
WA has signed up to NDIS.
I 😆 @ Labor set a budget booby trap.
I hope voters do too.
oh oh
“@ABCNews24: Sth Korea returns fire into Nth Korean waters after live-fire drills conducted by North. @tonyeastley + @KimMLanders with latest this hour.”
@abcnews: #Breaking: Former Tasmanian premier Lara Giddings has resigned as Labor leader. Caucus elects Bryan Green as leader #politas
Deblonay – How much weight should I give to stories affecting Russia on RT (Russia Today) an organisation funded by the Russian Government and who’s Editor in Chief’s stated intent is to “reflect Russia’s opinion of the world”. Not much I think.
Jackol
I think it was Kate Ellis’ husband who recently said Abbott hadn’t grown out of his student politics days.
[Caucus elects Bryan Green as leader ]
A Green has triumphed over Labor … 😉
Seems Joe Hockey has redefined the Budget , he can now try to blame the ALP for two terms worth of estimates.
guytaur:
I thought WA had already signed up to the NDIS. I know we have an NDIS trial site here.
confessions
Mr Rudd announced it during election campaign? Not sure as memory hazy
Is Abbott re-releasing ALP stuff for the WA Election? Sure looks like it.
Note the date.
[WA signs on to Disability Care
Updated Sun 4 Aug 2013, 12:47pm AEST
WA signs on to Disability Care
The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says he has reached a deal with Western Australia over the national disability insurance scheme, known as Disability Care Australia.
Western Australia had been the only state not to have signed up to the policy.
Speaking outside his home in Brisbane this morning, Mr Rudd said there would two pilot projects in Western Australia.
“In long negotiations over the weekend we have concluded an agreement with Western Australia,” he said.
“I spoke to Premier Colin Barnett last night and WA is now going to participate in the Disability Care Australia Scheme.”
Mr Barnett says he is pleased with the compromise deal reached with the Commonwealth.
“@CliveFPalmer: The @australian gives away more papers each day than it sells. Staff jobs safe? Is Chris Mitchell looking over his shoulder ? #mediawatch”
The headlines are going to be a bit confusing in Tasmania: “Green attacks Green”
And then there is this, addressed to the Commissioner…
[Tim,
At the very least, you would have to concur that Bolt’s publications were intended to discredit Eatock and the other plaintiffs. How this discredit is brought about (or not) is very much for the court to determine.
To the observer here, it seems that Eatock et al were wrongly and publicly upbraided either for being “falsely” aboriginal, or not sufficiently “white” or for being in some way proud enough of themselves to irritate Mr Bolt. The simple facts are Bolt made quite erroneous claims about Eatock and the others with respect to their identity. Considering that aborigines were hardly considered to have a legal existence, let alone a personal identity, until relatively recently, this is almost self-evidently racist. Identity, of course, is an intrinsically subjective matter and has to be treated accordingly if it to be understood.
The complaint that Eatock at el received unequal treatment appears to arise because the facts of their identity were considered by the court. How can it possibly make sense that in order to establish a claim of discrimination, an aborigine must first dispose of the argument that their identity grants them a legal advantage? This is to take Bolt’s fallacy into the realm of the absurd.
briefly]
Puffy Having seen a union member be one of two injured workers sacked the union more than likely wouldn’t have been much help.
Interesting argument and counter argument about charging patients extra for self induced hospital visits, such as for injuries occurring while drunk.
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-31/doggett-charging-for-risky-behaviour-a-flawed-plan/5356264
briefly
The Eacock v Bolt judgement was very interesting particularly the part where Bolt tried to claim there was on real motive in the articles yet at the time i recall reading them and it was clear for anyone reading the article that Bolt had an agenda.
In my view Bolt did a poor job of defending himself in that case thus should have taken a long hard look at himself rather than complain about s18c/s18d
on = no
[ “Green attacks Green” ]
Sounds pretty good :devil:
Ever been in an A&E ward during the football season? I wonder if sports people should pay extra?
rua:
Yes, it certainly looks that way. They announced something about a pension increase recently that was already locked and loaded by the previous govt.
So ABC reports:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-31/western-australia-signs-up-to-the-ndis-trials/5356978
And the SMH reports last year:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/rudd-deals-pave-way-for-poll-20130804-2r6z2.html
WTF???
I suspect that the “excuse” will be that they are announcing the “detail” of the scheme in W.A.
[ Ever been in an A&E ward during the football season? I wonder if sports people should pay extra? ]
Absolutely!
Another Liberal debacle caused by pandering to the loony libertarian IPA.
[Donations from the Jewish community to the Liberal party and physical support such as letterboxing could be affected by the government’s proposal to remove “offend, insult and humiliate” and broaden the exemptions in the Racial Discrimination Act, a prominent Jewish leader has warned.
Peter Wertheim, executive director of the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, said while he suspected only a small number of the Jewish community would change their votes on the issue, it could affect donations to the Coalition and on-the-ground support for the Liberal party.
“It is a very difficult thing to judge without clear empirical evidence but I suspect the vote will change for a small number of people but it could impact support for the government in terms of donations, letterboxing and all the other things people do to support,” Wertheim said.
]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/31/jewish-donations-to-liberal-party-could-be-hit-by-race-act-changes
and Benjamin is another who thinks watering down racial discrimination laws is from an earlier time
[Benjamin Chow is a prominent Liberal member of Sydney’s Chinese community, a close friend of John Howard and a key fundraiser through the Liberal party Chinese council. Chow said the council was established to mobilise support, communicate with the Chinese media and also fundraise “mostly in election years”.
Chow said the Racial Discrimination Act should be left alone, notwithstanding some “valid points on freedom of speech issues”.
“On balance, it should be left alone. It doesn’t need to be changed,” Chow said. “Symbolically, it is significant because I would fully expect the ALP to mount an effective campaign. It doesn’t take a genius to work that out. It is a very good tool but the question is whether it really catches on.
“Whether it will change votes in the Chinese community, I don’t know but all I can be sure is the ALP will play this up.”
]
[ruawake
Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 4:19 pm | Permalink
Ever been in an A&E ward during the football season? I wonder if sports people should pay extra?]
My experience was that, unless they are high profile, they do pay but only id time and suffering, pushed to the back of every queue by the medical staff. I remember waiting for hours on a gurney in a corridor of the Cairns hospital just to get x-rayed with a foot at a right angle to my leg, and being told by a number of staff that as a footballer it was self inflicted. Finally operated on late at night with little attention or information and no pain killers given to me in the 8 hrs I was waiting. Perhaps this has changed.
ruawake@234
There is no valid comparison to be made between sporting injuries and injuries caused by indulging in stupid behaviour.
Sport is something young people in particular are encouraged to participate in for the benefits of healthy exercise.
There is nothing positive to be said about over indulging in alcohol or using illicit drugs.
Bemused 182
[In a way, it was better that Darwin took effect and it was the stupid installer who died rather than some innocent.
Harsh, but true.]
OHS procedures are designed to avoid death by stupidity, or by temporary carelessness or mummy or daddy brainfades or similar.
I welcomed the investigation into these deaths. But this targeted RC is clearly for political purposes.
I would add that this RC is not only designed to hurt the ALP but to damage the reputation of government works in general. It is aimed at increasing the political risks of such works – reducing the chance of fair and even competition between government works and private industry works. Abbott at his ideological menacing best.
I foresee it will come back to bite the PM on his highnesses hiney.
Does anyone who lives in Melbourne know Schnappi please. A few of us are worried about him he is 77 and lives alone, no tweets except the unfollowers list each day. None of us can raise him on twitter or email and this is most unusual for him
[231….mexicanbeemer]
Bolt is a very misguided individual. He did a slovenly job as a journalist and had little with which to defend himself, just reading the case…
mari
Sorry i dont know schnappi. Only via his tweets and posts here.
Do you happen to know his name?
Deb
I heard some of the US Sec of State speech this morning and it was very interesting. While he stressed the Ukraine independence theme and Russia naughty and it troops are scary, as might be predicted he ALSO spoke firstly about the DEMAND Ukraine treat its minorities fairly and that there be free and fair elections. Clearly the world including the US has woken up to the fact that firstly the Ukraine government has some (NOT ALL) real loonies who show signs of favouring ethnic persecution of some kind but ALSO that the destabilizing of the original government has given the street thugs a sense of their own power and that this can be and is being used against the new government.
We know Putin called the meeting so I am guessing that Putin said very clearly wte that Russia was NOT interested in taking over Ukraine but if there was any suggestion of violence against ethnic Russians or Russian speakers he would be in like Flynn. ie Putin told Kerry that he had better manage to control the Ukraine loonies or Russia would.
For those interested in following icaca, here is kate McClymont tweeter feed
https://mobile.twitter.com/Kate_McClymont
sprocket, the LNP have chosen to make Bolt into a “cause.” There can hardly be a less-deserving or more self-pitying and self-gratifying prat to have made his/her way into print. If they really need heroes, the LNP could at least find a good one.
Oops icac
Simon Katich@242
The government didn’t do any works. Private contractors did. So I fail to see how the RC can ‘damage the reputation of government works in general’ as you suggest. These days, governments have very little capacity to actually carry out any works.