The Daily Telegraph has results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention showing the two major parties tied on two-party preferred, and while the accompanying graphic is spoiled by a production error, it’s clear enough the primary vote results are 43% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. It also finds 56% opposed to cuts in welfare spending against only 34% in support. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 998. The Australian also brings Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates of voting intention broken down by state, gender, age cohorts and capitals-versus-regionals, which have Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 54-46 in South Australia, and trailing 51-49 in Queensland and 54-46 in Western Australia.
UPDATE (ReachTEL): Channel Seven reports the monthly ReachTEL result has Labor leading 52-48 – primary votes will have to wait until the morning. The Seven report also relates that 26% of respondents support the Prime Minister’s decision on imperial titles with 45% opposed, and that only 19% expect to be better off financially over the next year compared with 43% who expect to be worse off, respectively down five and up four on three months ago. More on this poll either this evening or tomorrow.
UPDATE (Essential Research): A considerable move to Labor on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition moving from 51-49 ahead to 51-49 behind. There are also two-point shifts on the primary vote, Labor up to 39% and the Coalition down to 42%, with the Greens steady on 9% and Palmer United down one to 3%.
[FFS]
Who is FFS?
Oh Family First.
dave – of course Zoomster was working off the previous quarter’s Newspoll figures. If you do a similar analysis based on the current figures Ludlam looks home without preferences.
I imagine the actual/final result will be somewhere in between, but the most likely outcome remains 3/2/1, and I would be quite surprised if Ludlam didn’t get in fairly easily this time, and the ALP should get its 2 comfortably as well.
But it’s a by-election – anything can happen.
[lol. I’m assuming “FFS” is not Family First’s official abbreviation!]
It should be.
Leroy Lynch @143
Palmer ran a big advertising campaign for the Tasmanian election, with at least as many TV spots as the majors, and a DVD to every household. It had no apparent effect, with PUP not improving on their result at the Federal election or on pre-campaign polling.
[Home insulation inquiry: Bureaucrat testifies no national training program was available.
Federal Environment Department assistant secretary Kevin Keeffe has told the inquiry in Brisbane that when the program was being devised, there was no national training program available and creating one was beyond the scope of the scheme.
Two months before the insulation scheme was introduced, the requirement for mandatory training was removed, and installers only had to obtain an occupational health and safety white card.
]
And they were right, the White Card was enough, and how is obtaining WC suddenly an ‘only’. A person cannot legally work on a building site anywhere in Australia without one.
In SA you can’t work anywhere in building without one. Maybe that is why no-one died in SA in the Home Insulation Program and they did interstate.
I have a White Card. Anyone who followed the OHS&W training to get the card would not have died installing insulation. Each and every installer who died breached basic OH&S procedures for he building industry, imo.
I don’t watch much commercial TV, mostly just the footy, but I haven’t seen any PUP adverts here. During the footy yesterday I saw about 3 Labor ads.
Link:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-31/home-insulation-inquirybureaucrat-testifies-no-national-training/5356406
ReachTEL poll of four Queensland seats by the Australian Salaried Medical Officers Federation
Ashgrove: LNP 46 ALP 54
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/asmof-ashgrove-poll-26march2014
Cairns: LNP 41 LNP 59
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/asmof-cairns-poll-26march2014
Ipswich West: LNP 42 ALP 58
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/asmof-cairns-poll-26march2014
Mundingburra: LNP 44 ALP 56
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/asmof-mundingburra-poll-26march2014
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@156
Well fancy that!
States run TAFEs to provide vocational training. They also run OH&S.
That should be the end of that particular line of inquiry into the Federal Govt. HIP.
spur212@159
Well the LNP has Cairns sewn up. 😛
This seems to have slipped through the net. Four state level QLD electorate Reachtel robo polls.
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/asmof-mundingburra-poll-26march2014
Mundingburra
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/asmof-ipswich-west-poll-26march2014
Ipswich West
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/asmof-cairns-poll-26march2014
Cairns
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/asmof-ashgrove-poll-26march2014
Ashgrove
Spur
You have Cairns showing LNP twice!
Know it is an error but on those figures Qld will be a basket case for the Libs.
Campbell Newman eat your heart out!
Spur
You have Cairns showing LNP twice!
Know it is an error but on those figures Qld will be a basket case for the Libs.
Campbell Newman eat your heart out!
From wiki
[Fuller, a 25-year-old qualified electrician, died on 6 December 2009. Electrocution was due to a metal staple creating an electrical contact between the metal foil insulation being installed and live 240-volt AC electrical wiring. He had been booked in to complete the “Ceiling Installers Program” induction course but it had been postponed due to a prior personal commitment. His employer was of the view the laying of foil insulation with metal staples was not a high risk practise for him as an electrician.
Sweeney, a 22-year-old experienced insulation installer, was similarly electrocuted due to a metal staple contacting live electrical wiring. He had completed the “Ceiling Installers Program”, which was regarded by his employer as having provided adequate safety training. After the death of Fuller, government regulations required the use of plastic staples. However Sweeney possessed his own staple gun designed for metal staples and preferred to use metal staples since he found they made installation faster.
Barnes, a 16-year-old apprentice carpenter, was electrocuted installing fibreglass insulation. He most likely came into contact with a metal ceiling batten which was floating at main’s voltage due to contact with live electical wiring. The wiring had been unusually placed during construction of the building, and subsequently a screw used to attach fibreboard to the batten had penetrated its sheath, creating a dangerous hazard for anyone entering the roof space with the mains power switched on. Barnes had no specific safety training, with his employer believing that his previous experience as an apprentice carpenter was adequate.
Wilson, aged 19, died of complications related to hyperthermia on 21 November 2009. He was working in St Clair, a suburb in western Sydney, where temperatures had climbed to over 40 °C (104 °F). Despite some training at TAFE in installing insulation, Wilson had little experience and was filling in for a friend, unbeknownst to the friend’s employer. Wilson was accompanied by an experienced installer, who removed roof tiles to provide some ventilation. However the high ambient temperature and the strenuous work involved with lifting fibreglass “pink batts” into the roof space appear to have caused Wilson to become dehydrated. He was provided with a cold drink by the homeowner, at his request, and his coworker encouraged him to take breaks as required. His coworker then told him to go and wait in the cabin of the truck they were using. Wilson apparently went to the truck, only to return to the roof space, having left his bag behind in the truck. The presence of the bag there gave the impression to the coworker that Wilson had walked off due to being disgruntled about the heat. The coworker went driving in search of Wilson when in fact Wilson had collapsed in the roof space and was found by the homeowner. He was rushed by ambulance to hospital where he later died.]
So how was the Minister supposed to guard against stupidity?
And why did not Rudd the Dudd defend his Minister and put a stop to the meme of the ‘deadly’ program? The program was not deadly, but it was a cursory lesson in the need to follow OHS&W.
[Worker fatalities
As at 18 March 2014, 30 Australian workers have been killed while at work.]
http://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/sites/swa/statistics/work-related-fatalities/pages/worker-fatalities
You have to love pollsters, never let facts get in the way of a poll, Tassie and SA show this poll is bulldust.
Reachtel
As one who was polled, if anything the data underestimates the opposition to Newman, because the order of questions tended to favour an accidental press 1 reply.
Seat level polling had shockingly bad results at the last Federal election.
I realize these polls are more to make a political point than anything else, but I wouldn’t read overly much into them.
Very funny Bemused 😛
I meant LNP 41 ALP 59
Spur and my post to was posted twice 😆
Jackol
I recommenced taking a look at the response to some of the questions from these polls. I’d definitely pay attention to them!
Sorry MTBW didn’t see you there 😛
Spur
We all got the message though and it is a great result many thanks!
Spur
We all got the message though and it is a great result many thanks!
Bemused.
I got my White Card when I did the TAFE Cert 2 in Wood Trades. This included a Construction component.
This is the TAFE training apprentices complete, and by doing it they go to seek an apprenticeship with White Card in hand and three years of apprenticeship studies completed. Safety is emphasised every step of the way. Experienced carpenters-teachers told us stories of accidents they have witnessed and show gory photos. Sunburn, cancer, heat, dust, cold, electrocution, now even mental health and bullying is included.
There is no way any of those workers should have died if they did not take dangerous risks.
I changed the batteries in my mouse yesterday to try and stop double posting but it is back again. 😡
Here is a description of the training to get a White Card.
http://training.gov.au/Training/Details/CPCCOHS1001A
Note the definition of a hazard:
[Hazard relates to:
any thing (including an intrinsic property of a thing) or situation with the potential to cause injury or harm.
Common construction hazards include:
confined spaces
electrical safety
excavations, including trenches
falling objects
hazardous substances and dangerous goods
HIV and other infectious diseases
hot and cold working environments
]
Like hot roofs, live elasticity connected to a ceiling you are about to drill into, using metal staples when you are issued plastic ones.
One young lad was told to get out of the roof, but without informing anyone, he went back in there. He did not follow the instructions of his supervisor.
One of these installers was an electrician. He would have undergone stringent OH&S (or should have) to get his trade papers. He drilled foil insulation with the electricity turned on.
Sometimes there is nothing anyone can do to prevent the consequences of wilful stupidity.
spur212@169
Yes, occasionally typos can be highly amusing. 😀
And it is about time someone stands up and says it, and stop this national outpouring of grief and mea culpa over four deaths, by men too stupid to keep themselves alive through following simple instructions and clear procedures, by a nation which has said stuff-all about the thirty workers who have died on worksites so far this year.
The whole notion of anyone thinking they can do significant work in a live roof space on a building of unknown history and unknown construction/wiring is insane. I would have thought turning the power off at the fuse box and putting a big red tag on the handle saying “don’t turn this on” was the very first thing anyone would do.
But I guess not.
Abbott gets the stick today from Vanstone in Fairfax
_____________________
Her column is usually a love-in for the Libs but she takes Abbott to task over the Titles Issue…saying he risks being made to look a figure of fun(backed up by a very clever cartoon in which he is shown as a medieval Jester acting in front of a worried cabinet
BTW … Is Hockey trying to forewarn of some attacks on the Aged Pension..?? .funny if so…because it’s their heartland of support
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@177
HIV is a common construction hazard???
What do they get up to?
If they did stupid things with foil and metal staples with the power turned off, and one or more staples penetrated an electrical cable, then as soon as they turned the power back on, the roof cavity became a death trap for any unwitting householder or trades person entering it.
In a way, it was better that Darwin took effect and it was the stupid installer who died rather than some innocent.
Harsh, but true.
Puff
I had insulation done in my roof at the time but I went to a business that has been around for yonks.
Every man and his dog thought he could be a roof installer and employ anyone off the street to do an installation.
I wonder how many of these people gave a toss whether those they employed to do the job could actually had any training.
Alright to lay those sad deaths at the feet of the Government but who was overseeing the qualifications of those they employed.
deblonay@181
I posted a link to that cartoon earlier, but here it is again:
“had actually had”
Puff
________
Yes there is no suggestion of an enguiry into some dangerous industries,which in theory are covered by a raft of safety/health regulations
In practice the employers are the people responsible for the safety of workers…but this is a political stunt by Abbott and Co…nothing to do with workers safety…in whom they would normally have no interest at6 all…
[Paul Farrell @FarrellPF 19m
How donors get their money to Labor and the Coalition: interactive http://gu.com/p/3z2va/tw fantastic work from @nickevershed ]
Michael Grelis @Mickledrippin 4m
@MinhKular @randlight @mackaysuzie @boldfieldwa Intrigued by haste,with Rann 18months to go.Getting Downer out before Timor L’este judgement
I never thought of that????
puff
Your post about how the 4 guys died just illustrates how ridiculous the whole inquiry is.
It’s hard to credit.
Even if the judgment annuls the treaty signed because of spying resulting in the Howard government’s negotiations “not being in good faith”, what difference will it make if Downer is here or there? I actually would think having Downer in London would be a worse look if the intention was to minimize the damage of an adverse outcome from the Australian government’s perspective.
Downer being here just means lots of bluster and stonewalling … Downer in London just means lots of bluster and stonewalling and having our representative in London looking dodgy.
[And why did not Rudd the Dudd defend his Minister and put a stop to the meme of the ‘deadly’ program? ]
I can rmemeber thinking at the the time they had the Coalition licked on this issue.
Right at the death, Barrie Cassidy got the “mea culpa” (as they called it) out of Rudd, and the rest was all downhill. It was, in myopinion, Rudd’s first and close to his greatest mistake.
You had to fell the vibe, but I thought Labor had won the fight, until Rudd tried to do a “Beattie”.
I was always under the impression that they HAD no comparative safety data. In that context it WAS too rushed. If they’d produced what Possum (and at least one other) had produced they might have been able to calm things down a bit.
But the media and the Coalition concentrated (very skilfully, I thought) on the “deaths” aspect (as well as the “fires” aspect, without bothering to mention that over 1 million homes were completed during the project.
Now we have a Royal Commission pretty-well specifically called to provide “closure” to the parents of three of the boys, which is an outrage, of course. I bet there are lots of other parents who’d like Royal Commissions into their sons’ or daughters’ deaths in, say, road accidents, or drownings, or via drug deaths.
Pity there’s no Royal Commission into the number of people employed from the scheme and the number of companies that survived the GFC as a result.
Abbott must have been assured that there will be no such sticky-beaking into the Green Army, years after the event.
The Shame of US POlitics
______________________
Prof Cole in his daily column”Informed Opinion ” looks at the way vastly wealthy men who dominate the US political scene
Sheldon Adelson,the Casino king who made a vast fortune in Macau,and elsewehere,and is self described as the”wealthiest Jew in the USA” now runs the Rupublican Jewish Council …to funnel money to his choices for public office
Among his ideas is the idea that Iran could be “brought to heal” by dropping anucleur weapon on a desert area of the country”.He recenbtly favpured the same idea re Russia…which unlike Iran actually has neucleur weapons of its own
He spent tens of million on the camaign for the(failed)candidacy of Newt Gingrish ,a hard line-line right winger and former House Speaker
He also specialises in union-pbadshing having taken on the unions in Nevada where he was successful in forcing down wages of workers in his casinos there
Prof Cole looks at these vulture capitalists(to use Naomi Wolf great phrase)…but money is no objects. He says he is willing to spend a Billion to elect a president of his choice
see Cole below
http://www.juancole.com/2014/03/politics-presidential-blessing.html
mari
Did you see my comment re Mike Carlton – he has changed his twitter handle to Viscount Carlton.
http://www.zdnet.com/hockey-wants-state-govts-to-lead-online-tax-push-7000027866/
“Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey has indicated he is seeking for the states to finalise a proposal to tax goods worth less than AU$1,000 purchased through overseas online retail outlets by the end of this year.”
“Prior to the federal election last year, Treasurer Joe Hockey promised that there would be “no change to the GST [goods and services tax]. End of story”. This promise included taxing goods purchased through online overseas retailers.”
Another broken promise.
As bludgers are aware, I wrote to Tim Wilson in response to an article published in the Age, and relating to arguments in favour of amending Section 18c and 18d of the Racial Discrimination Act.
Mr Wilson replied, and I in turn have replied to him, as follows:
[Dear briefly,
Thank you for your email.
The article in question did not go into the detail of the substance, which relates to the interpretation of the “reasonably likely” test.
Under case law it has been interpreted in a way that creates inequality before the law. This has been acknowledged by opponents of a change, and yesterday they publicly agreed that there were avenues to change it to make sure everyone is equal before the law.
It is a pity that The Age did not cover that dimension of the story.
I have consistently made it clear that I oppose racial vilification, as I do for vilification on the basis of sex, sexuality, gender identity, disability, etc. etc.
Kind regards,
Tim Wilson
Tim Wilson
Human Rights Commissioner
Australian Human Rights Commission
Level 3, 175 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000
GPO Box 5218, Sydney NSW 2001
T +61 2 9284 9836 M +61 418 228 465 F +61 2 9284 9794
E tim.wilson@humanrights.gov.au W http://www.humanrights.gov.au]
My response goes as follows:
[Dear Tim,
Thank you for your reply.
With respect to the possible creation of a legal inequality, I would appreciate it if you could direct me to the relevant case/s. On its face, this sounds like either an aberration or a mis-interpretation and I would like to read them for myself, if that is possible.
On the wider issue at stake here, I would like to make the (hardly novel) point that certain speech (or other forms of expression) can constitute a form of assault, depending on who is expressing what to whom. Surely each of us may best enjoy our personal freedom/s if we are able to live without the threat or actual experience of assault by others. Acceptance of this underlies the prohibition on violence generally as well as the proscriptions of vilification and the expression of racial hatred.
In a parallel sense, it could be argued that the law of defamation stands to protect the property we all have in own reputations and sense of personal dignity. It seems to me that public abuse, insults, denigration and displays of contempt may represent a form of property damage, and should be curbed on that basis alone. I would go one step further too and argue that our individual right to privacy is infringed when we are traduced by another, even if this occurs in private.
I also make the further point that the exercise of “classical liberal” rights – I’ve read your website – only really makes much sense if they rest upon and give expression to a firmly principled concept of person-hood. We have inherent (inalienable) individual rights to self-determination, dignity and a unique identity. In a sense, these constitute our personal freedom itself. It also seems to me they are indivisible from each other and from our ability to act both freely and responsibly in society.
If the Act is going to be amended, it should be done in ways that develop the concept of personal self-determination. The law should certainly give protection to the free pursuit of self-determination, and, in particular, should offer protection against the threat or experience of violence whether by other individuals, the State or by other social organs, such as corporations, social clubs and informal groups. Furthermore, for the purposes of the defence of individual freedom, violence should be defined broadly enough that it includes expressions of abuse, indignity, disgrace or contempt.
Naturally, these rights and their protection should be afforded to all of us equally, and should be able to be applied using the conventional legal tests as to factual circumstances and intentionality.
I would be very happy to develop these concepts further if you see any merit in doing so.
Regards,
briefly]
the Lachlan and Gina kiss of death playing out. Giving Bolt an hour long show, and stacking The Project with shock jocks has the punters voting with their remotes.
[Network Ten has recorded its worst weekly audience share for prime time on record.
The free-to-air television network had a 13.8 per cent share of total audience from 6pm to midnight last week, placing it fourth behind the ABC, which had a 17.9 per cent share.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/ten-records-worst-ever-ratings-20140331-35ssk.html#ixzz2xVgRdI00
MTBW
Yes he is so funny Mike Carlton I am waiting for Dennis Shanahan to become Lord Shanahan . 😀 Mind you he doesn’t tweet I don’t think
Thanks for posting that briefly. At least he had the courtesy to respond.
Abbott should have recalled parliament so he could make an announcement in the HOR
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-applauds-international-cooperation-in-search-for-missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-20140331-35sz3.html
briefly
Me thinks, Tim Wilson may not aporeciate your response. 😀