The Daily Telegraph has results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention showing the two major parties tied on two-party preferred, and while the accompanying graphic is spoiled by a production error, it’s clear enough the primary vote results are 43% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. It also finds 56% opposed to cuts in welfare spending against only 34% in support. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 998. The Australian also brings Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates of voting intention broken down by state, gender, age cohorts and capitals-versus-regionals, which have Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 54-46 in South Australia, and trailing 51-49 in Queensland and 54-46 in Western Australia.
UPDATE (ReachTEL): Channel Seven reports the monthly ReachTEL result has Labor leading 52-48 – primary votes will have to wait until the morning. The Seven report also relates that 26% of respondents support the Prime Minister’s decision on imperial titles with 45% opposed, and that only 19% expect to be better off financially over the next year compared with 43% who expect to be worse off, respectively down five and up four on three months ago. More on this poll either this evening or tomorrow.
UPDATE (Essential Research): A considerable move to Labor on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition moving from 51-49 ahead to 51-49 behind. There are also two-point shifts on the primary vote, Labor up to 39% and the Coalition down to 42%, with the Greens steady on 9% and Palmer United down one to 3%.
silentmajority:
I’m in WA but don’t get what you’re saying about the banner. To me it looks the same way it did yesterday, last week, a month ago.
@Mod Lib/1650
No it was not smart, it was a smart retort, I do wish you stop playing games, it’s getting boring, and rather patronizing at times.
And No it is not clever, since they have not done anything for 6 months.
[WTF is the point of that?]
1. Balance.
2. Ratings.
There’s your ABC charter right there.
deblonay
Posted Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 9:45 pm | PERMALINK
Prof Wallerstein (Binghampton U)looks at the rise of “Libertarian “Politics in the Repub Party and the role of Senator Rand Paul as a centre of the idea in the USA
_________________
A new idea inside the tradional conservative Repub. Party ,”libertarianisn” has an clear opposition to the
state”…. ,and has ideas about civil liberties that conflict with”security”politics
He is also of a view that a total isolationist position is what the US requires in world affairs
For example,,,re the current crisis over Ukraine he believes that the US should have no policy at all on the Crimea…and that it is of no alue or concern to the US what happens there
remarkable policies after several generations of US imperial policies in which military intervention was universal
http://www.iwallerstein.com/commentaries/
———-here we go, the ideological risted on underbelly of the new left. why the left has no future – it is not wedded to democratic and communal principles, it is still fighting 20th century battles …
now delonay, third time.
1) do you advocate putin should invade Ukraine
2) would you like to live in russia today, in preference say to France (the latter with all its nasty neo fascists)
@Astrobleme 1481
[Centre
“This may come as a surprise to you but there are quite a few in the Labor Party who believe that they should let the carbon tax go”
why on Earth would you want to let it go?]
Because Centre doesn’t actually care about things like policy or how real people are affected by government decisions. Politics is just another sport for him to put a punt on, and Labor simply the team he barracks for head. As long as his team wins the the game, who gives a shit about all that other boring stufd.
Stuff, even.
PB seems a bit like a group of souls huddled in a corner from the riff raff of daily politics huddled over coffee and a long game – like chess – with endless usually quiet commentaries – many elderly but not all, many male but not all –
“@TenLateNews: BREAKING NEWS :Boeing has announced up to 300 workers at the company’s Port Melbourne site will lose their jobs #EyewitnessNews”
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 1m
Copper in our neighborhood is rooted. Moved to Telstra cable and it rips in at around 130 Mbps. Upload – 2. Turnbulling the future
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 2m
So saying though – Malcolm is pretty used to only doing half a political job on anything he touches. Why change with the NBN
There has been alot of discussions elsewhere about FTTdp (which is essentially Fiber-To-The-Street), but the technology requires that to have a maximum distance of 200m for any decent speed.
@1655
I have no idea why the word “head” appears after “barracks for” there.
Sometimes I do loathe my phone.
so, how much does anyone here think the rapid introduction of a relatively high rate of carbon tax (which could have been debated rationally here if it wasn’t for the divisive opportunism of abbott) has been factor in reduction of manufacturing.
it is strange that CT (apparently pushed by greens) flies in face of fabian reform logic (stop small, gradually introduce in steps) – by starting high then falling to lower ets.
Re Silentmajority @1625: There’s. A. Liberal. Party. Banner. At. The. Top. Of. The. Page…
There’s a banner ad for a Real Estate chain on the top of my page. I have been involved in real estate lately and have been investigating via Google. Maybe you have visited the Liberal Party site recently. It’s targeted advertising.
[1614
confessions
briefly:
How do you see Australia’s economy playing out over the next year or two? I note from polling that people perceive they’ll be worse off financially into the future, and I hope that isn’t the case in reality.]
I’m still in a bearish frame of mind, confessions. The things that worry me are much the same as before – very weak growth in real disposable per capita incomes, retarded growth in jobs, terribly weak investment, very high household indebtedness, ongoing erosion of the terms of trade, the imminent decline of the mining investment/ engineering boom.
Cuts in interest rates have stimulated some new housing construction, which is good, but also triggered a speculative burst in the property markets in Sydney and Melbourne, which is likely to end in tears.
Meanwhile, the AUD has been rising instead of falling, so we will not get a new round of investment in the domestically-facing economy. We will see closures instead.
Of course, the budget is just stuffed and has been made worse by the ideological fixations of the LNP.
Maybe things will right themselves, but I’m not optimistic. We need a decent real depreciation in order to make the economy competitive again. If that happened, we would see fresh investment, improving productivity, growing incomes, better labour demand, improving consumption and stronger household and public finances. But it’s not happening. All we have is an over-valued exchange rate and a (soon to fade) burst of speculation in property.
The issue is income! Household incomes have been more or less static for some time and this is not going to improve. Until it does, the economy will languish. If there are any shocks (say, from the Government or from China) or if the exchange rate keeps rising, the risk of contraction will become very high.
Well tomorrow is Icac day for Sinodinos. Will be interesting.
Goodnight
confessions:
Oh, OK. Yes it is an appalling decision. However, the removal of the legal advice provisions for asylum seekers who make it here, is insignificant in comparison with dumping them in Malaysia to fend for themselves, which you seem to support.
Of course the reason you said that you supported Malaysian rendition was because you thought the most important thing was stopping the boats.
The boats have stopped under this government, and now you call them extremists.
….and you question me about this issue?
YIKES!
[1627
confessions
Name one bill originated by the Greens that has passed the parliament.
Increasing the debt limit.]
I thought they abolished the whole thing….
No real estate ad that I can see, all I get is a sexist MGSM ad.
Re geoffrey @1661: the impact of the carbon price would have been small compared to the increase in the price of power for other reasons, the increase in the Australian $ since 2008 from the low 60s to parity and beyond then back to the low 90s, recent rises in fuel prices, falls in commodity prices, recession or slow / slowing growth in our trading partners and so forth.
Carbon pricing is one factor in a vast complex mix.
[1651
confessions
silentmajority:
I’m in WA but don’t get what you’re saying about the banner. To me it looks the same way it did yesterday, last week, a month ago.]
I’ve seen a Lib banner here too – maybe Crikey has been hacked by the hacks.
steve 777
i know that is usual response, but i thought to ask … actually i oppose this type of quick change, for political as well as any other reason – if it is was to be a tax it should have worked up over several years – i am not opposed to a tex, or ets, but have been opposed the particular tax prompted if it was by the greens. it certainly back fired politically. trouble is CT discourse was seized and muddied by abbott – yes he did wedge labor on that one, although labor was stupid enough to agree to it in the first place.
why did greens abolish debt limit? always seemed counter intuitive for them to do such a thing
1668
Steve777
The carbon price created incentives for generators to get out of fossil fuels. The general price rises we’ve seen for energy create incentives for generators to stay in carbon fuels and in conventional rather than diffused supply networks. Abolishing the carbon tax is lose/lose.
[1671
geoffrey
why did greens abolish debt limit? always seemed counter intuitive for them to do such a thing]
the debt limit was a useless gimmick put up by Rudd….glad its gone
briefly:
Appreciate your thoughts on the economy. I think it goes without saying that I have zero confidence that the coalition have any ideas about how to blunt any shocks to the wider community.
The fixed price period of the carbon price was not supposed to ‘start high’ – the price chosen was a compromise amount that was picked to roughly match up with what the projected floating price of carbon would be. Of course it was wrong – it was always going to be wrong in some way – it just turned out to be significantly wrong because the European carbon price crashed due to (among other things) the European economies being hit much harder coming out of the GFC than anyone predicted.
In a sensible world the 3 year fixed price period would be seen as unimportant – it’s a transition mechanism, it’s the long term that matters – but, of course, in the febrile silly world of the MSM and Australian politics it was all blown out of proportion as some massive policy failure by the ALP.
Whatever.
The ad i see is for a University, maybe the ad tracker is suggesting my post are unintelligent and education is required.
This is unprecedented
[Lawyers for Victoria Police have moved to impose a blanket ban on all Australian media organisations, including The Age, from identifying an alleged police informer following a Supreme Court injunction against the Herald Sun last night.
The Victorian Government Solicitor’s Office has written to Fairfax Media on behalf of Chief Police Commissioner Ken Lay regarding the Herald Sun article about the lawyer, referred to only as “Lawyer X”.]
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-police-calls-for-media-ban-on-identifying-lawyer-x-20140402-35xxb.html
[However, the removal of the legal advice provisions for asylum seekers who make it here, is insignificant in comparison with dumping them in Malaysia]
Where they’d be working and living freely in the community.
Yet in Australia we’ve stripped away one of those precious rights you would’ve been happy to champion had it been a Labor govt stripping that right away.
[The boats have stopped under this government, and now you call them extremists.]
I said extremist legislation. And under your old ruse pre Sept 2013 of feigning indignation at what the then govt did on AS you’d be pitching the mother of all fits at what Morrison and ABbott have done since coming into office.
@Victoria/1677
Censorship!
the debt limit was a useless gimmick put up by Rudd….glad its gone
I agree. Had it stayed we’d probably have ended up having annual debt crises like the US – every year would be 1975, at least when the Opposition is leading in the polls.
Btw for anyone who followed the gangland war here in melbourne would not have any trouble figuring out who lawyer x is
[1674
confessions
briefly:
Appreciate your thoughts on the economy. I think it goes without saying that I have zero confidence that the coalition have any ideas about how to blunt any shocks to the wider community.]
The LNP do not understand the economy. They are political creatures, not economic ones, and are never happier than when attacking unions, chopping the public sector, sowing division and spreading their own particular misery.
Confessions
A pic
https://twitter.com/silentmajority2/status/451340440193605632
zoidlord
Will be imteresting to see where this all goes
Must be region specific
To all who are seeing targeted advertising on Crikey, I suggest you install “Do Not Track Me” or some other plugin that prevents media companies tracking your browsing habits. If you don’t, they very soon know things about you that you would be too embarrassed to tell your friends or family!
My beef with Crikey is the stupid ads at the bottom of the page – they never change, so presumably they are sponsors and not random advertising – but they take often minutes to load, from servers that are obviously seriously overloaded – and they often fail to load correctly anyway, spewing gibberish out onto the page.
For a supposedly canny social media company, Crikey sure seems to knows sh*t about professional web presentation.
silentmajority:
I use adblock. Always have, regardless of the browser. Never bothered with troublesome adverts.
@Victoria/1684
Must be pretty bad for liberal party room in Victoria if they are going this far.
To help lower income earners the solution needs to revolve around lifting their incomes not reducing other peoples incomes.
We should be aspiring to increase the number of rich people. as Paul Keating pointed out in his interview series with the ABC that the workers are now the owners of capital thanks to super.
First Liberal advert I’ve seen for the Senate re-election. Features Cash, Johnston and a woman I’ve never seen before. Presumably their No. 3 on the ticket.
@mb/1689
That is fine, if have a job for a long period of time with minimal time in Centerlink.
It does not fix the other half of the problem.
zoidlord
Victoria niw has the highest unemployment rate for 12 years, and higher than NSW and QLD.
Things are not going so well
silentmajority@1683
Is that Troy Buswell passed out under the tree in the background?
Zoidy which is why we need an economic policy not a dames and knights policy.
I’m trying to be charitable and assume you mean increase the wealth of all.
Jackol
Yes that is another way of putting it.
[To help lower income earners the solution needs to revolve around lifting their incomes not reducing other peoples incomes.]
I agree with the second bit, but we could achieve much the same thing by reducing everyones’ living costs.
Mex, after our discussion the other day, you might be able to guess where I going with this…
[as Paul Keating pointed out in his interview series with the ABC that the workers are now the owners of capital thanks to super.]
But who holds the loans for the biggest consumption good purchase most people make in their lives – the one good the vast majority cannot pay without resorting to finance?
Hint: It’s not the workers or the capitalist.
Briefly, you were saying earlier that:
[The issue is income! Household incomes have been more or less static for some time and this is not going to improve. ]
If you put house prices into the wage deflator calculation, real wages have actually been falling.
@MB/1694
That’s why I been saying that this gov has done nothing for 6 months, and the budget will be kicking people on Centerlink are the ones who need it the most:
a) A job.
b) The money in-between jobs, for whenever the Government feels like they actually get their arses together on a decent policy and not a Slave Army that has no rights.
They are and will target those on DSP.
Kevin Andrews complained about 20% growth over a decade (which btw, is not even close to 50%), with one of the smallest costs to the government in tune of $15 billion per year compared to other groups (age pension e.g.).
I know I have been more critical of the LNP but, but this is what happens when you vote them in.
For me it’s ‘no suprise’ when they do this crap.
LU
Yes i do (LT), its true about the need to reduce the cost of living but no one seems able to come up with a solution.
Now the top of my page is now showing a pet food ad. I like cats and dogs but own neither.
Re carbon pricing, the plan would have been to transition to an ETS in a few months at about one quarter the price initially – the cost to the economy would have been not much less than that of Direct Inaction and far less than a cost of a Direct Action plan that might have a chance of working.
So what’s the plan? Let her rip, business as usual and see what happens? Maybe Abbott’s business mates think they can make big bucks out of geo-engineering once warming can no longer be denied. Or is it to spend billions on a plan that won’t work to fix a problem the PM and most of his party deny exists in the hope that the punters will assume everything’s OK and concentrate on boats and pre-election tax cuts.
Actually, I think the plan is that, because the ecosystem won’t collapse before the next election or the one after that, there’s no need to worry about it now. If it does collapse, blame Unions, greenies, Labor, ‘elites’ or boat people.