Galaxy: 50-50 (plus quarterly Newspoll breakdowns)

The first Galaxy poll since the federal election finds nothing in it, while Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns suggest the swing is weakest in the state where voters head to the polls on Saturday.

The Daily Telegraph has results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention showing the two major parties tied on two-party preferred, and while the accompanying graphic is spoiled by a production error, it’s clear enough the primary vote results are 43% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. It also finds 56% opposed to cuts in welfare spending against only 34% in support. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 998. The Australian also brings Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates of voting intention broken down by state, gender, age cohorts and capitals-versus-regionals, which have Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 54-46 in South Australia, and trailing 51-49 in Queensland and 54-46 in Western Australia.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): Channel Seven reports the monthly ReachTEL result has Labor leading 52-48 – primary votes will have to wait until the morning. The Seven report also relates that 26% of respondents support the Prime Minister’s decision on imperial titles with 45% opposed, and that only 19% expect to be better off financially over the next year compared with 43% who expect to be worse off, respectively down five and up four on three months ago. More on this poll either this evening or tomorrow.

UPDATE (Essential Research): A considerable move to Labor on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition moving from 51-49 ahead to 51-49 behind. There are also two-point shifts on the primary vote, Labor up to 39% and the Coalition down to 42%, with the Greens steady on 9% and Palmer United down one to 3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,028 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 (plus quarterly Newspoll breakdowns)”

Comments Page 33 of 41
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  3. [confessions
    Posted Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 10:01 pm | PERMALINK
    And Bandt. There is something about Bandt that totally rubs me the wrong way.]

    His lack of selling out?

  4. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 10:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Wages should be capped.]

    North Korea calls…..best of luck! :devil:

  5. [His lack of selling out?]

    No, that’s not it. It’s more his immaturity and trying to be that representation of Greens inner city voter that is so absolutely cliched.

    Actually, in a way he is selling out. I’d have more respect for him if I felt he was genuine. I don’t get genuine when I look at Bandt. Same with SHY.

  6. Re Buswell, Confessions, the local Libs are talking on TV as if what is happening to Buswell was well, kind of bad luck.

    They are also talking as though all that has happened is just a minor detour on his way back into Parliament and Harry Phillips kind of said that his return to the Ministry “might be a way off”.

    It is astounding that (a) he is still seen as fit to be in parliament by his Lib friends and (b) his cheer squad seem to anticipate a return to higher things – at some point down the track.

    In his electorate they still love his – just a misunderstood naughty boy – because they would vote for anybody who is not Labor down there.

    It always amuses me the good burghers of country towns consider themselves as good solid citizens who “do the right thing” but when it suits them, they can close both eyes when it comes to “their boy” breaking the law and trying to get away with it.

    Pity his CoS had to fall on her sword – but I suppose somebody had to take the rap for Troy as it is trying hard to get out of any serious trouble.

    Meanwhile Barnett and the rest of the Liberal party are in three monkey mode and “hoping Troy will get better” and do not wish to ‘talk about him’ while there are court issues on hand.

    A cover up there appears to be, but McGowan, though hammering away, does not seem to been scoring at all on this matter.

    What a joke.

  7. I like the swiss idea of capping the ratio between the top earner in a company with the bottom earner. That way, you are free to pay anyone what you like, as long as everyone else earns a comparitive amount.

    Something I’d definitely like to see brought into Queensland law, anyway, I’d love to see Newman explaining to his peers that they had to all take pay cuts to bring themselves in line with their office worker’s and janitors.

  8. Tricot:

    I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again. I can’t for the life of me understand why Buswell keeps getting so many lifelines from his party.

    It’s not like Vasse would turn Labor or Nat if Buswell weren’t the Liberal candidate, so I can’t understand why he hasn’t been cut loose.

    The only reason I can fathom is because there really is no credible succession plan from the Emperor. Troy’s the boy so to speak.

    Yech!

  10. Bracket creep was one the reasons Howard had so much revenue.

    All that raving about what great bloke he was with all those handouts…all he was doing was giving back a small portion of what he had over taxed

  12. [I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again. I can’t for the life of me understand why Buswell keeps getting so many lifelines from his party.
    ]

    Desperation they are devoid not only of talent but of competence.

  13. [confessions
    Posted Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 10:01 pm | PERMALINK
    And Bandt. There is something about Bandt that totally rubs me the wrong way.

    His lack of selling out?]
    Actually he sold out a lot of marriage equality groups when he told them that he would support the original private members’ bill but then went ahead and moved the Greens’ Senate bill anyway.

  14. briefly:

    How do you see Australia’s economy playing out over the next year or two? I note from polling that people perceive they’ll be worse off financially into the future, and I hope that isn’t the case in reality.

  15. Fess

    I’m not greatly impressed by SH-Y or Milne for that matter. They are very probably worthy people but I find them fairly bland and robotic.

    Adam Bandt on the other hand and Lee Rhiannon are genuinely warm and engaging as well as passionate. Many from the right of the spectrum feel threatened by them — they are unapologetically left of centre, by contrast with the more ‘mainstream’ Ludlum, Milne and SH-Y., who are a lot more ambiguous in public about their paradigm.

    Really though, the Murdoch media said openly a long time ago that it meant to destroy our party and so they have tried to demonise us all – both those of us with somewhat more conservative impulses and those of more left of centre predisposition.

    I may not be all that impressed with Milne or SH-Y but they are honest servants of our party which is in turn the most worthy of all the parties in parliament by a long margin. That suffices for me.

  16. No time today to look at much on Teev. And just an aside.

    But a takeout from Sky, don’t even know the name of the woman interviewing or whom she was. But she asked if it was fair that the Government should be criticized when it was only into its first six months.

    I well remember her face if not her name and that she and her travellers took every opportunity to slam Labor.

  17. [I may not be all that impressed with Milne or SH-Y but they are honest servants of our party which is in turn the most worthy of all the parties in parliament by a long margin. That suffices for me.]
    Name one bill originated by the Greens that has passed the parliament.

  18. Chimes in nicely with Fran’s comment.

    ‘Really though, the Murdoch media said openly a long time ago that it meant to destroy our party and so they have tried to demonise us all – both those of us with somewhat more conservative impulses and those of more left of centre predisposition’.

  20. re BANDT !600
    ————
    He is an outstanding MP for Melb
    He is a tireless worker in the seat,…and is much in line with the usual Melb
    Left-liberal politics of central Melb…which has a unique political essence….being more intellectual and studied than anywhere else in OZ …and Bandt gets all that right…to the extent that at the last election he got almost half the Libs prefs…who ignored the Lib HTV card..so I think he’s there for while

  21. [Adam Bandt on the other hand and Lee Rhiannon are genuinely warm and engaging as well as passionate.]

    They are equally as disengaging and repulsive as SHY to me.

    [they are unapologetically left of centre, by contrast with the more ‘mainstream’ Ludlum, Milne and SH-Y., who are a lot more ambiguous in public about their paradigm.]

    I’ve never perceived Bandt as “unapologetically left of centre”, just another hack MP who seems to know which side of the bread cops the butter. Nor do I regard SHY as mainstream as it happens.

  23. GOSH….you mean those horrible, nasty, evil, Liberal voters helped Bandt get in and advance progressive policies.

    Could the meme that Liberal voters are all dumb, right-wing, people-hating bogans be wRONg?

    Nah…..must be something else. 🙂

  26. zoidlord:

    Didn’t you say that you were on a disability pension?

    I think it is a little rich for someone dependent on taxpayers to tell taxpayers how much they are allowed to earn…..thats all.

  30. silentmajority

    Posted Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    There’s. A. Liberal. Party. Banner. At. The. Top. Of. The. Page…

    Hawke and Keating and Rudd and Gillard

    Some Liberal banner!!!

  32. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 10:54 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/1611

    So in other words, 180k pay no tax at all.

    Right pull the other one.]

    Huh?

    You make absolutely no sense whatsoever.

  33. @Mod Lib/1626

    You have NFI idea about Disabled people do you, and just rather make personal remarks, that I find repulsive, which is nothing new from liberals of course.

  34. [Nah…..must be something else.]

    Perhaps they’re all sellouts like today’s moderate Liberals.

    Bitch and moan when Labor is in govt, but stay silently locked and loaded behind an extremist Liberal govt, even when it’s legislating against the interests you swore only as recently as last year, were soooo frickin’ important to you.

  36. Thanks Abbott, you b’tard.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-02/perinatal-depression-economic-cost-mental-illness/5362966
    [Federal funding of mental health services in review

    The Tweddle Clinic assesses 1,000 parents for perinatal mental illness each year and, crucially, links them to treatment.

    That screening service along with many others is in jeopardy.

    Until June last year, state and federal governments funded the National Perinatal Depression Initiative.

    The $85 million, five-year program helped screen tens of thousands of new mums and dads for depression and anxiety, and fund treatment and education for medical professionals.

    However, wrangling between the states and the Commonwealth over a new round of funding has cast doubt over the program.

    Now they are waiting for the results of a review into federal funding of mental health services to learn whether the initiative will continue.

    “It’s a crying shame that the momentum that we had harnessed over five years is slowly dwindling away,” said Nicole Highet, the executive director of the Centre of Perinatal Excellence.

    ]

  37. Bandt did well amongst the Lib and got half their Prefs because he was seen..do I have to say it again…that he was a tireless local MP…taking up many issues ignored for years by Labor MPs who topok a safe seat for granted

    The Greens have done well right across central Melbourne in both state and Fed. seats in recent years..and will do so in the coming state elections,with a good chance of the Balance in the Upper House

    I suspect they would be better to have Bandt as Leader or even Ludlam…rather than Milne or SHY…I really suspect that for some voters they would rathert not have womenm leaders

  38. [confessions
    Bitch and moan when Labor is in govt, but stay silently locked and loaded behind an extremist Liberal govt,]

    extremist? They haven’t done anything but announce the start of the age of Titlement.

    [ even when it’s legislating against the interests you swore only as recently as last year, were soooo frickin’ important to you.]

    What legislation is that?

  39. [deblonay
    …I really suspect that for some voters they would rathert not have women leaders]

    You think Greens voters wouldn’t vote for a woman?

    Hmmm……

  42. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 10:58 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/1632

    No you do not make sense, when it comes to taxes and wages.]

    Either you are not following the logic of the discussion, or you are incoherent.

    I am not sure which it is, but it must be one of those options.

  45. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 11:01 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/1638

    It was suppose to be end of the Age of Entitlement?

    Since when it was the start of something?]

    OK, that settles it, it is just that you are not capable of following. Fair enough.

    Can I suggest you stop trying to make smart retorts to my posts when it is clear that you are not actually understanding them.

    Perhaps stick to your weight division, yeah?

  46. Mod Lib claiming that I am making smart retorts, when it was you at 1604.

    Now, stop patronizing me, thinking that you can pick on someone that is disabled.

    And secondly, stop trying to be the victim.

  48. Oh and, your smart retort at the end there, “Perhaps stick to your weight division, yeah?”

    Now you are picking on larger people.

  49. Good grief. Lateline are setting up Palmer to debate Garnaut on climate change.

    WTF is the point of that?

    Sheesh. ABC tabloid nonsense.

  50. Yes, but my #1604 WAS smart, whereas, what you think is a smart retort, is actually just highlighting the fact that you cannot understand what is actually being discussed (see the “Age of entitlement” vs. “Age of Titlement”* confusion)

    * it was a play on words, as Hockey said the age of entitlement was over, and Abbott has now re-introduced Dames and Sirs….ie titles, hence “Age of Titlement”.

    Quite clever, eh?

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