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| Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the east and Malvern to the south. Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Kate Ellis. In keeping with statewide trends, the seat moved solidly to Labor in 2007 (by 7.2%), recorded little change in 2010 (a 0.8% Liberal swing), and swung to the Liberals in 2013 (reducing the margin from 7.5% to 3.6%).
Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and its attendant “Catholic Right” faction, and is close to its powerful state figurehead, outgoing Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection for Adelaide at the age of 27 in 2004, following the late withdrawal of Tim Stanley, an industrial lawyer and later Supreme Court justice. Her path was smoothed by a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).
Ellis was promoted to the outer ministry at the age of 30 following the 2007 election victory, beating Paul Keating’s record as Labor’s youngest ever minister. Following the 2010 election she was reassigned from her portfolios of youth and sport to employment participation, childcare and the status of women, exchanging the latter for early childhood and youth when Kevin Rudd resumed the leadership in June 2013. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis was a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, making headlines shortly before Rudd’s February 2012 challenge by claiming Rudd had asked her and other SDA figures how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”. Following the 2013 election defeat she received a substantial promotion to shadow cabinet in the education portfolio.
confessions
Ah yes 2005 . Forgot about that. Excellent point.
Baggins
“good” in what sense?
[The non aligned, objective, rational, I-base-my-vote-on my judgements-not-on-party -allegiance Mod Lib]
I’ll believe that when he stops defending the indefensible – aka fraudband.
So Abbott + unemployment was political poison for SA Liberals and their country mates.
Shame so many of the Hillbillys live in well, Hillbillyville for the conservatives in SA.
One of the few occasions where the large number of country voters were not able to wag the city dog.
Unfortunately for Labor it is getting to the point where, in many country areas, they could not buy a vote let alone win one.
It will be tough going in SA for Labor but as BB has noted, this is probably Liberal high water mark. Things not looking too promising the conservatives in Victoria, the LNP will lose seats in Queensland (if not government) and it is all down hill from here for the conservatives.
Bit of a shame the the conservatives did not win in SA as then they would really have nobody to blame for what goes wrong than their side of politics.
As evidence of this all we get from the Liberals is that “Labor should just get out of the way” and this mind you from a leader who gave us three word, negative slogans on just about everything Labor did in office.
cud
On a tech site either Gawker or Gizmodo Turnbull told a woman to get good broad band to move. That is go where Labor has already installed it.
“@political_alert: Leader of the Opposition @billshortenmp is in Perth today to launch the Western Australian Labor Senate Campaign, 9:20am WA time #auspol”
[3 . 2 . 1 . . . SA Liberal Party implosion!]
Huh? I don’t remember them imploding in Tassie or Federally last time there was a stale Labor government jumping in bed with minor parties, in fact quite the opposite.
Brock looks set for getting a force retirement in 4 Years and I think this was the best result for the Liberals in the end.
Sinodinos is corrputy, so which Union does he belong to or an Official at?
According to the Liberal ‘bible’ only unions and there officials are corrupt.
AA – I’d stick a few more “allegedly”s in that kind of post if I were you.
Needless to say that if China was moving a large quantity of purchased gold it wouldn’t use a commercial airliner. It would one of its own planes or ships. It buys huge quantities of gold on a regular basis.
The plane theft theory though matching the data best suffers from lack of motive.
Thank you SA since the announcement ML & ESJ seem to have disappeared to “lick their wounds”? 😀 On that lovely note off to take daughter and grandson to the plane to go back to Sydney
So Bronny and Tony are “close” (shudder). PvO
[I wrote a column in late November last year lamenting Bishop’s poor performance after just two weeks in the chair. My fear was that she wasn’t likely to improve.
In fact, she has got worse. Bishop throws Labor MPs out of the chamber with gay abandon. She regularly shuts down points of order before even hearing them.
She enters the partisan debate, throwing quips and smirks into the equation in a way that should be beneath the Speaker. And she rarely if ever rules against the government on anything.
Before Bishop took up the position a number of Liberal MPs told me they thought it was a mistake to give it to her, because she’d make herself the story and present a poor facade for the Abbott government.
But there was little MPs could do about her appointment: Tony Abbott wanted to dump her from the ministry and offering Bishop the Speakership was the only alternative he’d accept (the pair are close). Never mind that tradition dictated that MPs, free of a prime ministerial directive, are supposed to choose the Speaker.
If government MPs want parliament to be taken seriously, they (or Abbott) should have a word to Bishop.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/lady-justice-wears-a-blindfold-not-an-eyepatch/story-fni0cwl5-1226860901473
mari
Go to this site and “follow” them home 🙂
http://www.flightradar24.com/#-38.23,148.05/6?&_suid=139553628583001362875214270508
A couple of weeks ago, I posted that ModLib had fallen off the contempt list because she was prepared to change her mind when the facts proved her wrong.
Alas, now I find that ML is back to running the exact same lines she was last time, and relying on the old figures which (she agreed) painted a different picture to the updated ones (and some of which don’t support her hypothesis).
So ML is now deliberately lying, and knows she’s deliberately lying, and using outdated information in full awareness of the fact that it’s outdated information.
So I’m back to contempt.
Pity.
Your kind of getting into stalkerish territory always talking about me Mari.
Poroti 213
How brilliant, but by the time I get home I may just see them landing in Sydney 😀 love the site
Some years ago, professional golfer Payne Stewart and entourage boarded a private jet which crashed with all lost. It was revealed subsequently, that leaking carbon monoxide suffocated all and the plane, being on auto pilot flew until it ran out of fues and then crashed.
I know nothing about airliners. However, I’m wondering whether a similar scenario may have occurred regarding this missing airplane.
Your ponderings and musings always amaze GG.
24 just showed Tony Abbott holding up a T Shirt
[Strong men respect women]
Must mean Abbott is weak as he does not respect women enough to be equals in cabinet.
ESJ,
Your pandering and mushiness is always reliable.
ML
[That might change with the next update, lets see.]
You know perfectly well the ‘next update’ exists, so it’s interesting that you didn’t provide the link to it —
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22library%2Fprspub%2F752676%22
Interestingly, too, that you have chosen to ignore some economic indicators at the expense of others, and ignored the fact that even the ones you’ve chosen show the last Labor government significantly outperforming Howard.
For example _–
[At an average over the period of 5.1 per cent, the unemployment rate was lowest under the Rudd/Gillard Government..]
[The rate of inflation has fallen from an annual average of 9.9 per cent under the Fraser Government to 2.5 per cent under the Howard Government and to 2.4 per cent under the Rudd/Gillard Government… ]
[…Commonwealth government net debt was highest at an average of 10.3 per cent of GDP during the Hawke/Keating period, and lowest during the Rudd/Gillard Government at 2.4 per cent of GDP.
Average Commonwealth tax receipts as a percentage of GDP grew steadily from the Fraser to Howard Governments but have fallen under the Rudd/Gillard Government. ]
What the combined percentages over time do tend to show, however, is that Labor’s performance as economic managers has improved – to the point where, on most indicators, the Rudd/Gillard government has narrowed the gap significantly on most of the areas ModLib chose to concentrate on.
Looking at the trend (as good PBers do) it’s obvious that the Liberals are in decline when it comes to economic management. They (may) have been good in the past, but to argue that they’re good economic managers now because they were thirty or forty years ago is obviously only someone driven by a desperate attempt to polish turds would even attempt to do.
[
[There is something a bit odd about the way he presents himself. I assumed I took an instant dislike to him because he’s a Lib, but I suspect Marshall probably needs to get some coaching on how to not present himself as a snake oil salesman if he hopes for a future as a political leader.]
As I predicted on the day before the SA election: Marshall will rue the day he blurted out thatwe should vote Labor.
It was just the kind of comment the media – under the Leigh Sales “Law Of Gaffes” – would latch onto.
Who knows how many voters decided that, on balance, on the day, he was a bit of a joke.
There must have been only a few hundred votes statewide that were between a Liberal government and a return of Labor.
I really do wonder how many of those votes stayed with Labor over the way the media mocked Marshall over his comment.
It could well have decided the election.
In Reality TV world, forgetting your lines, no matter how good a performer you are otherwise, is fatal.
We live in shallow times.
@ASRC1: #Insiders there is no such thing as an “economic #refugee” & stop using the term “genuine refugee”. Either a refugee or your not. #auspol
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/22/climate-change-deniers-have-won-global-warming
Argument here: There is no scientific debate any longer. Just a political debate over whether we should do anything. One we’re losing.
Author is right on the basics, but its important to note they’re not winning because of the power of their arguments or advocates (who are mostly idiots, though occasionally clever whores for vested interests who know better). Its mostly because they have inertia on their side, and powerful backers.
But its a tad too pessimistic: one thing they no longer have is the market behind them. Its actually NOT cheaper to use fossil fuels – already the units cost of renewables is generally lower – its the one-off costs of coverting plant that provide obstacles.
Which is a big advantage for the renewables side. Though again, one should not underestimate the power of vested interests to insist that everyone pay more than they should be. Look at the history of privatisation for example. Mostly its been a rip off for consumers, but it continues apace.
And check this out. Wow.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/30198977/ns/technology_and_science-space/t/pge-makes-deal-space-solar-power/#.UykvgvldXNm
“@BarnsGreg: #auspol Abbott government to abolish the Independent Monitor of national security laws. ASIO and AFP can now act without oversight.”
@guytaur/226
Abbott can now go after whoever they want.
No scrunity.
Marshall Presser now
Whine city
This is not true.
I’m not a fan of what the Abbott government are doing, but they aren’t abolishing oversight of the spooks.
The role they are abolishing is the guy who looks at the laws in place and decides if they continue to be justifiable in terms of the powers given to the agencies and the mechanisms to keep them accountable.
Related, but different.
Between ASIO, AFP warrentless, TPP Agreement where Multinationals can sue Governments.
This is all Anti-Consumer, Anti-Voter.
@Jackol/229
At what point do you “can now act without oversight”, this leads to corruption in the police force.
Zoidlord – as I said, the Abbott government are acting to remove the guy who reviews the legislation, not the actual oversight that is already in place.
Attack them for what they are actually doing, not what you imagine they are doing.
And Marshall executes a perfect Abbott walkaway from this presser.
@Jackol/232
I am, your missing the point.
[Malcolm Farr @farrm51 6m
Rebels m/c chap kindly offered advice as I struggled to start bike at servo. He was peeing against servo wall at the time but point remains ]
Here’s what Keane in Crikey had to say about this in the context of the “bonfire of red tape”:
http://www.crikey.com.au/?p=429752
Power prices in Germany have been going down with the advent of renewables.
Abbott and his cronies are more interested in seeing the bank accounts of their supporters going up than in the environment or the cost.
How many have got the $550 Abbott promised before last Christmas?
Once you start removing the people who scrutinise the bills, there goes scrutiny, less citizens safety.
But your Crikey link is just another “Look over there” tactic.
BK@233
Didn’t want anyone to see him cry. 👿
lizzie
[Malcolm Farr @farrm51 6m
Rebels m/c chap kindly offered advice as I struggled to start bike at servo. He was peeing against servo wall at the time but point remains]
Love it! This is Australia!
MTBW
[Love it! This is Australia!]
As long as you’re not standing in it!
Most legislation doesn’t get a person specifically assigned to scrutinize it.
National Security related legislation did because it is a fraught area where the government of the day is all too inclined to overstep the mark.
I agree that it is a backward step to remove the body charged with reviewing National Security legislation. I also think there is an argument that whatever role this body has/had it was ineffective because the government of the day (eg the previous ALP government) could just brush off the recommendations of this body without a second thought.
However, the original comment was that by abolishing this legislative review function that the various agencies could now operate without oversight, and that is simply not true. The existing oversight mechanisms will still operate.
As I said, criticize the government for the bad stuff it is actually doing; making stuff up is not helpful to anyone’s argument.
MTBW@240
Hmmmm it doesn’t impress me.
I cringe at the exultation of the ‘larrikin’ in any form. People should behave in a civilised manner at all times. That doesn’t preclude having fun.
Hmmmm what are the ” policy initiatives” that Jai is going to announce as part of this deal ?
The next fun part will be the new cabinet, talent like Mr Gee will have to be accommodated as well !
[“Power prices in Germany have been going down with the advent of renewables.
Abbott and his cronies are more interested in seeing the bank accounts of their supporters going up than in the environment or the cost.”]
When the facts don’t suit, create your own
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-03/german-power-costs-seen-dropping-for-fourth-year-energy.html
Power prices in Germany, Europe’s biggest electricity market, probably will weaken for a record fourth consecutive year as utilities add the most coal-fired capacity in more than a decade.
The benchmark year-ahead electricity contract will average about 6 percent less in 2014 than in 2013, according to the median of nine analyst and trader estimates compiled by Bloomberg News. Expanding generating capacity will provide 17 percent more supply than peak demand, says Bryan Garnier & Co., an investment bank in Paris.
Wholesale power prices in Europe’s biggest economy plunged 32 percent since 2010 amid record wind and solar output and the weakest demand in four years. The cheapest coal since 2009 is spurring utilities to keep building plants burning the fuel. EON SE (EOAN) and RWE AG (RWE), the largest generators, will report lower profit this year, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
CTar1
Me too!
bemused
You need to loosen up a bit! 😡
@Jackol/242
This has nothing to do with making stuff up.
bemused
Comes from toilets being locked. Unseemly would have been doing it on the bowser
MTBW@246
Nothing amusing about public urination.
What next? Public defecation?
Nope, it is not next, it happens already and isn’t the least bit funny.
guytaur@248
So he was too lazy to ask for the key?
Says it all.