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| Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the east and Malvern to the south. Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Kate Ellis. In keeping with statewide trends, the seat moved solidly to Labor in 2007 (by 7.2%), recorded little change in 2010 (a 0.8% Liberal swing), and swung to the Liberals in 2013 (reducing the margin from 7.5% to 3.6%).
Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and its attendant “Catholic Right” faction, and is close to its powerful state figurehead, outgoing Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection for Adelaide at the age of 27 in 2004, following the late withdrawal of Tim Stanley, an industrial lawyer and later Supreme Court justice. Her path was smoothed by a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).
Ellis was promoted to the outer ministry at the age of 30 following the 2007 election victory, beating Paul Keating’s record as Labor’s youngest ever minister. Following the 2010 election she was reassigned from her portfolios of youth and sport to employment participation, childcare and the status of women, exchanging the latter for early childhood and youth when Kevin Rudd resumed the leadership in June 2013. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis was a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, making headlines shortly before Rudd’s February 2012 challenge by claiming Rudd had asked her and other SDA figures how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”. Following the 2013 election defeat she received a substantial promotion to shadow cabinet in the education portfolio.
Everything likes to take into account economic data before the floating of the dollar?
The economic prosperity that we enjoy today is all due to the Hawke/Keating reforms of 1983 to 1996.
Howard presided over a mining boom between 1996 and 2007.
The is only 1 real indicator and they have already marked Abbott as a huge fail, an indicator that talks with its pockets.
[The economic prosperity that we enjoy today is all due to the Hawke/Keating reforms of 1983 to 1996.
Howard presided over a mining boom between 1996 and 2007.]
Give Howard his due he added some gun control to the economy and bolted on a GST to make the tax system less fair.
“@TomRichardson: BREAKING: premier arrives WITH BROCK”
After reducing the wages of aged and child care workers, and now cleaners, Abbott has put the icing on the cake by ripping money from the pockets of orphans.
Bumblefuk Idaho council of boonies s.a has determined the health budget for the state must be changed. Jai will be more fun to watch then the Gillardine.
“@DanWillsTiser: Brock: “I have chosen to support Labor to form minority government”.”
24 Pathetic. on announcement.
ABCNews24 using Turnbull’s fraudband for the presser
[ABCNews24 using Turnbull’s fraudband for the presser]
If people wanted news coverage they’d move to somewhere with news coverage. Just like the NBN you want it, move to it.
Turnbull is going to be this governments biggest economic vandal, and from a noneconomic portfolio with the fools Hockey and Corman doing a better job than him. What a total tosser.
How I love the burnt feathers smell of poor losers in the morning.
How can a government be a “minority government”? Surely it either has the numbers or it doesn’t. No one says “I have decided to lead a majority government”.
WWP
Yes agreed.
Howard introduced a tax system that makes it that the lower income you earn, the higher percentage of tax you pay.
That’s a mathematical and economic fact.
The lower your income, the higher % of tax you pay with a GST.
That’s why the wealthy love the GST so much. I find it hilarious that most Greens actually who consider themselves intelligent, bought it.
Well, I’ve always told them, when it comes to this “$” leave it to the experts 😆
“@tim_chr: .@nickharmsen says Geoff Brock will be the Minister for Local Government and Regional Development in a reelected Labor government. #savotes”
WWP @ 159
Agree.
Give Howard his due he added some gun control to the economy and bolted on a GST to make the tax system less fair.
he also gave us a very large and on-going level of middle income welfare payments. Baby bonus for one.
Well poroti I think people are entitled to differences of opinion on broadband, it doesn’t necessarily make them sore losers if they supported the conroy “envelope” vision.
So what now for Marshall I wonder. Will he hang around as LOTO or will he stand down for someone else.
ESJ,
My nephew is a trainee clown who makes an absolute fortune touring the various markets on weekends. He has many tricks, one of which is to juggle a turned on chain saw, a live chicken and an egg. Another is to make coloured balls appear and disappear.
Whenever I see his performance I’m reminded of your good self. A clown performing, a chicken not knowing it’s fate and a person, given your recent change of personality, who lost his balls through overhandling.
lizzie:
Because no one party has a majority in its own right.
confessions
It is more about the Liberal wallys using it as a pejorative and boogey man with which to scare the horses. NZ has had 18 of the last 18 years with those dreaded “minority” governments without too much going down the gurgler.
So no change to GST. Does this mean the one stop shop on the environment is out too? Or can that go ahead without Coag?
confessions
The very expression, accepted by Brock, allows all that stupid Coalition nonsense to start up again.
Thanks poroti.
Brock’s decision comes as no surprise to me. He has made the only choice that could see a government formed.
Is it only me or do others find something a bit odd about Steven Marshall? He just doesn’t seem genuine to me with what appears to be a fixed forced smile at all times. The sort of blood chilling smile a real estate salesman has.
poroti:
Yes, quite. I noted the day after election night that the Murdoch press in particular was already trying to scare the horses with FUD about the SA hung parliament.
[Well poroti I think people are entitled to differences of opinion on broadband, it doesn’t necessarily make them sore losers if they supported the conroy “envelope” vision.]
Differences of opinion on broadband? LoL.
lizzie:
It had already started up again anyway.
Well… scratch another Pundits Prediction.
Tory Whatsername typified the PRess Gallery’s attitude this morning on Insiders when she got all plonking about a Labor win in SA, saying, “It was supposed to be a Liberal landslide.”
They build up a meme, a story, then when it doesn’t come about, the government becomes illegitimate.
Happened to Gillard. Will probably happen to Wetherill.
[Happened to Gillard. Will probably happen to Wetherill.]
Yeah Australia has never seen a biggest poor loser than Abbott he was a disgrace.
Lizzie
[How can a government be a “minority government”? Surely it either has the numbers or it doesn’t. No one says “I have decided to lead a majority government”.]
Precisely why the term “minority government” is useful. Technically, the government is the executive or cabinet, and while it may be tolerated by the majority of the parliament, it is only supported by a minority of the MPs in the lower house.
The wrinkle is that if both sides had equal numbers and an Indy agreed to be speaker the resultant executive would still be a minority government. We have no term for a tied government.
Looks like we have seen the high tide of Liberalism under Abbott. Expect the wreckage to be revealed as the waters go out.
@EDJ/166
This so called “vision” from Coalition Party is the reason why we have crap broadband in the first place.
WWP,
The Brack’s Labor Government negotiated a full term from a minority position in 1999. Similarly, Carr and Wran managed to survive and thrive with a one seat majority.
The Labor Feds and the current Libs in Victoria have one thing in common. A Governing minority Party at war with themselves for most of the term.
Basically, if Labor in SA stays united, they’ll be OK.
Taxation principles of the following parties (the truth):
The Liberals – User pays for everything, from health and education to just about possibly everything else in a society.
Labor – Like coy tax, the higher you earn in real terms, the more tax that is paid (I would like to think anyway).
Greens – Wealth equalisation, everybody including refugees, should have the same amount of money.
Take your pick of the above?
*catch u later, oh go Titans
confessions
The dumbest comment I keep seeing is about people not voting for a hung parliament . Buggered if I’ve ever been able to find that option on my ballot paper.
[This so called “vision” from Coalition Party is the reason why we have crap broadband in the first place.]
Yes the liberals wrecked the sector when they sold Telstra in the stupidest possible way.
There is also differences of opinions on having paved roads and airports, intelligent sensible people know they are infrastructure essential to a modern economy, like broadband, and there are crazies and vandals, like Turnbull.
There is something a bit odd about the way he presents himself. I assumed I took an instant dislike to him because he’s a Lib, but I suspect Marshall probably needs to get some coaching on how to not present himself as a snake oil salesman if he hopes for a future as a political leader.
Having said that, he must have the requisite charms to have achieved the support he needed within the SA Libs to become leader in the first place. That may say something more about how he comes across in person vs how he comes across on TV … or what the Libs see as a winning style.
poroti,
They haven’t had a hung Parliament since they took down the gallows.
Fran
Logical, as always. 😉
Greensborough Growler
Hmm , that’s an idea. Gallows set up outside the parliament might give MP’s pause for thought as they enter .
Libs lost in SA for two reasons I would hazard a guess at.
Tony Abbott and Steven Marshall saying vote Labor
[Gordon Graham @GordonGraham 8m
For all those conservatives bleating about the 2PP vote: did you accept Howard’s victory in 1998? If so, quit your whinging! #savotes ]
The non aligned, objective, rational, I-base-my-vote-on my judgements-not-on-party -allegiance Mod Lib is spending her morning promoting Abbott. ROFL!
She rationalises, minimises, justifies, obfuscates and misrepresents the facts surrounding the various shit heaps encompassing this incompetent mob, and if this fails , well ….. “look over there”.
I think Norman Gunston is her script writer, and the comedy show about it will go to air soon.
poroti,
No one would want the job.
It would be like trying to find a volunteer to play sherriff in a nude western movie.
BREAKING: Abbott: “It’s a CHEP pallet. I can assure you that someone is paying for this.”
3 . 2 . 1 . . . SA Liberal Party implosion!
poroti:
I don’t remember the Liberals complaining after the 2005 WA election delivered a hung parliament. Or if they did, their complaints weren’t long-lived. 🙂
100
Everything
http://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/library/pubs/rp/2010-11/11rp12.pdf
Among the many stats presented in the link, quite clearly nominal housing interest rates have been decidedly lower under ALP governments than under the alternative. On a similar note, employment growth has been notably stronger under Labor than the Liberals.
Meanwhile, the growth in household debt was overwhelmingly greater under Liberal governments, which goes some way to explaining the radically lower household savings ratio that applied during terms of Liberal rule. Household savings declined from 18.3% of incomes under Whitlam to a derisory 2.2% under Howard before recovering under the Rudd/Gillard Government. There are signs that once again household savings have started to decline as a share of income, reflecting the absolutely feeble growth in real per capita disposable incomes to be expected under the current government.
Of course, Commonwealth taxes have typically been lower under Labor and were never higher than under Howard.
You should really read the data set as a whole rather than by cherry-picking to make specious claims about the LNP. You might also benefit from bearing in mind the very big shifts in the terms of trade that occurred through the period. Most notably, even though there was a significant decline in the terms of trade during the Hawke/Keating era, this Government managed to lift growth in real GDP per capita from 1.1% pa under Fraser to 2.3%pa – a level that Howard was unable to improve on even though the terms of trade improved markedly and the exchange rate fell.
The record really clearly shows the LNP are not managers, they are loafers.
Bruce Hawker giving some good revelations on the Bolt Report
Frodo
Labor winning government in SA. I know who is having the better morning