Seat of the week: Adelaide

Seat of the week returns after a few weeks on the back burner, with the focus remaining on South Australia.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the east and Malvern to the south. Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Kate Ellis. In keeping with statewide trends, the seat moved solidly to Labor in 2007 (by 7.2%), recorded little change in 2010 (a 0.8% Liberal swing), and swung to the Liberals in 2013 (reducing the margin from 7.5% to 3.6%).

Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and its attendant “Catholic Right” faction, and is close to its powerful state figurehead, outgoing Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection for Adelaide at the age of 27 in 2004, following the late withdrawal of Tim Stanley, an industrial lawyer and later Supreme Court justice. Her path was smoothed by a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).

Ellis was promoted to the outer ministry at the age of 30 following the 2007 election victory, beating Paul Keating’s record as Labor’s youngest ever minister. Following the 2010 election she was reassigned from her portfolios of youth and sport to employment participation, childcare and the status of women, exchanging the latter for early childhood and youth when Kevin Rudd resumed the leadership in June 2013. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis was a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, making headlines shortly before Rudd’s February 2012 challenge by claiming Rudd had asked her and other SDA figures how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”. Following the 2013 election defeat she received a substantial promotion to shadow cabinet in the education portfolio.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,361 comments on “Seat of the week: Adelaide”

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  1. I think Mr Carlton has hit the nail on the head; for someone who spends so much time vilifying others Andrew Bolt really is a sensitive little petal.

    [
    Mike Carlton ‏@MikeCarlton01 32m

    We have hit a new low when the Attorney General of Australia can back the bigotry of the loutish, boorish, self-pitying Andrew Bolt.
    ]

  3. Busy news day

    “@EssendonFC : Essendon Football Club wishes to advise the matter relating to James Hird has been referred to a Board meeting on Wednesday 26 March.”

  4. I’m not sure Brandis is right anyway.

    ”People do have a right to be bigots, you know,”

    Do people really have the right to be bigots? Don’t we have anti-discrimination laws against that?

    Is he the worst AG ever?

  6. Pretty good line:
    [
    Tom Palmer ‏@tomppalmer 6m

    The Liberal government will fight for the rights of bigots but not for assistance for orphans of soldiers #auspol
    ]

  8. But it’s also another slogan fest for liberals to take the heat of ICAC and Abbott Goverment, including the upcoming May Budget.

  9. Bw

    [live in a cave]

    He’ll be living in the little palace he built for himself in Rome. It has a decent restaurant, I’m told.

  11. Adam Bandt ‏@AdamBandt 3m

    Just read that ‘bigotry’ is trending in Australia. Today’s contribution from the Abbott government to political debate & the twitterverse.

  14. I hear that the ACT ambulances are getting a bit of a workout carting APS heart attack victims from the workplace to hospital.

    Somehow or other neither of the major parties could give a rat’s arse.

  15. So Artie knew for 12 months that he was in a dodgy company.

    Bongo says the company corruption allegations are a nice counterbalance to the union corruption allegations.

  17. MTBW

    Good stuff. The “man” is actually a wee lassie. As the dog is a border collie it probably trained the owner how to dance 🙂 They’re my fave dog.

  18. poroti

    I was wrong on that when I saw she had make up on.

    My Mum passed away in August and since her first dance with Dad who passed in 1981 we chose Glenn Millers “In the Mood” for the end of the service.

    We had all that music in our house when we were kids. Gets your feet tapping!

  19. [ Buswell Backlash?? ]

    Lol! I was thinking today that the Liberal most pleased to have Uncle Arties troubles front and center must be our Troy.

    🙂

    2909 for a sample size seems pretty large isn’t it??

    I find it difficult to believe the 52/48 result to the ALP in W.A. but what the fwark. 🙂 We suffer through the bad polls so we should revel in the good ones i reckon. 🙂

    And it does set a bit of a mood going into April 5th which is good for those of us on the booths anyway. Always good to give the sweet yung blonde thangs in the tight blue shirts something to worry about.

  23. MTBW

    In the Mood is way outside all my normal music tastes but for some reason I have always loved it. Certainly not on my parent’s play list. There is just something about it that, as you say , “gets your feet tapping”.

  24. In fact there are so many worst evers with this govt:

    Worst ever Prime Minister
    Worst ever Defence Minister
    Worst ever Immigration Minister
    Worst ever Environment Minister
    Worst ever Speaker

    And the promise of much worse yet to come.

  26. Ch7 6pm news had george Pell blaming those above and below him for the response to paedophile priests.

    He blamed the Vatican because he said they treated all complaints as coming from enemies of the church.

    He blamed his advisers for giving him bad advice.

    Thus it’s the fault of everyone else!

  29. [Thus it’s the fault of everyone else!]

    The typical coward’s response.

    He should be booted out of the church. What a disgrace he is.

  32. Pell is a disgrace – no wonder the Catholic Churches are nearly empty.

    Off to Rome for Pell don’t let the door hit you in the ar*e on the way out!

  33. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 27m

    #Morgan Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45.5 (-1) ALP 54.5 (+1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 26m

    #Morgan Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (-1.5) ALP 38.5 (+1.5) GRN 11 (-1) PUP 4.5 (+0.5) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 11m

    #Morgan Poll WA Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-6.5) ALP 52 (+6.5) #auspol

  34. [ In the Mood is way outside all my normal music tastes ]

    Was the only thing my Dad could actually play on the piano. Strictly a muscle memory thing i reckon.

    I have always liked Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy. 🙂

  35. Seems Hartcher’s arse is on fire.

    [The inquiry has heard Mr Obeid predicted a corruption complaint would be made against her by Liberal MP Chris Hartcher.

    An anonymous complaint was made to ICAC, and the lawyer for Mr Hartcher’s former adviser Tim Koelma said on Friday that Mr Koelma was “the source” of the letter.]

    Or will he blame it all on his servant?

  41. [The typical coward’s response.

    He should be booted out of the church. What a disgrace he is.
    ]

    I’m assuming we have given up on trying to understand institutional responses with a view to ensuring more appropriate responses in the future and just on a witch hunt. Hopefully the RC isn’t going down this kind of path because it will not help future victims.

  45. [Morgan Poll WA Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-6.5) ALP 52 (+6.5)

    That last figure is very telling.]

    No margin-of-error escape clause there for the Tories.

  46. The dear Cardinal gets another chance to redeem himself on Wednesday with another Guest appearance.

    Gail Furness ( Council assisting ) & Justice Peter McClellan Commissioner were slow,measured, polite & relentless ALL day.

    In particular get the transcript where McClellan questions Pell on ” morality ” & the law, it was game set & match!

  48. GENERAL AND FINAL NOTICE

    THe Midnorth Coast PBers get together is on this Friday at Port Macquarie at about midday. Any one visiting in area very welcome as anyone who we havn’t contacted Please ask for my email address. Beds can be provided I am told

  50. milenko

    [Gail Furness ( Council assisting ) & Justice Peter McClellan Commissioner were slow,measured, polite & relentless ALL day.]

    And Pell will be getting more uncomfortable every day!

    You have to admire the diligence of John Ellis he was shoved around and around but he followed through.

    Taking on the RC Church would be made very very difficult for him.

    My family are part of the congregation who don’t go to Mass anymore.

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