Seat of the week: Adelaide

Seat of the week returns after a few weeks on the back burner, with the focus remaining on South Australia.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the east and Malvern to the south. Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Kate Ellis. In keeping with statewide trends, the seat moved solidly to Labor in 2007 (by 7.2%), recorded little change in 2010 (a 0.8% Liberal swing), and swung to the Liberals in 2013 (reducing the margin from 7.5% to 3.6%).

Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and its attendant “Catholic Right” faction, and is close to its powerful state figurehead, outgoing Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection for Adelaide at the age of 27 in 2004, following the late withdrawal of Tim Stanley, an industrial lawyer and later Supreme Court justice. Her path was smoothed by a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).

Ellis was promoted to the outer ministry at the age of 30 following the 2007 election victory, beating Paul Keating’s record as Labor’s youngest ever minister. Following the 2010 election she was reassigned from her portfolios of youth and sport to employment participation, childcare and the status of women, exchanging the latter for early childhood and youth when Kevin Rudd resumed the leadership in June 2013. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis was a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, making headlines shortly before Rudd’s February 2012 challenge by claiming Rudd had asked her and other SDA figures how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”. Following the 2013 election defeat she received a substantial promotion to shadow cabinet in the education portfolio.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,361 comments on “Seat of the week: Adelaide”

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  6. [Queensland Premier Campbell Newman says he won’t change pub and club trading hours because people should be able to “let their hair down and party”.]

    Unless they congregate en masse at which point they’ll be arrested under Newman’s anti association laws?

  8. BK

    I’d say we do. It’s free speech after all. Just as the right to fart in a lift does not disqualify others from complaining, so too the right to vent bigotry does not grant immunity from being called out on it.

  10. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 1m

    Scott Morrison is appearing at a biometrics conference in May to discuss “modernising Australia’s border management systems”

    Since when does Liberals do Modernising? Because they haven’t modernized anywhere else?

    Ah that’s right.

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 47s

    Modernising. pic.twitter.com/gzEM5QJxhY

    Great reply there by Josh.

  11. [Queensland Premier Campbell Newman says he won’t change pub and club trading hours…]

    Despite the committee he established recommending he does exactly that. But the AHA have him by the balls of course.

  12. You’ll probably find that Q&A will focus on the Howes stuff. Jones will try to steer clear of Sinodinos and the bigots.

  14. [But the AHA have him by the balls of course.]

    Every other state seems to be moving towards more regulation over pub trading hours. Even in boganville Perth it was deemed inevitable after all the Northbridge nightclub and street violence.

  15. ‘fess

    Via ICAC we have discovered that the head of the AHA was soliciting prepaid $5,000 donations to Newman, AWH is one party that paid.

  19. #1023 Diogenes

    That you call those here who fail to condemn Howes “dimwitted union thugs” reflects very poorly on you.

    You demonstrate a poverty of thought, vocabulary, insight and courtesy.

  23. [You demonstrate a poverty of thought, vocabulary, insight and courtesy.
    ]

    And here I thought it was a very sound conclusion based on all the evidence.

  25. [Analysis by States

    The ALP leads in Australia’s three largest States. NSW: ALP (54.5%) cf. L-NP (45.5%), Victoria: ALP (55%) cf. L-NP (45%) and Queensland: ALP (56.5%) cf. L-NP (43 .5%).

    In Western Australia the ALP (52%) leads the L-NP (48%) only two weeks before Western Australia votes in a special half-Senate election on April 5. The ALP also leads narrowly in South Australia and leads in Tasmania]

    Ooops

    If the WA poll is kosher, poor Tony.

  26. Geoffrey and Putin
    ____________
    It’s very difficult to conduct any sort of debate with you in view of your usual ignorance and refusal to consider key facts
    Some facts you are ignorant are…..

    I am not a Communist and no way do I see Putin as my hero(in fact in Russia the Communists are his major enemy)
    In case you missed it (as you do so many things)the USSR is gone

    Fact..Putin is an old Russian conservative Nationalist. He has restored order to the ruined economy after the Yeltzin years when inflation ruined millions,notably the elderly with small pensions…many WW2 widows

    Fact He introduced a most coservative tax regime…a 13% flat tax on all…Hockey and Abbott would love it…but it stabilised the economy
    I think such taxes are unjust btw…but conservatives love them

    Fact He has gained the support of the most conservative institution in Russia…the Orthodox Church…much persecuted under the Soviets…but now back in the box seat…I saw the Patriach and his men in all their splendid robes with Putin in the Kremlin last week during his major speech.on TV ..he has them all on board…rather like the Czars really

    In a way Putin has restored an older conservative Russia,and the US-backed coup in Kiev has also played into his hands with public opinion

    Fact…He is a clever operator

    All these are important facts to know about his regime and the way you dismiss such by describing me and people like Tom Paine as “commos”has a McCarthyite..1950ies flavour to it..

    Tom Paine is more pungent than me and described your comments I think, as “horeshit” and he’s was right..and I don’t intend to debate with you again.it’s not worth the waste of my time…..so don’t address any comments to me again

  27. zoid

    [Will wait for the liberals on PB to dismiss.]

    Of course it couldn’t be right – Tones is going just great …

    :devil:

  28. BK

    Did you see the you tube video of Sister Cristina singing on the Italian version of the Voice?

    That is what the church should look like she is just lovely with no ego.

  29. The two effective techniques to handle Bishop have been:

    (1) repeated points of order
    (2) refer to page x of the Standing Orders
    (3) open, mocking laughter from all, most of, those on the left

    IMHO, (3) works the very best. There is no defence for arrogant incompetents against mocking laughter.

  31. rua

    Are you insinuating that Tony Chrissy Hockey Julie Bronwyn and Scott are not liked by the public?

    Every dog has his day we just have to wait long enough.

  36. MTBW

    Very pleased that Pell looked abashed. I just hope he doesn’t get off scott free – he deserves to be lashed for trying to sweep it all under the carpet. So many lives have been ruined because they’ve been made to feel guiltier than the perpetrators.

    BTW Absolutely loved the Nun singing and dancing. Thanks for the link.

  37. Paddy O

    [Buswell backlash?]
    Probably not. The Emperor on the other hand has been on a Break-a-promiseathon since the last state election. Then there is THE Abbott.

  39. [ I just hope he doesn’t get off scott free – he deserves to be lashed for trying to sweep it all under the carpet. ]

    Just the kind of calm objective progressive analysis and insight one would look for …

  40. BH

    [I just hope he doesn’t get off scott free ]

    He’ll be in Rome and untouchable by the time any recommendations are made.

  41. WWP

    [ You demonstrate a poverty of thought, vocabulary, insight and courtesy.

    And here I thought it was a very sound conclusion based on all the evidence.]

    I notice he left out “embittered”. That sort of gave the game away.

  42. Re Morgan poll – sample size is 2900, so fairly large. Margin of error would be about 1.9%.

    WA sample would only be about 300 (MOE about 5.8%) so it’s probably too small to draw conclusions about the coming Senate ‘by election’

  46. Artie ‘the Bagman’ draining all oxygen from Abbott’s stunt and lie-a-thon.

    Just watched. CH10 news and it was all Artie this and Artie that. With numerous shots of Abbott saying what an honourable man Artie is.

  47. I defend to the last the right of Brandis to be a total fucking bigoted moron.

    Shame many groups in our society will not. Great move George.

  49. Pell should put on a hair shirt, live off water and unleavened bread, and go live in a cave, begging the omnipotent for forgiveness.

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