Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Nielsen poll strengthens the impression from last month’s result that the series may be leaning to the Coalition relative to the other pollsters.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax has the Coalition leading 51-49. I’m not clear if this is based on respondent-allocated or previous election preferences, but the respective results in last month’s poll were 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition primary vote is steady on 44%, Labor is up two to 35%, and the Greens are steady on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval is steady on 45% and his disapproval is up two to 49%, while his lead as preferred prime minister is down from 49-39 to 48-43. More to follow …

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that the poll also shows 52% support a means test for Medicare bulk billing versus 46% opposed, and the following results on what the government should do about Qantas: 30% remove foreign ownership restrictions, 20% provide debt guarantee, 3% both, 41% neither.

UPDATE 2: Full tables here.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): After a week at 50-50, Essential Research has the Coalition back at 51-49 in front, their primary vote up a point to 43%, Labor’s down two to 36%, the Greens up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party steady at 4%. Other questions find respondents tending to oppose relaxing restrictions on the media, with 31% favouring more regulation, 15% favouring less and 36% thinking the present situation about right, while 43% are opposed to relaxing cross-media ownership laws with 29% supportive. Twenty-six per cent say they would prefer having the same party in government at both federal and state tiers against 24% who would prefer different parties and 36% who say it makes no difference. Respondents were asked if they would prefer the federal or state government to be responsible for various areas of policy, with the federal government favoured for everything except roads, regional investment and public transport.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,109 comments on “Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  2. Zoid,

    I did a cursory google image search for attack ads, and since Everything is making racial characterisations from fonts I thought I’d show one used in a different context

  4. need it be said again, we have waited so long for bland, robo scripted mumbling shorten. someone else would have stronger polls – someone who can engage public and is vaguely charismatic. is that toooooo much to ask

  6. [The Coalition are nothing if not original, zoidlord]

    Given how long they have been banging on about boats, and :monkey: commenting about the TPP result (illegitimate govt anyone??) it seems to me they are actually still recycling themes rather than coming up with original lines.

  8. The chart of the Nielsen Poll results in the SMH show Labor 51%, Coalition 49%.
    However Mark Kenny has written the opposite.

    What’s going on ?

  12. For all the left wing hacks out there, how did your “Fundamental Day of Injustice Mark II” or whatever it was called go? Pathetic that you’d re-use that rubbish name again when it’s just the people passing their judgment at an election…was SA an injustice? Be careful what you wish for!

    I couldn’t help but find it interesting how the Green and Socialist stooges are borrowing tactics from the organisation that brought us “Ditch The Witch”…you’d think that the fringe left might be smart enough not to repeat what they so loudly criticised

  15. Regarding the polls, they are certainly up and down, but bearing MOE in mind all seem to settle out tp around 51/49 2pp to Labor. This one appears to flatter the Liberals a little, especially given the result in SA.

  16. Gittins has the clearest explanation of why Abbott should NOT repeal the mining tax.

    [Got the message yet? For our economy and our workers to benefit adequately from the exploitation of our natural endowment by mainly foreign companies, our government has to ensure it gets a fair whack of the economic rents those foreigners generate.

    This, of course, is the justification for the minerals resource rent tax. And the fact that, so far, the tax has raised tiny amounts of revenue doesn’t mean mining is no longer highly profitable, nor that the tax isn’t worth bothering with.

    Because Labor so foolishly allowed the big three foreign miners to redesign the tax, they chose to get all their deductions up-front. Once those deductions are used up, the tax will become a big earner. Long before then, however, Tony Abbott will have rewarded the Liberal Party’s foreign donors by abolishing the tax.

    This will be an act of major fiscal vandalism, of little or no benefit to the economy and at great cost to job creation.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/ending-mining-tax-will-damage-jobs-20140316-34vh1.html#ixzz2w9undw00

  18. After yesterday’s protest, I think its safe to say Abbott is now more abused as PM than Gillard. The proaggressives are a hypocritical mob.

  22. How to means test bulk billing?
    Easy, just as Hawke did, – reduce the government benefit for those who don’t have a health care card. GP can then either ride the loss or get the patient to make a co-payment.
    Complaint then falls on GP rather than government – Hawke knew his politics!

  25. [After yesterday’s protest, I think its safe to say Abbott is now more abused as PM than Gillard. The proaggressives are a hypocritical mob.]
    So Alan Jones was at the rally leading the mob? “Ditch Abbott the fagot?” I missed that bit.

  26. Lizzie 64

    Thanks for the link. It was all explained clearly in the Henry review, which I have encouraged people to read many times. Sadly Gillard’s cave in to the miners neutered the tax.

    Depending on the WA senate result, there is still a chance to block repeal of the mining tax.

    Gittins is correct about the beneficiaries of our mining boom being mostly foreign. BHPB is over 70% foreign owned, Rio Tinto over 80%, and Xtrata/Glencore 100%. We gave our best assets away for a song.

  32. Was there a few minor rallies around Australia yesterday. I am just asking because I can’t see any reporting on this mornings ABC News 24.

    Perhaps the ummmer and arrrher was right when he said the only parade he knew of was the St Paddies parade.

  33. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I didn’t realise we had a new thread.

    I will be in Canberra for the next two mornings so, with only an iPad – useless for creating stuff – on hand I will most likely be unable to post my Patrolllers’ Report.

    This will be interesting. The devil will be in the detail.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-war-on-red-tape-starts-with-repeal-day-20140316-34ve5.html
    Michael Gordon reviews the latest Fairfax poll.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbott-still-unpopular-with-voters-20140316-34vnh.html
    Simple. Randall rorted.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mp-don-randall-asked-finance-officials-if-he-could-charge-taxpayers-for-trip-20140316-34vn0.html
    Religion? Pfffttt!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/criticising-islam-gays-sets-army-major-up-for-a-fall-20140316-34va7.html
    Sour grapes in large quantities at the Liberal Party.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia-state-election-2014/liberals-call-for-changes-to-sas-electoral-laws-in-wake-of-state-election/story-fnl3k6uz-1226856125213
    Anne Summers has some advice for Abbott on the subject of feminism.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-as-one-feminist-to-another-here-are-a-few-words-of-advice-20140316-34va9.html
    Ross Gittins warns against abolishing the mining tax.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/ending-mining-tax-will-damage-jobs-20140316-34vh1.html

  34. Section 2 . . .

    Alan Moir peers through Abbott’s intentions on health care.

    Just in case you missed David Pope’s ripper on Saturday.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Matt Golding and Abbott’s Dreamtime.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/matt-golding-20090907-fdh2.html
    Pat Campbell looks at arts funding.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
    SO CLEVER!! David Rowe at the Grand Prix with Jay Weatherill and the new car specifications.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWO

  38. Lizzie 72
    What a poor article.
    I don’t know a lot of statistics but I do know that when a series has an outlier this must be accommodated in some way before analysis and is often left out. If you do this, by eliminating the US you get a straight line.
    This also does not address the quality of care. The US has the best medical service money can buy for 70 % of the population and virtually nothing for the remainder. Overall the highly privatised French system has been rated best by WHO with Australia a very long way behind.
    It is no mystery why this article was written Richardson is a long standing Medicare monopoly ideologue, never heard of the other author but presumably one of his acolytes.

  42. [The Government will seek formal permission from the Legislative Assembly for Troy Buswell to be absent from Parliament beyond Thursday.

    The period of leave the Government asks for could be revealing as speculation mounts over whether he will continue as the member for Vasse.

    Under the standing orders governing the 124-year-old Lower House, members are in contempt if they miss more than nine consecutive sitting days.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/22016048/buswell-needs-extended-leave/

  43. “@MayneReport: If public company boards and execs have to disclose their pay, why shouldn’t top journalists? Same with speaking fees.”

  49. confessions

    I very rarely watch sky these days, but nothing Richo said today was remotely complimentary of Labor. He actually said he admired Abbott and Hockey for their stance on ending the age of entitlement.

  50. He actually said he admired Abbott and Hockey for their stance on ending the age of entitlement

    But they only want to end the age of entitlement for those who actually need support from the wider community. Handouts and concessions for the well off and corporations is set to continue and expand.

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