Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Nielsen poll strengthens the impression from last month’s result that the series may be leaning to the Coalition relative to the other pollsters.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax has the Coalition leading 51-49. I’m not clear if this is based on respondent-allocated or previous election preferences, but the respective results in last month’s poll were 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition primary vote is steady on 44%, Labor is up two to 35%, and the Greens are steady on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval is steady on 45% and his disapproval is up two to 49%, while his lead as preferred prime minister is down from 49-39 to 48-43. More to follow …

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that the poll also shows 52% support a means test for Medicare bulk billing versus 46% opposed, and the following results on what the government should do about Qantas: 30% remove foreign ownership restrictions, 20% provide debt guarantee, 3% both, 41% neither.

UPDATE 2: Full tables here.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): After a week at 50-50, Essential Research has the Coalition back at 51-49 in front, their primary vote up a point to 43%, Labor’s down two to 36%, the Greens up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party steady at 4%. Other questions find respondents tending to oppose relaxing restrictions on the media, with 31% favouring more regulation, 15% favouring less and 36% thinking the present situation about right, while 43% are opposed to relaxing cross-media ownership laws with 29% supportive. Twenty-six per cent say they would prefer having the same party in government at both federal and state tiers against 24% who would prefer different parties and 36% who say it makes no difference. Respondents were asked if they would prefer the federal or state government to be responsible for various areas of policy, with the federal government favoured for everything except roads, regional investment and public transport.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,109 comments on “Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Thursday, March 20, 2014 at 12:18 am | PERMALINK
    I support independence for Queensland, but the blighters refuse to leave.

    ——-silly. we cant all live in SA and call it the civilized free domain of australia (isn’t that what they always thought of themselves in fact were)

  2. Actually
    I have not seen any suggestion the Crimean referendum was in any way rigged
    Give that about 2/3 of voters were ethnic Russians,and that ,many others abstained the final result was about what one would expect …
    and the Crimea was always Russian until Kruschev’s extraordinary decisions in the 1950ies to pl;ace it under Ukrainian the old Soviet Union that didn’t matter much,but today it does

  3. o dear deblonay you and thom are an indefatigible two of a kind – if you’re not careful i might report you to my ex hungarian neighbour who once was handy in street fighting, so much so that he will still not disclose what he exactly did in the uprising. i will leave you with your red army collection and as someone else aptly said your collection of dusty tribunes. am thankful to have been spared either because of upbringing or age the temptation you must have had to all things east european, and am free to conceive other forms of contemporary communalism. if you send me your address will also send a half dress full bodied shot of your new found deliverer for you to also admire late at night – and no, I wont forward to to my elder political asylum neighbour.

  4. Arrived in Thailand this evening. Now on line in our Bangkok hotel. No sign of any demonstrators so far.

    Will provide an overview as I travel around.

    Off to Khon Kaen on Saturday.

    A week later we will be attending a large Buddhist “village wedding” – 400 guests plus ‘lookers on”.

    Strangely this religious wedding has no recognition in Thai law. Only an “amphur wedding” (government office) is legally binding.

    Imagine the uproar in Australia if the Registry Office was the only legally binding wedding.

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