Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

After the last result gave Labor its biggest lead of any poll since the election of the Abbott government, the latest fortnightly Newspoll has come in closer to trend.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49 after a blowout to 54-46 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two), 35% for Labor (down four) and 11% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report, which just maybe reads excessive political import into what’s actually statistical noise. Although it could indeed be telling that Bill Shorten’s ratings have again gone down despite a better set of numbers for Labor on voting intention.

UPDATE 2: Leader ratings have Tony Abbott up two on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 33% and up four to 43%. Tony Abbott makes a solid gain on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-37 to 42-36.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): Essential Research is 50-50, after the Coalition hit the lead 51-49 last week. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 42%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 38% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party up one to 4%. The monthly personal ratings have Bill Shorten up two on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 39%, Tony Abbott down one to 40% and steady on 47%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 40-30 to 39-33. A question on Qantas shows respondents react negatively to the words “jobs being sent offshore”, 62% pressing the “disapprove” button despite the qualification of it happening improving the airline’s “profitability and long-term success”, while only 25% opted for approve. Fifty-nine per cent think foreign ownership would be bad for Australian jobs and 46% bad for the economy, versus 16% and 24% good. However, it would be thought good for Qantas profits by a margin of 48-19, and good for air travellers by 30-25.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): The latest Morgan poll, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2903 by face-to-face and SMS surveying, has a bounce in Labor’s lead from 50.5-49.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is a slightly more moderate 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The Coalition is down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39.5%, Labor is up 1.5% to 37%, the Greens are up 1.5% to 12%, and the Palmer United Party is up half a point to 4%. Morgan has taken to including state breakdowns on two-party preferred, the latest set having Labor ahead 55-45 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, while the Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, 52.5-47.5 in South Australia and 52.5-47.5 in Tasmania.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,524 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  4. There just aren’t ANY inspirational and strong political leaders around at the moment who are capable of drawing widespread support.

  5. Sk

    [I have thought for many years a third option, a protest vote box, would be interesting. ]

    An excellent idea.

    And wouldn’t it be great if there were forms there that you could append outlining the rationale for your protest?

    What if you could check boxes where the public policy offerings were to your mind, inadequate or offensive?

    We’d be taking a small step towards something like inclusive governance.

  6. [If the Web is indeed 25 years old today, my website has existed for 60% of that time, since May 1999.]

    And it kinda looks it, too 😉

  8. hairy nose

    [hairy nose
    Posted Wednesday, March 12, 2014 at 3:19 pm | PERMALINK
    “Perhaps he can start by asking whether there is anything else that happened that night, or in Mr Buswell’s recent past, that he should know about.”

    Remarkably this, addressed to Barnett, is part of today’s West editorial – methinks they know something we don’t yet!]

    This is what happens when you seek to deceive

  10. [And it kinda looks it, too]

    Yes, the current design dates from 2004 and I know I ought to get it redone. But it’s so big now it would be quite expensive, and it doesn’t really matter because people come to it for information not because it’s pretty.

  11. [it doesn’t really matter because people come to it for information not because it’s pretty.]

    Yep, it’s fit for its purpose, so there’s no need to change it.

  12. Poroti

    [For the first time in a general election in India, voters will be allowed to cast a ballot for “None of the Above.”]

    It’s a good option. I’d like “one of the above” most of the time though. I’d also like to vote in the Senate, though ultimately, I see that as a redundant chamber.

    Given some changes to our voting structure, we could do away with that.

  14. This could explain what may have occurred with the MAS airplane

    [The US airline safety regulator warned in November of cracking in the fuselage skin underneath a Boeing 777’s satellite antenna, issuing a worldwide alert for the flaw to be fixed as it could lead to decompression that would leave occupants unconscious.
    The problem identified by the US Federal Aviation Administration provides a possible explanation as to why a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 plane mysteriously went missing en route to Beijing on Saturday.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-us-issued-warnings-over-boeing-777s-20140312-hvhqz.html#ixzz2vinPjPuR

  15. Psephos

    They say that every MP has the field Marshall’s baryon in his knapsack. In the case of the Barnett ministry some still have their backpack from school.
    The ministry is a mix of old hands like John day and Kim Hames, some inoffensive middle rankers and new chums like Albert Jacob and Joe Francis.
    Leaders none of them
    I daresay though that Rob Johnston would be happy to be drafted …
    A few months ago the West Australian ran a curious story about a first term upper house member whose name escapes me, saying what a fine talent he was. Reading between the lines the idea was that he was the next premier. Just had to get him into the lower house.. Mere technicality.
    The reality is that no one, no matter how ambitious,would want the job now. There are serious budget issues to be dealt with, the government has a major credibility problem and it is three years to the next election.
    Not an ideal time to be taking over and hoping to enjoy a bit of a honeymoon run to the polls.

  18. [Well that will change pretty quickly. I can’t believe no-one wants to be Premier.
    ]

    Well many of them may well want to be premier but if Barnett can’t even find someone competent and politically acceptable to be Treasurer it looks like the cupboard is very empty.

  20. rossmcg

    🙂

    [Baryons are massive particles which are made up of three quarks in the standard model. This class of particles includes the proton and neutron.]

  21. Well I avoided the chaos in Sydney.

    If Barnett goes until a vote is taken or solid word is heard otherwise it will be the deputy liberal leader or one after that.

    Thats as far as I will go in guessing games. Are things looking like engulfing the Premier? I think they should but know that doesn’t mean they will.

  22. Poroti

    I got a new ipad the other day , sounds like a few baryons are running loose inside it. I’ll run the quark detector over it later.

  23. zoidlord

    Now I’ve seen the poster, I’d say it’s implied racism.
    Since the woman was born in Australia and is half Canadian.

  24. [rossmcg
    Posted Wednesday, March 12, 2014 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

    There are serious budget issues to be dealt with, the government has a major credibility problem ….. ]

    Something for Bludgers to remember next time crank turns up here….how the WA tories blew the proceeds of the mining boom.

  25. Now I’ve seen the poster, I’d say it’s implied racism.

    Hmmm. If you had the exact same poster and it said “Can you trust Barnett?” with the same font, size etc would that be racism, implied or otherwise?

  26. An Australian Business website The Daily Reckoning” looks at the questions of sanctions on Russia ,which Bishop supports
    __________________________

    In fact as the business mag shows sanctions are difficult to manage when the EU nations are major customers for Russian gas and oil..for which they have no substitutes
    In the meantime the Russian parliament is debating retaliatory
    measures including the confiscation of EU/.US investments and businesses operating in Russia..and perhaps a demand that gas/oil bills be paid for in Gold Bullion,,,not US dollars.. thereby striking a blow at the US dollar on the world markets

    In addition Ukraine is now far behind in its’ payments for energy supplied… to the extent of several $BillionsUS… and may have to use the emergency loan it got this week from the US to pay the Russians…a nice irony !!

    http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/the-ukraine-crisis-plot-twists-again/2014/03/06/

  27. Yup, commissioning @ Home with the Abbott’s would be a good way for the ABC to show it is unbiased. Although it has to be said that the Libs are obviously a more vindictive lot than the ALP.

    FFS, Abbott openly questioned their future funding over the Kenny Dog Bothering issue. The Fibs would go utterly ballistic over Abbott apparently naked under a flag on the office floor with Margie.

    Wonder how they would portray the daughters?? Actually they would probably leave them out of it, but how they portray Peta would be interesting?? 🙂

    On Buswell, this is getting waaaaaaaay worse if the coppers are investigating other accidents that may have happened between the wedding and his home. Have to admit the photo of the damaged car looked like more had happened than just a slow bump into a gatepost.

    If the coppers knew that a damaged vehicle was there, (that could easily be identified as being Buswell’s) it had been reported that it had been driving very erratically, and there were a string of other accidents in the area at around the time that vehicle was on the road, then the coppers have to explain why it wasn’t followed up at the time and how its NOT a cover up.

  29. “@bencjenkins: Bolt getting outraged over the race-baiting Habib ad. Proof he is a turbo-trolling robot from the future sent back in time for some reason.”

    Hmmmm so now Bolt wants to keep the Racial Discrimination Act as is does he?

  30. Jackol

    It’s an interesting one.
    The use of “Barnett” would imply reference to a well-known figure.
    With no background to the “Habib” name, there is a hint of a reference to someone who might have broken the law, or, as I said, implied distrust of a foreign name.

    None of this is true if the Habib lady is extremely well known in her area, but I still think it’s not quite the thing.

  34. I picked “Barnett” out of the air of course … pick your local (white Anglo) low profile Liberal or ALP candidate’s surname if you prefer…

    I just think it’s a bit much to be jumping to the racism conclusion – casting aspersions on your opponent’s trustworthiness is the oldest political strategy in the book. A fairly pathetic strategy in my opinion, but in most cases it has nothing to do with race.

    Maybe the ALP were motivated to exploit racist sentiment, maybe they were just doing what they would do against any opponent. I don’t think that poster is proof of much one way or the other, and it may say more about the people who jump to the conclusion that highlighting “Habib” is omg racist!11!1!, when it’s just the name of a political candidate.

  39. Someone (a National) with the courage to resign on a principle.

    [Mr Hall, who will be replaced in his upper house electorate of Eastern Victoria through the usual preselection process, confessed to TAFE leaders in 2012 that he considered “throwing in the towel” over the higher education cuts, and that he shared their “emotions of shock, incredulity, disbelief and anger”.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/minister-in-shock-resignation-ahead-of-cabinet-reshuffle-20140312-34mc7.html#ixzz2viytS9Hp

  40. Imacca

    Come on, you have been trying to get the police conspiracy up since the start of the buswell thing.

    The car was NOT registered to Buswell, but to a government department.

    Buswell was NOT listed at living at the Subiaco address.

    It’s probable the cops are guilty laziness in not following up and possible they are guilty of incompetence. But conspiracy? nah! stuff up every time.

    The real digging is to be done in Barnett’s office, but as I said earlier he will stonewall and his loyal staff will back him up.

  41. As I said in the SA thread, the racist implication of that pamphlet is kinda there. It’s not the name that matters (her name is Habib; it’s not my problem if you automatically want to give it negative connotations) but rather the background which implies a war torn area – conjuring up thoughts of middle eastern extremists. But the thing is it is vague enough that it could be just an error in judgement and not enough to condemn anybody on. Certainly, if the Liberals make an issue of it, they’ll just look like “PC thugs”.

    And I couldn’t give a rat’s arse what Bolt thinks. He has absolutely no interest in fighting racism and is only bringing it up for partisan reasons (and perhaps a bit of the “this poor not-dark woman is being painted as a mean, scary mussie!”) – it would be fine for him if a Labor candidate were on the receiving end of it.

  42. Jackol

    But it doesn’t give her full name.
    I’m just uncomfortable, that’s all.
    I’m also uncomfortable that I might be seen to agree with Andrew Bolt over anything. That’s worse!!

  43. Carey

    [the background which implies a war torn area – conjuring up thoughts of middle eastern extremists]

    You understood the subliminal message.

  44. The only way out for Labor is if they can produce real quick posters sent ut to all electorates with name of Liberal candidate with that brick image on it.

    If not a swift someone stuffed up we are dealing with it and apologise is in order. Otherwise you will get the effect Jackie Kelly saw in Sydney’s West.

  46. “@tennewsmelb: CHAOS IN THE CHAMBER: Some MPs flee #springst as police clash with invading protestors. @DavidWoiwod10 has the latest”

    ????????

  47. [the background which implies a war torn area – conjuring up thoughts of middle eastern extremists]

    It looks like a typical laneway wall in Newtown, if you ask me.

  49. If I had a dollar, (which I don’t) I would bet that when we get wall to wall Liberal govt’s they will raise the GST.

    Or at least try to.

  50. the background which implies a war torn area – conjuring up thoughts of middle eastern extremists

    Have you seen what passes for attack ads over the last 10 years? Dark over-exposed images of people and words and disturbing ill-defined shapes with harsh colours and sinister music etc. It’s all about associating a candidate with unpleasant unspecified nastiness.

    I don’t like it as a tactic, but it’s not a particularly racist thing (although racism can certainly be exploited in it!)

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