Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

After the last result gave Labor its biggest lead of any poll since the election of the Abbott government, the latest fortnightly Newspoll has come in closer to trend.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49 after a blowout to 54-46 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two), 35% for Labor (down four) and 11% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report, which just maybe reads excessive political import into what’s actually statistical noise. Although it could indeed be telling that Bill Shorten’s ratings have again gone down despite a better set of numbers for Labor on voting intention.

UPDATE 2: Leader ratings have Tony Abbott up two on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 33% and up four to 43%. Tony Abbott makes a solid gain on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-37 to 42-36.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): Essential Research is 50-50, after the Coalition hit the lead 51-49 last week. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 42%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 38% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party up one to 4%. The monthly personal ratings have Bill Shorten up two on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 39%, Tony Abbott down one to 40% and steady on 47%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 40-30 to 39-33. A question on Qantas shows respondents react negatively to the words “jobs being sent offshore”, 62% pressing the “disapprove” button despite the qualification of it happening improving the airline’s “profitability and long-term success”, while only 25% opted for approve. Fifty-nine per cent think foreign ownership would be bad for Australian jobs and 46% bad for the economy, versus 16% and 24% good. However, it would be thought good for Qantas profits by a margin of 48-19, and good for air travellers by 30-25.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): The latest Morgan poll, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2903 by face-to-face and SMS surveying, has a bounce in Labor’s lead from 50.5-49.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is a slightly more moderate 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The Coalition is down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39.5%, Labor is up 1.5% to 37%, the Greens are up 1.5% to 12%, and the Palmer United Party is up half a point to 4%. Morgan has taken to including state breakdowns on two-party preferred, the latest set having Labor ahead 55-45 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, while the Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, 52.5-47.5 in South Australia and 52.5-47.5 in Tasmania.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,524 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. “Psephos, the title of that article is wrong. Tim Berners Lee invented the www, not the internet.”

    Yes, I was using what was then termed the ‘internet’ in mid-1991 at RMIT to connect with American organisations. Melbourne Uni was one of the main hubs in the world at the time, I believe. The WWW came later.

  2. After deadly runaway bushfires, the silence of the koalas is deafening and nothing will grow for years.

    A news novelista!

    just divine

    the silence of the koalas…can see it now

  3. Rossmcg,

    The day before yesterday ch7 showed “file vision” of Buswell arriving “home” at that very address.

    The vision showed Buswell standing next to the very same car, in the very same parking spot.

    How is it the everybody else knew where he lived but those that were supposed to know knew nothing?

    Why won’t Liza Harvey, the police minister, give a straight answer as to what she knew? Every time she has been asked she point blank refuses to answer. She is hiding something.

    They had 15 days to get their information “organised” & they’ve done so.

    It is a cover up.

  4. Yes the GST is going to change I wonder if it will just go onto items its not on now, food etc or just go up to 15% or both

  5. Bolt criticising the reaction to the Habib pamphlet is a bit rich isn’t it?

    He has never showed any support for ALP candidates.

    Ignore the ba**ard!

  6. “@nickharmsen: Yes everyone.. I’m aware that’s not a real Joe Hockey account. But the Andrew Southcott account which retweeted is genuine.”

  7. Has anyone here seen the flyer? Does it have any other info on it to explain why people shouldn’t trust Habib or in any way put the wall image in context?

    At face value and based only the image posted earlier I’m certainly uncomfortable with it. Without any other context to judge it on, the message I get is not one that I want Labor to be sending. Someone being too smart by half I think

  8. The increase in ‘revenue’ brought in by a broadening of the GST base, or its base rate, would be more than offset by the downturn in economic activity from the lower classes, who would then have less disposable income to stimulate the economy with.

    Of course we don’t actually need a budget surplus, and a GST increase has nothing to do with fiscal responsibility, but it’s nice to know that any excuse the LNP use to justify broadening the GST is total rubbish.

  9. The full flyer is on the abc site, shows all 3 pages.

    Nothing wrong at all, if you agree with calling people by their surname. Like , Gillard, Shorten, Abbott.

  10. ruawake

    Thats why any such posters sent out to other electorates with an anglosaxon surname would be a slam dunk of a denial of racism.

  11. poroti 1159

    there are several places that have such a voting option. France and Spain come to mind. I think there is a group in the UK lobbying for something similar.

    Could we add something to the constitution that if the protest vote was, say, >30% that the election was voided and political parties had to disband and start again. Ok, thats mischievous, but the ‘none of the above’ box has merit, as much as I enjoy drawing my own box with a picture of Mickey Mouse next to it.

  12. “@Juanita_Phillip: #barangaroo now eating my dinner while gridlocked in stationary traffic. Really hoping I get to read the news tonight”

  13. All I saw was a grey wall with Habib’s name highlighted and the dramatic rate rises since she was elected into council and a question of who you could trust.

    Pretty normal stuff!

    btw, she’s an attractive woman without a scowl, sure she’s a liberal? 🙂

  14. Dee, there seems to be little scowling on the female Liberal candidate posters I have seen. There is the slightest hint of a smile on Isobel Redmonds and even Vicki Chapman seems most pleasant and approachable.

    I cant believe I just said that.

  15. Ken Henry is no fool or patsy. As an ex public servant head he’s always very cautious and dry in what he says.

    His recent comments have very pointedly led with “taxation” – he knows perfectly well there are issues with revenue that need to be fixed up, and that it’s not all about cutting benefits and services and public servant numbers.

  16. Simon

    More importantly, do you find the flyer offensive?

    Agree with Rua that we all use the surnames of ministers, senators,journos etc..why is Habib considered to be an exception?

  17. Rex Douglas,

    It is not. What a crock!
    It’s the usual double standard the Libs apply.
    There is nothing wrong with the flyer.

  18. I am certain labor people would be going feral if the libs ran a ‘can you trust habib’ leaflet.

    We would be half right.

    There is a certain irony in the decade plus of vilification of boat people being used against a liberal candidate – as that is in part what is happening whether or not it was the intent.

  19. 144th exonerated death row inmate freed after 30 years in gaol.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/12/death-row-inmate-glenn-ford-released-30-years-after-wrongful-conviction

    To be fair, he ticked a lot of key attributes for death row

    1. Black
    2. Plebeian
    3. All white jury
    4. Lead lawyer had no criminal experience — all in commercial law relating to oil & gas exploration; junior 2 years out of law school and handling traffic matters
    5. Louisiana
    6. Exculpatory evidence withheld by prosecution at discovery
    7. Witness lied to protect boyfriend who was also in the frame

    The Louisiana Supreme Court declared that the case against the prisoner was “not overwhelming” and had “serious” problems but left him on death row.

  20. Fran Barlow

    Re No.7 This is 7(a)

    [ Marvella Brown, admitted in front of the jury that she had given false testimony. “I did lie to the court… I lied about it all,” she said.]

  21. I’ve just taken a look at the Habib leaflet. I’m not seeing any clear ethnically-based slur.

    It looks like a typical attack ad to me.

  22. Habib is Carolyn’s surname, she should be proud to wear it.

    Her surname was no impediment to the locals who voted for her.

    BTW, the questions relate to her position in council. I have no idea what she promised in the council elections but it looks like she didn’t deliver.

  23. [I’ve just taken a look at the Habib leaflet. I’m not seeing any clear ethnically-based slur.
    ]

    I agree with that – the libs are basically admitting parts of Australia are racist enough to alter voting simply on a name. Though I strongly support anti vilification laws and I’m sure the leaflet is playing on that vilification as a matter of causation Howard and his children overboard they are not like us stuff is the cause.

  24. Diogenes@1225

    I don’t think the Habib pamphlet is racist.

    Thats because its not.

    But when the tories did this it was racist –

    [ Outgoing Liberal MP Jackie Kelly has dismissed the alleged distribution of bogus race-based election material by her husband as a “Chaser-style prank”.

    Ms Kelly, whose husband Gary Clark has been implicated in the distribution of the bogus document, said her first instinct when she saw the pamphlet was to laugh. ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/lib-laughs-off-mail-scam/2007/11/22/1195321902785.html

    The pamphlet –

    http://www.smh.com.au/images/Islamic%20Pamphlet.pdf

  25. Interestingly, 2 out of four of the responses on Bolt’s site tell him to get over it, and one expressly claims that use of s18C is never appropriate.

    Bolt in one sentence says he’d like to see s18C go, but not before it is used against the ALP. Truly, hypocrisy is the homage vice pays to virtue.

    In an odd way, I’d like to grant Bolt’s wish and have Bromberg hear it. I believe it would be instructive as we could again compare and contrast the two cases. I believe it would underpin the case for keeping s18C.

  26. “@HRP_org: #asylumseekers reporting two people were blinded in #Manus attacks, inc one man who was sent to Brisbane for treatment #auspol”

  27. “@JohnJohnsonson: ??? RT @rupertmurdoch Jihadi firebugs attacking barangaroo shows ,nobody safe from terrorism . Govt must freeze refugee intake & Abortions #”

  28. WWP

    [I agree with that – the libs are basically admitting parts of Australia are racist enough to alter voting simply on a name. ]

    The name in English means ‘beloved’ or perhaps ‘love’.

    But yes, the LNP fears being hoist on its own petard. This surely indicates that they don’t feel confident about the candidate. It’s also hard to see how this hue and cry can help them. Their own redneck audience have spent years decrying “PC” precisely so they can do racial slurs against non-westerners — especially ostensible Muslims or Arabs. On the other side, the ALP inclined will see this for the cynical con it is and if there are any bigots that aren’t tribally LNP, they will vote the other way.

  29. I bit the bullet today and joined the iPad people, mainly because everyone in my family is using facetime.

    Be interesting to see if I use the Android Nexus or the iPad most.

  30. David Marr chucking a few grenades around on the Drum.

    “The foundational rule (for media ownership reform) should be no more for Murdoch.”

    🙂

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