Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

As the shine comes off Labor’s recent polling surge in Newspoll and Nielsen, Essential Research has them finally moving into the lead.

As other polls appear to be heading back in the other direction, the slow-moving Essential Research has Labor finally breaking into a lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 over recent weeks. Labor has cracked 40%, up one point on last week, with the Coalition down two to 41%, the Greens steady on 8% and the Palmer United Party up a point to 4%. Other findings gauge concern about employment (55% express concern they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job in the next 12 months, up from 47% in August 2012), car industry assistance (46% think the government didn’t do enough to maintain car manufacturing in Australia, compared with 36% who think it did enough), the government’s approval of the coal port expansion at Abbot Point and related concerns about dredging and dumping at the Great Barrier Reef (66% disapprove of the decision, 41% strongly, with only 17% approving), and respondents’ level of interest in Schapelle Corby (71% professing little or no interest). Results courtesy of Bernard Keane at Crikey, with the full report to follow shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Last week ms fredex cancelled her art class cos the shade temperature was officially going to be 42 degrees.
    Then we had 75 mm of rain in less than 2 days, which was more than 40% of the total rainfall for the previous 14 months.
    She just got back from art – its only 17 degrees.
    And now its raining here – again.
    Weird.

  4. @BK/1202

    PvO doesn’t know what he’s talking about, and talking out of his arse.

    CommSec ‏@CommSec 4h

    $AUD fell after reading on wages data at 11:30, small bounce in last 15minutes ^TP (IRESS) #ausbiz pic.twitter.com/FnmjWbMZyV

  8. twaddle @ 1198

    Stop being stupid.

    Name the post which may have indicated to you of any supposed fragile mental state?

    Get over it, you’ve obviously got some problem.

  11. Mumbrella.com.au reports that everyone’s favourite columnist Mr A Bolt will return in a revamped and extended Bolt Report on Ch.10 from 2 March. Scheduled to run an hour it will also include a ‘media watch’ segment (no doubt focusing on the ABC!)

  12. [Scott Morrison once appeared quite distressed by the idea that asylum seekers might be caned or beaten.
    But that was just something Prime Minister Tony Abbott later called playing “politics pretty hard”, not soft-heartedness.]

  19. Seriously, not only what is happening to asylum seekers at Manus Island terrible – Abbott will not lose a single vote over it!

    *catch u later

  22. RD

    [A person like Bolt given more voice – just sums this country up perfectly.]

    Well a substantial tranche of it anyway. The current system settings amplify greatly its significance. You seem to be reflecting that.

  23. Guytaur @ 1213

    Agree. Obviously now the Feds have put the boot in for the ABC with this ‘efficiency review’ and ‘general moral outrage’ this gives Bolt carte blanch to go further no doubt with his master’s and mistress’ bidding. Bolt is not known for his subtlety so it would be interesting to see how far he is prepared to sink the boot

  26. [ Rex Douglas

    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    A person like Bolt given more voice – just sums this country up perfectly.
    ]

    ——————————————————-

    As my mate Phil Accio remarked :

    There is nothing more dangerous than the conscience of a bigot.

  27. Zoid

    Rabbott’s answer to everything is, ‘shit happens’.

    That may be overlooked when joe blow down the street uses it in conversation but the PM??

  30. Seriously thinking of going through the list of people I follow on twitter and getting rid of most of the Greens. They’re heading into batsh*t crazy mode.

    The one which had me raising eyebrows had wtte of ‘I’ve been ranting about this subject for fourteen years and nothing’s changed!’

    What’s the definition of madness again??

  34. “@political_alert: Review found that six incursions were “inadvertent and occurred as a result of miscalculation of Indonesian Maritime Boundaries” #auspol”

  35. Given the widespread lies and deceit from this Govt so far it’s hard to accept any departmental finding on the reported Manus incidents over the past few days.

    I simply don’t trust Morrison to ensure a safe accommodation at Manus.

    He should resign or be sacked and replaced by a more moderate Coalition MP.

  36. I especially like this bit by Neil Chenoweth in response to the Oz today

    [Like this February 19 2014 editorial, which starts quite brightly:

    Fairfax Media chief executive Greg Hywood needs to act now to salvage the reputation of The Australian Financial Review before it is completely shredded by the deranged output of senior reporter Neil Chenoweth]

  37. “@danielhurstbne: Customs/ADF report says #OSB policy: “Activities are only to be conducted outside 12 nautical miles from Indonesia’s archipelagic baseline””

    “@ABCNews24: Coming up: Greg Jennet will speak to @ScottMorrisonMP around 5.30pm AEDT. Watch #ABCNews24 to see the interview. #auspol”

  38. Morgan releases some attitudinal stuff.

    [When asked about the most important problem facing Australia, Economic & Financial issues are named by 39% of Australians (down 1% since October 2013). This includes the Economy, Economic problems and Interest Rates 12% (down 2%), Unemployment 11% (up 2%) – now at its equal record highest since this survey began in 2005, Poverty and the Gap between the rich and poor 4% (up 1%), Foreign Ownership and Investment 2% (up 1%) and Housing affordability 2% (unchanged). In this latest survey no respondents mentioned the Carbon Tax.

    A group of issues labelled Religion/ Immigration/ Human Rights are named by 16% (down 1%) of Australians including the related policy issues of Refugees and Asylum seeker problems 9% (unchanged) and Immigration/ Immigration policy 2% (down 1%). Also mentioned were Aboriginal Issues/ Health/ Rights 2% (up 1%). In addition, the issue of Politics and Leadership was named by 11% (up 3%) as the most important problem facing Australia.]

    Seems nobody really cares about Carbon Tax and Boats

  40. victoria

    I think Abbott is hanging om like grim death to avoid a reshuffle. We would be in danger of finding out how strong the ties that bind are.

  43. 1240

    If Abbott is forced to replace Nash over the chief of staff conflict of interest scandal, then that is les trouble for him because Nash is a Nat an thus cannot vote in Liberal leadership contests. Sacking a Liberal could upset things in the Liberal Party.

  44. Napthine has asked Abbott for funding to help Victoria out of its loss of job doldrums. Apparently there will be some announcements in a few weeks time. At this stage it appears to be funding for road projects. How inspiring

  45. victoria

    I agree totally. Also there needs to be a new Speaker. I would say Foreign Minister vut think those problems are Abbott’s not Bishop’s.

    I truly suspect now Bishop is doing a food job in the fact we are not at war.

  48. Victoria re Greens borough
    only 6 mls so far…but more on the way I hope
    At least it will dampen the tinder dry bushland here..always a problem in these dry north eastern suburbs…much drier than the Dandenongs in Summer

    one of our little annoyances…like Greensborugh Growler

  49. & More:
    http://rt.com/usa/tpp-fang-big-banks-577/

    “A controversial trade deal being touted by the White House is expected to give American corporations broad new authority if approved. Now according to newly released documents, big banks gave millions to the execs that are now orchestrating the agreement.”

    Richer get Richer – Poorer get Poorer.

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