Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

As the shine comes off Labor’s recent polling surge in Newspoll and Nielsen, Essential Research has them finally moving into the lead.

As other polls appear to be heading back in the other direction, the slow-moving Essential Research has Labor finally breaking into a lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 over recent weeks. Labor has cracked 40%, up one point on last week, with the Coalition down two to 41%, the Greens steady on 8% and the Palmer United Party up a point to 4%. Other findings gauge concern about employment (55% express concern they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job in the next 12 months, up from 47% in August 2012), car industry assistance (46% think the government didn’t do enough to maintain car manufacturing in Australia, compared with 36% who think it did enough), the government’s approval of the coal port expansion at Abbot Point and related concerns about dredging and dumping at the Great Barrier Reef (66% disapprove of the decision, 41% strongly, with only 17% approving), and respondents’ level of interest in Schapelle Corby (71% professing little or no interest). Results courtesy of Bernard Keane at Crikey, with the full report to follow shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [What Morrison should be doing is tendering his resignation. He has been an utter disaster]

    What are you saying, hes stopped the boats and killed a terrorist and roughed up a lot more terrorists.

  2. [What Morrison should be doing is tendering his resignation. He has been an utter disaster]

    What are you saying, hes stopped the boats and killed a terrorist and roughed up a lot more terrorists.

  3. [Morrison should ‘inadvertently’ resign
    ]

    Perhaps if we had the navy navigate him along the top of a cliff it would solve their main problem and ours.

  4. 1248
    deblonay
    [Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 5:33 pm | PERMALINK
    Victoria re Greens borough
    only 6 mls so far…but more on the way I hope
    At least it will dampen the tinder dry bushland here..always a problem in these dry north eastern suburbs…much drier than the Dandenongs in Summer

    one of our little annoyances…like Greensborugh Growler]

    Lol!

  5. [66 sharks slaughtered in WA… 49 of them undersize

    Shame on you Colin Barnett & Greg Hunt… shame !]

    what a hit rate, that Colin is a real winner.

  6. “@jonathonio: pretty remarkable that the Guardian launched in Australia in May 2013 and it’s already a better product than anything by Fairfax”

  7. [Psephos
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 4:20 pm | PERMALINK
    It’s raining in Melbourne. I’d forgotten what it looked like.]

    And I’ve forgotten what the ALP looked like, when I first joined. When you were in nappies.

    I keep getting emails from George Wright, asking me, fretfully, why I don’t become a fully-fledged financial member of the Labor Party – despite donating my time and effort before, during and after the 2013 election.

    And, I think to myself, why would I want to be a member of a party that houses Psephos. And his right-wing ideological dogma that flies in the face of his Jewish heritage.

    That’s not my Labor party.

    That’s a party that has been overtaken by hardline RWingers, with no ethical base.

    And, I’m very sad about Thomson’s guilty verdict.

    If I did indeed express an opinion about his guilt or innocence (and I don’t think I did) I really didn’t think he’d lie to Julia Gillard and therefore get re-endorsement for his candidature for Dobell in 2010.

    I still remember when Gillard came back from overseas and expelled Thomson from the ALP parliamentary party. She said at the time “a line had been crossed.”

    I thought, at the time, it was about Slipper, and about the msm’s constant barrage of allegations, but now I think she learned the truth about Thomson.

    And got rid of him.

    As I said the other day, I did think there was some merit in the Malaysian solution, but I certainly do not think there is any merit at all in Nauru and Manus.

    If only Rudd had leant on the rostrum and told Australia that we had to be kind towards refugees, after all one of the reasons why we won the 2007 election was because of our humanity towards those who were fleeing wars that we were a part of, and that we were big-hearted enough to take their refugees.

    Then he could have gotten away with his Big Australia vision. 50 million, no less.

    Instead, he decided to take on Indonesia with the Oceanic Viking stuff, and stuffed it for our renowned reputation for humanitarianism, and his own big vision.

    What a waste.

    And here we have the so-called Christians, doyens of the Liberal Party, feeding refugees to the lions. And counting on the likes of Psephos in Labor, and the ignorant who’ve voted for the LNP, to embrace the viciousness meted out to the very people who need our help.

  8. So leaving aside Hitler analogies for the moment, what do we know about what has happened at Manus?

    * The people there entered Australian waters by boat without authorisation, knowing quite well they were doing so in opposition to Australia’s wishes.
    * In accordance with the policy announced by Rudd, they were detained and then transferred to PNG.
    * They were processed on Manus. Those who were judged to be refugees were advised they would be settled in PNG.
    * Those who were judged not to be refugees were advised they would stay on Manus until they either returned whence they came or found a third country willing to take them.
    * This was also in accord with the policy Rudd announced. Everyone who voted Labor in September voted for this policy and this process.
    * The detainees, having paid up to $20,000 in expectation of an Australian visa, not surprisingly didn’t like any of this advice. So, displaying their usual sense of outraged entitlement, they staged a riot in which they destroyed much of the facility (paid for by Australian taxpayers), used pieces of timber to attack staff, and abused and insulted PNG police. Some staged a breakout but were recaptured – which presumably saved them from an unpleasant fate in the wilds of Manus.
    * So far so predictable. At this point things went off the rails. The G4S PNG security unit seems to have run amok in the centre, attacking the detainees with machetes and iron bars, and apparently also firearms. One was killed and many injured. (I’m not clear if they’re PNG police or private security)

    So what exactly is Morrison to be held accountable for?

    * It was Rudd’s decision to send unauthorised arrivals to Manus, and so far as I know that is still Labor policy. Morrison is simply carrying out that policy. If Labor had won the election, would we now be comparing Tony Burke to Hitler?
    * It was quite predictable that the detainees would riot and destroy the centre every so often as they realised they has wasted their money and were not going to get to Australia. That is their standard tactic – a very ill-advised one, as “refugee advocates” should tell them but probably won’t.
    * PNG is a sovereign state and Australia does not and cannot have operational control over their police. If GS4 is a PNG police unit, it is up to the PNG government to control their behaviour, and they should do so.
    * If GS4 is a private security outfit hired by Australia, that would be a different matter. Perhaps someone knows the answer to that.
    * Morrison certainly has a duty to explain exactly what happened at Manus and what role Australia officials, police or security staff played in these events.

  9. [66 sharks slaughtered in WA… 49 of them undersize

    Shame on you Colin Barnett & Greg Hunt… shame !]

    My wife works, in Australia, for a Canadian company. One of her colleagues rang from Canada the other day to verify that we were actually killing Great White Sharks. A worker in the Canadian office had mentioned the story, and the majority over there didn’t believe it. When informed it was true, they were gobsmacked.

  10. @kimogrady1: So will we be naming and prosecuting these inept vessel commanders who lack basic nav skills? Investigate how they even got command?

  11. @Psephos/1267

    Your forgetting that Labor was pulled into detention Center mess when media and Coalition Party banked on 24/7 about boat arrivals, now you get same product that Howard had.

    The conclusion: Detention Centers don’t work.

    G4S is hired by Australian Goverment by Australian Tax Payers.

    https://newmatilda.com/2014/02/19/local-guards-turn-manus-detainees

    “Multiple sources have now alleged that local Papua New Guinean G4S staff, contracted by Australia, were involved in the attack on Manus Island detention centre on Monday night.”

  12. Add Safari to the list of browsers that is having trouble with Crikey.

    Hard to log in, getting logged out at random, reloading pages is a very tedious and dodgy exercise, etc.

    Only having trouble with the Crikey site, everywhere else is working fine.

  13. Cooking hamburgers for the family tonight.

    As such, it would be remiss of me not to point out that, when preparing a hamburger, the star of the show must always be the onion, which should, in the fashion of the French, be covered and baked in olive oil and butter, until translucent, then slowly sautéed until it becomes a gooey, caramelised mess.

    This is of course a matter highly relevant to Australian politics.

  14. [Abc radio PM saying detainees were verbally taunting G4S guards so some of the guards attacked them]

    Oh for goodness sake, how friggin childish but then…..

    If you read the rants these guards made on FB, it was clear they were not fit for their positions..

  15. Morrison is responsible for maintaining a non-violent accommodation for asylum seekers while processing is undertaken.

    It’s as simple as that.

    If he can’t ensure that or have the confidence of Australians to do that he should resign or be sacked.

  16. Just Me@1274

    Add Safari to the list of browsers that is having trouble with Crikey.

    Hard to log in, getting logged out at random, reloading pages is a very tedious and dodgy exercise, etc.

    Only having trouble with the Crikey site, everywhere else is working fine.

    Me too, chrome. Can we add the 6 o’clock blues to the 8 o’clock problem?

  17. If Australian engaged security people attacked refugees without proper reason the Australia Government has to seriously review if we want to retain a processing centre in PNG. Verbal provocation is no excuse to physical abuse refugees.

    If we are to retain the PNG processing centre then we have to take more responsibility for the recruitment and management of the security personnel.

  18. [Morrison is responsible for maintaining a non-violent accommodation for asylum seekers while processing is undertaken.]

    Yes I agree with that. But if the detainees choose to riot, destroy facilities and attack staff, those in charge of the facility are entitled, and in fact required, to use an appropriate level of force to prevent them doing so and restore order. It appears to me in this case that the level of force used was excessive, but that is only an impression gained from media reports. I wasn’t there and neither were any of you.

  19. Psephos
    [It was Rudd’s decision to send unauthorised arrivals to Manus, and so far as I know that is still Labor policy. Morrison is simply carrying out that policy. If Labor had won the election, would we now be comparing Tony Burke to Hitler?]
    You’re not being consistent. You’ve previously argued that – despite a continuation of Labor policy – the boats appeared to stop on Abbott’s watch and so he will get the credit for it. Now you’re arguing that they can’t take the blame for any problems that occur on their watch because it’s a continuation of Labor policy. You can’t have it both ways.

    Note that I’m not arguing that the Coalition will cop flak over recent events. They may not, but that will be for other reasons. However, given that it’s their choice to continue (or not) with Labor policy, the current situation is also a reflection of their judgement, not just Labor’s.

  20. [If GS4 is a private security outfit hired by Australia, that would be a different matter. Perhaps someone knows the answer to that.]

    [G4S plc (formerly Group 4 Securicor) is a British multinational security services company headquartered in Crawley, United Kingdom. It is the world’s largest security company measured by revenues and has operations in around 125 countries. With over 620,000 employees, it is the world’s third-largest private sector employer. G4S was founded in 2004 by the merger of the UK-based Securicor plc with the Denmark-based Group 4 Falck.

    G4S has a primary listing on the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of the FTSE 100 Index. It has a secondary listing on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange.]

    Not an answer but it seems there may be two G4S outfits at work, one working for Australia, the other for PNG. = Messy.

  21. davidwh@1280

    If Australian engaged security people attacked refugees without proper reason the Australia Government has to seriously review if we want to retain a processing centre in PNG. Verbal provocation is no excuse to physical abuse refugees.

    If we are to retain the PNG processing centre then we have to take more responsibility for the recruitment and management of the security personnel.

    Unless the security personnel are recruited and managed by PNG.

  22. Don in that case we may still have a problem if we are unable to ensure the fair safety of people we send there. As Rua said the current arrangements seem messy.

  23. Psephos
    [If Labor had won the election, would we now be comparing Tony Burke to Hitler?]
    This, by the way, is an argument over rusted-on-ness. If I were you, I would be careful not to convince people that they had indeed been following Labor blindly and instead flatter them that their good judgement had simply coincided with the similarly good judgement of Labor :P.

  24. [You’re not being consistent. You’ve previously argued that – despite a continuation of Labor policy – the boats appeared to stop on Abbott’s watch and so he will get the credit for it. Now you’re arguing that they can’t take the blame for any problems that occur on their watch because it’s a continuation of Labor policy. You can’t have it both ways.]

    You’re not comparing like with like. Previously I was talking about who gets political credit for the boats stopping (if they have indeed stopped). That’s just a matter of politics. Here we are talking about who is responsible for what has happened at Manus, which is a different thing altogether. And I didn’t say Morrison should not be held responsible – I pointed out that this riot was the predictable consequence of the policy which Rudd announced last year. Those who opposed that policy at the time and voted Green are entitled to be critical. Those who supported the policy and voted Labor (such as me) are not.

  25. Psephos

    What a load of Certifiable Rubbish and Phobias!

    Management of Manus Island is Morrison’s responsibility. If it had gone pear shape under Labor then it would have been just as bad.

  26. [Add Safari to the list of browsers that is having trouble with Crikey.]

    Forgot to mention it has been going on for a couple of days now. Clearing cache, etc, doesn’t fix it.

  27. Ok, Dee.

    Psephos,

    The problem is, what may or may not be “excessive force” in PNG is likely to be quite different to the legal standard here in Australia. It then becomes a question of our obligations to these people. It’s highly problematic, if you care about the implications.

  28. Of course the real blame for all these events rests with those who thought they could buy their way into Australia, knowing full well, as they did, that they were not entitled to come here. It also lies with those who encouraged them to do so, such as the ASRC and similar “refugee advocates.”

  29. I guess O’Neill is in no position to do anything, if he introduced a refugee visa class it may assist things, but PNG politics is very unstable to say the least.

    The 8 year requirement for residency is making people crazy in equatorial heat and humidity.

  30. Psephos
    [And I didn’t say Morrison should not be held responsible – I pointed out that this riot was the predictable consequence of the policy which Rudd announced last year. ]
    Fair enough.

    [Those who opposed that policy at the time and voted Green are entitled to be critical. Those who supported the policy and voted Labor (such as me) are not.]
    Unless they had simply been naive and believed such a thing could be done with little consequence.

    Perhaps now they will realise that we are simply exchanging one problem for another and pushing those problems out to others.

  31. [Of course the real blame for all these events rests with those who thought they could buy their way into Australia, knowing full well, as they did, that they were not entitled to come here. It also lies with those who encouraged them to do so, such as the ASRC and similar “refugee advocates.”]

    Bit harsh. Actually, way too harsh.

    Accepting your view that arrivals must stop, we still, as a civilised nation, have to maintain some standards. Let’s presume, for argument, that the response of PNG in this matter was brutal and unjustified. Surely that would stand outside even the hardest of hardline Australian policies. Wouldn’t it? I think even Morrison would genuinely agree.

  32. Psephos @ 1295
    The refugees are responsible for their decisions and we for ours. Responsibility and blame are not shifted around however you please, nor does one’s blame/responsibility negate another’s.

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