Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  4. “@latikambourke: Immigration Minister Scott Morrison says no asylum seeker Australia has sent to Manus Island has yet been found to be a refugee. @abcnews”

    Begs the question how many processed?

  5. Stephen mayne’s take on the Murdoch tax windfall

    [Stephen Mayne @MayneReport
    Follow
    Forget SPC and car companies, the Murdoch interests are the biggest rent-seekers in OZ. ACT govt took ’em on & won: http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/02/17/did-news-corp-shareholders-pay-a-77m-murdoch-family-tax-bill/ …
    10:24 AM – 17 Feb 2014
    Did News Corp shareholders pay a $77m Murdoch family tax bill? –
    So, the Murdoch interests have shelled out $77 million in a remarkable tax avoidance settlement with the ACT government and the Murdoch press is still yet to report a word of it.]

  6. “@joeobrien24: Opposn to be briefed tomorrow afternoon on report about Aust Navy Ships straying inton Indon waters, says Morrison. @ABCNews24”

  8. Quite clearly, the ALP have made another huge blunder in electing Bill Shorten as leader.

    First blunder was not expelling Kevin Rudd early on when it was clear he was acting in a treasonous fashion and causing division in the party.

    Second blunder was the constant navel-gazing and taking their eye of the ball (defeating the Conservative/Green cartel).

    Third blunder was electing an ineffective communicator as leader and being unable to replace him in the near future because of Rudds ridiculous new rules.

    The ALP have no-one to blame but themselves as hey sit back and watch the far right conservative movement in this country transform Australia from being a fair minded country to a uncaring self-interest type country.

  9. guytaur

    if I was a drought stricken farmer, I’d be very worried reading that article.

    Abbott’s basically saying that there’s nothing unusual about this and farmers should have been prepared.

  10. Re R.I in Schools.________Religious ideas make men and women deny all logic and undertake silly and demening rituals

    They are a survival of an uneducated and superstitious past,of people wanting to assuage the fear of death…because all religions are all about death and the hope of life after death…a common thread

    My cat doesn’t know about death,and is happily agnostic

    The Principal of the Vic school in question ,as are many otherts,…is making a great stand for secular education

    Howard gave funds for the chaplains …,though I never saw him as a churchgoer…. the “Chaplains”..were .all part of his conservative agenda…and to her shame Gillard continued and extended that scheme..and she is an agnostic…but in many ways she was no radical and was conservative on many issues…and on no use on this one at all….

    The Chaplains are mainly…in Vic anyway…from Access Ministeries.. an offshot of a stupid US fundamentalist crew…and as the school principal showed are pretty low level in regards teaching standards and general basic un derstamding of education themselves

    They may well do themselves much harm over this matter

    I have a very bright grand-daughter ,who to our surprise went to the RI classes at her High School for a time given by a hapless religious tutor
    She was honing her agnostic views she said and delighting her classmates with her logic skills…eventually she gave it up,but it’s set her up for life as a debater and an agnostic…one of my sons…her uncle …was similary minded when a High School pupil…and when they get going make a formidable tean…uncle and neice

  11. [Abbott’s basically saying that there’s nothing unusual about this and farmers should have been prepared.]

    Yeah, and it rained, just in time for his sudden visit to the Bush to see the effects of drought.

    I wouldn’t put it past him to have had the BOM forecasts scanned and then turn up just as the “drought” “breaks”.No biggy. Land of droughts and flooding rains etc.

    Dorothea MacKellar set it all out a century ago. What would climate scientists know? They’re mostly European, anyway, and we all know what happened to Europe during the GFC. GFC? What GFC? It was a Northern Hemisphere thing, just like global warming, which of course exists but, as faras we can tell, has absolutely no effects on climate, weather, the economy or human civilization.

    Nice to know it exists, though. Just doesn’t mean anything, that’sall.

    Gotta go fellas. There are some sick that need healing. Peta’s arranged it all.

    Whoosh!

    Gone.

  13. Our Prime Minister likes to tuck in when travelling…

    [Although Mr Abbott has imposed austere conditions on his ministers, he has allowed himself some luxuries.

    Documents obtained by The West Australian reveal Mr Abbott has ordered the RAAF to stock his jet with liqueurs such as Drambuie, Baileys and Benedictine. He insists on a hot breakfast of bacon and eggs but cannot abide baked beans.

    The catering “rider” for Mr Abbott shows yoghurt is also among Mr Abbott’s dislikes, with RAAF staff banned from serving yogurt in “bulk service”.

    He drinks Earl Grey tea with skim milk and two sugars and prefers a coffee that has one shot of mocha and half a hot chocolate sachet with milk frothed.

    “Scones, jam and cream must be ordered on every flight,” the RAAF 34 Squadron catering profile for Mr Abbott reads.

    ]

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/21475184/abbott-orders-travel-economy/

  14. Abbott gets away with his lies and distortions because there isn’t an effective Opposition communicator.
    Tragic what’s happening…

  15. For cricket tragics, NZ’s Watling and McCullum are 6 runs shy of the highest 6th wicket partnership in Test cricket. They’ve put on 345 against India!

  19. Anti-vax supporters may be hitting the wrong button.

    [Leading chemical experts are calling for a radical overhaul of chemical regulation to protect children from everyday toxins that may be causing a global ”silent epidemic” of brain development disorders such as autism, dyslexia and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder.

    A review published in The Lancet Neurology on Saturday said current regulations were inadequate to safeguard foetuses and children from potentially hazardous chemicals found in the environment and everyday items such as clothing, furniture and toys.

    Philippe Grandjean from Harvard School of Public Health in Boston and Philip Landrigan from Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York said that, in the past seven years, the number of recognised chemical causes of neurodevelopmental disorders doubled from six to 12.

    These include lead, arsenic, pesticides such as DDT, solvents, methylmercury that is found in some fish, flame retardants that are often added to plastics and textiles, and manganese – a commonly mined metal that can get into drinking water.

    The list also controversially includes fluoride, a mineral found in water, plants and toothpaste.

    Many health authorities including the World Health Organisation and Australian governments say low levels of fluoride in drinking water is safe and protects teeth against decay, but Dr Grandjean and Dr Landrigan said a meta-analysis of 27 studies, mainly from China, had found children in areas with high levels of fluoride in water had significantly lower IQ scores than those living in low-level fluoride areas.

    Dr Grandjean and Dr Landrigan said that, since 2006, the number of chemicals known to damage the human brain more generally, but that are not regulated to protect children’s health, had increased from 202 to 214.

    Of the newly identified toxins, pesticides constitute the largest group. The pair said this could be the tip of the iceberg because the vast majority of the more than 80,000 industrial chemicals widely used in the United States have never been tested for their toxic effects on the developing foetus or child.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/study-finds-toxic-chemicals-linked-to-autism-adhd-20140215-32snz.html#ixzz2tXlLoJVH

  20. A good example is Abbotts ease in re-writing history re ‘the boats’.

    It was the Indonesian policy change of no-visas-on-arrival and the ALP policy change of no visa at all for boat people that has slowed the people smuggling trade.

    The ease at which Abbotts lies and distortions take hold is truly gobsmacking. Utterly woeful communication from the ALP.

  23. Re re copnservative/Greens cartel
    _____________
    No such thing …at the last elctions….
    Over 25 Labot MPs were saved by the Greens … like Danby in Melb Ports who was well behind on the primaries but was saved by the Green Prefs….and he was bitterly critical of the Greens because of their policies on the Palestinians …Danby being a rabid zionist (in his own electoreate some call him the Memebr for Tel Aviv.)..an Israel Firsters if ever there was one )…but the Greens saved him anyway….

  24. The ALP need to have a few old, white men decide the leader over cigars and brandy in a NSW club, because the party had the indignity of having to wait a couple of weeks nowhere near an election, to find out its leader last time!!1!

  25. BB

    I said yesterday that it was well known early last week there was a high probability of rain this weekend. There is no doubt in my mind that abbott’s visit was brought on the take advantage of the photo ops. Guaranteed front page, prominent on TV.

  26. Abbott dispenses the wisdom he learned during his pollie pedalling. But wait – there’s more…

    [“I’d learnt some years ago on my Pollie Pedal bike ride that wild dogs were a difficulty in the high country of Victoria, but I now discover that this is a much more widespread problem,” Abbott told ABC radio on Monday morning.

    “And much as we love our kangaroos – they’re on our coat of arms, they’re in a sense a national symbol – at times like this, in very large numbers, the kangaroos are a real difficulty because they’re eating the feed that would otherwise be going to the sheep or cattle.”]

  29. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 11m

    At Together union’s HQ – no sign of Bleijie’s SWAT team. Will ninja it in through the 3rd floor window just in case

  30. deblonay

    given that people who vote for the Greens generally decide their own preference allocations, ‘the Greens’ didn’t save those MPs, their constituents did.

    And, if the Greens didn’t exist, those people would have (in the vast majority of cases) have voted for Labor directly.

    It’s simply silly to say ‘the Greens saved X’. If ‘the Greens’ had really been interested in ‘saving’ those Labor MPs, they wouldn’t have stood a candidate in those electorates themselves.

    “The Greens diverted votes from Danby which he got back on preferences” is a more factual way of putting it.

  31. So far we can gather that:

    * Abbott wants to dine whine and dine.
    * Coalition on dodgy contracts to sell Assets.
    * We get crap internet, along with ISP Filter, and possible jail time.
    * TPP Negotiations is bad.

    Spending all this money, and claims that we have no money.

  32. I think most Greens regard Labor as the lesser of two evils and direct their preferences accordingly. Labor does after all believe that money doesn’t trump everything. Green voters who direct their preferences to the Liberals have always been a bit of a mystery to me. Some are no doubt simply uninformed. A few may be voting on the merits of individual candidates without regard to party affiliations. Others may be people who are socially liberal and economically conservative, who for example, want gay marriage legalised and unions nobbled.

  33. Rex Douglas

    Stop carrying on about leadership, will you?

    Playing right into the MSM agenda.

    Shorten deserves time to prove himself in the job, and the first year in Opposition after defeat is always a difficult one.

    As to a change in leadership, if it was considered necessary, the rules don’t require three years before a change.

    If the Leader stands down, there is an automatic ballot take place.

    Stop being negative.

    Stop spitting the dummy.

    And, oh, stop your Rudd bashing whenever you think there is a chance.

  34. Rex Douglas.

    There is any point in debating anything with someone who claims the existence of a “Coalition-Green cartel”. But what the heck.

    I think Shorten is quite an effective communicator and is doing just fine in getting his message across to swinging voters, which is the only group that matters.

    I suspect that most of the Labor supporters who say they want to see a Labor “expose Abbott’s lies” or “take the fight up to the Libs” is looking for a Keating/Albo type of parliamentary attack dog. Such politicians are always enormously popular with their own side, but have no impact – or, quite often, a negative impact – on swinging voters.

    If you take an average of all polls since Xmas (and I’m sure William will confirm this when he updates his BludgerTrack soon) it’s running about 50/50 at the moment. If I were a Labor apparatchik, I’d think that was a tremendous result under the circumstances.

    Shorten will do fine for now. He has restored Labor’s position and could conceivably snatch a victory in 2016: although history would say he almost certainly won’t. I don’t see him as the person to lead Labor back into office: but then I’m struggling to discern who that might be. Certainly not Albo, probably not Tanya: perhaps Chris Bowen or Jason Clare.

    The one thing I will slightly agree with you about is that Rudd’s so-called reforms to Caucus rules are something of a two-edged sword. They will certainly hinder the sort of undermining campaign undertaken by Rudd in 2012-13 (but, ironically, not the coup against Rudd of 2010). But they also mean that it will be extremely difficult to get rid of a leader who is performing poorly: eg, Simon Crean would have survived in 2003 (but, then again, that would have stopped Latham becoming leader, which would have been a good thing).

  35. Kon Karapanagiotidis ‏@Kon__K Feb 16
    Another #asylum seeker commits suicide rather than face being returned to Eritrea by Australian government http://overland.org.au/2014/02/another-black-death-in-footscray/ … #auspol
    Reply Retweeted Favorite More View summary
    Cosmic Gypsy ‏@christnagavier 17m
    @Kon__K @randlight Did u notice @ABC refer to them as ‘transferees’ not refugees? Also they just said the escapee’s were ROUNDED up! Disgust

    Almost like the Asylum Seekers are sub human now

  36. When John Kerry comes out and publicly likens AGW to that of Terrorism, Abbott, and his “climate change/scrap carbon pricing” stance looks increasingly isolated.
    The time is rapidly arriving when axing carbon pricing will make Australia look incredibly selfish and stupid.

    Abbott has zero credibility over this.

  37. “@Robitup: Federal environment minister has commented that the cost impact on electricity bills by renewables only 3% – “this is not trivial” Huh!”

  38. Did you see Marles moments ago – my god what was that ??

    With barely literate types like Marles, Champion, Rishworth et al as spokespeople… well……..

  39. Abbott’s continued denial that climate change is a real & present danger is reason enough for him to be removed from office. Stuff all the economic arguments, an economy can be fixed in a relatively short time span. A ruined planet can never be repaired.

    Everyday I remind my children that Mr Abbott is helping destroy their world.

  40. [The ALP have no-one to blame but themselves as hey sit back and watch the far right conservative movement in this country transform Australia from being a fair minded country to a uncaring self-interest type country.]

    And what have you done Rex?

  41. Rex Douglas

    For heavens sake go and have a stiff drink or something (it is after midday :grin:)and stop bellyaching , try and help the ALP insteading of trashing it

  42. [For heavens sake go and have a stiff drink or something (it is after midday 😀 )and stop bellyaching , try and help the ALP insteading of trashing it]

    Agreed, mari. Nut up or shut up.

  45. Fran,

    we should be careful in judging old fashioned ways in isolation as misogynistic.Gender power balances in traditional cultures is not as straight forward as they seem. The custom I referred to tells the groom that the mother-in-law has power and dont forget it. However, traditional culture gets warped in meaning when disrupted (immigrants, civil war, globalisation)…the power balance becomes unbalanced.

    I was always fascinated by the powerplays of my immigrant grandparents.

    As for antiquated customs – I got married (in a church) against our better judgement. Cant remember why we decided to do it; we are not religious and were happy being defacto. But it was nice….awkward, but nice.

  48. zoomster

    Agree with you about the farmers should be worried.

    As aside when I see your nickname for some reason I think Mazda. 🙂

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