Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  3. Fran #1286 I could have accepted a not guilty verdict if Thomson had got off on some technicality such as the prosecutor messing up the charges. However it would have been much harder to accept that the behaviour that went on in the HSU was found to be legal.

  4. jeffemu

    [I think Ms Jackson will make Thomson look like a choirboy if she ever has the opportunity to tell all about her HSU income and expenditure]

    I don’t know and as odious as her politics seem to be, Ms Jackson too deserves the presumption of innocence. I’d like to see these matters properly investigated so that the HSU really can claim to be entirely above board.

  5. [The fact that a Liberal Senator from SA was brought to court for shop-lifting (theft) at around the same time was put down to the stress of the job and was basically hit by a tap on the wrist is in stark contrast.]

    FFS. First her offence was trivial by comparison, second she was suffering from a mental illness, and third she acknowledged the offence and resigned from the Senate. I hate to be in the position of defending Liberals, but that really is an idiotic post.

  6. [Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC ·2 mins
    It has been an enormous news day and it
    Is only noon]

    apparently a looong judgement by the Court of Disputed Returns..

  8. deblonay @ 1283

    Back to your bat-cave you terrorist-loving Jew-hating moron.

    William: I still had this “free-kick” on deblonay’s anti-semitic a**e owing from months back you’ll recall and I think you were going to close him down if he re-started his Jew-hate rants. When I look through his recent posts while I’ve been away little seems to have changed and he’s unrepentant and a day or two back was also into racial slurs calling insurance fire fraud “Jewish lightening”. He’s a nice piece of work but he only hates Zionists remember (ie 99% of Jews)… and he brought it up, not me.

  10. Well well, Thomson is guilty. Looks like I was right – and definitely right to believe we shouldn’t be running to defend him.

    I wonder if the grouchy, loud-mouthed hacks on here will learn a lesson from this that if it smells like shit it probably is shit, and not everything is a massive conspiracy to bring down the pure-at-heart ALP.

  12. @Psephos/1305

    Explain the lack of judgement of Politicians like Tony Abbott used Tax Payer Money for his private stuff?

    This is why it sickens me that one side get’s all the shit.

  13. [Retweeted by Shane Bazzi
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust ·32 secs
    BREAKING NEWS: The high court rules #WAsenate vote was invalid and orders a fresh Senate election.]

  15. Not sure where the six guilty transactions comes from? The magistrate refers to perhaps six types of offences but also refers to plurals withing those offences. I think the six transactions claim may be incorrect.

  17. The difference between the Pollie rorts from very early in this government’s time and Thomson appear to be where the money came from.

    Tax payer for the conservatives and union members for Thomson.

    Neither provide a pretty picture and it is a point of debate whether it is more heinous to use unions funds for sexual pleasure, or tax payer funds to attend football matches, private weddings and check out some property issues.

    No moral high ground for anyone I would have thought?

  18. [Thomson being found guilty will help Abbotts spin about the RC.]

    So it should. I am actually in the mindset that some sort of external investigation should go ahead. As long as it’s not just for political point-scoring, is substantive and is objective.

  19. A fresh WA senate election gives the ALP a massive opportunity to run a campaign focusing on Coalition deceit, lies and UNFAIRNESS.

    The leadership really needs to step up NOW.

  20. For Labor Thomson decision today is great timing.

    WA election.
    AFP raiding 7 and New Idea
    Asylum Seeker death

    Thomson is a footnote to that

  22. [Explain the lack of judgement of Politicians like Tony Abbott used Tax Payer Money for his private stuff?]

    Thomson’s actions were not a lack of judgement, or an careless misuse of entitlement, or even deliberate misuse of taxpayers’ money. They were calculated and cold-blooded theft of a large amount of money, paid as union dues by working-class people who expected their union to act in their interests.

  24. Fran 1304
    [I’d like to see these matters properly investigated so that the HSU really can claim to be entirely above board.]

    Don’t worry there will be.
    There is a RC that will focus the unions.

  25. [High Court orders fresh WA Senate election.]

    Oh yay.

    So how soon? I assume the minimal constitutional process still applies, so by my calculations, the soonest it can be held is 29 March. And I imagine you don’t want to leave it much later.

  28. Trouble with the politicians travel claims is that under the current guidelines it is basically legal rorting. If you get caught then you get to repay the amounts.

  30. P@1305

    There you go again Oh Great Arbiter on PB.

    While you have some useful things to say here, your pomposity is a sight to behold.

    And “FFS”, if you have to drop to this “idiotic” language, why don’t you start up a blog of your own so your own right-wing, DLP certitudes can gain a wider audience.

    I don’t now which is worse, the late and lamented – in the sin-bin S, or your lofty and know-it-all (you think) supercilious contributions.

    You do not have the sole font of wisdom, wit or knowledge here, though I suppose you like to think so.

  34. @Psephos/1322

    Of course, I never said that Thompson should have used, since being a member of a union has privileges, and thus those were broken.

    We also have things like Former Telstra board members have shares in Telstra, who are on NBN Board – creating conflict of interest (Justin Milne).

  35. [You are predicting a date before the budget?]

    I would assume the WA election would have to be concluded by 1 July. The Budget may be smack bang in the middle.

  38. [Not sure where the six guilty transactions comes from? The magistrate refers to perhaps six types of offences but also refers to plurals withing those offences. I think the six transactions claim may be incorrect.]

    David all I can find about numbers is this

    [Mr Rozencwajg dismissed 13 charges relating to Mr Thomson charging pornographic movies to his hotel room, paid for by the HSU, as he said he could not be satisfied Mr Thomson had been dishonest about his conduct.]

    So we know 13 charges have been dropped out of 140 odd.

  41. Geoff I think that was from an article in the Australian so it will be discounted as a source here on PB. 🙂 Having said that it certainly seems from the ruling that more charges were upheld than were dismissed. As I said I’m not sure where the six transactions claim came from as I can’t see any reference to that claim anywhere.

  43. Mick@1339

    Well, if that is as good as your opinion gets, most of us here have you pretty well sorted out.

    Speaks highly of both of you I guess…something about ‘as much as I hate supporting the Liberals….blah blah…” and now you joining the cheer squad.

    I am surprised you don’t start a fan club for each other.

  46. [We also have things like ] etc etc etc

    Yes but we don’t excuse A by pointing to B.

    Besides which, as an ALP member, I expect a higher standard of conduct from union officials and Labor MPs than I expect from Tony Abbott, Mary-Jo Fisher, business executives or other low-lifes. I expect them to steal and cheat and lie, because that’s what people like that always do. I DON’T expect Labor people to steal money from their own supporters, and when they do I get VERY ANGRY about it, because they are betraying me, betraying all Labor voters and union members, and betraying the values we and they are supposed to be upholding. I guess that’s very “right-wing and DLP-ish” of me. *expectorates*

  47. Monster news day

    WA Senate election
    Ch 7 and New Idea Corby raid
    Manus riot and death
    Thomson guilty

    Great day to rush out a few unpopular policies.

  50. A WTF moment.

    [SEVEN’S commercial director Bruce McWilliam says a senior Abbott Government minister has called him to apologise for the raid at his network this morning.

    He is furious more than 20 AFP officers barged into the offices of Channel Seven at Pyrmont and New Idea to examine their paperwork and correspondence with the Corby family.]

    Which Minister called and what was he apologising for, get your grubby mitts off the AFP.

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