Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  3. Tricot
    huh?
    [as much as I hate supporting the Liberals..]
    Where have I ever said that? At this juncture I’m very happy supporting the Libs and can’t see a reason not to even though there are some policies better than others, eg Tony can keep his PPL scheme. Psephos, who certainly doesn’t need me to defend/support him, is a devoted Labor supporter, however that doesn’t mean blindly accepting and supporting every policy twist and turn like the brainless here.

  4. [@Psephos/1346

    Of course, but with power comes responsibility.]

    I’m not disputing that, I’m disputing the validity of this tactic of excusing Craig Thomson by saying, oh look at Al Capone over there, he’s much worse.

  6. forget all the newswire flappery today, the WA Senate decision is the biggest news.

    The senate numbers from 1 July 2014 as they now sit are:

    LNP 30
    ALP 23
    GRN 10
    OTH 7 (PUPx2+MOT, XEN, DLP, LDP, FFS)
    TOT 70

    with 6 to come from WA. If ALP/GRN can claw back a 3-3 result, it will mean

    LNP 33
    ALP 25
    GRN 11
    OTH 7 (PUPx2+MOT, XEN, DLP, LDP, FFS)
    TOT 76

    Which leaves ALP/GRN needing 2 of the OTHERs to block, and LNP needing 6 of the OTHERs to pass anything.

  8. mikehilliard

    [My thoughts as well. Less than Abbott’s poli pedal rort I imagine]
    Heard on the radio while out for a drive this morning a classic from Abbott. “Nobody is entitled to a free ride on taxpayers money”. Nearly ran off the road after heard bikerorts say that.

  9. ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, February 18, 2014 at 11:45 am | PERMALINK
    Magistrate Charlie Rozencwajg found he was guilty of six charges of using Health Services Union credit cards.

    6 out of 145.

    I am trying to find a link is there one yet please

  11. I’m waiting for Independent Australia to tell us that Thomson is still innocent and there will be an appeal against this gross miscarriage if justice.

  12. holy smokes! WA senate rerun!

    Juicy.

    Who is cashed up? Who is willing to spend? who will be donating heavily over the next few months?

  13. Madoff got 150 years for corporate crime so corporate criminals do get caught at times and pay the price. Where a RC is useful is in a situation where normal investigation and prosecution powers fail particularly in areas like organised crime and protection rackets. Anywhere were there are clearly danger and threats to people who would otherwise report illegal behaviour.

    I don’t believe we have seen enough evidence of organised crime and protection rackets in unions to warrant a RC however we probably do need to beef up the corporate governance and reporting requirements to make it more clear that the type of behaviour will not be permitted.

  14. One to keep an eye out for. Typhoid Mary Obeid could rack up quite a tally of “victims”.

    [
    THREE NSW Liberals MPs, including former Cabinet member Chris Hartcher are to be investigated by the Independent Commission against Corruption to find out if they solicited money in return for MPs doing favours.

    It will also hold a separate inquiry into Australian Water Holdings, a company associated with Eddie Obeid which gained a massive contract from Sydney Water.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/icac-to-investigate-3-liberal-mps-including-chris-hartcher/story-e6frgczx-1226830426836#

  17. Great Line

    What an opportunity. Federal politics to be seen not through Western Sydney but instead through Western Australia.

    Now Antony Green on

  18. Will Thomson potentially do time? It’s an important verdict and needed to be prosecuted, but I can’t see him getting anything more than a suspended sentence, however I’m not a lawyer (not in the eyes of the State anyway). Thomson strikes me as capable of being in denial forever, something like Gittany, but very different crimes. I thought he may be in danger from self-harm at one stage but I think being in denial is a very strong antidote against that.

  24. zoidlord Japan is not and has never been a good example of good corporate governance at any level. The current PM is trying to do something about that however I fear he will meet a sad fate as a result.

  26. lefty e
    [Manus Island has to be shut down.]
    Maybe; what’s left then: Nauru, and maybe now FIJI!!! Or maybe there’ll be too few to worry about as the boats seem to have stopped.

  27. Just got a call from someone at my bank who had obviously seen that I had a decent sum sitting in a bank account and wanted to chat with me about interest rates, etc etc. God, that’s annoying. You park your money with them, then they try to leverage that to sell you investment services you definitely won’t need.

  28. P
    [Madoff got 150 years for corporate crime

    Legal experts says he is unlikely to serve the full sentence.]

    What, no parole after 2/3 served as in Indonesia?

  30. guytaur

    We’re just way way west Western Sydney 🙂 AS and BOATS !! have been causing “panic” and revving up red neck radio since at least the mid 1980’s

  33. Ok, now that Thompson has actually been found guilty its open season to hang crap on him. Hopefully the upshot will be better vetting of candidates.

  34. Goodness me today is a big news day indeed.

    How on earth did such violence manage to occur at the detention centre on Manus Island?

    This is absolutely horrendous

  35. Clive Palmer ‏@CliveFPalmer 39s

    Head of @AusElectoralCom & others responsible for WA Senate election debacle should resign with voters now forced back to the polls #auspol

  37. [Madoff got 150 years for corporate crime

    Legal experts says he is unlikely to serve the full sentence.
    ]

    Don’t they have an obligation to keep him alive long enough to serve out his sentence?

  38. William Bowe@1369

    Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor.

    William, I am not a psephologist, as you and others here know, but to me that means that either Nielsen or Essential is wrong. No doubt you will be commenting with the next thread, I will be interested to see what you think.

    Would MOE explain it?

  39. Psephos@1371

    Madoff got 150 years for corporate crime


    Legal experts says he is unlikely to serve the full sentence.

    Medical specialists and the bloke over the back fence would say the same thing.

    😀

  40. 7-1-7
    [Just got a call from someone at my bank who had obviously seen that I had a decent sum sitting in a bank account …]

    What’s your email address? I may have some investment opportunities to offer you after I receive your account details and password.
    Mick77@lagosinvestments.com.ng

  43. MICK – I considered that. But I think it was legit, funnily enough. Whenever I got to the bank they look at my account and start asking if I want to do something with the money

  45. [Greg Barns
    #auspol Abbott government directly liable for Manus Island harm done to asylum seekers. It is a hell hole and Australia’s hell hole.]

  46. [@davidwh/1374

    That maybe true, but, since when is Corporate Australia or Corporate USA good examples?
    ]

    Well we do have strong legislation and common law in relation to corporate governance probably as good as found anywhere in the world. We run the risk of making errors when we generalise about painting all within a group with the same brush of the few people who flout the rules. It doesn’t matter whether it’s corporations, unions, politicians or ordinary groups of people.

  48. They keep saying many of the AS were attacked by “locals”. Making it sound as if people from the local village wandered along to beat the crap out of the AS. From this report they were local employees not just wandering “locals”. As for the shooting a local journo reports that a GS4 guard said the notorious PNG police unit hired by us opened fire.

    [a local reporter asserted that it was local staff working for security contractor G4S who weighed in on asylum-seekers, reportedly with iron bars and machetes, causing mass injuries.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/reports-of-violence-and-serious-injuries-amid-conflicting-accounts-of-manus-island-detention-facility-uprising/story-fnihslxi-1226830048273

  50. [Clive Palmer ‏@CliveFPalmer 39s

    Head of @AusElectoralCom & others responsible for WA Senate election debacle should resign with voters now forced back to the polls #auspol]

    I think Palmer is right about that.

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