Essential Research: 50-50

Still no sign of Newspoll, but the ever-reliable Essential Research still has a two-party deadlock, and offers responses on Peter Cosgrove, unions, parental leave and intolerance.

Essential Research has two-party preferred at 50-50, with both major parties up on the primary vote: the Coalition by a point to 43%, Labor by two to 38%. The Greens are down a point to 8%, the Palmer United Party down one to 3% and others down to two to 7%. Also covered:

• Only 4% rate Peter Cosgrove “not a good choice” for Governor-General, with 30%, 34% and 11% respectively rating the choice excellent, good and acceptable.

• Forty-three per cent are happy for the Governor-General to be appointed by the government, with 40% favouring direct election.

• Sixty-one per cent think unions “important for Australian working people today”, compared with only 30% who think them not important, with 45% thinking workers would be better off if unions were stronger compared with 27% for worse off.

• In response to a question which first explains the specifics of the government’s policy, including the $150,000 ceiling and 1.5% levy, only 23% favoured the government scheme over 36% for the current policy and 32% for neither.

• There are also questions on the prevalence on various forms of intolerance, which you can read about in the report.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

875 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  5. victoria 389

    I am guessing she would be giving up any real chance of becoming a senior minister.

    What about post politics – would she be giving up perks, cushy jobs etc…..

    And I imagine her Party would stamp and shout a lot and throw a lot of mud around.

    I was hoping this would take a life of its own with some far right MPs like Bernadi unable to restrain themselves and giving her a real serve which in turn may force her hand. But generally they seem to be calm….so far.

  6. SK

    [Can anyone involved in election campaigning give us an idea what Sharman Stone would be up against if she went independent? ]

    Given that (as a general rule) 30% of an electorate is rusted on Labor, 30% rusted on Lib/Nats, independents find it hard to ‘peel off’ enough of those votes to win.

    As a general rule, an independent has to either have a very high profile (Peter Andren, local radio announcer) or be already the MP (Tony Windsor) or have lots of money backing them (Cathy McGowan spent $150k to win Indi, and then only just pulled it off).

    [How hard would it be for someone to run a campaign (financially and physically) as an independent compared to with a Party backing?]

    Partly answered above.

    Murray is actually much easier for an independent to win than most country seats; its population is centralised in one major town (unlike Indi, for example).

    Given this town is Shepparton, and SPC Ardmona is quite literally the heart of the place, this makes it even easier in the present scenario.

    Stone would still need to find enough funding to run off around 50,000 HTV cards at the very least, and find volunteers to help with campaigning. (This is where party backing helps; the party provides you with HTVs and some other campaign material and the party structure provides you with a pool of volunteers, many of whom have been around for several elections and know exactly what to do).

    In these circumstances, however, I don’t think Sharman would have much difficulty finding either the cash or the volunteers needed.

    [What else would she stand to lose?]

    The goodwill of the Coalition. If they’re in government, they can make life difficult for her (Indi has already lost government projects, for example).

    A path to promotion. Independents don’t usually find themselves as Parliamentary secretaries or Ministers. Before Abbott, Sharman was on an upward path, and would certainly be a Cabinet Minister under almost any other Liberal leader.

    IF Stone thinks there is a good chance of Turnbull (or anyone with half a brain, for that matter) taking over the Liberal party leadership in the next three years, she might hang in there. Financially, it would be worth her while.

  7. I am thinking of a SA Chapter lunch at the St Kilda Hotel sometime. Maybe an informal get-together for those who live nearby, or who don’t mind the trip to the northern suburbs, just put up a date and leave it an open invite without commitments. There is a wicked playground there for kids and adults. We could do the Mangrove walk if we pick the right day.

    That is to tide us over until our next formal SA Chapter Nosh-up.

    So let’s do it.

    Sunday 27th April. St Kilda Hotel. 12.30pm till whenever. do the mangrove walk after, have a look/a go on the playground, walk along the water. come back for coffee, chat some more. maybe the historic tram will be running. make an afternoon of it if you want, leave whenever.
    How does that sound?

  10. Morning all,

    Ya’ll know Abbott & his “govt” jumped the shark yesterday?

    It’s all over. His cred is shot to pieces.

    He lies. We all knew it, now Joe public knows it cause the MSM can’t hide it from them anymore.

  12. @SM/410

    That’s the problem with parties aligning themselves with the media, the parties go dumb, and can’t think anything for themselves, so they rely on their temporary mates at Noise Ltd.

    I say temporary because let’s face it, political party/media love isn’t gonna last for ever.

  13. I’m puzzled by that pre-recorded interview Abbott did on 7.30 this week. He seemed all too ready with the answers to some tricky questions – very unAbbott like. I’m wondering if it was a condition of him appearing that his office be given a list of the questions in advance.

    If so, that would fit very neatly with Credlin’s policy of total control and coverup in media dealings.

  16. “@ABCNews24: Shorten: Abbott Govt will stop at nothing to put pressure on the cost of living of ordinary Australians by tackling their work conditions.”

  18. thanks zoomster (406)

    She has been a Lib MP for nearly 20 years. And is 62. I am not sure if that makes it easier to jump or harder. It would be a very difficult decision I imagine.

  19. silentmajority@410

    Morning all,

    Ya’ll know Abbott & his “govt” jumped the shark yesterday?

    It’s all over. His cred is shot to pieces.

    He lies. We all knew it, now Joe public knows it cause the MSM can’t hide it from them anymore.

    One can only hope so

  27. With the elevation of Christine Fyffe as Speaker of the Victorian Legislative Assembly, we now have female Liberal Speakers in the Commonwealth, NSW, Victorian and Queensland lower houses.

    Ken Smith will undoubtedly go down as the worst Speaker in any Australian Parliament in recent times. His resignation speech was typical of him: graceless, partisan, inflammatory and stupid.

  28. Tony Abbott is bringing back Workchoices, despite “promising” that it was “dead,buried, and cremated”.
    This sleazebag had the audacity to accuse PM Gillard of being a lyer .
    Vote the sleazebag out.

  30. Scottish Parliament ‏@ScotParl 6h
    #EqualMarriage Bill has been passed by @scotparl: Yes – 105 , No – 18 , no abstentions. #MCPBill

    Another one we are certainly been left behind

  35. guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, February 5, 2014 at 11:53 am | PERMALINK
    mari

    No fighting over who wears the skirt 😀

    Good one! was waiting for Poroti to make an appearance with a U tube to that effect

  37. poroti
    Posted Wednesday, February 5, 2014 at 11:59 am | PERMALINK
    mari

    It will be a race between Ireland and Aus for the prize of last Anglophone country to make the move.

    Speak of the person(my comment above) and who appears, BUT where is a U tube clip !!

  39. Yesiree Bob

    I have been voting since 1972 and in that time I have never see a Tory government, federal or state, which did make reducing workers pay and conditions a priority.
    As much as they deny, duck and weave and spin, it is in their DNA.

  45. Surprise No 99. Despite refusing to support Holden for no reason having to do with awards, and despite refusing to support SPC and despite drawing ‘a line in the sand’ on industry assistance the Abbott Government has announced $16 million for Cadbury’s factory in Tasmania and $3.5 million for SAFCOL in Tasmania.

    The Abbott Government is providing industry assistance of $420,000,000 to the rural sector – about twice more than Holden and SPC combined might have cost. It is also providing billions of dollars in industry assistance to the mining industry by way of fuel excise exemptions.

    Surprises, lies and pathetic excuses abound.

    Abbott made up some SPC award conditions that did not exist and lied to Australians about that. Abbott also reckoned that the Government was not supporting SPC because the existing awards were too generous. But the SPC award conditions are less generous than the Cadbury’s award conditions. Abbott is Mum bout it and is trying to pretend that the Cadbury’s sponsorship logo on his taxpayer-funded bike rides has nothing to do with giving free taxpayers’ money to Kraft. Nor has Abbott complained about the generous parliamentary award conditions that he receives on his bike rides. And no-one in the Liberal Party, least of all Unemployment Minister Abetz, appears to give a bugger what the SAFCOL award conditions are.

    The only useful thing about this on-and-off policy shambles have been some rather good stone fruit jokes.

    Shanahan reckons the decision was good policy but handled poorly, politically.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/pm-again-fails-to-appreciate-political-consequences/story-e6frg6n6-1226818003036

  46. “@SharmanStone: Judith Sloan, will you now apologise to SPCA and its workforce for your gross misrepresentation of the valule of their entitlements?”

  49. the IPA are farking shameless – but too ashamed to put a byline on this crap. also fails to mention their donations from murdoch, reinhardt, tobacco, fossil fuel and alcohol lobbies.

    http://ipa.org.au/publications/2233/the-dirty-dozen

    I bet the Oz reproduces this in full within a week.

    Higgins, Symes, Coombes and to a lesser extent Grassby are heros of mine who did more to make this country a fairer, egalitarian, educated and tolerant place than most others – no wonder the IPA hates them. I’m surprised they left off whitlam and moss cass. I guess they had to go Grassby because they want to get rid of the law that Bolt got done on. they are serious loons and it is tragic they get mainstream coverage. why doesn’t the abc have someone from green left weekly or socialist alliance on every chat panel? imagine the asphyxia and howls if they did.

  50. Guytaur

    I wonder what would have happened to Sloan in her student days if she had submitted an essay that was as wrong as her writing in The Australian. Or what would happen to a student who submitted crap like that to her?
    But writing in The Australian, in the war against the unions and the left, truth is not even optional, it is specifically ruled out.

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