It’s been a disappointing week for poll junkies, with the phone pollsters including Newspoll evidently waiting until after the Australia Day long weekend before ending their New Year hibernation. Since this is an off-week in Morgan’s fortnightly cycle, that just leaves Essential Research. All told, there have only been three poll results published so far this year – two from Essential and one from Morgan – so you’re more than welcome to take BludgerTrack with a bigger-than-usual grain of salt for the time being. For what it’s worth though, the one new data point has driven the Coalition to a new low of 39.3% on the primary vote, and pushed Labor’s two-party lead to a new high of 52.5-47.5.
That might seem counter-intuitive given that the one new poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, but there are three factors which have made it otherwise. First, in adjusting the pollsters for their house biases, a unique approach has been adopted for Essential Research to acknowledge that its bias is in favour of stability, rather than one party or the other. For example, Essential overshot on the Labor vote during the election campaign as momentum swung towards the Coalition, but it’s been doing the opposite since the Coalition started heading south in November. So rather than the usual method of determining bias with reference to past performance in late-campaign polls, I’m plotting a trend of Essential’s deviation from BludgerTrack so its bias adjustments change dynamically over time. With Essential stuck at 51-49 to the Coalition while other pollsters are being fairly unanimous in having Labor leading 52-48, you can pretty much work out for yourself what the Essential bias adjustment currently looks like.
The second point is to do with rounding. While Essential’s two-party result was unchanged this week, the primary vote had the Coalition down two points, Labor down one and the Greens up one. Most of the time that would mean a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, but this is one of those occasions where the shift went missing after the remainders were pared away. However, BludgerTrack doesn’t actually use pollsters’ published two-party results, instead determining primary vote totals and deriving a two-party result from them using 2013 election preferences. So the Essential result looks like a slight shift to Labor compared with last week, so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The third point is that Essential’s numbers are a two-week rolling average (though last week’s result, being the first from the year, was a sample for that week only), so any change that occurs in a given week is a bigger deal than the published numbers suggest.
So it is that BludgerTrack gives Labor a 0.5% gain on the two-party preferred projection and a boost of three on its seat tally. The state relativities haven’t changed much since last week, so the Labor seat gains are evenly spread, with one each provided by Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Full results as always on the sidebar.
Zoomster
Gillard chose to make the CA CA announcement while campaigning in my electorate. I assure you it was not well received. It was a fudge and cop out which everyone knew. I assume that because it fell flatter than a thrice risen souffle it did not get much more airplay.
zoomster – you are wasting time and effort pointing out the carbon tax lie that posters continue to perpetuate….
Less painful banging head against a brick wall…
have foreseen naval confrontation in timor sea for many weeks – getting to be real, almost. abbott probing indonesia. he lives in a thought bubble that will go pop. before that the gg might act as ellis prompts. just read ellis then first time since election. a good tonic.
[The debate was about the electoral impact of the policy and how it was perceived and what its intent was.]
And I’m calling it a stupid and irrelevant ‘debate’ given that none of the circumstances surrounding it at the time even exist today.
If you genuinely care about abating AGW, and thing a market pricing mechanism is the most effective way of dealing with it, then for god’s sake, stop fighting the divisive Rudd wars of the past and turn your attention to what the actual federal govt is doing today.
remember it was a big boat up north that cementing howard (remember him?) and abbott worships him and that event is etched … what the hell is the navy tied up in this wretched business anyway? dont we have other border people?
Hmmm well, what a cesspool of racism, bigotry and intolerance catallaxyfiles is! Glad I never ventured there before.
As an alumni of RMIT I am extremely disappointed that RMIT would employ such a person.
But bad as he is, his commenters are worse.
Abbott hung out to dry…..
[The Piping Shrike @Piping_Shrike 27m
.@slackbastard can’t think of many countries with “race powers” in the Constitution that “progressives” are now furiously trying to keep.
@ndy Fleming @slackbastard 11m
@Piping_Shrike OK. Haven’t been following prog opinion on that section of C. Understand deeper prob to be q of jurisdiction & sovereignty.
The Piping Shrike @Piping_Shrike 5m
@slackbastard this is what the cross party push for the Preamble is about, updating and preserving the race powers. Post coming.]
Indigenous recognition in the Constitution is now anti progressive as benchmarked against the efforts in other countries? That will be an interesting post.
Confessions
The original point, now long forgotten was to try to stop the negative practice of assigning blame for the 2010 election to a couple of leaks, rather than getting down to the task of working out what actually went wrong.
In this context, people who actually thought the Citizen’s Assembly was a good idea, seem to me to lack understanding of politics and how policies are perceived. It is so much easier to spout “it was that blue meany Rudd” than actually think about was actions caused Gillard’s loss of popularity. The CA was one action Gillard took that led to a
daretotread@2122
As a good Labor supporter, you should know full well that Gillard’s “there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead” was only part of what she said about the climate change policy her government took to the election. Here’s the full quote:
Tell me, does that sound like someone who’s copping out on climate change?
himi
Of course, dtt’s accusations about climate change denial and lack of action on carbon pricing are particularly ironic, given her constant whinges leading up to the introduction of the carbon price.
Just for you, Deblonay
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jb6nR_kdk9w
The CA was one action Gillard took that led to a poor electoral outcome. Real Julia was another.
The issue is why did the ALP make these blunders and how do you stop it happening again.
And – I promise, folks, for the last time – dtt, I used actual data to show there was a link between those leaks and Labor’s decline in the polls.
You have provided nothing to disprove that.
Comments on the Pickering Post going apeshit about Adam Goodes being made Australian of the Year.
Seem to be blaming Tony Abbott!
All want war with Indonesia – no volunteers though!
himi@2146
Apart from saying that people see things differently and have different backgrounds from which to form a judgement, I will confine myself to your last paragraph. (quoted)
The difficult circumstances of minority government were created by the events of 24 June 2010 and all that flowed from them.
I don’t see her as an ‘exceptional’ PM other than in a predominantly negative sense. And the public judged her harshly – not exactly indicative of a good PM as part of a politicians job is to maintain political support.
But obviously, a significant number of people saw her differently. That is the case with all leaders.
Far better to look at mistakes both Gillard and Rudd made and try to learn from them.
One thing’s for sure, it will be one hell of a long time before another ALP PM is dumped by caucus.
In terms of policy development and implementation, Gough Whitlam remains the best PM in my lifetime.
Whitlam worked tirelessly, along with his colleagues, to develop a range of policies on which they fought and won the battle of ideas. He was elected to government and then set about implementing those policies.
And that, himi, is how it should be done IMHO.
DTT:
Who the hell cares about the 2010 election? It’s ancient history, underscored by the retirements of Gillard, Rudd, several other Labor MPs from those days, Labor’s new leadership election rules, and the present day reality of an Abbott Coalition govt.
[Of course, dtt’s accusations about climate change denial and lack of action on carbon pricing are particularly ironic, given her constant whinges leading up to the introduction of the carbon price.]
Hell yeah. DTT’s entire MO is wrapped up in Rudd cultism.
DTT
No, you are just kicking Gillard again, but dressing it up as concern.
Who said every idea had to be brilliant anyway? Male PMs are not held to that standard. What about Rudd’s idea of appointing Coalition lackeys to plum jobs, or dropping Garret into the crap, or that dumb take-over of the state hospitals idea.
Gillard has not got the copyright on mistakes, and the ALP tried different ways to prosecute their agenda, some worked some didn’t. So what? You have got do-nothing Abbott now, but at least you have the comfort of knowing it is not Gillard. That must be worth a raised glass or two.
Australia’s leading corporate chiefs on the four things leaders should never do
(see LeadingCompany at bottome of page)
And Abbott ticks the box on everyone of them…what an inept pathetic failure he is…
Psephos@2162
Clearly the product of sick minds.
I have friends who come from Iran and they have family and friends there.
deewhytony@2165
Conscript the lot of them!
DTT is here to remind us just how appalling and damaging the Rudd spear carriers were; and doing an excellent job I add.
Certainly Labor has no mortgage on dumb ideas…need only look at Abbott and his front bench.
One thing they have outdone Labor on…debt. It took Labor 6 years and a GFC to to get their debt level…it took Abbott around 3 months with a strong economy to double it.
Zoomster
I think you are being narky and not grasping in the least what I am saying. I have not made any comment about the wisdom of the Carbon Price. My comments related to the Citizen’s Assembly which was so obviously an attempt to ditch the ETS, that I am surprised there is debate on the issue. You only need the sort of discussion on the issue if you have doubts and if at least some people involved are not convinced of the issue ie are deniers.
Now this has not one whit to do with what I believe on the issue. It is about POLITICS.
A good distraction can halt progress for years.
Just like a good slogan can stop critical thinking for a generation.
[I have friends who come from Iran and they have family and friends there.]
So do I. That doesn’t alter the fact that the Tehran regime is one of the world centres of evil and will have to be dealt with eventually.
Fred
You and Zoomster and Confessions are here to remind us of how politically inept Gillard supporters were and doing and excellent job I add.
Bemused
It was actually John McCain…,who sang during a former election meeeting a song”Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran” …based on… I think..n old Beachboys song…
McCain is listed as being a massive receipient of AIPAC funds..and if that’s what Netanyahu wants …that’s what McCain wants and it’s Netanyahu who pays the piper
DTT – 2163
Simply could not hold their nerve under pressure. Always worried about focus groups and what twitter had to say rather than sticking to and defending the original policy.
Hence the many back flips and sense of chaos.
Psephos@2177
And bombing really discriminates between the good and the bad, doesn’t it?
Puff
The only relevant issue is how Labor can remove Abbott and the far worse mob around him. That requires good electoral politics. This means looking at mistakes of the past and trying to learn from them
How bloody hard is it for people to grasp this.
[McCain is listed as being a massive receipient of AIPAC funds.]
AIPAC have very good judgement, I’ve always thought. McCain is one of the better Republicans. But I’m sure most of their efforts will be directed at electing Hillary Clinton in 2016. America always does best under a War Democrat.
2177
Iran would probably be easier to deal with if China and Russia were responsible democracies, as their people (and all people) are entitled to have.
Taylormade
Spot on!!!
[DTT is here to remind us just how appalling and damaging the Rudd spear carriers were; and doing an excellent job I add.]
DTT is here to keep the Rudd cultism alive. For what reason is anyone’s guess, but his/her delusion that we have a citizen’s assembly rather than carbon pricing, and that this means something in 2014 under an Abbott govt is somewhat disturbing.
2179
The song dates from the Iran hostage crisis (i.e. 1980).
It would have been good if the operation to free the hostages had worked. Iran may not now be run by the Ayatollahs and Carter may have been re-elected.
[Comments on the Pickering Post going apeshit about Adam Goodes being made Australian of the Year.]
One of the site s to visit if you ever need confirmation that there are indeed some completely whack-jobby individuals out there. I wonder what you would have to post to get moderated off that site??
taylormade@2180
As opposed to the Whitlam approach which I mentioned @2166.
A true political leader, like Whitlam was, takes the lead on issues and policies and wins the battle of ideas. That needs to be done before implementing a policy. It requires discipline, patience and determination.
bemused@2166
Obviously that’s hard to argue with . . .
I apologise to everyone who’s been irritated by this line of discussion – I’ll try not to respond any more since it’s not going anywhere, but I figure I’ll at least respond to this.
See, that was what I was trying to get an answer on – /why/ was she judged so harshly, not just by the public but by the media, by a whole lot of people even including hard core Labor supporters like yourself. Because the /only/ thing that I can see that Gillard did wrong (ignoring policies that I disagree with and so forth) was to fail to convince people to listen to her. But /why/ didn’t she manage that? It’s obviously a pointless question to be asking of you, since you can’t seem to get past . . . well, whatever it is that made you think she was worthless, but I just haven’t been able to find any kind of sensible explanation for what happened.
In any case, this has turned into a big storm in a teacup that’s now totally irrelevant. Time to empty it out and put it in the dishwasher, I think.
himi
Re Iran……………
“world centre of evil”…and will have “to be dealt with” ” …How ?
That sounds like Netanyahu.at his worst .??? sounds like him…or even mad Bush at his worst…which has produced what ???…Iraq today
actually” Iran being dealt with” is not on the US agenda now anyway If I read the US policies correctly”…the Saudis..yes..and Israel yes…always
but even in the last weeks ,the Turks have moved to a link with Iran….and certainly the Russians and the Chinese will not allow any ” 2003 -Iraq-type” attack on Iran…if that’s what is meant by “dealt with “….surely a euphemism for a major war in the M East
[Simply could not hold their nerve under pressure. Always worried about focus groups and what twitter had to say rather than sticking to and defending the original policy.]
It’s been reported that this was one of the main reasons Rudd was removed in the first place. Pandering to the media cycle rather than doing the actual work of governing.
[nonsense. Gillard repeatedly committed to pricing carbon during the 2010 campaign.]
Yeah she was so committed to a carbon price she said she’d have a Citizen’s Assembly.
confessions@2186
Oh, right, I get it, let’s go into the next election proposing a Citizen’s Assembly on a whole lot of things. That should do it! Victory is assured! 😆
Oh, and since you mention ‘cultism’ you appear to be the high priestess of the cult of the Immaculate Gillard. People like DTT & I acknowledge errors and achievements by both Rudd and Gillard. Nothing cultish in that.
Yawn – retiring for the night, noise on PB is getting beyond the joke.
Hillary Clinton…a war Democrat(as was her Husband if one thinks of the Balkan war)would be a major purchase for the zionist lobbys’ peak-body AIPAC…who spend massive sums in every election in the USA.buying politicans ..only the Guin Lobby outspend them and it is if possible… even more virulent
I think it was Mark Twain who said …in the USA the honest politican is one who when he is bought…stays bought”
[People like DTT & I acknowledge errors and achievements by both Rudd and Gillard. ]
*laughs. hard*
You should become a comedian, bemused. You really are a crack up.
himi@2190
himi, it is a pleasure to engage in dialogue with you because you are genuine and interested in opinions other than those agreeing with you.
She was not worthless and I have never said that. She just did not cut it as PM.
I imagine there are some good PhD theses or even books to be written on this and I am not going to do it.
To me, she just seemed to make bad judgements such as the aforementioned Cash for Clunkers and CA.
She also seemed to lack a certain quality that successful leaders have. It inspires others to follow.
A good example was the role Anna Bligh adopted during the floods in Qld. She stood out as being in charge and providing a lead others were prepared to follow.
When Gillard appeared with her, she really added almost nothing. She could have asserted leadership of the Federal response and articulated what the Federal Govt would do. No doubt she did it in some way, but it was so low key I have forgotten, if I was ever aware.
In the end it was Labor who screwed it up, leaving us with the Lizard King as PM.
[The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all your Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all your Tears wash out a Word of it.]