With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).
The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.
Dealing with Sean is easy. You don’t need William to short circuit the moron. Do it yourself. Read nothing of what he writes and don’t engage him under any circumstances. If everyone did that he would eventually tire and move on. Bloody simple really.
[What do you have to say about Ruawakes “Sticking things up each others arses” comment?]
It wasn’t my comment, it is FACT.
Gary
As my dear old mum would say, there is no defence against niceness. If you are nice to people who want you to hate them they run out of steam really quickly.
By the way, has the Defence Minister made any comment on “hazing”on HMAS Ballarat? The enquiry must be over by now.
Sean ‘I’m going to give myself a leave of absence because my new years resolution demands it.’
Hallelujah.
Gary@1901
No.
William told us all last night? about what he wants for PB’s culture.
Is telling people to kill themselves what he had in mind?
We all know the answer is no way.
Night all, don’t worry I will not top myself. I have a mission in life – give Tories the shits. 😛
Former Anglican Bishop of Canberra slates For Minister Julia Bishop on her statements re “illegal” settlements in Palestine________________________
Great anger here amongst the Middle Eastern communities re giving the Israelis open slather…can this Govt get any foreign policy matter right ?????
Who haven’t we offended_???
Lieutenant-General (so that makes you three stars) Angus Campbell really really looks as if he would rather be somewhere else as the little tin pot Morrison tries to convince all the the Navy has no maps.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/why-indonesia-is-so-touchy-about-borders-20140117-310gg.html
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/bishops-troubling-stance-on-legality-of-israeli-settlements-20140117-
Bishop condemns Bishop re Israel/Palestine
Re General Campbell
___________
we look more an more like a military regime
why doen’t Shorten tell Gen Campbell to get of the media with Morrison. and stop being used in Morrison’s stunts…. ..this is not Egypt_
dave @ 1884, agreed.
Lizzie @ 1819
A few years ago my dad fell about 3 or 4 metres onto a rocky creek bed. He was around 70 when this happened. He broke some ribs and was very sore for ages – he also had a serious lung issue. It sounds a bit like what you’re describing (tho it could be very different.)
The reason I mention it is that it took ages to work out what was going on. He was in pain, couldn’t breathe properly so had oxygen and was very weak. Lots of coughing with movement. Best when lying down. Thought he might be dying. Had x rays, scans etc etc and nothing showed up. Ex smoker so they looked hard for things that could indicate cancer.
Eventually mum forced him to have yet another MRI scan and … I dunno made sure it was thorough, somehow. A tiny little blood clot was found, lodged in one of his primary bronchioli. A couple of weeks on anti clotting drugs and he was fine again. His lung function had returned to “normal”. Tho he does have some dependence on the O2 these days. Possibly its psychological.
The point of the story is it took ages and lots of scans and a lot of pressure from mum to find out. It wasn’t an embolism in a blood vessel. The clot was in the lung itself. It was easily missed and if it wasn’t for mum’s insistence on redoing the same scans (possibly 3 times in total) it wouldn’t have been found.
I know internet diagnoses are always sus, but what you said about movement and coughing reminded me of it. With hindsight the coughing and issues with movement were said to be connected to the clot especially the coughing which Drs said must have been due to dad trying to clear the irritant/blockage out of his lungs.
Anyway all the best to both of you and I hope it gets sorted soon.
Pretty much sums it up:
http://aussieobserver.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/crikey-says-ship-has-now-sailed.html
Sean ‘I’m going to give myself a leave of absence because my new years resolution demands it.’
—————————————
More likely his subscription is due and Menzies House won’t cough the money
Mr Denmore @MrDenmore 3h
Old Reuters correspondent mate, who covered the Afghan war, says of the asylum seekers: “Ive been where they’re from. I’d do the same.”
I agree In post 1882 Tisme call for anther poster to”top” themself is unacceptable in deent society(which is PB…i think)
please William put a stop to such calls
O please Pine-O-Sean isn’t that hard to debate with, sure its a bit like a broken record but if you can’t argue the case here then it will only be harder in the real world.
You might feel that you are getting nowhere with Pine-O-Sean but by discussing you may be teaching others a few pointers that they were not aware off.
With that i am off to offer congrats to those fine Australian business who see Indonesia has a place with a bright future.
ROFL
Inadvertently Here @geeksrulz 7h
Twitter is calling bullshit on Operation Can’t Find Da Border. #auspol
Google Earth seems able to show the border, i would image that the Navy would have far more detailed maps available than Google Earth.
A $90 GPS device would inform a navigator of their position within 10 metres or so. The Navy would have better equipment than that. That they got lost several times defies credibility.
Pure speculation, but is it possible a RAN vessel disobeyed an order to release the lifeboat at the 12 mile bordenr and chose instead to escort the lifeboat closer to shore for fear the refugees could be at risk. The refugees claim their lifeboat was released 3k from shore. Why would they lie about that detail? Surprised the journos aren’t asking that question. Perhaps the biggest story out of this whole affair is yet to emerge…?
Minus-Three-Star-Rating is on the boatphone to Col. Scoot:
“Gad, sir! Lost a lot of weight when I was deployed years ago to Indonesia to help put the natives in their place. Couldn’t eat the foreign muck they called food, by jingo! Anyway, Beef Rendeng is on the menu tonight in the Officers’ Mess – sounds absolutely spiffing! Toodle-pip, old chap!
AC – that would be “beef rendition” wouldnt it?
No different to John Howard calling for Terrorist attacks in neighboring countries:
http://www.paclii.org/journals/fJSPL/vol07no1/3.shtml
The Republicans Party in The US becomes the anti-science party___________
As here the right-wing opposition to the whole idea of climate change is making the Repubs in THe USA the anti-science party…this follows on from their anti-evolution stance forced on them by their Fundies christian Looney supporters and their Murdoch press allies
The anti-science stand is clear here in the linethat Menzies House follows and the many LNP backers who hate the CSIRO and the BoM…what madness
The farmers here have all done well from the many science based innovatiuons re agriculture…but do we hear any defence of the CSIRO these day by their minister,Barnyard Joyce
to read the Madies on sites like M.House one would think the CSIRO was run by the Trots
that way lies madness…when do they come up with a critigue of gravity and the idea that the world’s a sphere
[ That they got lost several times defies credibility.]
Ahem.
Numerous times with various vessels.
Even that is the official spin – putting the best version on it all.
It sounds like this – Border Protection decided they wanted a selected outcome in a series of ‘operational situations’ – ie boat pushing backs/ tow backs etc. (which abbott has cast doubt on being within their own policy – as and when it suits.)
Anyway, at the pointy end – Border Protection go ahead and do what they want — tow backs/ isolate irregular arrivals who are subsequently also sent back in range of scenarios — incliding keeping them on aussie vessels for days before forcing back on the high seas. Piracy / Who knows?
But are ADF/ RAN pushing back in it all? Is that why this has all now been announced when previously it was silence. No Comment. No Presser. Operation stuff etc.
morrison didn’t rush out to apologise without a very real reason.
ADF or ADF elements may well be saying enough is enough.
But the government is barely being questioned. The Age Editorial is an exception – as far as it went, which was limited.
Question : Would Children Overboard even hit the airwaves etc in the current media environment if it happened today ? Would the Defence Minister or indeed the PM even be asked a single question.
ATM none of the questions are being asked, the media are not interested.
Poor fellow my country.
The GOP in the US and the Lib/Nats here and their war on science…..
http://www.juancole.com/2014/01/endangering-evolution-regulation.html
@DrCraigEmerson: Our Navy is highly competent. It knows when it’s in another country’s waters. So reasonable to ask who ordered it into Indonesian waters.
MM,
[AC – that would be “beef rendition” wouldnt it?]
lol. Yeah, there are so many Col. Blimp’s around, it would make a British Battle of Britain skyline look like a desert island vista.
Dave, 1927, my thoughts too … I suspect the truth will come out in due course. Only way to make sense of Morrison saying Wednesday that Aus would respect Indo borders, then the next day fessing up that border had been breached.
Morrison and 3 star saying ships “inadvertently” crossed into Indonesian waters is simply a bloody lie to try and cover up Government incompetence
@DrCraigEmerson: Our Navy is highly competent. It knows when it’s in another country’s waters. So reasonable to ask who ordered it into Indonesian waters.
Possibly, but cant believe even Morrison would be that stupid. I favour the RAN or customs vessel deliberately disobeying an order not to cross the border, on humanitarian grounds.
Emmo is absolutely spot on @ 1929
There is no way that the Navy would have accidently charted into Indonesian waters.
The captain of the ship could be blind drunk after 30 schooners and 100 nips of Vodka and the mistake would still not be made.
And the Indonesians know it!
It must look disgraceful for 6 Star Whatsis Name that it has occurred under his watch.
Follow Monkey directions and you will be made to look the fool.
Centre 1934 what dya make of my theory at 1933?
If an RAN or customs vessell did deliberately disobey an prder from Canberra not to cross the border on humanitarian or safety grounds I tips my lid to them. And if this is what happened then Morrison and the Navy Minister should either be tendering their resignations or insisting the relevant captain or captains are courtmarshalled.
Rossmore, on humanitarian grounds?
They should be sent to Australia on humanitarian grounds.
The only way to stop the boats is with regional cooperation and that includes Indonesia.
Abbott is an embarrassment to our country.
[@DrCraigEmerson: Our Navy is highly competent. It knows when it’s in another country’s waters. So reasonable to ask who ordered it into Indonesian waters.]
This is the “obvious as ST’s stupidity” line. Its also one that the Australian AND Indonesian Govts are likely trying to avoid talking about so that the “public” diplomatic relationship isn’t completely trashed.
[but cant believe even Morrison would be that stupid.]
Have you been following their supposed efforts at diplomacy??? Just when you think they are as low as can be, this lot will plumb new depths.
[I favour the RAN or customs vessel deliberately disobeying an order not to cross the border, on humanitarian grounds.]
Possibly, but if that’s the case why not tell people??
Still no sign of Abbott to explain his part or lack thereof in breaching Indonesia Territorial Waters.
Why? Staving off a leadership coup or a cabinet reshuffle as he prepares to announce sacking Ministers?
Look this is crazy!
Does Abbott want a war with Indonesia?
For eff sakes, the precedent HAS been set.
The LNP must sack that warped individual asap.
Centre 1937 no argument from me on that, but in a difficult tense operational sphere where you are under orders to “tow back” and abandon a vessel, the lesser of two evils may well be to cross the border and release the vessel closer to shore. I believe our front line armed forces are highly professional and may well have made that call on safety grounds. It would have been an honorable decision IMHO.
Centre,
[The captain of the ship could be blind drunk after 30 schooners and 100 nips of Vodka and the mistake would still not be made.]
Gad, sir! What is it with this insinuation that we naval and military chappies have swapped our traditional rum n’ water grog for the mamby-pamby mummy’s boy piss you have listed?
By jingo, sir! If you were within a ship’s hook of me at the moment, I would personally keel-haul you!
Now, where was I? Oh yes, off to the Officers’ Bar for a few dozen Gin and Tonics! Bottoms’ up, you bounder!
Whatever the real explanation, and my thoughts are just a thought bubble, it seems pretty clear that our front line forces are being put in an impossible situation, at the whims of political expediency. Morrison and the inept Defence Minister are playing with fire on this one.
Centre@1940
Won’t happen.
The organisation itself is just as warped from top to bottom.
Exhibit 1. Tisme.
[ Rossmore
Posted Saturday, January 18, 2014 at 10:33 pm | Permalink
@DrCraigEmerson: Our Navy is highly competent. It knows when it’s in another country’s waters. So reasonable to ask who ordered it into Indonesian waters.
Possibly, but cant believe even Morrison would be that stupid. I favour the RAN or customs vessel deliberately disobeying an order not to cross the border, on humanitarian grounds.
]
I’d think I’d go for that also. Following orders is no longer an excuse. Dropping people off in the middle of the ocean; someone dies, shit hits fan. Was following orders of some guy called Morrison (not even minister of defence) and some dude in the army, is that going to cut it?
It smells as if the Navy might have had enough. Morrison gets up and says Navy too dumb to read maps, no love lost there.
More likely Navy can read maps and stuff that says they are not allowed to do bad things.
Love to be fly on wall.
AC
He might like variety 🙂
Bemused, maybe not Abbott himself, but I suspect one or more of the 3 Star General, Morrison or the Defence Minister could fall on their sword within the week.
Well all this secrecy is wrong!
For eff sakes, this is Australia not Russia in the 50s 😡
[
I favour the RAN or customs vessel deliberately disobeying an order not to cross the border, on humanitarian grounds.
Possibly, but if that’s the case why not tell people??
]
Well Morrison isn’t going to tell us the Navy has told him to get stuffed.
The Navy isn’t going to say they told the government to get stuff, it’s not the way it supposed to work here. We are supposed to end up with a slightly competent civil government.
Frednk
If I recall correct it was navy who eventually blew the lid on children overboard. I like your theory. I’ll have faith in the senior service to get the truth out.