With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).
The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.
Western Power (or whatever they’re calling themselves this week) clearly don’t consider dodgy power poles starting fires to be bullshit. For the past two or three years, there has been a truly massive program of power pole replacement in the Hills. OK, so there has also been the question of capacity upgrades being required, but, having had the finger pointed for more than one major fire in WA, Western Power has certainly taken the matter of dodgy poles seriously.
Incidentally, I was grimly amused, when I received my electricity bill this week, to note the “Are You Bushfire Ready?” on the front of the envelope and mentally added the rider “Because We’re Going to Start One”.
Certainly the source of ignition is only one area that requires consideration, whether it be by improvement of power infrastructure, control of arson (dunno how though), improved protocols for fire bans, better public education or whatever. There are, as has been stated here, other things to think about in terms of planning approaches and building codes so that when fires do start (and, with the best will in the worlkd, they’re going to) damage is minimised and as few people as possible are in harm’s way.
The question of fire in Australia is a complex problem and no one simple solution will work on its own, however much anyone would like it to.
ROSSMORE – FORCING people to enter the territorial waters of another country must be a breach of international law. Coercing those same people to return to indonesia is probably also a breach of our domestic law. I’d love to see the legal basis for doing so.
If I’m correct, that raises the question: why isn’t our navy refusing to carry out illegal orders? I’d love to know.
Zoom –
I’m not seeing “something more” myself.
The LNP are in a bind with respect to the budget – it’s proving a bit harder than they thought to ‘cut the waste’ in any even vaguely politically acceptable way. After the years of railing against ALP deficits they have to show something in terms of a projected budgetary improvement.
So they’re cutting everything. I would think that Julie Bishop is probably proud that she’s managed to keep an aid budget at all given most of the LNP probably see it as a quick $5 billion per year boost to the budget that they desperately need that won’t have many (Australian) victims to complain…
I think the upcoming budget IS going to be a horror budget.
I think universities should be very worried. Vocational training petrified. I think the NDIS is dead in the water for now – they’ll only commit a fraction of the money needed, and it will completely fail to meet the minimum needs that would make the NDIS a success. I think hospital/health funding will be significantly targeted. Some welfare will be slashed.
I honestly can’t see Abbott’s PPL surviving this budget – it’ll be pushed out to 2017 or something, along with any cuts to company tax associated or not associated with it.
They won’t promise a surplus but I think they have to show a budget returning to surplus by 2016.
The entire media have given abbott a free pass on this serious issue with Indonesia.
Not one of them asking where he is or why he isn’t providing explanations let along leadership.
Almost as if the post of PM no longer exists.
As others have said, imagine the carryon if it was Labor in this mess.
Why do your power poles burn down anyway? Ours don’t. Oh that’s right. In SA ours are made of concrete and steel.
http://www.samemory.sa.gov.au/site/page.cfm?u=274
Puff, yes, but they kill motorists instead. Not that smacking a wooden pole at speed is all that good for your health either.
The intellectual bogan
They are a weird mob at western power. Their contractors routinely patrol the suburbs of Perth and leave threatening notes in the letterbox about trees they consider too close to power lines. It’s cut the tree by such and such a date or we will and charge you heaps sort of stuff.
I took slight exception to one of these letters, and emailed WP pointing out that the tree causing the problem was nowhere near a power line until western power moved the line.
Well, you should have seen the reply, got the full on legal thing,,quoting acts and regulations and threatening tone and all.
My replay was brief. I said I would trim the tree when I was good an ready and pointed out that unlike western power , I had never started a fire, much less killed anyone.
never got a reply.
Frankly, putting cables at the tops of poles really only has cheapness to recommend it. And yes, I’m fully aware that without that advantage we, as a nation, would be unable to afford even a fraction of the infrastructure networks we have, so I’m realistic about poled services as a necessary evil.
@Jackol/1853
It will be more than what you listed, alot more, why do you think the attack on so called Disabled and Pensioners rorting the system *apparently* was the start of it, then NDIS, Mal Brough was given that to stuff up.
Howard has tried and done all that you listed when he was PM.
All was to attack the poor and he claimed it was a “fair budget”.
[If I’m correct, that raises the question: why isn’t our navy refusing to carry out illegal orders? I’d love to know.]
To busy stuffing things up their crewmates arses.
[“People were set upon by members and stripped off and had things essentially put in their bums,” she said.
“I think people are scared.
“If it happened in a normal workplace the police would be called, charges would be laid.”
HMAS Ballarat, an Anzac-class guided missile frigate, is taking part in Operation Resolute, part of the Federal Government’s border protection strategy.
Defence says because the Ballarat is currently deployed on border protection operations, officials from the Australian Defence Force Investigative Service (ADFIS) will not be able to join the ship for several days.
Vice Admiral Griggs says Defence has dealt with the allegations swiftly and has reiterated that the behaviour is not consistent with Navy values and will not be tolerated.]
Upo until not so very many years ago, Western Power did their own tree patrols in our area (dunno about the rest of the state). A couple of years ago they contracted it out and our local patrols are now conducted by a firm of tree surgeons. Personally I’d see this as a bit of a conflict of interest but that phrase doesn’t sem to be widely understood in WA.
Mind you, I haven’t, so far, received any tree notifications which weren’t entirely reasonable, whether from WP or from their contractors.
1855
That does not eliminate all power pole related fire causes. Power lines breaking because they are not well maintained or a tree falls on them can still happen.
Oh, and the ABC is about to be shafted.
Oh did I mention that Tories used the same “tough, but fair budget” message?
2010:
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xdrt7u_osborne-promises-tough-but-fair-bud_news
2012:
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xqqecv_uk-reveals-tough-but-fair-budget_news
Having been a major facilitator for the government about to do the shafting, it saddens me to say, in all sincerity, that the ABC deserves all it gets. With any luck they might fire Phillip Adams so he ceases to be a double agent for Rupe.
Yes, I know, but the poles don’t burn out from under the lines.
Cars do smack into them but they are mostly the drivers who would have smacked into something anyway, including on-coming traffic. Smacking into a wooden pole, breaking it off and bringing live wires down on the wreck is no fun either. We don’t get much of that.
Stobie poles don’t break, AFAIK. Trees falling on them yes. There has been some serious tree slashing since that scenario started some fires.
The govt has announced its northern development zone thingy it promised in opposition, with a parliamentary committee now calling for submissions.
Flicking through the ToR which came through my inbox at work I saw resources sector growth, tax zones, a few other issues, but nothing about those promised 100 dams.
theintellectualbogan@1858
You’re only talking about within suburbia, and not even that. Those underground services in suburbia have to have high voltage substations.
In order to transfer power efficiently, it has to be at very high voltages. 240V does not cut the mustard.
Typically, transmission lines for long distance transmission of electricity in Australia are 132,000 volts 275,000 volts (SA values). In NSW it is 500,000 V, 330,000 V and some 220,000 V.
Putting those underground is not an option.
Jackol@1863
They deserve everything they get after giving abbott the soft treatment for years.
Currently they are cowed and frightened to say boo.
In far less serious circumstances, stories like the ones current would have been repeated for days with all sorts of angles of analysis.
They can barely find the starch to even report current circumstances.
The national so called Broadcaster who died of Shame.
A totally embarrassing shadow of its previous formidable self.
Time for it to be dead buried and cremated.
Not fit for purpose and damaged goods to boot.
Puff, I actually agree with you but I don’t know how to do smilies here and thought they might be considered inappropriate when used with regard to road trauma :).
Puff:
There have been several reports here in recent weeks about the failure of power companies to adequately police and enforce the maintenance of power poles on private property. There are reportedly inadequate penalties as well in these circumstances.
i checked google images and found bent and broken stobie poles so I will amend the previous statement.
But this will give you some idea.
http://www.busaustralia.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=72617
The ABC is the only media available (Radio) in some parts of Australia. If Abbott wants to piss another section of the community off, mess with ABC Local Radio.
The intellectual bogan
I share your view about the conflicts in having a contractor using the imprimatur of a government agency to demand you do something that could line his pockets.
I think you are a bit unfair on adams. I know he writes for Murdoch and was an unashamed admirer of Rudd but the Tories hate him. if you actually listen to his programs sure many of his guests are of a leftist persuasion but it’s not all about politics and he doesn’t use the broadcasts in a blatantly political way like the commercial shock jocks do. And he has some bloody interesting people on at times.
fess
That would not surprise me. Inspection and enforcement costs money.
ruawake@1874
Regional centres as usual will be less impacted ie the Nats shotgun at the head of abbott. ala Grain Corp.
Same same with privatisation etc of Australia Post. A deal will emerge for Regional Australia.
But a gutted NBN and same with snail mail.
Everyone for themselves now – if it makes profit, the big end of town will get it. If it doesn’t make profit – good night the fox – here comes the bullet!
Any future budget from the inept Abbott and Co will be a terror budget for the low income workers, disabled, pensioners etc.
Every policy introduced so far has been to the advantage of the wealthy.
Abbott has permitted the FBT rorts to continue, removed the tax on superannuation earnings over $100,000 per year and is removing the MRRT so poor Gina can increase her income above $600 per minute.
Abbott has targeted the weak and the vulnerable with total disregard for his religion which preaches the opposite.
But then a quick trip to the confessional and all is forgiven….
theintellectualbogan
Ferrari meets stobie pole. (no-one hurt).
😆
http://aussieexotics.com/2008/10/28/ferrari-360-modena-crash-in-walkerville-south-australia
We should deduct $100 Million Dollars from the foreign aid to Indonesia for every illegal boat they refuse to take back.
Should change their mind on the turnback policy pretty quick..
Well, waddya know, the smiley worked.
Don, I’m aware of the need for HV transmission and the difficulties posed by putting it anywhere other than up in the air, but it’s not, generally the HV lines which cause fires, get tangled in trees or come down in bad weather. They can, but the HV network seems to be more robustly engineered and better maintained than the 415V three-phase lines around our flammable outer suburbs.
Besides, Basslink (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basslink) puts an HV transmission line under 290 km of salt water (and some underground) which indicates that even long distance transmission can be done underground from a technical standpoint. It’s just so staggeringly expensive that we (quite reasonably under the circumstances) don’t.
[To busy stuffing things up their crewmates arses.
“People were set upon by members and stripped off and had things essentially put in their bums,” she said.]
You trruly are an anti-Australian turd.
Why don’t you go top yourself with so much hate for this country and it’s service men and women that protect your way of life?
[ Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, January 18, 2014 at 8:26 pm | Permalink
We should deduct $100 Million Dollars from the foreign aid to Indonesia for every illegal boat they refuse to take back. ]
So full of it. So full of hate.
Please stay a tory supporter – it suits you.
A mental pigmy supporting a political organisation who have long lost their way.
With any luck they are well on the way to making themselves unelectable.
Show us your DD!
[ Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, January 18, 2014 at 8:29 pm | Permalink
Why don’t you go top yourself ]
That is totally unacceptable.
William may choose not to do anything about it but its totally beyond acceptable.
It’s a while since I listened to LNL. I actually found the guests, leftist or not, to be generally the best part of the program, although I found Bea Campbell’s tendency to either nick material from Private Eye or to simply make shit up rather irritating.
Adams, on his best day, I found very good but was also capable, on his worst, of being the sort of left-wing intellectual who might be planted by the right in order to discredit the species as a whole. Over time, the best days seemed to become fewer and the worst to be more frequent. Time for him to be put out to pasture I think. I’m not sure who’d be a worthwhile replacement though.
ST 1882 “….it’s service men.”
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.
Dave,
What is unacceptable is attacking the entire Navy of the Commonwealth of Australia to try and score some political brownie points by claiming that some one off events like the ones listed is common every day practice.
I know this doesn’t bother you, but I think it’s disgusting and disgraceful but your moral outrage doesn’t seem to care when it suits you.
Someone smarter than me please provide a link to the story in the Fairfax press about activist Max Ogden and his adventures with ASIO. They were keystone cops in the old days and I suspect they are no better now.
dave@1884
I agree, Dave. ST needs some time out.
[ don
Posted Saturday, January 18, 2014 at 8:39 pm | Permalink
dave@1884
Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, January 18, 2014 at 8:29 pm | Permalink
Why don’t you go top yourself
I agree, Dave. ST needs some time out. ]
William – are you around atm ?
“some one off events”
Hahahahahahahah. Bwahahahahah. LMAO. Oh dear.
[Why don’t you go top yourself with so much hate for this country and it’s service men and women that protect your way of life?]
Goodness, why are you unhinging so spectacularly?
And btw, you do realise there are several PBers who have direct personal experience of suicide, and who don’t deserve to have their grief rubbed in their faces with your callous remarks.
The intellectual bogan
Yeah bea was an irritant but I haven’t heard her for a while. I agree that Adams’ best days are probably behind him but just the fact that the Tories hate him gives him a bit of latitude with me.,
Abbott has reduced the foreign aid budget by $4.5 billion…no compassion, no empathy for the thousands who will die of starvation and/or disease because of this selfish uncaring attitude.
The thing is – he shows the same level of compassion and empathy for Australians, well unless they are mining billionaires or the wealthy
Dave,
What do you have to say about Ruawakes “Sticking things up each others arses” comment?
No? Nothing? Didn’t bother you hey?
I’m going to give myself a leave of absence because my new years resolution demands it.
I know The Australian was once a reputable newspaper, but that hasn’t been true for probably 10 years. For Adams to be foolish enough to provide cover for the LNP campaigning mouthpiece it has become is inexcusable and shows some very poor judgment or some major selling out.
Either way, Adams has burnt his credibility.
@Sean/1880
Use of Mythical scenarios is at it again.
[Why don’t you go top yourself with so much hate for this country and it’s service men and women that protect your way of life?]
I repeat a new report of actual events on HMAS Ballarat. Don’t like facts do you. The Navy hates what it is doing, it should be patrolling shipping lanes in the middle east or Pirates off Africa.
But nope, they get to abuse helpless people and eventually themselves.
[ Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, January 18, 2014 at 8:47 pm | Permalink
I’m going to give myself a leave of absence because my new years resolution demands it.]
The issue is whether telling people to go and kill themselves is acceptable to the recently discussed “culture” of this board.
That decision is not in my hands.
@Sean/1895
It’s nearly through the month, you already failed about 20 times in your new year resolution.