Seat of the week: Wright

Because nothing says Merry Christmas like a review of a safe-ish conservative seat in south-eastern Queensland.

Wright was created at the 2010 election as the latest new seat to be gained by Queensland as part of its ongoing population boom, taking on territory from the Gold Coast electorates of McPherson, Moncrieff and Fadden together with rural areas out to the New South Wales border, which had previously been in Forde and to a smaller extent Rankin. The Gold Coast area had historically been covered by Moreton and later by McPherson and Moncrieff, which were respectively created with the enlargements of parliament in 1949 and 1984, while the north-western areas were covered by Darling Downs and its successor Groom after 1984.

The electorate is lacking a clear centre, combining the inland edge of the Gold Coast and Brisbane’s southern hinterland, Warrego Highway towns to the east of Toowoomba, and rural territory in between. All of its component areas have traditionally been solid for the conservatives, but double-digit swings in Forde and Blair at the 2007 election gave the seat a relatively modest notional Liberal/Nationals margin of 4.8% going into the 2010 election. This has since been boosted by successive swings of 6.4% and 1.7% at the 2010 and 2013 elections.

Wright has been held since its inception by Scott Buchholz, who had previously been chief-of-staff to Barnaby Joyce. Although his background was with the Nationals, the seat had been reserved for the Liberals under the terms of Liberal National Party merger and he sits in the Liberal party room in Canberra. The LNP’s original choice for the seat had been Hajnal Ban, a Logan City councillor who ran for the Nationals in for Forde at the 2007 election. However, Ban was dumped for failing to disclose Civil and Administrative Tribunal action against her over her use of power-of-attorney over the finances of an elderly former council colleague, for which a conviction was recorded against her in 2012. An unsuccessful contender at both preselections was Cameron Thompson, who held Blair for the Liberals from 1998 until his defeat in 2007. Buchholz attained the position of government whip following the election of the Abbott government in September 2013.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,040 comments on “Seat of the week: Wright”

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  1. Why hire full time, as well? Hire someone part time/casual if your business can’t cope – at least until it grows. While I am not that up to date with labour laws, I am sure they’re options.

  2. @Sean/796

    We do, the problem isn’t the wages.

    It’s all other costs involved.

    * Business Insurances.
    * Rent for the business.
    * Equipment hire.
    * New Licenses such as Forklift tickets, upgrading truck tickets etc.
    * Bills.
    * Loans.
    * Extra vehicles & costs associated.
    * If you running a software based company, Software Licensing for each and every computer you need to pay for full licensing – software alone can cost more than a single employee.

    And there is plenty of more costs than just the “employee(s)”.

  3. And now for GWV:

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 6m

    #Newspoll WA State 2 Party Preferred: LIB 51 ALP 49 #wapol #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m

    #Newspoll WA Barnett LIB: Approve 34 (-17) Disapprove 54 (+18) #wapol #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m

    #Newspoll WA McGowan ALP: Approve 51 (+2) Disapprove 22 (-7) #wapol #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m

    #Newspoll WA Preferred Premier: Barnett LIB 37 (-15) McGowan ALP 43 (+12) #wapol #auspol

  4. [#Newspoll WA Preferred Premier: Barnett LIB 37 (-15) McGowan ALP 43 (+12) #wapol #auspol]

    That one is probably the most shocking.

    Fortunately for Colin, he has another 3 and a bit years to try and get it back on track.

    If polling worsens, I wonder how long it’ll be before we have someone making leadership moves…

  5. [25k with no annual leave, super or overtime for a full-time job in 2013?
    You can shove that where it fits. ]

    Typical Laborite… rather see someone on the dole queue than working for a fair days wage.

  6. Sean,

    Your commentary would make more sense were it not for the fact that Australia has had relatively low unemployment for some time despite having a “high” minimum wage by international standards. Countries with lower minimum wages have higher unemployment. If we’re to pretend for a moment you’re truthful, what is clear is that you can afford to employ another employee, by your own calculations, but you choose not to.

    And another point, if you employ another person you would presumably be able to do more jobs, quicker, and hence the employee may be able to pay for themselves. Or does the problem lie with the capital productivity, rather than the labour productivity?

  7. 806

    That would likely have the ALP with 2 Senators and the Greens with 1 in the WA Senate revote that is likely. There however could be a further swing against the government.

  8. That is about a fair day’s pay as a giving them a bowl of burnt porridge, you miserable miserly scumbag. You should be tarred and feathered for that kind of exploitation, you mean tight-arsked maggot.

    Typical exploiter of the disadvantaged, a Tory conservative right-wing bloodsucking parasite. I have met cow-ticks with more sense of fairness than you.

    You are exactly what is wrong with this country. Why don’t you do us and you a favour. Move to a third world workers hell-pit of a country, You will be happy to pay someone 5c an hour and we will be happy to see the back of you.

  9. [Fortunately for Colin, he has another 3 and a bit years to try and get it back on track.]

    Yes, but the point is that even in WA, Abbott is having a toxic effect on the Coalition vote. This will give new hope to Labor in the upcoming set of elections: Griffith and Redcliffe (Feb), SA and Tas (March), Vic (Nov) and Qld (March 2015). Tas is probably beyond salvation, but all the others are starting to look much better.

  10. Interesting… of the nations that can reliably said to have lower unemployment, while many of them don’t have a minimum wage, they are required to follow collective enterprise agreements, some have to be agreed between unions and employers and others a collective agreement regardless of union membership. The average minimum of many of these appears to be above that of the Australian legislated minimum wage.

  11. 814

    It also is good for the ALP in the event of WA being sent back to the polls for the Senate. I think that that is more than likely.

  12. [Yes, but the point is that even in WA, Abbott is having a toxic effect on the Coalition vote. This will give new hope to Labor in the upcoming set of elections: Griffith and Redcliffe (Feb), SA and Tas (March), Vic (Nov) and Qld (March 2015). Tas is probably beyond salvation, but all the others are starting to look much better.]

    That point was not lost on me either.

  13. I don’t think Abbott has much influence on these numbers.
    WA is “different”. National factors aren’t much of an issue.
    This is all down to Barnett’s arrogance and broken promises.

  14. Re unemployment anmd minimum wage
    _______________________
    In some states in the USA the basic wage is as low as $7 dollars an hour…and in many not much more
    In some places workers work just for the tips…yet real unemployment is in many places 2 or 3 times the Oz rate
    So much for Sean’s nonsense re wages at al

  15. Might not be surprising to some but the federal seats with the lowest level of unemployment have the highest income levels.

    As much as i try and support small business but looking at it from a microeconomics and from other sources it is hard to see the benefits in a lower minimum wage.

  16. So, Henry, in that case how do you account for the TPP result being even lower for the Coalition Federally in WA in the latest poll?

  17. Fulvio, I blame Barnett. He is cactus and has been for a while. Hubris has bit the emperor on the arse.
    Time for the chair sniffer, ha ha WA what have you done.

  18. [Might not be surprising to some but the federal seats with the lowest level of unemployment have the highest income levels.]

    That’s a silly comparison.

    Areas with the highest income levels have million dollar houses by the seaside.

    If you don’t have a very high paying job… you can’t afford to live there.

  19. I think some in the west have started to see a pattern emerging with coalition promises before elections. Barnett’s were bad enough, but then to be followed so closely by Abbott’s was just too much. Those missing out on light rail then missing out on braodband as well are starting to put two and two together.

  20. The fact that the only Daily Newspaper in WA has embarked on an anti Barnett (though not anti Liberal)crusade hasn’t helped the conservatives either at the state level.

    The local Liberal propagandists engaged by the West Australian to bolster the Federal Coalition are so pathetic and blatantly obvious(eg Murray) that they can’t and aren’t taken seriously by anyone anymore.

  21. Oh, and the WA Liberals very own village idiot Rob Johnson hasn’t helped their cause with his incessant sniping at the party hierarchy since being dumped for being …well, the village idiot.

  22. I doubt very much that “most million dollar homes are owned by foreigners” even if you count overseas born Australian citizens and long term permanent residents as “foreigners”.

    I suspect that most such homes in this country are owned by tradies, Fifos, farmers and small business people.

  23. Shanahan reporting WA Newspoll from the last 3 months:

    50-50

    Primaries
    Lab 36
    L/N 41
    oth 13

    Wooohoo! We’re finally waking up over here.

  24. Zoidy, I’m sure foreigners are buying a lot of properties in Australia, but they have a long way to go before they own most million dollar homes here.

    Anyway, you seem to have scared Sean off. 🙂

  25. WA is an odd case. Always has been.
    I mean I am from WA.
    So why such a conservative state?
    Beats me, can only guess they are always trying to stiff the other states in their quest for being the most upwardly mobile. Chip on shoulder stuff?

  26. The fact that in this day and age some Western Australians still refer to the rest of the Federation as “t’othersiders” must give you some clue to the answer to your question.

  27. The first British colonies in WA were founded for the sole purpose of keeping the French out.

    Ever since, the state psyche has been influenced by its isolation, the lingering overlay of paternalistic colonial rule, resentment of the perceived economic successes of the Eastern States, particularly pre the 1990’s, and the concentration of wealth and power, until at least the Second World War,in the hands of a relative few family dynasties.

    With this background of mildly xenophobic instincts, small population, and diffidence to the directions of their “betters” as decreed by the very few local and conservatively owned media outlets, is it any wonder that, generally speaking, Western Australians are what they are in their political outlook?

  28. Has there been any poll reversal such as this?

    I know some local issues with some policies (i.e. shark killing in WA for example) but, not sure where the trend is coming from.

  29. [
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    25k with no annual leave, super or overtime for a full-time job in 2013?
    You can shove that where it fits.

    Typical Laborite… rather see someone on the dole queue than working for a fair days wage
    ]
    Sean to be very keen on having a working poor. I wonder where he wants the slums located.

  30. A quick look at Sean’s costings seems to indicate a bit of double counting.

    If you are paying an employee $X per annum you do not pay holiday pay on top of that. It is part of the annual wage.

    No wonder Sean has problems controlling his costs.

  31. “He told the Guardian: “You only have to watch the news over the last few years to know these events are happening more often now. It needs to be a bigger priority for the government and it is.”

    Oh dear, a politician making a link between a serious weather event and climate change. Another loony Left/Green type? Nope, none other than the UK Tory PM, David Cameron commenting on serious floods in the UK this week.

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/dec/27/david-cameron-confronted-residents-flooded-village

  32. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A bit late this morning. Sorry.
    If they got rid of coverage for all the fringe crap it would be a good start!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/patients-put-pressure-on-public-system-with-no-frills-private-health-cover-20131227-2zzok.html
    Hmm. Would truth be a defence?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/from-baristas-to-barristers-would-you-like-a-lawsuit-with-your-coffee-20131227-2zzog.html
    They are disappearing up their own anal orifices!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/morrison-retreats-from-media-on-asylum-seekers-20131227-2zzsw.html
    Although Morriscum did give us a virtual weather report.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/27/scott-morrison-the-boats-have-not-yet-stopped-but-they-are-stopping
    Will suited, geriatric punches be thrown?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/the-ashes-unfinished-scg-stands-without-a-roof-20131227-2zznx.html
    This stance won’t do Big Clive any favours.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/no-christmas-present-from-clive-palmer-for-senator-nick-xenophon-as-motoring-deal-remains-under-wraps-20131227-2zytk.html
    Another success racked up by the inept management of Myer.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/myer-website-closed-with-tech-glitch-after-boxing-day-sale-crash/story-fni0d2cp-1226790613289
    Posted without comment. No flame wars please!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/pope-francis-hits-reset-and-its-tony-abbott-and-george-pell-who-must-adjust-20131227-2zz8t.html
    Alan Moir. Funny, but very frightening!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Pope with another beauty. Abbott’s visualisations.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html

  33. And from the Land of the Free –

    Some cartoons on gift returns and exchanges. I do like the first one!
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/12/27/cartoons-day-returns-exchanges/
    Look at this graphic on the rate of Obamacare sign ups.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/12/27/1265520/-Abbreviated-pundit-roundup-ACA-signups-spike
    Here’s a time bomb if ever there was one!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/27/military-sexual-assault-reports_n_4508698.html
    Piers Morgan’s challenge to Brett Lee gets coverage in the US.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/27/piers-morgan-fast-bowler-brett-lee-cricket-ball-australia_n_4508331.html

  34. Good Morning

    Good to see the WA figures. Nice to have some facts to back up what we have been speculating.

    2014 is not going to be a good year for Abbott by the looks of it today.

  35. [
    He does not live in the Vatican apartments, instead bedding down in two rooms at a hostel reserved for visiting priests, and he lines up with the others to get meals from the canteen (a strategy, according to Roman gossip, to avoid the risk of being poisoned by an increasingly resentful Curia).
    ]
    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/pope-francis-hits-reset-and-its-tony-abbott-and-george-pell-who-must-adjust-20131227-2zz8t.html#ixzz2oi6dBHgI

    He has lasted longer than Paul 1.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_John_Paul_I_conspiracy_theories

  36. From the W.A. blog a couple of wonderful numbers worth more display. Bring on the senate revote !

    […….. result for the state has it at 50-50, which compares with 58.3-41.7 at the election………..Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition and 36% for Labor, compared with 51.2% and 28.8% at the election. ]

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