Seat of the week: Wright

Because nothing says Merry Christmas like a review of a safe-ish conservative seat in south-eastern Queensland.

Wright was created at the 2010 election as the latest new seat to be gained by Queensland as part of its ongoing population boom, taking on territory from the Gold Coast electorates of McPherson, Moncrieff and Fadden together with rural areas out to the New South Wales border, which had previously been in Forde and to a smaller extent Rankin. The Gold Coast area had historically been covered by Moreton and later by McPherson and Moncrieff, which were respectively created with the enlargements of parliament in 1949 and 1984, while the north-western areas were covered by Darling Downs and its successor Groom after 1984.

The electorate is lacking a clear centre, combining the inland edge of the Gold Coast and Brisbane’s southern hinterland, Warrego Highway towns to the east of Toowoomba, and rural territory in between. All of its component areas have traditionally been solid for the conservatives, but double-digit swings in Forde and Blair at the 2007 election gave the seat a relatively modest notional Liberal/Nationals margin of 4.8% going into the 2010 election. This has since been boosted by successive swings of 6.4% and 1.7% at the 2010 and 2013 elections.

Wright has been held since its inception by Scott Buchholz, who had previously been chief-of-staff to Barnaby Joyce. Although his background was with the Nationals, the seat had been reserved for the Liberals under the terms of Liberal National Party merger and he sits in the Liberal party room in Canberra. The LNP’s original choice for the seat had been Hajnal Ban, a Logan City councillor who ran for the Nationals in for Forde at the 2007 election. However, Ban was dumped for failing to disclose Civil and Administrative Tribunal action against her over her use of power-of-attorney over the finances of an elderly former council colleague, for which a conviction was recorded against her in 2012. An unsuccessful contender at both preselections was Cameron Thompson, who held Blair for the Liberals from 1998 until his defeat in 2007. Buchholz attained the position of government whip following the election of the Abbott government in September 2013.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,040 comments on “Seat of the week: Wright”

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  1. Zoilord @812

    can you manage in this budget?

    Total per annum

    Food
    Fruits & vegies 1,040
    Woolworth 4,160

    Car
    Car rego 950
    Car insurance 900
    Car fuel 1,040
    Car maintenance 1,200

    House
    Council 2,400
    repairs 3,000
    gas 1,800
    electricity 1,800
    Water 600
    Insurance – House 900
    Insurance – Contents 900
    0r rent at $200pw
    Medical
    HCF 3,000
    Medicine 1,440
    Doctor 540

    Telephone
    Mobile 720
    Broadband 840
    Foxtel 600

    Miscellaneous
    240

    Grand total 28,070

  2. Mr Hockey has been forced to defend keeping the Prime Minister’s “signature” policy of a wage replacement parental leave scheme.

    “The Paid Parental Leave Scheme actually improves productivity by improving participation in the workplace,” he said.
    =================================

    PPL will not improve productivity, that is an outright lie.

    Proper, affordable child care is what is needed.

  3. Hockey – “And the PPL, the Paid Parental Leave Scheme, is fully funded – fully funded and more – in our budget.

    “So we’ve actually done the yards on finding the savings to pay for a program that improves productivity
    ===========================================

    Another lie.

    Hockey has not found savings to pay for the program. PPL is funded by introducing a 1.5% tax on business that will be passed on to consumers, increasing inflation and the cost of living

  4. [Yes, but the point is that even in WA, Abbott is having a toxic effect on the Coalition vote. ]

    The WA result is Barnett’s doing, not Abbott’s. Look at the personal ratings for Barnett, which is all his own doing.

    Bring on the Senate re-vote.

  5. Australia’s new Prime Minister Tony Abbott has abandoned his Country in his first year of office in 2013 during the Western World’s important Christmas celebrations and holidays. PM Abbott has taken his family for a holiday in France skiing.
    Prime Minister has had a number of controversies with Indonesia since gaining office in September 2013, with many of these still unresolved. The new government have stated there are a number of urgent matters to attend for the Country and these appear to be put aside for their celebrations and holidays, or were only politically important at the time.
    During 2012 PM Abbott’s current Australian Government Treasurer Joe Hockey was scathing of the then Prime Minister Julia Gillard over having a holiday at the Christmas celebration in Australia and leaving her home State. Mr Abbott is not a native of Australia and himself arrived by boat and became an Australian Citizen. The current boat people arrivals in Australia seeking asylum is an issue that has caused an unbalanced harmony between Indonesian and Australian government.

    by Editor Thu 26 Dec 2013
    Article at Indonesia Buzz4you

  6. If a new Senate election is called in WA then these polling figures probably signal the demise of Barnett as Premier almost immediately.

    Whether the problem is Barnett alone or Barnett/Abbott the Libs will be desperate to maximise their Senate vote and lancing a wound by changing individuals is always more palatable than changing policies.

  7. AA

    I’m really interested in the implications of the study based on NAPLAN scores recently, which found that children whose mothers (alas, that’s what the evidence showed) didn’t work ‘excessive hours’ (which I take to mean not beyond full time) performed better academically.

    It made me reflect on the (admittedly anecdotal) approach to maternity leave in the teaching profession.

    Teachers in Victoria are entitled to seven years’ unpaid maternity leave. That is, they’re guaranteed a position at their old school during that period (obviously they have to give some notice of their return).

    Many women do seem to take the full seven years. Although that’s often accompanied by grumbling about the struggle to make ends meet, and many of them take on some kind of part time work, this suggests that the rush to get back to work for many women might have more to do with a concern about their job security rather than money.

    If mum staying home (and as a feminist who didn’t, I don’t like actually saying this, but as someone looking at the issue from a wider policy aspect, I have to at least tentatively accept the evidence) lessens the need for childcare, then dollars can be thrown at encouraging mum to stay at home. If mum staying at home is promoted because it improves the child’s future academic performance, then the push to send the child to private school is less.

    When we look at school performance, we tend to concentrate on end outcomes – performance in VCE and international testing of 15 year olds – and to focus on how we can improve schooling at that end. It’s possible we’re looking at things the wrong way round, and should be shovelling the effort and the money at the other end of education, and perhaps back at the pre natal level.

    Interestingly, too, the countries who we look to as examples of what should be happening in education are also ones with generous maternity leave schemes, with better job security.

    There needs to be a lot more research done in this area before we leap to any conclusions, but it’s interesting to speculate that maybe we’re looking at it all wrong.

  8. News 24 highlighting the 10% drop in support for the LNP Federally in WA in papers section quoting the GG.

    Also reporting a defection to Australia from Zimbabwe.

  9. The by-line for Shanahan’s column today is that the WA Newspoll is “potentially disastrous”.

    Not even any pretence at balance.

  10. A little sideline on the lady’s problems.

    [Zimbabwean state-run newspaper The Herald had published the claims made about the ambassador and The Australian also ran Wafawarova’s claims days later.

    Ms Zwambila launched a lawsuit against The Australian’s publisher, News Ltd, and Wafawarova in 2011. Court papers say Wafawarova was motivated out of malice as an “agent of the Mugabe regime”. She reached a confidential settlement with The Australian in March 2011.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/zimbabwe-ambassador-makes-a-bid-to-stay-20131227-2zzvf.html#ixzz2oiLK389k

  11. PvO, responds to Brandis’ letter to the Oz rejecting PvO’s calling him a hypocrite over the Tim Wilson appointment.

    [The argument Brandis mounted to counter my claim that Wilson was a partisan appointment was that while Wilson “may have been a longstanding member of the Liberal Party”, “in his contributions to public debate he has been anything but a Liberal Party partisan”. The example Brandis used to highlight this point was Wilson’s public criticisms of the anti-bikie laws in Queensland. “We were not looking for a partisan, and we have not appointed one,” Brandis boldly declared with the final sentence of his letter.

    Brandis’s argument had two unintended consequences: first, it highlighted that he actually doesn’t understand the definition of a partisan; second, even the incorrect definition Brandis offered up doesn’t absolve him of the charge of hypocrisy. In fact, it cements it, as I’ll explain.]

    He then unloads on Brandis, calling him a greater hypocrite than Dreyfus, and saying Brandis doesn’t know what the term partisan means.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/a-lesson-for-brandis-on-the-meaning-of-hypocrisy/story-e6frg6zo-1226790773623#

  12. That stack of taxpayer funded books doesn’t seem to have assisted Brandis by broadening his mind or understanding the language of the common Australian, does it!

  13. Zoomster

    [I’m really interested in the implications of the study based on NAPLAN scores recently, which found that children whose mothers (alas, that’s what the evidence showed) didn’t work ‘excessive hours’ (which I take to mean not beyond full time) performed better academically.]

    I’d be interested in the methodology here. A substantial proportion of those meeting the non excessive hours test might well be upper middle class women who get their kids tutored and who had them prepped before school started. Having a stable non-financially stressed home doesn’t hurt either.

    I used to teach out in the deep south-west of Sydney where neither primary carer worked excessive hours – often no hours at all — and I doubt these kids are underpinning NAPLAN. I also know that in rural and remote areas, the figures are much inferior, despite stay at home parents being far more common.

    It’s simplistic IMO to link school achievement with hours ostensibly worked outside the home by mothers and potentially corrosive of inclusive public policy as well. Even putting aside the direct rights of women it is the case that children benefit from models of engagement in which women work outside the home and get to be seen as something other than mothers.

  14. I am disgusted with Morrison (overlaid on my previous contempt). He is such a bigmouth when he thinks he’s safe, but can’t take questions from the media and now has abandoned any pretence of bravery in facing them. Can’t defend his own shocking treatment of the refugees so runs away.

  15. fran

    I plead guilty to focussing on one factor the research identified as important, for the purposes of discussion.

    It also found that the baby’s birth weight and a house full of books were also contributing factors in academic achievement.

    Later schooling didn’t seem to be as significant as these three factors.

    I realise it’s early days research wise and that later data might negate it, but – as I said – it suggests that we might be concentrating on the wrong end when it comes to looking at how we improve academic outcomes (if that’s our aim).

    My experience with teacher-mothers who took the seven years off was that they still saw themselves as teachers. Being a mother on leave didn’t detract from that perception.

    The study did find it was mothers who mattered, not fathers. If I go all anecdotal, my husband stayed at home while I worked, and our kids seem to accord with NAPLAN’s findings — but I will also point out that my husband is exceptionally nurturing, and involved himself in the children’s early lives in a way few men do (he was the only male parent on the PTA, for example, and ran various lunchtime activities at their primary school).

    At our small country high school, which has much the same demographics as the schools you refer to, it’s noticeable that the best academic performers tend to be teachers’ kids, and particularly teachers’ kids whose mothers took advantage of the flexibility the education system provides.

    To me, the findings make sense – I aimed for a big birth weight for both my children on the basis of the research I’d done then; both of them were raised with at least one parent at home; and the house is chockfull of books, which is of course an indicator of other things besides reading – but I’d really like to see further studies done in this area.

    By saying that perhaps we’re not looking at the right end, I’m not detracting (heaven forbid) from the work teachers do. Undoubtedly our work would be a lot easier, though, if the childen we were teaching had an optimum start in life.

  16. Peter Garrett has tweeted a series criticising Hunt (with reason). This is one example.
    [Peter Garrett
    Compare & contrast: Libs back down on whaling. We sent vessel, launched court action, rebuffed pro whalers in IWC & put more $ in research.]

  17. From Twitter

    [Interested to see how Gov handles Zimbabwe’s ambassador seeking asylum for fear of persecution Is it off to Manus or Nauru?]

  18. BK

    It is all about him and his cronies.

    Do read that opinion piece by Anne Summers it is well worth it.

    She points out that Pope Francis 1 and Tony Abbott are linked through the Jesuits and how one is humble and one is not.

  19. I don’t believe that the Abbott PPL is a great motivator for women to engage nor to re-engage with the work force. I’m sure there re far greater motivations – career aspirations, rent/mortgage, saving to buy a house, food on the table I think are greater motivations.

    No doubt the ‘gold plated’ PPL will ease any financial difficulties during the 6 months. But at the end of the 6 months any decision to return/re-engage with the work force would in a large part be motivated by the cost factors.

    Career aspiration would be the only motivator if child care costs the equivalent of the women’s wage.

    And if the child care does not provide good, decent and proper outcomes and some educational outcomes then it is a disincentive to return to work.

    My problem is with the Liberal claim that their PPL will improve productivity This is something I do not believe and that it is a deliberate misdirection by the Liberals that is aimed at the vast majority of the populace who base their politics on the 3 second news garb and don’t think any deeper about what is claimed.

    I believe that good affordable child care that provides good social and educational outcomes for the kids would be more beneficial to not only the kids but society

  20. MTBW

    This was the para I liked. I cannot imagine Cardinal Pell having much empathy with the “ordinary parishioner”. The Pope’s intentions are good, but he doesn’t yet understand Pell’s view of the world, I imagine.

    [Pell was still in Rome earlier this month, having met the Pope in his capacity as a member of the Council of Cardinals that Francis established to advise him in the run-up to next year’s synod on pastoral challenges to the family. The group was charged with bringing the views of ordinary Catholics to Rome and it is not difficult to imagine Pell’s reaction to being asked by the Pope to seek the views of Sydney parishioners on divorce, birth control, unmarried couples living together and – gasp! – gay marriage.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/pope-francis-hits-reset-and-its-tony-abbott-and-george-pell-who-must-adjust-20131227-2zz8t.html#ixzz2oiWMSoIP

  21. The Libs determination to introduce their rolled gold PPL scheme should be resisted all the way by Labor and then form a significant policy point of difference for Labor’s re-election.

    It’ll be like shooting fish in a barrel.

  22. Hockey should be taken to task over his claim that he had found savings and reduced govt waste to fund PPL.

    The PPL is to be funded by a 1.5% tax on big companies. This cost will be passed on to consumers and will increase the cost of living and increase inflation.

    (I read somewhere it is also a bigger financial impost on the companies than the carbon price, I have not been able to find the article and would happily stand corrected)

  23. Agree with Confessions earlier on regarding WA.

    While Abbott has not had a good run his impact on the recent WA figures is minimal compared to the disaster Barnett has been of himself.

    Barnett over-promised and for good and bad reasons, has not been able to deliver.

    The fiasco with the Ellenbrook railway, no railway, bus-way, no bus way, with the laughable promises to promise to start the light rail through the northern suburbs and to the the airport, but at some vague future point in time, have all been bad for him.

    On top of this there has been the loss of AAA rating and the mining going off the boil. WA people like to think they keep the rest of Oz afloat and the health of the mining/gas industry is everything in this town. Everything.

    Many of the “Big Picture” promises he made were the completion of Labor ones and those he has initiated have been delayed and are more costly. The net result, more or less, is that WA is getting a new football stadium which it cannot really afford and a waterfront development which will be mainly expensive real estate and expensive coffees.

    At the same time the roads are choking to death and costs are going up for services.

    Somebody earlier wondered why WA was so “conservative” and my tongue in cheek reply is to say: “Too many immigrants who are not Labor voters – many of whom are from South Africa.”

    Not serious here.

    The telling point is the big improvement in Mark McGowan’s rating. He has not changed at all from the election his lost, but like Gillard was for Abbott, he has a growing unpopular leader to compare with.

    Maybe the old truism that governments lose rather than oppositions win elections is just correct more often than not?

  24. lizzie

    Pell would have apoplexy with the Pope including all in the community.

    I loved the bit of Pope Francis wearing sandals rather than red slippers and sleeping in a dormitory.

    I have said before that this is a very different Pope. He is one of the people rather than dictating to the masses how they should live their lives.

    That he is Pope Francis 1 says it all.

  25. I think Pope Frank understands Pell’s view of the world better than we could ever imagine.

    Cardinal Pell has been out of step with the Vatican for a long time. His views on climate change are the opposite of those of the Catholic Church which is fully in support of climate change science. A few years back Pell made a major speech on his views in London at the invitation of the Global Warming Policy Foundation -
    [During the speech, Pell claimed that global warming has “stopped”, that CO2 was “not a pollutant, but part of the stuff of life” and that if carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was doubled, then “plants would love it”.]
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/10/28/climate-scientists-slam-george-pells-utter-rubbish-claims/

    Sounds very familiar to Abbott’s line, doesn’t it. In supporting Pell’s fruit-loop ideas Abbott, the allegedly devout Catholic, is deliberately defying the teachings of his church. Just more proof that Abbott is and always has been as ‘devout’ as a dead dingo.
    Here’s a bit more reading on the subject.
    http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2011/05/20/cardinal-pell-damaging-the-rep/

    The Pope would know that Pell is also out of step on other complicated matters concerning doctrine. Like this one, from 2006.
    http://www.lumenverum.org/message_board/viewtopic.php?t=578&sid=b2f33cdc0b248ab7a0a4ef133619f850

    Then there is the matter of Pell’s murky past with its never disproved allegations of sexual abuse. I think Pope Frank is well aware of Pell’s views, past crimes and ambitions. Any position at the Vatican he has given Pell or will give him will be simply because he wants to have the bastard where he can keep an eye on him.

  26. Hahaha good one!
    RT @roshart:I don’t understand why everyone’s upset about the #Liberals winning! via @ASRC1 #auspol pic.twitter.com/Phrf65OVn0


  27. leonie

    [Then there is the matter of Pell’s murky past with its never disproved allegations of sexual abuse. I think Pope Frank is well aware of Pell’s views, past crimes and ambitions. Any position at the Vatican he has given Pell or will give him will be simply because he wants to have the bastard where he can keep an eye on him.]

    Spot on!

  28. Morning all

    Leone

    It has been mentioned several times on this blog, that the catholic church has long accepted the climate change science.
    Abbott is devout only to Auntie Gina and Uncle Rupert. And of course, the evil George Pell

  29. Tricot
    [Maybe the old truism that governments lose rather than oppositions win elections is just correct more often than not?]
    Probably, and if so reveals flaws in the design of our democratic system. I think primarily in the mixing up in one vote (every few years) of a number of different priorities/messages of/from voters.

  30. Tricot:

    The real problem with Barnett’s broken promises is that he hasn’t even bothered to try and sugar coat the dumped pledges. He’s just arrogantly assumed that voters will accept it all.

  31. victoria
    [It has been mentioned several times on this blog, that the catholic church has long accepted the climate change science]
    Yep – and I’ve mentioned it a few times myself.

  32. [896
    confessions

    Tricot:

    The real problem with Barnett’s broken promises is that he hasn’t even bothered to try and sugar coat the dumped pledges.]

    Barnett just really obviously cheated his way to an election win. Everyone can see that, while the cuts are both very wide and very deep.

    The LNP have done a con-job on the electorate, something that goes beyond broken promises to planned deception.

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