Seat of the week: Wright

Because nothing says Merry Christmas like a review of a safe-ish conservative seat in south-eastern Queensland.

Wright was created at the 2010 election as the latest new seat to be gained by Queensland as part of its ongoing population boom, taking on territory from the Gold Coast electorates of McPherson, Moncrieff and Fadden together with rural areas out to the New South Wales border, which had previously been in Forde and to a smaller extent Rankin. The Gold Coast area had historically been covered by Moreton and later by McPherson and Moncrieff, which were respectively created with the enlargements of parliament in 1949 and 1984, while the north-western areas were covered by Darling Downs and its successor Groom after 1984.

The electorate is lacking a clear centre, combining the inland edge of the Gold Coast and Brisbane’s southern hinterland, Warrego Highway towns to the east of Toowoomba, and rural territory in between. All of its component areas have traditionally been solid for the conservatives, but double-digit swings in Forde and Blair at the 2007 election gave the seat a relatively modest notional Liberal/Nationals margin of 4.8% going into the 2010 election. This has since been boosted by successive swings of 6.4% and 1.7% at the 2010 and 2013 elections.

Wright has been held since its inception by Scott Buchholz, who had previously been chief-of-staff to Barnaby Joyce. Although his background was with the Nationals, the seat had been reserved for the Liberals under the terms of Liberal National Party merger and he sits in the Liberal party room in Canberra. The LNP’s original choice for the seat had been Hajnal Ban, a Logan City councillor who ran for the Nationals in for Forde at the 2007 election. However, Ban was dumped for failing to disclose Civil and Administrative Tribunal action against her over her use of power-of-attorney over the finances of an elderly former council colleague, for which a conviction was recorded against her in 2012. An unsuccessful contender at both preselections was Cameron Thompson, who held Blair for the Liberals from 1998 until his defeat in 2007. Buchholz attained the position of government whip following the election of the Abbott government in September 2013.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,040 comments on “Seat of the week: Wright”

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  1. Can anyone explain the significance of this?

    [ABC News 24
    After 9.20am AEDT #ABCNews24 talks to @CSIROnews’ Dr Alex Hill about NASA’s prediction the sun will switch its polarity in coming weeks]

  2. It shows an interesting split in their thinking that Liberals (as a generalisation) recognise that voters want ALP policies and approach when it comes to winning elections but then proceed to trash them when they’re in government.

    I’ve said for a long time that a successful Liberal government would be one which went the election promising to deliver Labor policies but ran the line that ‘you know we’re economic managers, so we’ll deliver them better’ (I’m not saying it’s correct).

    Howard beat Keating by waiting for Keating to make a policy announcement, then a couple of days later making substantially the same announcement but with a free set of steak knives included. (And then resorted to core and non core promises to wiggle out of delivery).

    Ballieu beat Brumby by promising to the the worker’s friend, offering teachers more money, and offering to fix the public transport system.

    The only exception to the example I can think of is Kennett – and even then much of what he did in government were things he recognised in Opposition that he couldn’t take to an election.

    So the Liberals know that people like Labor policies, use them to get the votes, and then do exactly what they know voters won’t like once they’re elected.

    It surely can’t be a surprise to them when they then struggle in the polls.

  3. lizzie

    Sun polarity change means stronger and more colourful borealis displays at the polls.

    Disruption to and shortening of life of satellites and even of the electricity grid. Mobile phone network disruption I am unclear on.

  4. My understanding is that the charges against Pell were found to be unproven according to the presiding judge due to the elapse of time, doubts about the credibility of the complainant, Pell’s sworn denial and the lack of any corraborative evidence.

    So, my little trolls Leone and MTBW, please return to your sewers.

  5. Zoomster @903 that is absolutely correct.

    So when are the voters going to wake up? Or how does Labor prove that conclusively to the electorate?

  6. z,

    People can dislike Pell as much as they like for his views and actions. I’m sure there is plenty to select from.

    So, why the need to make up crap?

  7. GG

    I could tell you of a conversation I had with a friend years ago who was told by a friend of her son who was a priest and from Victoria who came to stay at her place in Sydney whenever he came up here.

    Enough to say that he had no regard for Pell at all.

    We are not trolls and do not need to return to any sewer.

    Maybe you need to open your ears and eyes a little more.

  8. GG @ 906

    In this case I think you are right to chastise. Innocent until proven guilty.

    No court case taking involving Pell on child molestation charges I know of.

    As for Pell and his actions as a manager acting to curb such activity he gave evidence to that and people can judge whether it was enough. I personally do not think it was however that is very different to colluding and doing the activity alleged.

  9. MTBW,

    What your friend says about someone is of no interest to me. Afterall, they haven’t gone on line like you and slandered someone knowingly with malicious lies that have been dealt with in proper legal process.

  10. fess,

    Absolute scorcher today in Melbourne. Will probably peak around 40 degrees. Poms bowled very well yesterday and the slowness of the track prevented the Aussie strokemakers making any headway.

    Any runs the last two score are gold for Australia. If the Poms get a lead of 300 that will probably be enough for them to win.

    At this stage you’d have to be thinking the Poms can win this.

  11. Golly, I hope we can put the 100 Years War, the 30 Years War, the Battle of the Boyne and the St Valentine’s Massacre behind us today?

    Surely we have moved beyond this this stuff?

    I know it is simplistic but evil and good are, on average, spread evenly among all humanity.

  12. A first innings lead of 70 odd runs would, I respectfully suggest, mean nothing in the context of a test match played in extreme conditions.

  13. lizzie @901

    NASA’s take on the flip. Scary headline when I first saw it but it’s a no worry event.

    [The sun’s magnetic field changes polarity approximately every 11 years. It happens at the peak of each solar cycle as the sun’s inner magnetic dynamo re-organizes itself. The coming reversal will mark the midpoint of Solar Cycle 24. Half of ‘Solar Max’ will be behind us, with half yet to come. ]
    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/05aug_fieldflip/

  14. Hmm

    Someone gave us a shed for Xmas … one of these put it together yourself jobs from Bunnings. Hubby cried off and offered to supply me with a stream of food if I’d build the shed. I’m now trying to figure out how to make a pop rivet gun work.

    It’s about now that I can see why non-traditional divisions of labour aren’t always advantageous. 😉

    The gun doesn’t work nearly as well as the one I saw on YouTube.

  15. [A quick look at Sean’s costings seems to indicate a bit of double counting.

    If you are paying an employee $X per annum you do not pay holiday pay on top of that. It is part of the annual wage.]

    BZZT fail.

    I didn’t double count holiday pay, I added 4 weeks of BS Union “Leave Loading”(look it up) of 17.5%

    Why you need to pay an employee extra for not being there is beyond me

  16. I was speaking to a science teacher mate yesterday. Apparently the sun has a life span of another 4.5 billion years.

    At the end of its time it will begin to expand and engulf all the planets in its solar system. But here’s the catch?

    Before it starts to expand, every planet will freeze over.

    So there you go – problem to global warming will solve itself 😈

  17. [Thanks. When I asked for “significance” I only meant “is it significant”? Obviously the answer is No.]

    Well, it is a milestone in the observable solar cycle. Also, the “activity” of the Sun has been historically lowish over the last cycle, which can tie into arguments about AGW.

    Now the Earths magnetic poles flipping over will definitely be significant when it happens again. 🙂 Watch for all the scary websites where people interprate that as the Earth, actually, doing a physical end for end flip over. 🙂

  18. @Sean/929

    Perhaps their bosses shouldn’t get paid while they are not there either.

    And more often than not, bosses are not usually at work, due to meetings with clients etc.

  19. [imacca,

    I blame the Carbon Tax.]

    LoL!

    You know GG, with that attitude, i can think of some websites where you would fit right in and achieve instantaneous popularity. 🙂

  20. Tisme

    Don’t you believe people are entitled to holidays?

    Your Monkey wants to give wealthy people a free $75k to stay home and look after the bub!

    How well are you going 😯

  21. 929

    Leave loading exists because many workers do some work that earns penalty rates and penalty rates are not paid on leave and so leave loading exists to compensate for that. It would be fairer to calculate the leave loading based on the amount of penalty rate work done but that would be more complicated. It also acts as an incentive to use up all the leave.

  22. It is irrelevant what Francis is like.

    He is an elected dictator-for-life. This situation inevitably generates court-politics, a lack of accounability and a lack of transparency.

    If he gets too uppity someone in the Curia will top him.

  23. [They are not always correct.]

    Who was the Bludger that predicted the exact date Rudd would be reinstated as PM?

    Who was the Bludger that predicted the Greens vote of 8% at the election?

    😀

  24. Fancy someone on only $100k a year supporting the coalition. After tax you would only have enough to pay for two kids to go to a half decent private school. I suppose it is an ok income as a second income, while the main bread winner was raking in a decent salary. No wonder you have to DIY renos. A $5k for bathroom reno would only pay for a real coalition supporters toilet pedestal and cistern replacement.

    Also a real coalition supporter wouldn’t whinge about an employees’ wage and on costs. They would look at the profit they would bring in.

    I hear a lot of people like you (Howard’s asperants), despising the unions because they are doing it tough in their own businesses and are envious of the good the unions do for their members. All they can do is vote coalition as their vengeance and splitting the nose in the process.

  25. GG
    As I demonstrated clearly on here many times, some time ago, George Pell is an evil human being. He has knowingly done evil things to many people who have had unspeakable things done to them by priests, who were protected and placed in positions to continue their depravity by Pell and the Church of which he is a member. These facts are known and absolutely incontrovertible. Pell himself has apologised for the evil things he has done. He therefore admits his own evil nature. He did nothing to change his evil behaviour until he was forced to do so by events which he did his utmost to prevent happening.

    As long time bludgers will remember, you descended into a foul, revolting, disgusting stream of abuse at me when I pointed out these things, with detailed testimony from Pell’s victims, some time ago on this forum. You are a truly sick human being. I have a strong feeling that you are in denial of some painful episodes in your past. Has Pell apologised to you for your suffering yet?

    I feel sorry for you, but I am sure that Pell and your sky fairy won’t help.

    All the best for the new year.

    MD

  26. Well, that’s two correct predictions Centre. Now tell us those you have gotten wrong and don’t say there aren’t any. We all get some wrong, which was my point above.

  27. 😆 @ 947

    Gary I can honestly say that I have been more right than wrong and it can be proven with my posts.

    You only really have to be more right than wrong on an average basis because NOBODY can be right all the time.

  28. Tony Abbott quip overheard on French ski slope:

    “The icicles on my nuts at the moment prove that global warming is crap…heh…heh…”

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