Seat of the week: Grey

The seat which covers most of the geographical area of South Australia has typified Labor’s decline in regional areas by transforming from safe Labor to safe Liberal status since the early 1990s.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Grey has covered the bulk of South Australia’s land mass since the state was first divided into electorates in 1903, and it currently encompasses much the same territory as it did on its creation. The state’s eastern regions north of the Riverland were at times accommodated by Wakefield, but Grey has at all times accommodated the state’s west together with the “iron triangle” cities of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie. Labor-voting Whyalla is the electorate’s largest centre with a population of around 22,000, while increasingly marginal Port Augusta and Port Pirie together with strongly conservative Port Lincoln on the lower Eyre Peninsula each have populations of slightly over 13,000. About 60 per cent of the electorate’s population is scattered through the remainder, the strongest concentration being in the rural conservative Yorke Peninsula. The latter area was added to the electorate from Wakefield when South Australia’s representation was reduced from 12 seats to 11 in 2004.

Grey’s industrial centres once made it a reliable seat for Labor, but their decline over recent decades has effected a decisive shift to the Liberals. Labor held the seat for all but one term between 1943 and 1993, the exception being after the landslide defeat of 1966. Laurie Wallis recovered the seat for Labor in 1969 and retained it by margins of 563 votes in 1975 and 65 votes in 1977, surviving on the latter occasion in the face of an unfavourable redistribution, and bequeathed the seat to Lloyd O’Neil in 1983. The turning point arrived in 1993, when the addition of the Clare Valley (since transferred to Wakefield) and the retirement of O’Neil opened the way for Barry Wakelin to win the seat for the Liberals on the back of a 4.3% swing. The Liberals’ position has been strengthening ever since, helping Wakelin to achieve swings of 6.4% in 1996, 1.9% in 2001 and 3.2% in 2004, with a correction of only 0.5% to Labor in 1998. Wakelin’s retirement in 2007 combined with the overall swing to Labor cut the margin that year from 13.8% to 4.4%, but the Liberal ascendancy has since been firmly re-established by successive swings of 6.7% and 2.4% in 2010 and 2013. The member since 2007 has been Rowan Ramsey, who runs a farming property at Buckleboo on the Eyre Peninsula.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,234 comments on “Seat of the week: Grey”

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  2. confessions

    I am amazed they gave Stott Despoja a position although as already said I think it’s a good appointment as well.

  3. Always loved this story (although it’s a sad one, too…)

    Vivien Leigh, whilst married to Olivier, started an affair with Peter O’Toole, who was their house guest.

    One evening, Olivier started talking to O’Toole about his ‘intentions’ regarding his wife. Both being actors, it quickly deteriorated into both of them playing roles – Olivier the concerned and disapproving father grilling the suitor about his prospects.

    Finally, Vivien Leigh threw open the door, saying, “Will one of you take me to bed?”

  4. guytaur@852

    zoomster

    Speaking of body parts great news about the stem cell kidney.

    My mother died last week due to inevitable complications of a donor kidney after several years of quality living.

    Good to see some science fiction starting its way to becoming science fact.

    Sorry to hear about your mum. My sincere condolences.

  6. Guytaur

    I am also sorry to hear about your mother

    My father died of kidney disease 30plus years ago at a time when even dialysis was rationed. My father being over 60 was not “important enough” for dialysis, something about which I remain bitter.

  7. Tom the first and best,

    [When will he start the excommunication of publicly Catholic free market fundamentalists for idolatry?]

    Your very keen interest in things theological has reminded me of a joke I heard the other day

    A particular parish priest was notorious for inveigling hapless parishioners, who were in the possession of the requisite skills, to do maintenance jobs for him (gratis) around the presbytery.

    Anyway, his latest victim is a parishioner who, by trade, is a painter.

    The parish priest provides him with paint and brushes and sets him to work painting the outside of the presbytery, whilst he is in the church hearing confessions. However, the incredulous parishioner takes one look at the quantity of paint provided and concludes that, in no way, is it sufficient to finish the job. But, not wishing to get on the priest’s bad side and thus risk eternal damnation, he gets stuck into the task.

    After a while, the frustrated parishioner has nearly run out of paint and has only finished half of the presbytery. What is he to do? Then, a tiny voice in his head advises him to “water what’s left of the paint”. He reckons it could be the devil speaking to him, but he doesn’t care, as he just wants to finish this job and get off to the TAB to place a few bets, as good Catholics do. So, he waters the paint and completes his duty to the faith.

    However, just as he is finishing, an almighty downpour of rain occurs. It is so heavy, it makes Noah’s flood look like the forty years of drought. To his horror, he notices that the torrential downpour has erased the section of paint that he had watered! Fearing eternal hellfire for his sin, the prodigal parishioner trudges very penitentially into the church and joins the queue at the confession box.

    Eventually, it’s his turn, and he proceeds to confess to the parish priest his wicked deed.

    Surprisingly, the parish priest adopts a very pastoral tone and grants him forgiveness and absolution, which leaves the painter totally gobsmacked.

    “But…but…but…” stammers the painter, “is that it, Father…am I off the hook?”

    “No way, my son”, replies the priest. “Your penance is to take the amount of money you usually waste on the horses, and use it to buy me enough paint to finish the job properly!”

    “So, my child…REPAINT!!!! AND THIN NO MORE!!!”

  8. mikehilliard @ 902
    [I am amazed they gave Stott Despoja a position]

    Her husband Ian Smith and Alexander Downer are business partners. Smith was a former Lib advisor.

    The third partner is former Labor senate heavyweight Nick Bolkus, which tells you something about how politics really works, IMHO.

  11. [“@MRowlandMP: Abbott Govt spends “a few thousands dollars” on 1st 100 Days pamphlets while they cut small grants to multicultural groups #auspol”]

    O Noes… not the multicultural budget! Now they’ll have to fund their own leftie agenda.

  12. slothy@908

    I had no idea of that.

    I like the company blurb –

    [The principals’ appreciation of sensitive and complex issues enables Bespoke Approach to provide strategic advice, factoring in regional government policies and attitudes, cross-border sensitivities and prevailing public opinion]

    Makes you wonder about Downer’s comments earlier this year regarding Indonesia, or was that more to do with his idea of what the ‘prevailing public opinion’ might be.

  13. Has Abbott gone to meet with holden workers yet. Before the election, he was stalking every factory in Ausfralia with his flouro vest.

  14. SBY must feel as though the bogan renters have moved in next door, with leaf blowers, trail bikes, smokey autumn leaf piles, and frequent loud screaming matches in the backyard.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/tony-abbott-blames-jakarta-for-rise-in-asylum-boat-arrivals/story-fn9hm1gu-1226783857415

    This is getting to the point of being dangerous for Australia.

    Abbott is a juvenile – everything is someone else’s ‘fault’. refugees are an intractable problem everywhere in the world, and people are going to try to get to countries that are signatories of the refugee convention and where they and their families will have prospects of a good future.

    The latest news about how we as a nation are dehumanising and mistreating people is a national disgrace. see: http://www.amnesty.org.au/refugees/comments/33587/ . we hear stories about 0.5 L per day of water rations in the tropics; 50% miscarrige rate; etc – and now abbott sacks the health advisers for speaking up, and this bogan nation of racists (even labor ‘pragmatists’ and anti-muslim loons like some here) is unmoved. Recent research has found the richer many people get, the more greedy, self-centred and selfish they get also. It appears to work for nations as well. At times I think Australians are, as nation, a pack of pricks who deserve abbott as their PM.

    The last time I went to a christmas mass a decade or so ago, I admired the priest in a leafy liberal seat denouncing ruddocks policies and reminding them that Jesus was a refugee into egypt – I hope this message goes out again. hopefully the new pope will give abbott a call and remind him and tell him to stop being such a Greg Hunt.

  16. I just read the para’s above about the seat of Grey. I had a most interesting NYE on Buckleboo Station a number of years ago.

  25. Sheridan’s article claiming that SBY is prepared to put aside hurt feelings and sign up to peace with Abbott omits one extremely important fact.

    SBY is now a “lame duck” president (in the US sense) and his party is behind in the opinion polls. Any agreement he might sign with Abbott could be torn up by a new administration that is not favourably inclined towards Australia – and Abbott should know all about tearing up undertakings by a former government.

    Abbott’s outburst yesterday telling Indonesia to pull its finger out to stop the boats could have been mentioned in Sheridan’s article today, however it would have ruined all he was saying. That news was finally posted less than an hour ago on the Oz website by another writer (only a day late), the delayed timing presumably to avoid upsetting Sheridan.

  26. Acerbic Conehead

    Thanks for putting a smile on my dial. 🙂

    Not hot yet. Wednesday the hot spell starts here in Melbourne. Expecting 40 on Thursday.

  28. [The former South Australian senator’s landed the job in a move The Australian newspaper reports could be seen as a move to counter the criticism the federal government wore when it overturned the appointment of former Victorian Labor premier Steve Bracks as Consul-General in New York.]

    Strangely, considering the attitude of the current govt, I have read that Mesma is a strong promoter of female equality , so this is not as surprising as it seems.

    I’d feel warmer towards Mesma if she would stop laughing so hard at Pyne’s snide jokes.

  30. “@SenatorWong: From reading the news today, it’s clear Tony & Joe & co really think the press gallery and public will believe their pantomime.”

  31. Abbott in 2010 the educated geek – Not 😀

    [Michael Wyres
    “Do we really want to invest $50b of hard earned taxpayers money on what is essentially a video entertainment system?” TA 19/12/2010 #auspol]

  32. Citizen

    I keeping changing my mind as fo what Abbott and his flunkies’ strategy is re Indonesia.
    Could it be a simple case of they dont bloody know either!

  34. guytaur

    [“@SenatorWong: From reading the news today, it’s clear Tony & Joe & co really think the press gallery and public will believe their pantomime.”]

    Well it has worked for them so far

  35. guytaur@918

    @_elliottrj: President GW Bush censored 9/11 report to protect Saudi sponsorship – if any of this is true, massive: http://t.co/SJanOoSmHs

    Well he certainly quietly got the Bin Laden family out of the US after 911.

    Plus they were warned many times that OBL was planning an attack, but the various agencies bungled it all.

  36. We know this, but for idological reasons, Hockey/Abbott will continue to ignore it.

    [The main problem isn’t that government spending rose, but that tax revenue fell away. The independent Parliamentary Budget Office estimates that most of this deficit is due to falling tax revenue, not rising spending, and that over two-thirds of the fall in revenue is due to the personal tax cuts between 2003 and 2008.

    Back in 2004, the top tax rate kicked in at an income of $70,000. If this threshold had just been increased in line with the CPI, it would now be around $90,000. Instead, the top threshold is now $180,000. That’s a huge increase in the level at which the top tax rate cuts in, much larger than would have been needed to compensate for “bracket creep” from inflation. Tax rates were cut too, with the top rate falling from 47% to 45%, and the rate below that coming down from 42% to 37%.

    Most of the big cuts were implemented by John Howard’s government, particularly in his final term of office. But Labor’s promise in the 2007 election to more or less match the Coalition’s tax cut pledge led to big cuts in 2008, as well.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/16/to-get-the-australian-budget-on-track-its-time-to-wind-those-tax-cuts-back?CMP=twt_gu

  40. That sacking of health advisers to Asylum Seekers is stupid. Not only does it lack compassion. it also will cost more as damages will have to be paid out due to adverse health outcomes.

  44. The Abbott government has set itself several traps in its first hundred days, and it would have to be particularly adroit to avoid blowback from these. So far, it hasn’t shown any signs of the nimble footwork required.

    Firstly, it’s holding a RC into pink batts whilst demanding that ‘red tape’ be slashed. The only way there can be any adverse findings against the former government is if the RC decides that there should have been more government regulation of the industry.

    So either Abbott and Co will have to roll back on the red tape rhetoric or ignore the recommendations made by the RC. (Of course, if the RC finds that the former government is blameless, then their recommendations are going to be ignored anyway, so we get back to — why hold an RC to begin with?)

    Secondly, Pyne has justified his backing away from Gonski with his rejection of the idea of ‘Canberra control and command’ and reiterated that educational delivery is the task of the states. Yet he has a (very scanty) set of policies on education which can only be delivered via the States.

    Either Pyne won’t be able to deliver on his agenda or he’ll have to start commanding and controlling.

    And I’m sure these others.

    Those journos who glibly tell us that these are just teething pains, that the government will learn from its mistakes and that It Will Be All Over By Christmas ignore the ways in which this government is setting itself up for further falls – and ones entirely of its own making, which it will not be able to buckpass to Labor.

  48. guytaur

    Just caught up with your news and offer you my deepest sympathies

    My Mum passed away in August and yes Christmas will be hard with one empty seat at the table.

    Your Mum would want you to go on as you normally would have.

    She will be at peace!

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