Seat of the week: Grey

The seat which covers most of the geographical area of South Australia has typified Labor’s decline in regional areas by transforming from safe Labor to safe Liberal status since the early 1990s.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Grey has covered the bulk of South Australia’s land mass since the state was first divided into electorates in 1903, and it currently encompasses much the same territory as it did on its creation. The state’s eastern regions north of the Riverland were at times accommodated by Wakefield, but Grey has at all times accommodated the state’s west together with the “iron triangle” cities of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie. Labor-voting Whyalla is the electorate’s largest centre with a population of around 22,000, while increasingly marginal Port Augusta and Port Pirie together with strongly conservative Port Lincoln on the lower Eyre Peninsula each have populations of slightly over 13,000. About 60 per cent of the electorate’s population is scattered through the remainder, the strongest concentration being in the rural conservative Yorke Peninsula. The latter area was added to the electorate from Wakefield when South Australia’s representation was reduced from 12 seats to 11 in 2004.

Grey’s industrial centres once made it a reliable seat for Labor, but their decline over recent decades has effected a decisive shift to the Liberals. Labor held the seat for all but one term between 1943 and 1993, the exception being after the landslide defeat of 1966. Laurie Wallis recovered the seat for Labor in 1969 and retained it by margins of 563 votes in 1975 and 65 votes in 1977, surviving on the latter occasion in the face of an unfavourable redistribution, and bequeathed the seat to Lloyd O’Neil in 1983. The turning point arrived in 1993, when the addition of the Clare Valley (since transferred to Wakefield) and the retirement of O’Neil opened the way for Barry Wakelin to win the seat for the Liberals on the back of a 4.3% swing. The Liberals’ position has been strengthening ever since, helping Wakelin to achieve swings of 6.4% in 1996, 1.9% in 2001 and 3.2% in 2004, with a correction of only 0.5% to Labor in 1998. Wakelin’s retirement in 2007 combined with the overall swing to Labor cut the margin that year from 13.8% to 4.4%, but the Liberal ascendancy has since been firmly re-established by successive swings of 6.7% and 2.4% in 2010 and 2013. The member since 2007 has been Rowan Ramsey, who runs a farming property at Buckleboo on the Eyre Peninsula.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,234 comments on “Seat of the week: Grey”

Comments Page 16 of 25
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  3. [Australian PM rounds on ‘singularly unhelpful’ Indonesia – ]

    He has the diplomatic skills of a china shop bull. You’d almost think Abbott has shares in a people smuggling operation the way he seems to be going out of his way to scuttle “stop the boats” with these constant attacks on Indonesia.

  4. [You’d almost think Abbott has shares in a people smuggling operation the way he seems to be going out of his way to scuttle “stop the boats” with these constant attacks on Indonesia.]

    Perhaps he realizes he can’t stop them, so he needs an excuse?

  5. Mexicanbeemer,

    “I would like the government to seek to invest where it can identify a ROI for its investment as i think could haev been achieved by working with Holden”

    GM Detoit made a deal with China to produce a new Commodore.
    Done and done long before this.

    I could say something about unions here but it will upset people. Also the carbon tax adding $450 to production of each car.

  6. Well when being heckled one day at a rally by a protester who bellowed “Come on Gough, tell us everything you know, it won’t take long”, Gough is alleged to have replied, “Why don’t I tell everyone what we both know, it won’t take any longer”.
    Could be apocryphal and I think it came from Barry Cohen but still it makes me laugh.

  8. Henry@756

    Well when being heckled one day at a rally by a protester who bellowed “Come on Gough, tell us everything you know, it won’t take long”, Gough is alleged to have replied, “Why don’t I tell everyone what we both know, it won’t take any longer”.
    Could be apocryphal and I think it came from Barry Cohen but still it makes me laugh.

    Sounds like the sort of thing Gough would say.

  9. Abbott is setting out to blame his failure on stopping the boats on Labor and Indonesia. So he’s getting out the megaphone for the 2GB crowd (while ostensibly telling Indonesia to take their finger out). And the point of reintroducing TPVs, which had no impact on asylum boat arrivals when they were in operation, is to plame continued boat arrivals on Labor and the Greens for not passing the legislation.

  10. The 100 days of the Abbott government is excellent.

    However the Gonski shambles has stuffed it. I’m still gobsmacked as to why the relevant parties could not see the minefield they created. After the Gillard government deceptions and backflips … it defies comprehension why the Abbott government went down that track.

    Personally, I’m inclined to think Mr Abbott’s media/political advisors are quite out of touch. He’s a loyal man though.

  14. [The 100 days of the Abbott government is excellent.]

    It is indeed, for we are that much closer to this govt being a one term govt.

    The polls show that only rusted on partisan Liberal voters such as yourself are pleased with how this govt has turned out so far. 🙂

  15. Prettyone @755 – I call bullshit on your $450 Carbon tax component on car prices. Show us how this number was worked out. For example if power costs contribute about 12% of the cost of a new car that would do it. It’s another Liberal lie – double the number someone first thought of.

  18. GM have already long stated stated that the carbon tax adds only $45 to the cost of a locally produced car so that canard is dismissed straightaway.

  20. “The polls show that only rusted on partisan Liberal voters such as yourself are pleased with how this govt has turned out so far. :):

    Well, Ms Gillard had the “first woman PM” thing going for her for quite a while. Then the mistakes. In the end if Mr Shorten had not seen sense she should destroyed the ALP for a very long time. ALP owes a debt of gratitude to Mr Shorten, but it took until August 2013.

    Abbott government is only 3 months old.

  21. Steve –

    And the point of reintroducing TPVs, which had no impact on asylum boat arrivals when they were in operation, is to plame continued boat arrivals on Labor and the Greens for not passing the legislation.

    Yes. I’m not quite sure what the ALP were thinking in disallowing TPVs.

    The ALP brains trust still needs a fair bit of reprogramming.

  22. I must say the first 100 days of both the Abbott Government and the Shorten Opposition have gone far better than I expected. Abbott, Hockey, Bishop, Morrison and Pyne have all inflicted severe damage on themselves, each other and the government. Abbott is clearly not intellectually up to the job, so they are stuck with the mess he has created unless they are willing to go through the trauma and humiliation of a leadership crisis next year. And there’s no clear successor – Hockey is an idiot, Turnbull is discredited, Morrison is too nasty. It would probably have to be Bishop, and she’s been a below-expectations performer as well. Who would have predicted that by the end of the year Labor would be back in front in the polls? I don’t think anyone did.

  23. @prettyone/770

    Gillard had stable polling for a while after she was in, Abbott did not.

    That is Fact

    Abbott may be 3 month’s old, but he has done crap all.

  24. I am still intrigued as to how the number of $450 was derived? I don’t really think Liberal boffins just made the number up.It has to look plausible to a non-expert who might think about it but doesn’t look too closely. So they wouldn’t be believed if they said the number was, say, $4,500. It would probably be derived from estimates of the carbon component at each step in the delivery chain. They would take the top end of the range of each estimate and add them up, not taking account of any ability to pass on costs of claim tax deductions or any compensation that may have been claimable. It would involve a lot of double (quintuple?) counting. The number of 450 is still a bold-faced lie. It’s purpose is to deceive, not inform.

  25. Re the Gillard/Rudd thing
    ________________
    Lets leave the past to bury itself shall we……..
    I was a fan of Rudd’s when he defeated Howard,but became alarmed at stories from insiders who I trusted as to his contol-freakery

    I thought Gillard might succeed but hated her right-wing backers and the mafia from NSW….(and btw what did cause an ambitious young man like Arbib to go so suddenly?….strange that )

    I never thought the sexist camopaigns against Gillard would succed but they did ..”Ditch the Bitch” worked it seems

    So in the end I hoped Rudd could save the furniture…but had bo great feeling for him….I suspect many here felt like me too….

    Perhaps many PBs felt this way in the end
    Now it’s a new game…I find shorten has all the zest of cold mashed potato but it might work
    On the bright side I never imagined Abbott would be so bad and annoy so many so soon

    I am rather enjoying that and just love the tone of anxiety in the voices of the shock jocks and some callers who wonder why it’s all going wrong

    I even got onto one such program and had fun pretending to be a very disappointed Abbott mam…evoked some funny responses too…so that feeling out there and running

  26. [Abbott government is only 3 months old.]

    Exactly. Only 3 months to lose this level of voter support. The worst of any newly elected government ever.

    🙂

  28. For example, I know a number of small businesses, Why hasn’t Abbott stepped in to help the backbone of our economy?

    The 100 days, he has done crap all, to help each an every community that usually has a business.

  29. [Who would have predicted that by the end of the year Labor would be back in front in the polls? I don’t think anyone did.]

    Nope, nobody did.

  32. Schnappi

    Did you see this the other day?

    [His name is Christian Porter. In 2010, having just turned 40, he was both the treasurer and attorney-general of Western Australia and heir-apparent to Colin Barnett as Premier. Last year, Porter turned away from state stardom and sought Liberal Party pre-selection for the federal seat of Pearce. It was a contest whose outcome was far from certain. But he brought a formidable resume, is a former national debating champion, and is extremely funny. It’s a rare gift in politics.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/christian-porter-meet-australias-future-prime-minister-20131211-2z6bx.html#ixzz2nXwaly00

    Anyhow night all

  33. Abbott has had a truly appalling first 100 days. You can tell just how bad they are by the fact that all the usual concern trolls are back posting here again, spouting their usual monomaniacal claptrap, trying to put the blame on various past leaders of the ALP.

    Anything to deflect attention from the appalling performance of PM Credlin and her sock puppet Abbott.

    Regular as f*cking clockwork …

  34. There is always an adjustment period for a new government. Tony Abbott may yet find his feet. They managed to find a strategy to make him look viable as opposition leader, they may yet manage to do it to make him look viable as a Prime Minister.

    I would not put much faith in Bill Shorten if I were you. My gut tells me that he will never be Prime Minister. He seems too small, metaphysically speaking.

  35. Porter will not be Liberal leader any time this side of the next Labor PM.

    Sorry to burst expectation bubbles, but the reality is that there are a number of current Liberal MPs who would naturally see themselves as, and rightly expect to be next in the pecking order when it comes to the next Lib leader.

  36. [Who would have predicted that by the end of the year Labor would be back in front in the polls? I don’t think anyone did.]

    I think/know I said several times WTTE he’d become “a very unpopular PM very quickly”, but never thought it’d be instantaneous. I really hope the WA senate re-run result means he never gets the upper house. Watch the $$$ the coal and mining lobbies and murdoch media put into this campaign – if the result is 2 lib: 3 labor: 1 green (is this likely?) or even 3: lib: 2 labor: 1 green then I think abbott will have no option other than adopting an ETS or going to DD election. It will also stop him delivering the full IPA wish-list – which is still my great fear. If abbott gets the numbers in the senate, I think he will go all out amd decide to be a one term government that undoes every social (& maybe even liberal) democratic measure since federation.

    what’s the feeling about how the WA senate re-run will go?

  38. 786

    The WA Senate rerun will unfortunately not return 3 ALP and a Green. There will be a maximum of 2 ALP and a Green. There may however be only 2 Liberals as their vote may go down enough to get a micro party or Palmer Senator elected instead of the third Liberal.

  39. confeessions 765

    Not into arguments, but see no squeaky clean LNP to replace abbott,except porter ,who is also has credits,am a Labor full member

  40. I agree with TTFaB – the best left/right split from WA we could hope for would be 3/3, which would be much better than the 2/4 from the 7 September election, and was looking like wishful thinking until the polls decisively turned.

    But the Libs should probably be slightly worried that PUP might well take their 3rd spot.

  41. AFR take…
    [The Abbott government has abandoned its target of returning the budget to surplus in four years, blaming the “profligacy” of its Labor predecessor.

    Ahead of Tuesday’s release of the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, Prime Minister Tony Abbott indicated a 2016-17 surplus was unrealistic.

    “We said we would return the budget back to surplus at least as quickly as Labor had proposed. What we are discovering the more we dive deeply into the budget is the extent of Labor’s fiscal disaster,’’ he said….

    It is understood the decision to proceed with the infrastructure spending caused some disagreement within government.]
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/abbott_gives_up_on_surplus_0Sg3G7uDCNFiVWnSbhb63L

  42. @Laocoon/791

    Yup, politicizing the federal budget, the blame game continues.

    So, Abbott, where are those jobs you promised? or Are you just going to blame?

  43. 790

    I think the PUP will find getting preferences (which they would need to win) harder than they did in September because they are noticeably bigger and more powerful than most of the micro parties and thus I think the micro parties will decide that they need to be further down the preference lists to give the micro parties a chance at a preference harvesting victory.

  44. RT

    What a laugh!

    You know the coalition would swap Abbott for Shorten in a heartbeat if they thought they could do so seamlessly.

    Abbott won’t “find his feet” ….. he is so totally on the nose to the electorate.

    Those that didn’t vote for him know he’s an incompetent fool, and probably half (or more) of those who did vote for him now think likewise.

    You can talk him up as much as you like but as you know in your desperate heart, you’re pissing into the wind, and have a very wet face. So sad, sucker!

  46. The Pope hits the spot.

    “Trade Unions have been an essential force for social change without which a semblance of a decent and humane society is impossible under capitalism.”

    Pope Francis

  48. Prettyone

    I suspect you have misread the article regarding the new Holden Commodore as it states that the plan was to jointly build it here and in China.

    And the Carbon Tax was according to Holden $45 per car, not sure where the $450 comes from.

  49. For WA rerun, we know with these things that we have to wait until we see the group ticket preferencing and the number of parties before getting too carried away with predictions. But 2 Lib 2 ALP 1 Green 1 PUP/other would be the least surprising to me at this stage.

  50. I missed this plan in the election campaign…
    [The federal government is planning to end the historical role of state governments in operating universities.

    Federal Education Minister ­Christopher Pyne is in talks with the NSW government about assuming control over the governance of the state’s 10 universities, which would be the first stage of a national takeover.

    Under the plan, which is being negotiated, laws governing each NSW ­university would be passed by the federal Parliament and replace state acts.]
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/feds_plan_takeover_of_universities_atFDANOyP4LSFa6scaJdgI

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