BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,310 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 47
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  2. Re: McTernan – his “potty mouth”, as ST quaintly put it, is a total non-story.

    The real issue with McTernan is that he was a complete failure.

    Yes, the political/media situation in Australia is dire and heavily, unfairly, weighted against the ALP, so a media strategist for the ALP is always going to struggle, but everything McTernan touched turned to shit for the ALP, and the fact he was unable to get any positive messages out about the ALP says a lot.

    As to why he was hired/remained hired despite being obviously incapable of doing the job he was meant to do … I suspect that’s partly McTernan’s own self belief and forceful personality that managed to convince everyone around him that he was the bee’s knees and no one else could do better (and perhaps no one else could do better in the circumstances, we’ll never know), but also that the ALP were so desperate, and so devoid of how to turn the media landscape around that they were sold on the notion that they just needed to get tougher and tougher. Be hard as nails and ruthless, Thick of It style, and things would improve.

    That McTernan believed his own hype, or believed it enough to sell it to the ALP, despite the fact that his style was quite incompatible with Julia Gillard’s strengths … the ALP, in their desperation, had completely converted to messiah thinking. As was clear from subsequent events.

  3. Bugler@395

    I have wondered whether Abbott will come out and support a conscience vote on SSM, making him seem big and not afraid of differing opinions and would smash the stereotype of himself he, or at least his advisers, seem/ed to want to distance him/themselves from. Then again, it would possibly alienate his only supporters ATM, who, from experience, appear to largely be people who also believe Muslims are attempting to steal Christmas.

    I would greatly reassess my own view of Abbott if he did this but I’ll be highly surprised if it happens. The religious-moral hypocrite aspect runs very deep in our PM’s character and is one of the reasons why I long personally maintained he was unfit to be in parliament at all and should resign. Lately he seems to have toned it down a lot in an attempt to mainstream himself but I am not convinced he is capable of being genuinely liberal, in any sense, unless very heavily pushed. I would love to be proved wrong and will be suitably apologetic if so.

  9. Carbon targets can help UK ‘save £85bn a year’

    Britain could save £85bn a year if it meets its carbon targets, according to a study commissioned by the government’s climate advisers.

    As well as tackling global warming, a switch away from fossil fuels and an increase in energy efficiency would result in improved air quality, lower human health costs, lower energy bills, noise reduction, wildlife benefits, better quality water, less waste, less traffic congestion and fewer road accidents, the report by environmental consultancy Ricardo AEA said. It is published alongside the the review of the UK’s fourth carbon budget by the Committee on Climate Change, which said ministers should stick to plans to cut emissions by half in the mid-2020s.

  10. KB –

    but I am not convinced he is capable of being genuinely liberal

    I don’t think Bugler is arguing that this would be a sign of liberalism, but of political desperation, unicorning.

    I doubt Abbott would entertain SSM on its merits alone, but if he becomes convinced that a “stunt” to kick off an SSM debate unicorn would distract from other political woes, I think he has demonstrated that his passion to be in power overcomes any of his other values.

    Particularly if he was assured that a conscience vote on SSM would fail, as it almost certainly would fail with the representatives we have at the moment.

    Yes, yes, I know this logic could be applied to the last government as well. Perhaps my bias shows in thinking that the ALP went through the whole process of debating and changing its official position on the issue and making progress.

  13. [353
    guytaur

    “@latikambourke: Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop says the headline figure in next week’s mini-budget will be ‘Shocking.’ #MYEFO”]

    They’re softening us all up for an exaggeratedly bad forecast for which they intend to blame Labor.

    But they should be very careful. The LNP have no economic policy at all and their budget policy consists only of trying to cut spending. They will most likely do nothing but precipitate a recession – utterly useless Government in action.

  16. @Geoff/414

    You blaming Labor again, for a private business?

    Yet you are not Blaming Coalition Party for Holden/Toyota?

    Pathetic really.

  18. And delimiter lets rip —

    [Turnbull’s cost projection promises, his rollout speed promises, his technology choice promises; even his promises that the NBN Co Strategic Review would not be run by consultants; virtually all of his promises about the NBN were this morning flagrantly broken, and there were no answers to so many of the questions which the non-subservient elements of the media (those of us that are left) have about the NBN.]

    […Please believe me, once and for all, that I have lost any faith I had in Turnbull in his role as the Communications Minister and as a leader in Australia’s technology landscape. From now on Delimiter’s default position will be that the Minister is not acting in the best interests of Australia from a NBN perspective. ]

    […You can’t just delete 28 percent of Australian premises from a “National Broadband Network” and claim that you are going to complete the project “sooner”. You are not “delivering” the NBN, as Turnbull claimed this morning in a statement. You are delivering a remnant of the NBN. You are delivering a Lesser Broadband Network, or LBN.]

    […I must hold the Coalition in contempt for breaking all of its promises. Delimiter is, after all, an evidence-based site. And the evidence today is that the Coalition is not sincere about delivering super-fast broadband to all Australians.]

    http://delimiter.com.au/2013/12/12/please-accept-apologies-wrong-turnbull/

  19. And, of course:

    As Hockey knows, Mitsubishi told John Howard in 2007 it was leaving. It saved the announcement until after the federal election that year so as not to politicise it.

  28. Jackol 402 & 410,

    I agree with both accounts. However, there may be something in the ALP becoming increasingly supportive of it, despite the right faction being more dominant in this Parliament than the last, not that it’s really a factional issue (Bill Shorten himself coming out in support years ago).

    On McTernan, I’ve been a bit careful with assessments of him due to there being almost a mythology surrounding him, though I think his work really speaks for itself

    KB,

    I was largely musing on how Abbott has been softening his image. However, he never seemed to do it directly, it always had to come from someone else, like he was afraid both of his hard man image and of being seen as some kind of degenerate lesbian enabling, transgender sypathising, IVF approving yuppie. I will add that I am only suggesting Abbott support a conscience vote, not support it himself

  29. Considering that it is the incompetence of the Torie Government that will lead to us going into recession, their supporters should learn the value of silence.

  30. zoom

    [Turnbull’s cost projection promises, his rollout speed promises, his technology choice promises; even his promises that the NBN Co ]

    Talc a pathetic figure now. Almost as discredited as Hunt.

  32. [So am I right that the libs are going to spend 45 bill on building only 70% of a crap system. Doesn’t that make it, basically, as expensive as Labor’s, but a lot worse?]

    Correct. 🙁

    [410
    Jackol

    I doubt Abbott would entertain SSM on its merits alone, but if he becomes convinced that a “stunt” to kick off an SSM debate unicorn would distract from other political woes, I think he has demonstrated that his passion to be in power overcomes any of his other values.]

    David Marr said that there are two Abbotts – values Abbott and politics Abbott – and that every time there is a conflict between them politics Abbott always wins.

    He is only about power, the act of domination, to no real purpose. All else is subservient.

    The ultimate hollow man.

  37. http://delimiter.com.au/2013/12/12/please-accept-apologies-wrong-turnbull/

    [zoomster
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 3:10 pm | PERMALINK
    And delimiter lets rip —]

    Renai LeMay (delimited.com.au) has been a staunch supporter of Malcolm Turnbull.

    Over the past years he offered excuse after excuse for Turnbull’s BS.

    Interesting that LeMay has finally acknowledged we have been taken for a ride.
    —

    [Jackol
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 2:57 pm | PERMALINK
    Re: McTernan – his “potty mouth”, as ST quaintly put it, is a total non-story.]

    It’s not a non-story. It’s a shocking story. I want to know who recommended such a block-head to Gillard’s inner circle in late 2011.

    It seems he worked on Rudd’s 2007 campaign. If that’s what recommended him, Gillard should have been wary, given a drover’s dog would have won that campaign.

    And if his handling of the 2012 Australia Day fiasco was any indication of his ability at media management, then he should have been fired on the spot.

  39. Now Abbott is wiping Labor’s plan to give a pay rise to Aged Care Workers.

    They had been awarded a $1.00 per hour payrise and he is taking that back.

    However did we get to this?

  40. Triton,

    [Brandis on SSM decision in the Senate.]

    Which reminds me of the Timor-Leste thing. Inasmuch as you can’t give details about cases, I really don’t understand what Brandis is trying to achieve by saying the raids had nothing to do with the case. Umm… the people affected are all related to the case, the court case would adversely affect ASIS and ASIO, who conducted the raids and advised Brandis to allow it and despite saying WTTE of “noone involved in the case will have access to the information” the intelligence organisations clearly will.

    There’s protecting organisations under your command, like the High Court, etc, then there’s just insulting people by denying the obvious.

  41. If the Liberals wanted to not have their supply blocked, they could put up a referendum to remove the power of the Senate. The ALP should suggest and offer bipartisan support for such a referendum with the proviso that if the government refuses, the ALP will consider it a legitimate tactic to use against the current government.

  43. I see that Campbell Newman and Adam Giles were in the Gallery during QT.

    If they came to enjoy the love for a new LNP govt, I hope they learned something.

  44. Psephos

    [The Court has made clear that state/territory pseudo-marriage laws are not a path to marriage equality, but has made the correct path – federal legislation – easier.]

    I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, it is indeed useful that the HCA has ruled that marriage is not by definition “between a man and a woman” for any longer than the jurisdiction covering it declares it to be so limited, but it’s a blow to progress that a breach in the wall of homophobic resistance to SSM has for the moment been filled in.

    This has both the strength and the weakness of retaining it as a Federal issue in coming elections, though it makes it harder in practice to wedge those defending the existing rules.

    I imagine that if I were gay and keen on getting married to someone, I’d be bitterly disappointed, and so, IMO, on balance, this is a bad day for all who wish the polity would step aside and let those so moved to have their wish granted. It seems to me that this is something that means a lot to a few and costs the rest of us nothing at all to grant. Let us do that and move on.

  45. One thing t5hat blows the “high cost Australia” crap out of the water is Toyota exporting more cars than it sell locally.
    Something else to keep in mind if we stop making cars is

  46. just me

    [Right where Abbott wants them. Neutered. In full public view.]

    Yep. It surprises me as he was a bit of a ‘goer’ as a barrister.

  48. So fraudband is an even bigger fraud than we thought and this is before you factor in buying the copper from Telstra, lost economic opportunity and the eventual realization and expense of building the proper thing later.

    I had expected Turnbull to move in steps towards a proper NBN but he is running the other way.

    What a bunch of economic vandals.

    Worst government ever.

  50. [446
    CTar1

    Yep. It surprises me as he was a bit of a ‘goer’ as a barrister.]

    Such a promising run up…

    But a shocking delivery, and no follow through.

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